 Poster: A snowHead
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| skanky wrote: |
A number of the models don't (currently) agree with GFS about next week and look a little more optimistic. The differences aren't huge - they all bring high pressure into the situation - but the details are enough to make reasonable difference to the weather the Alps will experience. Don't know which will win out, but GFS is in the minority at the moment so we'd have to go for the ECMWF or somewhere between the two (like GEM), but that may change. No two models are alike, though I *think* (it was the case 12 years ago) that the GFS and ECMWF are more similar to each other than they are to the UKMO GM (though that's been updated since then). |
Ah ok, i think? lets hope the outcome is postive, cheers for the explaination
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Hmmm. Looking at the models this morning, there appears to be a growing consensus of opinion about the high pressure beginning to look like forming over the uk, which will bring cold temps down from the Arctic into Europe... I'm actually starting to feel reasonably optimistic about some decent low temps and snowfall from this setup.. but aside from the odd sprinkling here and there today in Austria/Germany I don't see much of note until later next week... maybe next Weds or thereabouts at a push? If things keep going the way they are, I think that some parts of the alps (mainly looking like Germany & Austria will benefit most at the moment, but Switzerland and France will be affected too) will get a good dumping shortly before Christmas...
Still going to get VERY warm in the next few days... sorry...
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Brighter outlook Carled,
We all watch with interest
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brian
brian
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tbh, I'm not overly concerned with the warmth over the next few days. It'll be dry, mostly calm and it'll refreeze overnight. More of a thaw/freeze consolidating thing than a major snow loss thing, imo.
Next week still all over the place run to run. The extremes of very cold but dry or mild'n'wet aren't majorly appealing. Something in the middle would be nice.
The theme of the Low pressure over Iceland spoiling the first attempt by the High to ridge northwards was actually taken up by ECM 00z, but the High makes a quick 2nd attempt and it gets West of the UK by Tuesday.
GFS 06z does something similar about a day later.
The appealing thing about that sort of scenario is more chance of decent snowfall as the colder air arrives.
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skinutter, I reckon you're right. This weekend will be the start of better things to come weatherwise. 
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 maybe i should have fitted new winter rubber earlier LOL
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Only had time for a quick look, so if I disagree with others, I'd take their word over mine (probably a good rule of thumb generally, actually). 06z has brought a change in next week (IIRC). The main differences AFAICS, is that GFS wants to build a stronger block over central Europe (UKMO falls between the two camps), and wants to develop a secondary, deeper LP that runs through the UK a day later than ECMWF & UKMO (as brian has pointed out). It seems that all the models have a shallow LP initially and GFS fills this but runs the second one through, whereas the other two models keep it about a bit longer and don't develop the secondary LP. It's noticable how many of the other features are very similar (the deep lows between Canada & Greenland and in the central Atlantic, for instance). I would guess that the upper air charts will give a clue as to the why of the differences, but we can only see the GFS ones.
Incidentally, wetterzentrale now has pressure & 2mT ensembles available:
Geneva:
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| Quote: |
| It seems that all the models have a shallow LP initially and GFS fills this but runs the second one through, whereas the other two models keep it about a bit longer and don't develop the secondary LP. |
The FAX chart for Sunday lunchtime has the LP already over the N Sea and lots of potential there.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| skanky wrote: |
| Only had time for a quick look, so if I disagree with others, I'd take their word over mine (probably a good rule of thumb generally, actually). 06z has brought a change in next week (IIRC). The main differences AFAICS, is that GFS wants to build a stronger block over central Europe (UKMO falls between the two camps), and wants to develop a secondary, deeper LP that runs through the UK a day later than ECMWF & UKMO (as brian has pointed out). It seems that all the models have a shallow LP initially and GFS fills this but runs the second one through, whereas the other two models keep it about a bit longer and don't develop the secondary LP. It's noticable how many of the other features are very similar (the deep lows between Canada & Greenland and in the central Atlantic, for instance). I would guess that the upper air charts will give a clue as to the why of the differences, but we can only see the GFS ones. |
Again sounds wonderful, i'll have chips and salad with mine, good thread but does anyone wants to put the words
Snowfall, time, dates, cms, into the sentence somewhere that would help me understand . it sounds like there could be a change on the way. The GFS i'm looking at is looking depressing at the moment, not enough colorful lines at the bottom of it (how techincal is that) 
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"It's too early to predict the cms of any snowfall dates, let alone the time, and I can't really do that anyway."
How's that?
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You know it makes sense.
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brian, I'm still struggling with the GFS models because I'm not sure how much they tell us. When we see, the average (control?) climbing over the next 4 days to +5C and falling below the long term average thereafter it only means to me that its unseasonably warm but is this a sea level temperature and is it directly linked to the freezing level? In other words, I don't mind if its relatively warm so long as it snows at resort level, and if its relatively warm during the day, at least it freezes at night. Do the various charts and models help us with this?
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Colin Bell, the temperature shown on those charts is at a height of 850hpa. The "average" sea level pressure is 1000hpa, so 850hpa is at an average of 1500m (1hpa/10m in height increase). However that's an average, and the difference in sea level pressure from the 1000hpa average will affect the actual height. A simplified conversion to FL can be made from that in that (in dry air) temperature declines by 1C/100m. So if 850hpa is at 5C, then a very simple extrapolation will give a FL of 2000m. Other factors will affect this, though.
With regards to temp at the actual ground level, there are GFS 2m temperature charts but as GFS is a global model, it will have a very simplified relief map of the Alps and so will not correspond that closely with what's on the ground. They can give an indication though. The night time charts show the minimum temp in the hours up to the chart time and the daytime charts show the max in the hours up to the chart time. The ensemble I've shown above shows the ensemble 2m temperatures.
