 Poster: A snowHead
|
i'm no expert but this week seem's to be a wipe out for any new snowfall, and to make matters worse temps rising
So lets forget it and look forward to the following week espically for those Xmas Skiers (Me!!)
So Brain, Carled and any other forcasters, tells us, GSF Charts look encouraging, many are doing the snow dance (Dancers can take this week off, even divine intervention wont change anything)
I imagine there are alot of Xmas Skiers with no finger nails left.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
Well, it seems that people (as I said way back) don't want to hear it how it is. The truth is that many people "guessing" at the weather (including myself) have been concerned about the warmth of this coming week for a while. I posted back on the 6th December that the GFS trends were showing a worrying heat burst for this coming week and it looks like it may happen. Greg (kitenski) and I have been worriedly watching a spike of temperature around the 15th for over a week now, hoping to dismiss it as a far-off non-event, but just look at how it appears to be coming off as predicted way back by the gfs model... At the time I got a fair few "doom monger" comments (trust me, I'm no doom monger!) and the GFS charts looked briefly like they were opting for cooler conditions... alas, those charts are starting to disappear again.
The low temp charts may yet come back, but, I'm sorry to say, I don't think they will. To me it looks like a warm week. Tue & Wed warm-ish, Thursday, Friday & Saturday (particularly Friday) may be stupidly warm... I wouldn't be surprised to see daytime temps in low-ish parts of Europe get up close to 20 deg c again... I hope not, but it's on the cards from the current charts.
Sunday shows a chance of a breakdown with colder temps returning. By Monday it should be good and cold again. It should last all week, but there's currently a bit of a battle around Christmas eve/day between warm and cold. Hopefully the cold will win the battle!
Yes, it can change. Will it change? Who knows. Maybe. Personally I don't think so, based on today's charts and the trend that's been developing. Don't shoot the messenger and if you don't like what I'm saying, ignore me. CrowJersey asked and I'm telling him what I think.
|
|
|
|
|
|
brian
brian
Guest
|
| carled wrote: |
The low temp charts may yet come back, but, I'm sorry to say, I don't think they will. To me it looks like a warm week. Tue & Wed warm-ish, Thursday, Friday & Saturday (particularly Friday) may be stupidly warm... I wouldn't be surprised to see daytime temps in low-ish parts of Europe get up close to 20 deg c again... I hope not, but it's on the cards from the current charts.
|
I would be very surprised, it looks mild in Southern England and France's atlantic coast but under a calm HP with short daylight hours, I think alpine valley temps will struggle to get very high even if there is warmer air aloft.
.... and Tues/Wed are around average, slightly below in fact in many alpine areas (you doom-monger, you  ).
| Quote: |
Sunday shows a chance of a breakdown with colder temps returning. By Monday it should be good and cold again. |
It does look that way just now, the key imo is the HP currently shown slap bang over Southern England on Monday 18th. Fine where it is, further west is good but if it turns out to be further east, 
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
Pretty good agreement for it to be where we'd like it, though it'll have to move eastwards at some point. ECMWF doesn't show much of a problem with it though.
One thing that's worth pointing out is that under high pressure, the 850hpa level will be higher (~1800m for 1030hpa at sl). Daytime temps may be a bit warmer, but it should get sub-zero overnight. Whether it's warm enough for long enough to do much damage is a moot point - and probably needs local forecasters who know the terrain to be able say. It might be compounded by a lack of a decent base I suppose.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
TWO is modeling high temps for Austria through Sat 16 Dec, followed by much colder temps until Tues 26 Dec. It is showing light or heavy snow on 8 out of 10 days after next Sun.
For France, it is plotting light snow for 6 of the next 16 days. Temps still fairly high.
In short, the forecast for the Eastern Alps looks reasonably good. Things appear shakier in the West. Still early days, though.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
The local forecast which apears on the Saalbach site is always on the pessimistic side from us skiers point of view. They don't seem to be buying into high temps in the middle of the coming week. Even a bit of freeze/thaw lets the snow cannons run!
I'm still reasonably hopeful for the Xmas ski.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
I can;t get my little headf round the models,and ensembles, but Metcheck shows freezing levels rising to above 3000m by Wed,but dropping to below 700m by early next week. No precipitation though.
|
|
|
|
|
|
brian
brian
Guest
|
|
Back on the rollercoaster, 12z not looking good at T+120, ridging much weaker on this run I fear ....
|
|
|
|
|
|
brian
brian
Guest
|
|
.... hmmm, so there's the problem I mentioned above, a little Low runs out under Iceland and bumps our HP too far East, and the cold shot misses the western alps altogether.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
brian
brian
Guest
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
|
mmwwwwahahhh Verbier has fantastic conditions... (hope I'm not speaking too soon)...
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
|
please tell me it will be good snow at les arcs carled
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
|
|
|
brian
brian
Guest
|
|
CrowJersey, ok then, based on the latest run you'll be clinging to the high slopes of Flaine, but you might get some fresh snow up high. Take your wellies for in resort though
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
| Quote: |
| (Same run yesterday was horrible too, so don't get too depressed ). |
Keep your eye on the 12z over the winter, esp compared to the 06z. It does sometimes seem to favour the warmer runs.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
Did someone say wellys well there's a thing.
Anyone got a view on medium term prognosis for the (Tarentaise) season? Thinking about diving in and bagging a bargain but can't decide if Jan will be freezing and snowy or just freezing baseless poo  ?
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
CrowJersey, can't you cancel? If there is not a clear change this time next week I will pull the plug and take my holiday late January.
