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Return of the Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Just noticed its back - the thread that makes waiting to ski unbearable....... snowHead
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
kewhoward, couldn't agree more.
The only problem is that now this thread is active I don't get much work done. snowHead
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 brian
brian
Guest
Still looking like a few days of unsettled weather and turning colder next week. Don't think we're talking mega dumps but a good 20cm+ or so for much of the alps, the weather arriving from the north and west. Will hit France/Switz first but Austria should do well towards Wed/Thu.

Although it will snow to quite low levels it's still probably a bit early for it to last, should go nicely towards base building up high though.
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Brian/Carled All of these charts with nice colours and isobars are OK but they do not stir the loins like a proper picture of the wrigglys.
Please post a wriggly picture of the possible 'dump' for the Alps next week - You have no idea how those 'spikes' at the bottom of the charts
under a temp drop can turn depression into "snow fever" Very Happy Laughing
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Quite a storm passing through down here in the south..hope it is on target
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 brian
brian
Guest
parallel lines, oh alright then, just for you

These are the Davos/St Anton-ish wigglies:

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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
now that looks fairly promising....
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
brian wrote:

These are the Davos/St Anton-ish wigglies:


Love those wigglies... Very Happy
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Just awesome...thanks Very Happy
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Yum Toofy Grin

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 snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
ooh deep freeze temps at the end snowHead
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
About 25 cms forecast in French Alps over the next few days. More so the further East you travel. Temps are dropping and things are looking good for the next week.

I need a fix of the white stuff Smile
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
we have snow forecast for the thursday, the 13th which is........ a full mooon snowHead wink

next dates to watch for are

new moon 27th november
full moon 12th december (great for opening weekend if it happends!)
new moon 27th december
full moon 11th jan
new moon 26th of jan


lets see what happends eh!

oh by the way the last snow fall fell on the new moon wink
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Woohoo wigglies!!!!!

For those of you that missed the origination of the term on snowHead ... first used fruity and cathy here:
http://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?p=865480&highlight=wigglies#865480
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
snowangel., I have the stake and the firewood, I'm telling you, we'll be burning you at the stake,you know...? Toofy Grin
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Can we make this a Sticky for the rest of the season?
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
carled, hee hee but you got to admit it is fascinating the way the moon does affect the weather. You remember that horrid cold spell in August, that was just after a moon change too.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Quote:

Can we make this a Sticky for the rest of the season?


Good thought but probably unnecessary as it will sticky itself.... snowHead However, it might be good if it did not become the thread in which to dump any thoughts about the weather, or any "will it be nice at New Year in Flaine" type rubbish or arguments about France v Austria. Or toads nesting early. wink
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pam w, but those questions are one of the things that makes this thread so readable without them who will carled be able to take out any frustration on? wink Laughing

I heard the Ibex began moving down a week earlier this year Twisted Evil
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Swirly, yes, well there is that. A bit of aggro along with the weather might be quite good for us. wink
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snowangel., and looking at the moon phases for this winter coming, all of our trips coincide with the new moon.
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 brian
brian
Guest
This is incredible !!!! I've spent ages trawling through the data and ......


EVERY SINGLE SNOWFALL THE ALPS HAS EVER SEEN HAS BEEN WITHIN 15 DAYS OF A NEW MOON !!!!!!!! Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked

Incroyable.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
brian, awesome discovery! Now if we could only get NASA to tow the Moon a little bit closer to us we'd be guaranteed more frequent dumps Smile
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snowangel., was pretty much spot on last year as well with her new moon theory, could bring a new meaning to when to book a weekend powder trip...15 days either side of the new moon would mean it'd be so much easier to predict the exact weekend to hit the powder...... Toofy Grin


Last edited by You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net. on Tue 11-11-08 22:52; edited 1 time in total
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brian, Laughing
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rob@rar wrote:
brian, awesome discovery! Now if we could only get NASA to tow the Moon a little bit closer to us we'd be guaranteed more frequent dumps Smile


either that or if they could make the world spin twice as fast around it's axis, it would halvew the time until my holidays Laughing
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Looks this morning, so far, like 5 - 30cm of freshies has fallen in a band from France to Switzerland to Western Austria.

