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Is This Season Going To Happen for The British ???

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Yes, about time we had a holiday, come what may. A few more tens of thousands of dead people is neither here nor there now we'd buried 120,000, and routine NHS surgery delayed for another six months is well worth it.

IRONY ALERT! - Apparently some people didn't realise this was meant to be an ironic response to many of those posting with the premis that the 120,000 covid deaths, or 72,000 excess deaths, or 29,000 care home deaths are somehow not sifnificant in relation to the total population. And that all economic fallout from the pandemic could have been avoided if we'd just pressed on as usual - Something with which I disagree strongly.


Last edited by Poster: A snowHead on Mon 22-02-21 9:15; edited 4 times in total
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peerless ploughman wrote:
No but they are the ones most anti- leisure travel.


yes, that's because it is an opportunity to score points against Westminster.
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Kj82 wrote:
peerless ploughman wrote:
No but they are the ones most anti- leisure travel.


yes, that's because it is an opportunity to score points against Westminster.


Yes I think COVID has shown that having 4 political parties running various parts of the UK who hate each other doesn't lead to much good. People may not like the conservatives but pop over to Wales and see how 20 years of Labour rule has destroyed a country.
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LaForet wrote:
Yes, about time we had a holiday, come what may. A few more tens of thousands of dead people is neither here nor there now we'd buried 120,000, and routine NHS surgery delayed for another six months is well worth it.


100,000 have not died of COVID. 100,000+ have died within 28 days days of a positive COVID test. The metric is fundamentally flawed. An example, Larry King died in the US of sepsis having recovered from COVID but in the UK he would have been registered as a COVID death but he did not die of COVID.
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thefatcontroller wrote:
LaForet wrote:
Yes, about time we had a holiday, come what may. A few more tens of thousands of dead people is neither here nor there now we'd buried 120,000, and routine NHS surgery delayed for another six months is well worth it.


100,000 have not died of COVID. 100,000+ have died within 28 days days of a positive COVID test. The metric is fundamentally flawed. An example, Larry King died in the US of sepsis having recovered from COVID but in the UK he would have been registered as a COVID death but he did not die of COVID.


And another example, chap got killed in a car crash several months ago, had tested positive for covid so registered as a covid death.
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@thefatcontroller, +1. Particularly the very elderly with multiple health conditions, any one of which could have done the deed. Die of heart attack, stroke, dementia, aneurism etc, but with a CV test positive regardless of symptoms or impact on health, you go on the list for the 10 o'clock news.
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Sitter wrote:
thefatcontroller wrote:
LaForet wrote:
Yes, about time we had a holiday, come what may. A few more tens of thousands of dead people is neither here nor there now we'd buried 120,000, and routine NHS surgery delayed for another six months is well worth it.


100,000 have not died of COVID. 100,000+ have died within 28 days days of a positive COVID test. The metric is fundamentally flawed. An example, Larry King died in the US of sepsis having recovered from COVID but in the UK he would have been registered as a COVID death but he did not die of COVID.


And another example, chap got killed in a car crash several months ago, had tested positive for covid so registered as a covid death.


Is that actually true? Genuine question. If so, love to see a source.
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Handy Turnip wrote:
Sitter wrote:
thefatcontroller wrote:
LaForet wrote:
Yes, about time we had a holiday, come what may. A few more tens of thousands of dead people is neither here nor there now we'd buried 120,000, and routine NHS surgery delayed for another six months is well worth it.


100,000 have not died of COVID. 100,000+ have died within 28 days days of a positive COVID test. The metric is fundamentally flawed. An example, Larry King died in the US of sepsis having recovered from COVID but in the UK he would have been registered as a COVID death but he did not die of COVID.


And another example, chap got killed in a car crash several months ago, had tested positive for covid so registered as a covid death.


Is that actually true? Genuine question. If so, love to see a source.


