Is This Season Going To Happen for The British ???

A snowHead

@Aidanb, welcome to Snowheads!

A snowHead

I was told 2 weeks to stop the spread.... now a vaccine(s) is immanent, its been 8+ months and everyone is aware of the risks. Time to begin rolling back the most draconian restrictions IMHO.

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@garfmiller, imminent is a relative term. We know of one likely approved vaccine in 4 weeks time, but there won't be any protection until people are actually vaccinated. Probably well into 2021 before the risks change substantially. (More approved vaccines might help, but there will still be the same limited number of qualified staff actually administering those vaccines).

But having said that, if the current lockdown does its job it is conceivable (optimistically!) that case numbers and deaths will decline enough that milder restrictions can prevent them rising again until the benefit of vaccination allows further easing.

And - even more optimistically - the lockdown in France* might do the same and their restrictions might ease enough to allow skiing. Probably not worth putting any money on it yet though.

[*Other ski destinations are available, but similar issues.]

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@Mr.Egg, Exactly, Plus the death rate in the past is irrelevant to the future travel argument (And Belgium has a much higher death rate per capita). What matters is the current infection rate and it's trend. Currently the UK is doing far better on that measure than many Western European nations, Switzerland and the areas of France bordering it seem to be the epicentre of the plague at the moment.

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Good point @rob@rar, even the token vaccinations they are striving to do by the end of the year will give no benefit until February. Although that will have been an amazing achievement, first description of a new infectious agent to delivery of vaccinations in just 12 months.

And I agree @Mr.Egg, league tables of deaths are pretty meaningless. As the epidemiologists keep telling us, it is not until you can look back and work out excess deaths that the specific impact of Covid can be measured. There will be a lot like my late mother, whose final pneumonia was probably triggered by a very mild cold but if it had been this year could easily have been listed as a Covid death.

After all it is free

What is the COVID End-Game?

What if vaccines end up not effective at all, what if vaccines are only semi-effective on an annual basis (think flu shots), what if - - well there are so many variable "what ifs"?

Lockdowns only do so much for so long then its back to where we were and lockdowns create economic a social damage too. A complete eradication of the virus may never happen...

We know the risks. protect the vulnerable as best as possible - but let others ease back into normalcy.

@garfmiller,

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UK Travel Corridor list is due to be updated today at 5P. Where is the smart going on who is on/off?

@garfmiller, Probably no change for anywhere that matters. Plus we are not supposed to be travelling from the UK, so no real need for change, no airline is going to launch a travel service till post lockdown IMHO.

You know it makes sense.

At this point whether we ski or not this year won't be determined until after Christmas. And frankly, if we don't, no big deal. To be honest I haven't thought at all about skiing once, whereas normally I'd have already lined up a holiday and been obsessively checking the cams etc. Obviously there are lockdowns, but I do have real health concerns and tbh my job could be in jeopardy if this continues, as it depends on international events.

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@garfmiller, sorrz, I was being flippant.

It looks like the Pfizer virus is effective and there are good noises about the Oxford one. However, rolling these out to populations will take some time.

'Flu viruses are updated annually because the most prevalent 'flu virus changes seasonally, not because the vaccine is, in and of itself, less effective. This coronavirus (and the others that are known about) don't tend to change very quickly anyway, so this really isn't a huge concern, afaik, at this point.

Equally, afaik, the only virus that has been eradicated through human endeavours is smallpox; through a very broad international education and vaccination program. I don't think anyone's suggesting going to that effort for the 'Rona.

A snowHead

Last I heard covid has mutated several times so far

A snowHead

There are dozens and dozens of different strains which have been mapped using the virus' genome. There are two broad families of these strains, one of which has become more dominant across the world so I think it is assumed that one is marginally more infectious. Neither of the two broad families of the different strains, nor any of the individually mapped strains behaves differently in terms of the impact on patients who develop Covid.