That I guess is the benefit of driving via Eurotunnel that you can change dates as required.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
CrowJersey, Like you I'm off skiing over Xmas and with the family booked in as well don't really have the chance of cancelling. Charts I have seen and understand show warmer weather this week but then cold again - I'm pinning my hopes on the web cam pictures I've been watching which show lots of piste bashing activities - not sure they would be that busy maintaining pistes if they thought it would all melt?
Mind you I freely admit to being a hopeless optomist - therefore it will be snowy and cold and Xmas will be great 
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
surely Boris, hotels/chalet's can't expect guests to turn up if there is either no snow or where there is its melting? Would it not be the most frustrating thing ever to be sat in a hotel waiting for it to get colder? Surely there has to be some compromise? The fact that I refused to pay a large deposit for my holiday is looking a wise decision.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
I am off to Meribel for the New Year, I normally enjoy the anticipation of my annual ski trip but this year has been hell!!! I would normally go away mid February so I have never endured this torture of waiting to see if there will be good snow or even any snow at all if some of you are to be beleived. Can anyone offer any kind of optimism in terms of the impending rising temps and aparent lack of snow on the horizon? 
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
| lisach wrote: |
CrowJersey, can't you cancel? If there is not a clear change this time next week I will pull the plug and take my holiday late January.
That I guess is the benefit of driving via Eurotunnel that you can change dates as required. |
Er.... no, Kids Holidays, White Christmas?
Eurotunnel? whats that? long way round from Jersey, Were only an hour by boat off the french coast,
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
sorry CrowJersey, I didn't mean you specifically. I assume that Condor aren't as flexible. Like you we 'were' looking forward to a white christmas but started to explain to the kids a couple of weeks ago that its possible that we delay, instead they can stay at home and play with their presents. That went down well and has lessened their disappointment, although not mine
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
|
Les Arcs? I have a friend taking his family there on the 16th asking me the very same thing... hmm... I don't see much change in the forecasts yet... very warm from now until after next weekend, then cooling down. Maybe a chance of precipitation... signs of a bit more if things pan out with a warm/cold air struggle pretty much slap bang over the alps... time will tell. High up (2000m+) should be fine though and most French resorts have loads to play with up there and they'll maintain the runs back down to resort too. You'll all be fine. Stop fretting.
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
thanks thats brightened my day now 
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The freezing level is up to 3000 metres In Morzine on Thursday.It hasn't been that high for a few weeks.Hope it is wrong !
Just as the web cam was looking nice and white as well.
I sincerely hope there will be snow there over the new year.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
| Quote: |
surely Boris, hotels/chalet's can't expect guests to turn up if there is either no snow or where there is its melting? Would it not be the most frustrating thing ever to be sat in a hotel waiting for it to get colder?
|
Hotels and chalets are businesses, they have no control over the snow. When you book the holiday it's done in good faith, I can't believe that anywhere in you documentation they've guaranteed snow.
Would you feel it OK to cancel if you'd booked to go to Tenerife and the forecast 2 weeks before you went was for rain?
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
fair point jonathancarty, but in Tenerife the weather would have far less impact on the activity of a holiday. Surely you cannot ski on grass or slush?
Interesting to get a viewpoint from a Chalet owner on this subject? What are guests going to do all week if the temps keep rising?
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
|
Looking at the 00z inits, GFS is a bit out on a limb for next week. ECMWF is very bullish about the HP staying over the UK and northerlies pushing down into Europe. It gets a reasonable amount of support from NOGAPS and GEM, while the UKMO model (whilst not being available that far) looks to be taking a similar line. GFS keeps the HP mainly over central Europe and thus the low pressure systems push through to the north. It'll be interesting to see which way the UKMO goes.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
|
Many Hotels I have used allowed cancellation up to the day before, some the week before, with no loss of deposit (or only the loss of a small deposit) which combined with the flexibility of Eurotunnel can be a good way to hedge your bets. This is another reason to DIY vs TO conditions where verything has to be paid for weeks in advance and refunds are not even a concept.
|
|
|
|
|
|
brian
brian
Guest
|
skanky,
I was just about to post something similar. Even the GFS has plenty of cold members in the ensemble.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
Thanks chaps, it's very good to be able to read intelligent interpretation of the technical stuff without having to figure it out for yourself, and having a debate between knowledgeable interpreters to get an idea of the range of possibilities; keep it up, please. Especially when the possibility of things improving is more than just a fervent prayer. 
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
|
brian, the operational run is an outlier after 20th. I do feel that there's a pattern change in the offing. Philip Eden has already pointed out that this SWly spell is a bit notable for its prolonged existence and intensity (he was talking about the UK, but it's all connected).
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DB, how much of a hill do you think 10 tons will cover?
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| skanky wrote: |
| Looking at the 00z inits, GFS is a bit out on a limb for next week. ECMWF is very bullish about the HP staying over the UK and northerlies pushing down into Europe. It gets a reasonable amount of support from NOGAPS and GEM, while the UKMO model (whilst not being available that far) looks to be taking a similar line. GFS keeps the HP mainly over central Europe and thus the low pressure systems push through to the north. It'll be interesting to see which way the UKMO goes. |
It sound great!! what does it mean 
Thing to possiably change for the better!! next week?
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
A number of the models don't (currently) agree with GFS about next week and look a little more optimistic. The differences aren't huge - they all bring high pressure into the situation - but the details are enough to make reasonable difference to the weather the Alps will experience. Don't know which will win out, but GFS is in the minority at the moment so we'd have to go for the ECMWF or somewhere between the two (like GEM), but that may change. No two models are alike, though I *think* (it was the case 12 years ago) that the GFS and ECMWF are more similar to each other than they are to the UKMO GM (though that's been updated since then).
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FAQ