As I understand it people can spend significant time in hospital and on ventilation prior to dying. These should be counted as dying from covid but they will be more than 28days of the positive test? So overall wouldn’t balance out?
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NickyJ wrote:
Handy Turnip wrote:
Sitter wrote:
thefatcontroller wrote:
LaForet wrote:
Yes, about time we had a holiday, come what may. A few more tens of thousands of dead people is neither here nor there now we'd buried 120,000, and routine NHS surgery delayed for another six months is well worth it.


100,000 have not died of COVID. 100,000+ have died within 28 days days of a positive COVID test. The metric is fundamentally flawed. An example, Larry King died in the US of sepsis having recovered from COVID but in the UK he would have been registered as a COVID death but he did not die of COVID.


And another example, chap got killed in a car crash several months ago, had tested positive for covid so registered as a covid death.


Is that actually true? Genuine question. If so, love to see a source.


As I understand it people can spend significant time in hospital and on ventilation prior to dying. These should be counted as dying from covid but they will be more than 28days of the positive test? So overall wouldn’t balance out?

There are two metrics 1) died within 28 days of a positive test and b) COVID mentioned on the death certificate.

For the latter to happen, the doctor who calls the death must consider COVID to be a significant factor in the death. The former will include the odd instance where someone died of something totally unrelated, but the chance of this happening is minuscule. If you look at the figures for the two, b is significantly higher than a.
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They word it as dying with covid, not necessarily of covid, and there are several measures of covid deaths, for example they also talk of deaths where covid is listed on the death certificate, but that doesn't necessarily mean they were tested for it, and I guess would include those that, like NickyJ says, have a gap greater than 28 days between test result and death.

Regarding the source of the example I gave, the accident was briefly reported in the local news, but I'm only aware of the test result due to knowing several staff members at the local hospital.
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The UK Gov't covid data website gives 2 figures for total deaths, one being deaths within 28 days of a positive test, the other deaths with covid on the death certificate.
Unfortunately the second figure is even larger than the first.
Though it will include many deaths where there were 2 or 3 other diseases or conditions on the certificate, additional to covid.
More light was shed on this in the radio programme More Or Less this morning. (Available on catch up.) It was argued that the best estimate of covid deaths internationally would be the excess of deaths during the pandemic, compared with the seasonal normal death rate for the same country.
This still doesnt make the UK data look much better, but it does make many other countries look worse.
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peerless ploughman wrote:
The UK Gov't covid data website gives 2 figures for total deaths, one being deaths within 28 days of a positive test, the other deaths with covid on the death certificate.
Unfortunately the second figure is even larger than the first.
Though it will include many deaths where there were 2 or 3 other diseases or conditions on the certificate, additional to covid.
More light was shed on this in the radio programme More Or Less this morning. (Available on catch up.) It was argued that the best estimate of covid deaths internationally would be the excess of deaths during the pandemic, compared with the seasonal normal death rate for the same country.
This still doesnt make the UK data look much better, but it does make many other countries look worse.


I don’t agree with that figure being used - you would end up including the deaths caused by the measure (suicides) and the lack of cancer and other treatments.
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thefatcontroller wrote:
LaForet wrote:
Yes, about time we had a holiday, come what may. A few more tens of thousands of dead people is neither here nor there now we'd buried 120,000, and routine NHS surgery delayed for another six months is well worth it.


100,000 have not died of COVID. 100,000+ have died within 28 days days of a positive COVID test. The metric is fundamentally flawed. An example, Larry King died in the US of sepsis having recovered from COVID but in the UK he would have been registered as a COVID death but he did not die of COVID.


Explain to me on what planet if you catch a disease which has all sorts of complications and you die from the complication it's not a result of the disease. Larry King dies of sepsis as a result of having COVID-19, and suggesting his death was not the result of COVID-19 and should not be registered as a COVID-19 deaths is either ignorant or highly disingenuous.