Genomic mapping of the virus info here:
https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global

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@luigi, with all due respect, wouldn't you be better posting a question like that on "VirusHeads"? Twisted Evil

For the little that it's worth, my reading as of a few months ago was that the thinking (at least, as far as I read) was that such mutation was unlikely, although possible. But then, so is being struck by lightning*

There are a few properly knowledgeable SHs who might chip in with a more weighty answer.

* no suggestion included of any probabalistic equivalence between the two events.

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@luigi, from what I have read there is only one described mutation that actually changes the spike protein, and apparently that doesn't involve the parts of the protein targetted by the various vaccine candidates. But it has been a focus of attention for obvious reasons.

I have also read that those designing the various vaccines, aware of the theoretical possibility, have aimed to create immunogens that will elicit antibodies to multiple regions of the spike protein so that a mutation affecting one of these wouldn't block its protective function.

Those in the business of monitoring viruses say that SARS-CoV-2 is actually very stable compared with, for example, the influenza virus. But the vaccine designers can't predict the future, all they can do is make a best guess. It is certainly conceivable that at some point there will be a mutation that evades any particular vaccine response, and scientists will need to be alert to that.

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I really do think it's all going to hinge on whether UKers have to quarantine on return from the slopes. I can't see them staying shut all season, and I can't see the government keeping the lockdown going for longer than 2 weeks past it's current 2nd December end date. So if they can't stop us going out there, and we're allowed on the slopes, all there is as a barrier is the quarantine on return!

After all it is free

@Pastorius, That sounds like a pretty fair assessment to me, although the only other factor to consider is whether the French government allow holiday makers from outside France enter the country or whether they in effect, only allow French people to holiday in France this winter.
Re. UK quarantine, when only 10% actually do it (as opposed to the 70% who say they are following the rules....), I wonder how much of a deterrent it is....

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I might have an interesting dilemma in the next few weeks...

I have been full time carer for both my Parents for 5 years. Sadly, I lost my Father last week, but my Mother, 85, still needs my services almost full time. She has Parkinsons, which is currently causing very low blood pressure, and associated problems.

My local Council has announced that they are making arrangements to roll out the vaccine to priority groups as soon as it is approved.

As a social Carer, I would be eligible fairly early.

Do I ask for it as soon as possible, and risk any side effects that would impact on my Carer duties, or do I wait a few weeks until we know how well it is actually working.

With my Mother's current health, I would not ask for her to be given it until sure it was safe for her, but would prefer to keep shielding her.

Comments?

You know it makes sense.

I would get it, if I were you. Not sure waiting a few weeks will prove anything.

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@brianatab, I would get it. My wife may be eligible for it early in the roll out, as she is extremely clinically vulnerable. I’m hoping to get it as early as possible. Anything that will enable me to get to the Birthday Bash and PreBB. Confused

A snowHead

I’ll wait a while maybe, unless, as I guess may happen, airlines and countries will start to ask for proof of vaccination, then I’ll probably be somewhat forced to for work. Had covid-19 in the summer and it wasn’t that bad for me.

A snowHead

45,000 people had already gotten it. They've had a lot longer time for any side effects to surface

I don't see waiting a few more weeks will give you any more information, unless you're willing to wait for a couple more months. A few weeks isn't long enough for anything positive or negative.

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@brianatab, if you don’t want it, can I borrow your ID for a few days?

After all it is free

My view is simple. Unless you have proper medical grounds for not having the vaccine, then if you don't have it when offered you become liable for the cost of any subsequent care on the NHS should it be necessary. Might make some of the anti-vax nutters think twice about refusing the vaccine if it might come with a very large bill. Personally I would extend that to all vaccines offered on the NHS.

Does this view still hold with smokers/over weight people/drinkers and the associated illnesses that are well documented?

Let's add in all the sports injuries and driving accidents oh and the DIY ones too, .

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Is This Season Going To Happen for The British ???

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