Snowline is around 1000 - 1500m. Sticky at lower levels.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
brian, wink does this mean i may avoid being burnt at the stake!

very wet at valley level today but a good covering from about 1700m, more due tomorrow, the more this carries on the more i think i should cancell the doc appointment tomorrow in grenoble, i dont want to be stuck on the wrong side of the coll!
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 brian
brian
Guest
me, last Wednesday wrote:

It's looking good for some cold and snow round about next Tuesday/Wednesday.


Stands back smugly, chalking up first strike of 08/09. wink

High pressure looks to be taking control over the weekend and most of next week, so sunny days and frosty nights.

Signs are fairly promising for a really cold arctic blast around the 20th/21st, watch this space.


Last edited by brian on Fri 21-11-08 18:27; edited 2 times in total
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Looks to have been a bit more snow than was originally forecast. Most of the cams I've seen are down to about 2000m and there seems to have been a good 20cm. Surely, this means there has been at least 30cm up top.

More snow now seems to be forecast for the Tuesday but not as much.

brian where have you gopt the info for this Arctic blast? I'm out starting my season from the 22nd. A monster dump just before I arrive would be magic.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
i'd also like to be hoping for more than an arctic last by the 20th/21st, i'd prefer to see some long term winter temps start arriving!
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
snow-guess are forecasting a dumpette on the 17th for La Plagne Very Happy
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 brian
brian
Guest
blakey, take a look at the red line in the wiggly pic above (actually, don't look at it right this minute because WZ seems to be playing silly bugs, but when it returns to today's date). That's the 30 year average temp. Looks mostly average or below to me.
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brian, You were right on the snow so
Quote:

High pressure looks to be taking control over the weekend and most of next week, so sunny days and frosty nights.
means I am relying on you for fine weather in Tignes next Tues/Weds/Thurs - I've promised MrsS it will nice!
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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brian wrote:
EVERY SINGLE SNOWFALL THE ALPS HAS EVER SEEN HAS BEEN WITHIN 15 DAYS OF A NEW MOON !!!!!!!! Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked


Barely believable... Reminds me of a 3 year study into absenteeism amongst Lollipop ladies which discovered that a shocking 40% of sickies were taken on a Monday or a Friday!
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brian, red 27, Laughing
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Boredsurfing wrote:
snow-guess are forecasting a dumpette on the 17th for La Plagne Very Happy


Look... you do realise that snowguess et al just base their snowfall guesses on the wigglies, basically? As these are updated several times a day, using different data most times, they are prone to large changes from even quite close to the date, let alone from a week or more away. All snowguess does is translate a couple of wiggly lines into a number... which is impossible to do with any level of accuracy.

this is what causes the "snowguess says it's gonna dump 37cm on resort X tomorrow, yahoo!" followed half a day or a day later by, "where did all the snow go, it's just 3cm now, boo" followed by "yay, 18cm now!" and so on... it's POINTLESS speculation.

All you can tell from the long range GFS is a trend. If ALL or MOST of the lines concur (as is the case at present at the time of posting) for a week or so off then there's a very good chance that there will be the indicated outcome, but a minor change today will have a knock-on "butterfly" effect several days down the line. LOADS of times last season there were hugely promising synoptics that faded out with 3 days to go due to a shift in the position of a high pressure system.

It's currently looking extremely promising for most areas in the alps next week, but don't believe any of the crap posted about predicted depths, it's virtually worthless. Just settle for "it looks good" and be happy with whatever we get that isn't a heatwave.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
carled wrote:
It's currently looking extremely promising for most areas in the alps next week

That's a good enough forecast for me, maybe with a very broad indication of possible snowfall (eg light or heavy snow). Never had much faith in the spurious accuracy of the various forecast websites.
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Without wishing to do anyone out of any money, THIS SITE has always been pretty good and is easy to understand. Just click 'Animate'.

It also says damn cold next week and possibly some epic dumps by the weekend.
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You tell 'em carled. Missed you and Brian all Summer long. Definitely my most watched thread on Snowheads.

I'm understanding the wigglies now but the isobars and front patterns are going to take several more goes.....
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