There was an article a few weeks ago on the BBC on a study that showed that around a third of people who have been hospitalised with COVID-19 are readmitted within five months and more than one in 10 died.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.15.21249885v1.full.pdf

None of these people are counted. The only really useful figure is the excess deaths from which there is no hiding, and also measures the people who have died as a result of the pandemic but not directly from the disease itself. For example a delayed cancer diagnosis etc.
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I don't think there's really a "best" way to count deaths TBH.
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@jabuzzard, whereas those cancer patient shouldn’t be included as they are deaths in direct result of the measures taken NOT as a result of the disease.
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@jabuzzard, My uncle was admitted to hospital with terminal cancer. He caught Covid in hospital, with a positive test. He recovered from Covid quite quickly, was moved to palliative care, and died of his cancer three weeks after his Covid test - so he will be one of the "died within 28 days of a positive Covid test" despite recovering from it, and dieing from the disease that caused his admission to hospital in the first place.
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jabuzzard wrote:
There was an article a few weeks ago on the BBC on a study that showed that around a third of people who have been hospitalised with COVID-19 are readmitted within five months and more than one in 10 died.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.15.21249885v1.full.pdf


Bearing in mind the average age of hospitalised Covid sufferers, many of these would have been of an age where regular hospitalisation is a fact of life. (My father, who didn't get Covid, was 88 with Dementia. He had been in Hospital on numerous (well into double figures) occasions over the last few years.)

The rate of 1 in 10 deaths over a 5 month period is actually lower than I might have expected. Figures for flu infections could well be similar.
Be interested to see a full comparison with previous years, under normal conditions, but suspect data is not available as not deemed neccessary for collection at the time.
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I think lockdown must be getting to people (to be fair it is to me), there isn't a lot of patience here.

The benefit of "death within 28 days of diagnosis" is simply that it creates reasonably self-consistent daily figures. Death certificates emerge after varying delays which can be quite long if a post-mortem is required. It may provide better numbers but they are unreliable in the last couple of weeks.

But as @peerless ploughman says, it is only excess deaths that is independent of any judgement about who qualifies. It will include someone whose death might have been preventable if not for Covid getting in the way of treatment - but that is as a direct result of Covid. But conversely, someone in poor health who had a large risk anyway of dying from their next infectious disease won't be counted if their equivalents would have died from flu in previous years.
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Journalist writes article on her Dad dying of COVID when there was no positive test. It was assumed he had died of COVID.

BEL MOONEY: Dad died of a chronic illness but it was put down as Covid

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9279767/BEL-MOONEY-dad-died-chronic-illness-hes-officially-Covid-victim.html
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My uncle died in a care home.
He died of old age and his body just gave up in the end.
He didn't have CV, he was never tested for CV, the home has somehow managed to have zero CV in the whole pandemic.

The Doctor said
"I'll put Covid down, that is the way to get the body through the system as quickly as possible so that you can get on and arrange a funeral, we are doing that all the time at the moment"
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Why is everyone suddenly so fixated on the measure used to record deaths in a pandemic? OK, go for excess deaths (~75,000) if for some reason a person dying while having covid as well but possibly it not being contributory (~122,000) doesn't suit you. Or go for excess deaths in care homes (~29,000 in first wave). Or whatever.

And there are as many individual reports of people not being recorded as dying of COVID by relatives who thought they did, as there are the other way. These don't really prove anything.

It's as if people are on a search for some measure that shows all these deaths aren't really significant. As if the NHS wasn't overwhelmed and didn't actually have to stop elective surgery because everyone was treating COVID patients. Well, they are significant, and it did happen.

The concern now is that we don't do a repeat of summer 2020 when the CRG types were claiming we had hit herd immunity and it was 'effectively over' and with better treatments and a vaccine on the way, we could get 'back to normal' by Christmas. Like the toddlers in the back of the car half an hour into a four hour journey, who can't stop bleating "Aren't we there yet?".
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Dragging this thread back on topic, any faint prospect of some April skiing this year?
Guess the rules would probably allow Brits to travel to the Scottish mountains before they would the Alps or the Kjolens?
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Neil Neige wrote:
Dragging this thread back on topic, any faint prospect of some April skiing this year?
Guess the rules would probably allow Brits to travel to the Scottish mountains before they would the Alps or the Kjolens?


