 Poster: A snowHead
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pam w, good news, looks like the wigglies are keeping it cold for the foreseeable future as well (if we can believe them.....)
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Some big masses of precip swirling around N Italy on the Radar, one over the Gulf of Genoa, Turin and the Piedmont Alps heading north (to Zermatt, hopefully) and another over Bologna which could do some damage later:
http://www.eurometeo.com/english/radar/jump_ARPAP-1
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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luigi, let's hope so. snow-less freezing fog this morning; really nothing to recommend it at all.
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pam w, my guess is not much will make it over to the French side of the border except in the far south (Alpes Maritimes), an active front is forecast to run right around the Italian side of the Alpine Arc during today, should mean some serious dumpage for Italian Alps and S Austria, a bit doubtful of it spilling over to the North side into Switzerland, but the forecasts are still showing snow and Zermatt is right on the border, so still keeping fingers crossed.
Now more worried about the state of the roads here and Gatwick early tomorrow morning as there's heavy snow forecast fo the southeast corner overnight.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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luigi, hope you'll get some good stuff for Zermatt and have a trouble free exit from the UK.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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unfortunately i am no expert in interpreting the wigglies, so was wondering if anyone could see any snow on the horizon for the french alps, espace killy region? snow forecast has a light dusting a couple of times in the next 9 days.
what are everyone's thoughts on the snowfall depths that snow forecast predict? are they usually over or under estimaters?
ta!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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luckyV, all of the followers of this thread are pretty disparaging about the automated software engine that creates the snow forecast predictions. It can oscillate wildly and both under and over predict. Better to get superstitious in some way and read the musings your fellow snowheads here. 
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Chamonix Meteo which is the most reliable round here says 10cm tonight and 20cm tomorrow. Would be good 
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thanks v much, kewhoward and bobinch. i am so excited i put on all my ski gear for no reason. not for long, mind.
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You know it makes sense.
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luckyV, as far as I can tell snowforecast strips out one of the lines from the GFS, the haupt I think, and then extrapolates from that. This means the forecast can bounce around a lot - as does the haupt - except without the rest of the runs it lacks a lot of context and nuance. As with GFS it is better in the two to three day range and the more the same forecast appears the greater the reliability you might be tempted to treat it with...
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Any wiggly watchers know what its looking like for the Tirol over the next week? Haven't had enough of my wiggly fix lately, too busy looking at the snow here!
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Poster: A snowHead
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| Quote: |
Chamonix Meteo which is the most reliable round here says 10cm tonight and 20cm tomorrow.
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well we had just a few centimetres overnight, but heavy from 6 am - around 25 altogether so far, maybe - hard to tell as it's drifting a bit in the wind. Wasn't the best day to have to drive to Geneva airport (which was closed at some points) but good to see it coming down. we certainly had far more than snow-forecast had us down for.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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According to Snowforecast and local weather website, La Thuile was due to get 10-15cm today but apparently they got nearer 50cm!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Bit slow at work and rain stopped play at cricket in SA so its seems a good time to start to worry about the rain forcasted from the 25 Jan !! 
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| Quote: |
According to Snowforecast and local weather website, La Thuile was due to get 10-15cm today but apparently they got nearer 50cm!
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the local forecasts, including Chamonix, haven't been any better overall than snow-forecast recently, with their estimates of amounts of precipitation. I think it's been very difficult to call - and remains so. Looks like we could get a big fall, or rather little, tomorrow evening and Sunday. Chamonix meteo describes the outlook from Sunday as "very uncertain" so I wouldn't get worried (or excited) about precipitation later in January at this point. There's not much consistency in the wigglies out there.
For the moment, snow seems pretty good in most places - quantity not too exciting, but quality excellent. Loads of sun, not too much wind, not cold.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Louis, 25th Jan, worry about the 23/24th 
The wigglies for Geneva for the 25th show massive diagreement with a huge spread of possible temperates from +8 to -about -8
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Well off on Sunday to Bardonecchia - too late now to be worrying about wigglies...but surely 25th is too far out to be worrying?
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...but surely 25th is too far out to be worrying?
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Yes, you right, but thats what we do here: we worry about any temp rises and rain a month away and then tell each other it is too far out to be worrying !