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brian
brian
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Colin Bell, the graph skanky posted above shows the temperature 2 metres above the surface at Geneva (which is a few hundred metres above sea level I think).
Normally the temperature charts are useful for estimating freezing levels but due to the fact that it will be a relatively calm area of high pressure over the coming days I think there will be temperature inversions which is going to make it a bit tricky. For instance MeteoSuisse are forecasting a higher max temp in Zermatt than Sion on Thursday. Zermatt is over 1000m higher so you'd expect it to be 5-10 degrees cooler.
Unfortunately I don't know my proverbial from my proverbial in being able to translate the charts into temperatures at various heights on the mountains in such a scenario.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Quote: |
| Unfortunately I don't know my proverbial from my proverbial in being able to translate the charts into temperatures at various heights on the mountains in such a scenario. |
It is a difficult one, and I guess soundings would be useful in this situation.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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I have to admit that I am with Crowjersey when it comes to this thread. Basically all I want to know is: Is it looking like it will snow between now and the new year in Meribel? I have the double problem of it being my 30th Birthday whilst I am away, I am not sure I can cope with hitting the big 30 and no snow.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| CrowJersey wrote: |
| i find it really interesting reading the reports from the likes of carled, brian, skanky etc |
Me too. Keep it up chaps!
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Monkfish, dont look good for much snow anywhere, hope is wrong....
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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carled, yes its been replaced with a Bartlett High. 
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brian
brian
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carled, either that chart's updated or I'm seriously confused. It's (currently) showing southerlies right across the UK 
Although I s'pose the Scandi high and the possibility of a battleground could have the SE-England ramping crew a tad excited ....
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brian
brian
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lisach, that's not a proper Bartlett, too far south.
Thankfully !
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Just wondering where the weather gurus on got their expertise from? Is there an idiots guide to interpreting weather charts or forecasting on the internet for us mere mortals? Any books that you would particularly recommend? I'm probably a bit busy to take a meteorology degree just at the minute but I (and it appears others on the site) would like to expand my knowledge on the subject
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brian
brian
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Monkfish, as with metcheck and snow-forecast, theweatheroutlook are recycling the GFS output (the model we spend most time watching here) in a ski-centric fashion.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Roughly speaking, TWO is currently modeling warm weather in the Alps from Weds 13 to Sat 16 Dec (4 days).
Cold air and modest snow sweeps in from Sun 17 to Tues 26 Dec (10 days).
Temps ramp back up from Weds 27 onward for a few days (2+ days).
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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For anyone who thinks that global warming is a universal - how about this report dated yesterday
New Snowfall : 5 in 13 cm
24 hour Snowfall : 13 in 33 cm
Temperature : 29°F -2°C
Weather : Broken Clouds
Slope Conditions : Powder / Packed Powder
Base at Mountain base : 102 in 259 cm
Where?
Answers on a postcard to.....
I want snow for Xmas@snowheads.com
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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fatbob, Miami?
Thanksmicksup, will look at that later
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Smiffo, It's bloody cold here this morning!! At this moment 1115 it is -1 c outside our apartment in town and it is sunny. Last night went to -6 in town. Don't believe everything they say!
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brian
brian
Guest
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So this morning, in the shorter term (where it might actually come true) things look a bit better with freezing levels back to reasonably sensible levels by Sunday morning.
After that, we still have the difference skanky explains above.
- ECM has high pressure west of the UK and colder air over the alps with a couple of little lows sinking south (potential for some snowfall next Tuesday/Wednesday).
- GFS has the high building more over the continent, so the colder air is further east and the alps stay dry.
BGA, in my case my interest in weather has been built up from trying to spot nice calm sunny days to ski in Scotland, easier said than done
Following the weather forums can be quite educational, theweatheroutlook.co.uk , netweather.tv etc.
However, be warned that at this time of year they are infested with snow rampers desperate for that elusive white Christmas in the Home Counties  , mild ramping trolls winding them up, etc. etc.
A lot of pinches of salt are needed
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Seems to me that all the overnight* models want to build a big HP over Europe after the weekend. ECMWF & GEM still both want to run a LP (little agreement in size and path) across central Europe and drag some cold air down before the HP builds, so that could help trap some cold air under the it. GFS & UKMO also both run the LP through, much further north, but deeper so they still drag the cold air down. Timing looks like Sunday night/Monday but whether there's any snow depends on the LP - which there's little agreement on.
The FAX charts are showing a cold pool over the Med and a shallow LP forming around it, and affecting the Pyrennees and possibly Southern Alps as the week goes on. Might be worth keeping an eye on, but it looks like a weak feature (GFS shows it too).
The UK looks to get more SWlies next week.
*GFS updated to 06 while I was looking at it, which confused me a tad and may have affected my post.
Last edited by After all it is free  on Wed 13-12-06 11:39; edited 1 time in total
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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SNOWANDTREK - Thanks for that.
I have seen from a webcam that the snow that fell a few days ago is still sticking, which has surprised me.
How are the slopes ? Do you know ? Are they using any cannons ?
Questions questions questions !!
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| snowandtrek wrote: |
| Smiffo, It's bloody cold here this morning!! At this moment 1115 it is -1 c outside our apartment in town and it is sunny. Last night went to -6 in town. Don't believe everything they say! |
Yeah, you're sitting under HP with cloudless skies and some cold air still around. The warm air is supposed to pass through on Friday. How warm it actually gets (esp. at night) though is another matter.
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FAQ
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