 Poster: A snowHead
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Red Leon, long way away yet 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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brian
brian
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Well, I'm looking out my (Swiss) window and it's been snowing lightly but steadily since about 2pm. Should be a few cm up the hill tomorrow. The pistes here are already in excellent condition but then again it's been very cold and they're not getting much traffic.
Currently the weekend and early next week in the alps look like staying cold and predominantly dry then warming up as high pressure slips to the south east. Beyond the reliable timeframe GFS is currently going for full on springtime, sunny and warm by day, cool and clear by night whereas ECM brings back cold weather from the north around the 19th.
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brian, lucky you, no snow here.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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brian, GFS,I think I understand but ECM? What's the difference?
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brian
brian
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Colin Bell, ECMWF (when not abbreviated by me) is the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting.
http://www.ecmwf.int/about/overview/
They have their own weather model which competes with (and usually outperforms) the US weather service's GFS model. Unfortunately, only a very limited selection of their model's output is made available to the public. 
Swirly, not much but better than nothing. How's the car?
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brian, working as of today so should be fine.
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| brian wrote: |
Well, I'm looking out my (Swiss) window and it's been snowing lightly but steadily since about 2pm. Should be a few cm up the hill tomorrow. The pistes here are already in excellent condition but then again it's been very cold and they're not getting much traffic.
Currently the weekend and early next week in the alps look like staying cold and predominantly dry then warming up as high pressure slips to the south east. Beyond the reliable timeframe GFS is currently going for full on springtime, sunny and warm by day, cool and clear by night whereas ECM brings back cold weather from the north around the 19th. |
do you have a link to where I can see a ECM wiggley?
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brian
brian
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Any thoughts on the 21st -25th in st anton?The wigglies are showing a rise in temps from around the 19th of the month coupled with some precipitation. Please don't tell me I am going to be skiing in the rain again :cry:After the warm/wet spell at New Year,I could do without that. Is there enough agreement on the runs yet?or could it all change?
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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hedley, Definitely looks like some spring like weather heading in from the second half of this week. And a fair chance of some precipitation which looks like it might well be rain in the village round Sunday/Monday, but snow mid mountain. But still a bit early to be really clear. So yes, it could all change for better or worse  But even if it rains a bit in the village it still means lovely soft snow above!
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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according to chamonix meteo the reliability of forecasts beyond Tuesday is "poor". Which, in view of some of the forecasts FLs over the weekend, is good news. Fingers crossed.
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I'm just back from La Thuile and it was proper cold. A lot colder than I've ever experienced in March. Although I was lucky enough to have four blue sky days out of six, on the least cold day the temperature was -5ºC at the mid station. Then the coldest day was -18ºC at the top with a biting wind making it feel much colder. It took all night for my feet to thaw out!
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You know it makes sense.
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| hedley wrote: |
| Any thoughts on the 21st -25th in st anton?The wigglies are showing a rise in temps from around the 19th of the month coupled with some precipitation. Please don't tell me I am going to be skiing in the rain again :cry:After the warm/wet spell at New Year,I could do without that. Is there enough agreement on the runs yet?or could it all change? |
looks pretty much in agreement that temps will rise, but how much isn't certain, ie on the 20th one wiggly has it at around 0, the other about +4.....so a bit far out for any certainty (if there is such a thing with mountain weather....)
Last edited by You know it makes sense. on Mon 15-03-10 11:08; edited 1 time in total
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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kitenski, yeah there is still a degree of spread on the 00z run so i,m keeping fingers crossed its going to cool down a couple of degrees from the 22nd onwards.The further East you go the cooler it is I think which should help in my favour compared to the Geneva wigglies although at 1350 m St Anton is always marginal.
Lets see how it pans out.
I wouldnt be overly worried but its only a 4 night trip and my last one over New Yr I got absolutely drenched through for two days AAGGHHH!!
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Poster: A snowHead
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Can anyone out there see anything other than grot between this Saturday and the end of March? the weather has been fantastic the last few days, and the snow, though well skied, is mostly fine. But from Saturday onwards......
But we all know that forecasts beyond 2 days are not reliable. Repeat 100 times.....
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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pam w, It just needs to get a bit colder...............then it could be good...in others words pray it gets colder or ii will be skiing in les carroz rain again...ugh
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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carroz, I shan't be skiing in any kind of rain. I am planning a very large, very good, very alcoholic, long Sunday lunch, with the friends who will be staying with us, and our neighbours. It's the annual "hot air balloon" festival in Les Saisies and if the weather is not as ghastly as forecast we will be out on the slopes enjoying the spectacle. But I'm not optimistic. In the kind of weather which is coming they can't get it up, anyway.
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pam w,
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But I'm not optimistic. In the kind of weather which is coming they can't get it up, anyway
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Fear not, I have lots of adverts in my inbox offering to fix that particular problem. Drop me a line and I will forward them to you.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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I'm off to Engelberg tomorrow. Can anyone explain why the GFS Hauptlauf has been consistently predicting much higher temps for 19th-21st than the rest of the wigglies on all recent runs?