Think unless you live here you might struggle.

I suspect that the centres may open for business before any holiday lets are opened up.............so fine if you can do a day trip, but maybe not a weekend etc.

I may be wrong.
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LaForet wrote:
Why is everyone suddenly so fixated on the measure used to record deaths in a pandemic?..................


Because that is the number slapped up on the news every night to scare everyone. Data and correct data is the key to everything.
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thefatcontroller wrote:
LaForet wrote:
Why is everyone suddenly so fixated on the measure used to record deaths in a pandemic?..................


Because that is the number slapped up on the news every night to scare everyone. Data and correct data is the key to everything.


Yes, agree with this. Unfortunately most threads of future movement are, inevitably, going to be wayward in direction of pandemic.

Pandemic+Headline begat worrying (naturally) worry begats policy, policy begats action/control, which stops us doing whatever we now don't do. Thread title gives us what we aren't specifically going to be doing during this proscribed period.

Of course, changing the headline calculations isn't going to change our potential to ski. Public fear of what will happen to them individually, and their acceptance of risk profile, will control their behaviour.

If the most fearful scream for "their" government to do something, the only tools those authorities have ordinarily is control. Which comes back to stopping doing things, which loops round to headline numbers again. That's why it's tedious.
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@thefatcontroller, +1. If you’re going to use data, and the government keep say saying ‘data not dates’ then you need to make damn sure your numbers are right-in and out. I’m a mathematical physicist and know that models massively depend on the assumptions which go into them-and these are never made public for peer review, only the worst possible outputs get plastered all over the media.
We went into lockdowns on the basis of computer modelling, not all of which has been proven accurate.
I still remember back in January being told that the chances of us getting this wave under control-with a more transmissive variant and a weaker lockdown-were very low according to the R rate models. Fortunately that model was wrong as well.
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@snowhound, Imperial College and their wonderous predictions based on modelling created through the smoking of bongs have been my favourite. All about the headline grabbing predictions.
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NickyJ wrote:
@jabuzzard, whereas those cancer patient shouldn’t be included as they are deaths in direct result of the measures taken NOT as a result of the disease.


In many cases individual’s treatment for cancer was suspended because of the risk covid would present given the suppression of the immune system during treatment.

The level of covid prevalence in the UK has resulted in delays to both cancer treatments and diagnosis causing additional deaths, and yet we have covid deniers and lockdown skeptics advocate having more covid as the solution ? rolling eyes
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snowhound wrote:
@thefatcontroller, +1. If you’re going to use data, and the government keep say saying ‘data not dates’ then you need to make damn sure your numbers are right-in and out. I’m a mathematical physicist and know that models massively depend on the assumptions which go into them-and these are never made public for peer review, only the worst possible outputs get plastered all over the media. We went into lockdowns on the basis of computer modelling, not all of which has been proven accurate.
I still remember back in January being told that the chances of us getting this wave under control-with a more transmissive variant and a weaker lockdown-were very low according to the R rate models. Fortunately that model was wrong as well.

But isn't the problem that (a) there are no perfect data sources and back in 2020 (b) models were generic and (c) we couldn't wait until they improved? Politicians have to use what is available at the time. Epidemiological modelling is never ever going to be wholly accurate. It's intrinsic to any epidemiological modelling that you have to make assumptions. Trying to tie together together epidemiological science with citizens' behavioural psychology, economic consequences and government policies is not like particle physics. It's always going to be an imperfect exercise, surely?

But I do agree that the PM's stated idea that 'This is not the time' to start reviewing what went right and what went wrong is bizarre. It's intrinsic to good science and good government that you do exactly that. So that you change your tactics and strategies in the light of experience.


Last edited by You know it makes sense. on Sat 20-02-21 15:09; edited 2 times in total
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haggishunter wrote:
NickyJ wrote:
@jabuzzard, whereas those cancer patient shouldn’t be included as they are deaths in direct result of the measures taken NOT as a result of the disease.