Enjoy your trip
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the 25th is my first day on skis this year. +8c is unpalatable. if i believed in the existence of a higher power i might be tempted to pray!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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The 00Z run seems to have settled down - at least for the Bardonecchia area. Only one 'line' out there in the tropical zone. I thought things didn't get to be a source of real worry until all of the wigglies were out there?
Anyway, I promised myself I wouldn't look again as tomorrow I shall see for myself what it's like. But it seems I have a bit of an unbeatable addiction........
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Anyway, I promised myself I wouldn't look again as tomorrow I shall see for myself what it's like
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 Can't think how you allowed that to happen. I can look out the window and I STILL look at the wigglies with my morning tea.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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It's too warm. Snowed quite hard overnight but it's heavy, claggy, leg-breaking stuff and it must have been raining down in the valleys. It's now really mild - barely freezing at 1500m.
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All starts getting a little more serious when the date you depart is showing on the wigglies... I head out to Morzine on the 31st January. Plenty of variation in the runs that far out but between now and then temps seem below average with some further chances for snow between now and then...
*crosses fingers*
Plenty of time for some more white stuff and if not... pah... will beat feckin commutin' 
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You know it makes sense.
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wigglies do seem to show it warming up til about the 21st before cooling down again, and perhaps some precipitation around....but then another warm spike appears to be on the cards for a few days (23rd ish) then mass disagreement as to wether it cools down or not after that....
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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kitenski, which wigglies are you monitoring? For reference I'm mostly keeping an eye on these:
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Poster: A snowHead
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ski-finder, this one for the geneva area (I think)
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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looking like it could be pretty baltic for next week, chance of some snow in the next few days and maybe something else on the horizon for the weekend??
chamonix meteo concurs:
TOMORROW - WEDNESDAY JANUARY 20
Fairly sunny morning - disturbance coming in later- snow likely towards the evening
THURSDAY JANUARY 21
TEMPERATURE : dropping highs.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK UNTIL SUNDAY JANUARY 24 2010
Friday : fairly sunny. Saturday and Sunday : fairly active disturbance crossing over. Outlook is still uncertain.
Forecast reliability : fairly good until Wednesday - poor thereafter
wigglies based on Geneva....
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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kitenski, have you seen my GFS grabber... might save time uploading to snowmediazone
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I'm a bit disappointed that Cham meteo doesn 't mention any quantities - which usually means they think there won't be much. The GFS is looking quite good for tomorrow/Thursday though. We'll see, but yes, it does look cold, which is good - what falls will be kept in good condition. Simply stunning two days here - blue sky from horizon to horizon and excellent snow from 1500m. Lower it suffered a bit in the warm at the weekend.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Looks like a big old Siberian High setting up next week. -20 possible 
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| kitenski wrote: |
wigglies do seem to show it warming up til about the 21st ...
warm spike appears to be on the cards for a few days (23rd ish)
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Although warming, the average lines is still below the long term average.
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Hmm, a big old high which will effectively repel all attempts by low pressure systems to penetrate its ramparts, maybe.
Still, nothing wrong with a bit of sunshine,
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cham meteo now predicting some amounts...has anyone ever seen their reliability be anything but poor for > 3 days out??
TODAY - WEDNESDAY JANUARY 20 2010
PRECIPITATION : starting up towards the middle of the afternoon - locally moderate - rain-snow limit towards 600 m - expected snowfall towards 1000 m : 5-15 cm.
OVERNIGHT
Snow at first - improving later
PRECIPITATION : light and scattered in the first part of the night - rain-snow limit towards 600 m - expected snowfall towards 1000 m : 5-15 cm - dry towards the end of the night.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK UNTIL MONDAY JANUARY 25 2010
Saturday : sunny - cold in the morning - fairly mild in the afternoon. Sunday : fairly active disturbance crossing over. Monday : improving. Outlook is still uncertain.
Forecast reliability : fairly good until Thursday - poor thereafter.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| ringingmaster wrote: |
| kitenski wrote: |
wigglies do seem to show it warming up til about the 21st ...
warm spike appears to be on the cards for a few days (23rd ish)
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Although warming, the average lines is still below the long term average. |
It wasn't on the Sunday wigglies, but is now, which just goes to show how much it can change.....
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