 Poster: A snowHead
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"Rocky" sums it up, although up until the weekend with the very cold temperatures you could still find some powder if you knew where to look  . Getting a bit warmer though, temperature inversion again as well... -7°C down in Bourg at 10am, but the cannons haven't been working up at Arc 1600 today, first time for ten days or so.
As long as it doesn't get too warm though the less steep runs should stay in reasonable condition, topped up by the artificial stuff, less traffic etc during January. And as skanky says, there's still hope for some snow next week!
skanky, with your interest in forecasting, click on "Animation des prévisions" from http://www.avalanche-net.com/ to get a seven day sat animation - they forecast the high moving very slowly east from the Iberian peninsula, but still keeping the clouds away from the southern and most of the northern Alps and Pyrenees, if I'm reading it right.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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PG, I'm reading the same way, though they show a front move through in Sunday, I think. It is also showing the little low develop to the west of Italy over the Med on Thursday. Though as no one's forecasting much from it. That's an animation of the GFS model. It's one of the NWP models I look at (because it's free), but it's teh first animation of it I've seen. It has a reasonable reliability up to a bit under week, after that you can really only use it for trends, though it can get some stuff right, you will normally see changes. One trick is to look at several models and compare them. For the next few days, nothing beats the FAX charts, though they can still get difficult situations a bit wrong.
I have thought of doing a similar animation for seveal models (just build the web page(s) and point them at the images on the site below), but have been too lazy to do it.
See here for the full range of public domain stuff. The link is to the GFS page, but the table on the left shows other outputs. Bracknell is the MetO, though it should probably say Exeter now (though they may not have moved it all to Exeter, yet. I've lost track).
What do you mean by "rocky"? Lots of bare patches?
Good job I'm hiring skis this year (for the first time in a long time). 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Just so long as they've got razor sharp edges, you'll be fine! As for 'rocky', anything with a reasonable gradient has been scraped pretty thin - there was little or no base to speak of up until Dec 18th, so with the Christmas traffic of slide-slippers it didn't take much to take it off. There are still plenty of slopes in good condition though, although there are loose stones coming through pretty much anywhere.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Thanks for that homphomp.
Manky snow?
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| homphomp wrote: |
| We've learn't a few new French phrases though.... |
Nothing more colourful?
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skanky,  ....too true!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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PG ....I'm too polite to say!
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| Quote: |
cailloux sur la piste"
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Are they those big things with horns??? 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Giant snails?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Damn tricky. What kind of wax is suitable for slime trails? Oh I do love the the surreal!
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so happy i've just bought a new board to use in les arcs in 2 week's time....perhaps it can stay in the bag and i'll trash a rental one instead!
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You know it makes sense.
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Hi zippy and welcome to snowheads. We mostly make sense much of the time.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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cheers Chris, I'm off to Arc1950 on 22nd, and me and my mate have spent the best part of the Xmas period poring over every webcam, every weather report, consulted voodoo witch doctors and prayed to the God of snow - anything to get some fresh white stuff in the next 2 weeks!!
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Poster: A snowHead
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zippy, i hope that the position will be very different in 2 weeks - I shall be in Tignes. Welcome to snowheads and make sure that you join our little community over on the boarding forum.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Chris Bish wrote: |
| Damn tricky. What kind of wax is suitable for slime trails? Oh I do love the the surreal! |
French polish?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Tony, I really hope it's better by 22nd - Zippy and I will be gutted if conditions do not improve before our trip..... 
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| PG wrote: |
| Chris Bish wrote: |
| Damn tricky. What kind of wax is suitable for slime trails? Oh I do love the the surreal! |
French polish? |
Dan Ackroyd would know, I'm sure.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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The USAF FAX chart is now putting the next lot precipitation (tonight/tomorrow) a bit further south than yesterday's chart. Won't be a lot, though GFS also reckons it'll some.
Also, the MetO have now ditched the formation of small low over the northern Med later this week. The charts for Sunday aren't looking good and none of the models are predicting any breakdown of the high before the latter half of next week (as usual though that's a long way out for confidence). It looks like any snow that comes before then will be dependant on a "flattening" of the northern side of the high bringing in some air directly off the Atlantic.
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We're headed out on Saturday. Looks like we might be a week late/early. Watching closely to see what skis to bring. Looks like the old ones
Cheers
N
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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good luck mate, hopefully all the weather reports will be as reliable as ever and it'll dump 12in on you!! 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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I'm heading out on the 18th so we should have a collective pray or snow dance...whatever..!!
skanky,
Where are you headed..?
Any other snowheads in the region.??
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Bungle, they played the odds and won out. They had some good odds then (all models were in broad agreement and there were few dissenting forecasts - the main variation was in exactly when and how much). If they had predicted it and it had not really come off people may not have remembered so much,...but I bet they wouldn't have been so bold had the models been all over the place.
JT, BSM, PG's place. There are, I think. Some point in the next few days we should re-start a thread on Trips for La Plagne/BSM/Les Arcs for 14th-29th weeks.
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skanky,
Ok, we are up in Belleplagne from the 18th for at least a week.