In many cases individual’s treatment for cancer was suspended because of the risk covid would present given the suppression of the immune system during treatment.

The level of covid prevalence in the UK has resulted in delays to both cancer treatments and diagnosis causing additional deaths, and yet we have covid deniers and lockdown skeptics advocate having more covid as the solution ? rolling eyes


Oh I am not a Covid denier i do think they made some very flawed choices in the way they locked down and opened up and priorities they made. However that is with the luxury of not having to make those decisions myself. But what I am saying is they need to look very honestly at the harm they have caused and understand what could have been done differently so that they can make better decisions (or if it turns out that actually on balance that have was the overall best path, have that information to back up doing it all the same way again) when the next novel virus hits the streets.
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Arghhhh

So many people with so many opinions fueled by nothing more than an internet connection and an ability to type. Excellent.

Also look at total excess deaths this year.

As for "A few more tens of thousands of dead people is neither here nor there...." Nice. lady's front bottom
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@LaForet, those are all fair points but Should have been addressed by giving bands of probability (like with economic predictions) rather than just headline grabbing worst case scenarios.
Or/and they should have also published the assumptions behind their modelling so that these could have been challenged or reviewed by peers.
But everything has been ‘black box’ decision making and scientific modelling. Which is fine if you get it right, but they consistently haven’t been.
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LaForet wrote:
Yes, about time we had a holiday, come what may. A few more tens of thousands of dead people is neither here nor there now we'd buried 120,000, and routine NHS surgery delayed for another six months is well worth it.


I do hope you'll be putting your hand up to be one of them.
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ed123 wrote:
LaForet wrote:
Yes, about time we had a holiday, come what may. A few more tens of thousands of dead people is neither here nor there now we'd buried 120,000, and routine NHS surgery delayed for another six months is well worth it.


I do hope you'll be putting your hand up to be one of them.

You're saying you wish me dead?
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@ed123, lets see what happens to excess deaths next year then. My guess is that they will be much lower as a high proportion of those covid deaths basically died a year or so early. Not nice to say but you’ve got to die of something eventually and this year it happened to be covid. Interesting that the government have yet to publish any sort of cost benefit analysis of lockdowns given they’ve spent hundreds of billions on them.
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ed123 wrote:
Arghhhh

So many people with so many opinions fueled by nothing more than an internet connection and an ability to type. Excellent.

Also look at total excess deaths this year.

As for "A few more tens of thousands of dead people is neither here nor there...." Nice. lady's front bottom


Looks like you've taken that the wrong way completely, your quote within the marks.



@ed123 "Nice. lady's front bottom" and do you really feel this adds to the debate in any productive way?
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The only real way to calculate and compare deaths for different areas and Countries will be against previous years. It's the only way of removing the different methods of counting, often for political reasons.

This will give us an overall effect of the Pandemic (as it will include any additional deaths due to lack of treatment).

Of course, we should then expect a few years with below average, as those who would normally who died in this period had already sucummbed during the Pandemic.

Don't be surprised to then see a clamour in the media, as annual deaths then rise back to the "average".
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Feels like this thread has gone off track long enough. Lots of threads in Apres no doubt to continue this debate.
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It’s a car crash here.
TLDR: this season isn’t going to happen.
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GreenDay wrote:
Neil Neige wrote:
Dragging this thread back on topic, any faint prospect of some April skiing this year?
Guess the rules would probably allow Brits to travel to the Scottish mountains before they would the Alps or the Kjolens?


Think unless you live here you might struggle.

I suspect that the centres may open for business before any holiday lets are opened up.............so fine if you can do a day trip, but maybe not a weekend etc.

I may be wrong.


The web cams today show some brutal damage to the snow over the last seven days, and the temperatures are not due to drop back to normal for sometime. Double digit temperatures here in Fife well into March. So unless there is another cold snap no chance even for those of us with easy day trip distance.
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