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Nope, but it looks pretty close to the kontrol. It's been dipping up and down a bit for the second half of the forecast over the last few runs, but consistently above average and warm over the next four to five days - and possibly beyond. 
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| it looks pretty close to the kontrol |
Eh? It's about 5 degrees warmer than the kontrol on the 20th
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I was looking at the pattern rather than the exact runs, over the whole of the 00z run they follow each other very closely. Although it's about five degrees lower at one point on 26th. What I'd take from that is that there is an increasingly consistent warm trend emerging. The haupt is quite sensitive and jumps around a bit. But when the haupt and kontrol are matching each other then the forecast starts to feel more probable. I'd probably focus on that rather than the precise psition of the haupt. But some else may say this is tosh.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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I agree there is no doubt that it's getting warmer but the question is how much. For my trip (18th-22nd) the haupt is predicting a heatwave but all of the rest of the wigglies aren't so bad. This has been the case on every run for the past 3-4 days. I'm curious as to why the haupt is so far removed from the rest as normally 2-3 days before all the wigglies start lining up together. I'm praying the haupt is wrong and I won't get rained on.
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On the basis of 00z I'd say rain to about 2000m+ on Saturday night, Sunday morning snow level will fall slightly. Haupt and Kontrol are actually pretty close round that point. Fingers crossed it might switch to a colder track...
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Red Leon, I wouldn't worry about any of that. The wigglies looked quite similar before my recent trip to La Thuile, i.e. above average temperatures and precipitation. The actual week turned out to be much colder than average but with very little snowfall and lots of sun. Weather forecasts seem pretty unreliable to me. The best one is looking out of the window in the morning!
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queen bodecia,
There's always blind hope but this forecast is set in stone
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You know it makes sense.
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| Quote: |
There's always blind hope but this forecast is set in stone
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Lachainemeteo: http://france.lachainemeteo.com/meteo-france/prevision_meteo_france_0.php doesn't look too bad, Sunday maybe a bit dreich but improving thereafter. I've always found them fairly reliable in the past.
OK its going to be quite mild, so ski high, but it is spring  . And anyway I'm getting a bit fed up of -18C .....
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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I'd prefer +7, we had a -18 day in La Thuile last week and it was horrible. Skiing in March should be about long sunny days and temperatures hovering around zero. We had a lovely day at +10 in Courmayeur last season.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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anyone got any wiggles predictions for saalbach next week. everywhere i look is saying different things. the warm weather is there but guessing that is resort level along with any rain. so am i right in saying that, this would transform magically into snow higher up the hill
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Quote: |
so am i right in saying that, this would transform magically into snow higher up the hill
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There's a drop of 1C per 100M vertical rise, called the "lapse rate".
That all assumes nothing devious is going on like an inversion (but you're probably not going to get that next week).
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It's not looking too bad, except for sunday which looks set to be a complete washout, not much doubt about that. We have already planned a good brunch (still have a pile of Tesco best bacon), and a nice siesta followed by a large early supper followed by a DVD. If it rains all day I'm not poking my head out the door. It was warm today, going to be warmer tomorrow, but exceptionally pleasant. Three days ago it was too cold to sit outside with a beer - today there were folk in shirtsleeves and we sat outside with several. Snow getting slushy on the southern aspect slopes, but that's liveable with. Tomorrow much the same, I think. the latest wiggles for this area have much colder and some snow around 26th - fingers crossed. Could be a whole lot worse.  Les Deux alpes looks fine - some new snow up top for the weekend, then some nice sunshine to enjoy it in.
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andyrew, I always work to that theory but in practise it seems to estimate a lower temperature than the measured one IME 1000m in height gives a 7-8 degree drop.
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brian
brian
Guest
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andyrew, Swirly, 1C per 100m in dry air, can be 1C per 200m or more in well saturated air. 1C per 150m is a reasonable rule of thumb for freezing level in snow in the alps.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Quote: |
IME 1000m in height gives a 7-8 degree drop.
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Yes, that's true Swirly, The discrepancy would be the difference between the dry air lapse rate and the saturated one. Wikipedia has a reasonable discussion on this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lapse_rate#Dry_adiabatic_lapse_rate
A "dry" parcel of air is reckoned to lapse at 1C/100m but moist air is lower, I see wikipedia put it at 0.5C for saturated, I've used 3C/1000ft for dry and 2C/1000ft for saturated before. But the bottom line is that the average lapse rate will reduce to ultimately give a total value less than the predicted 10C/1000m. This is why places in the lee of mountains are warmer than the windward side, e.g. the Moray Firth, the moist air climbs over the cairngorms at say 2C/1000ft, rains, and then decends at 3C/1000ft, ergo a Nice day in Nairn ( or should that be Balmy Buckie ?) 
P.s. Ahh - see you beat me to it Brian.
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brian, andyrew, thanks for the explanation.
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FAQ
The forecast could mean rain to high levels that week so let's hope it changes 