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You know it makes sense.
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Just to reassure people slightly - hannou was training yesterday on the Cachette (Arc 1600) and it was in pretty good condition - since the traffic dropped considerably at the end of the hols, the cannons have been blasting away and some slopes have recovered a little.
Today's forecast of a little snow this morning was spot on ... but to describe it as "light snowfall" would be a bit of an exaggeration!
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Barely any extra cover from this morning's flurries I'm afraid! The webcam shows just how quiet it can be on the slopes at this time of January - just a single skier in sight on the entire Cachette slope when the photo was taken a short while ago.
Not too promising looking at the 7 day forecasts, but the battle between high and low pressures seem to be taking place over the northern Alps... so if that low were to slip just a little further away, who knows?
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Poster: A snowHead
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PG, yup that's what I'm watching. There's little agreement between the models as to the details (they all show it hanging around for a week or so) but some show the precipitation heading further south than others. There is some indication of another flurry on Sunday/Monday (probably about the same as today). The ensembles for Geneva show almost 100% agreement for that. That may be the southerly limit though.
Further out the GFS model at least keeps changing its mind about the precipitation between 14th & 22nd. Few other models go that far out and anyway, at that timescale it really is finger in the air stuff.
Are those orange rectangles gates for the training you mentioned?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Can't really see the perspective too well at that distance, but those are the warning signs telling people to slow down at certain points - there are a couple where a blue goes from right to left across the Cachette. The training area is very close to the chairlift, you can't make it out on the photo.
www.avalanche-net.com suggests some precipitation for next Wednesday as well, but the high still seems to be the dominant system on their animation?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Thanks for pointing that out. I had been looking at the 00z (midnight) run of GFS and they're now showing the 06z (this morning) run, so it's more up to date. Having another quick look through the output, the best thing is that it's upped the amount of precipitation on Sunday (still not loads though) and has now put the fronts on Wednesday at further south so bringing some into the area then. The good news is that, AFAIA, the 06z run tends to be the better run as it includes more input data. The problem is it shows how much the shape of the high affects the weather the Alps and get - and that they're just in the awkward place (if they were further south we could be more sure about them being drier, if a bit further north we'd be more sure about being wetter). It now "flattens" the northerly side both at the weekend and in the middle of next week, but just as it looks like it might slide away, it re-establishes itself. However, there is a general trend growing that the high will weaken in just over a week....let's hope this continues.
Keep your eye on the charts here. The numbers are hours from the run time. The GFS model runs at 00, 06, 12 and 18. I tend to look at the morning runs. The GFS is a US model and is more geared to their set-up (it is quite coarse, but gets a lot finer at nearer timescales), so is not ideal for European forecasting, but it's free so many people use it. The further out timeswise you go, the more salt you need to take with it, as well.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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ok, now you are worrying me. I am off to Tignes on the 14th and at the moment i am fearing that it will be an icy, rock strewn experience - so different from the promising talk about the Xmas snow lasting for weeks and setting everyone up for a great start to the season.
still, being a glass-half-full kind of guy, i am hopeful that there will be snow at the end of next week and throughout my time in Tignes so that conditions improve all the time we are there. I would rather have bad weather than hard, thin snow.
please tell me this is feasible?
(i know this is a Les Arcs thread, but we're talking roughly the same area and you guys seem to know what to look for and how to interpret it!)
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Tony Lane, I'm going on the 14th, too (we're getting the same train I seem to remember), and I'm not really all that worried. I would be if I was going next week, though even that looks more optimistic than it did yesterday. The Xmas snow, I don't know who said it would last (or why they thought that - at least in the western Alps)...I expected it (plus the earlier fall) to kick-start the season, but surely everyone knew that more would be needed (the problem is when would it come?).
Anyway, my current view is that there will be a few "fresheners" between now and the 14th, and that as we move through the weekend the situation will slowly improve synoptically, so there is a reasonable chance of some improvement (snow-wise) from early that week onwards. I don't expect Europe to be completely free of the high for quite a while though, as we've already seen even if it moves away for a bit, it can easily re-establish itself. We just need plenty of snow in those gaps. I reckon again, this season may be better off later on (which would be good for you all going to the end of season bash).
One thing I can say with a strong degree confidence though, is that between now and next weekend that the view will probably change and that I will definitely be wrong in at least one of the above predictions. Let's just hope it's in the right way.... 
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skanky, cheers for that!
It is always the same - although I know that it is pointless, I get excited when the snow falls 3 weeks before the trip. Then I start to get worried because the reports nearer the time never live up to the dreams. Then, when I arrive there, I have a fabulous time anyway.
dreams of powder fields might have to be put on hold (maybe a late season trip is called for) but I am sure that it'll come good in the end.
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Tony Lane, I know just how you feel. I can't believe also my reactions when looking at model output charts for 14 days hence. It's as if I think they'll have much similarity to the actual charts of the day. 
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Anybody else think that skanky needs his own section on snowheads as our resident weather expert?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Either that or we try and tempt Micheal Fish out of retirement.
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You mean Michael "of course there won't be a hurricane" Fish? I'd rather have skanky do it
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