 Poster: A snowHead
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carled, I'm banking on Metcheck's forecast of dropping temps mid of next week & heavy snow next Tue/Wed (for Tignes). Please don't disillusion me yet! 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Hmmm... based purely on the GFS chart, Tue is maybe a tad early. Weds is a possibility, especially if the temps drop as indicated by most models. If there is a mega dump on the 29th, I suggest that we all bow down and praise my puppy's doo-doo as it did (and you can check back through the thread history) predict the serious onset of the season starting on the 29th... 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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carled, So fresh snow until the weekend, then fine weather for skiing on it! sounds good to me 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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cathy, those charts I posted a couple of days back indicated that the warm spell would last until the 29th/30th anyway... and I suppose that the disappearance of the predicted precipitation from the charts just goes to show how hard it is to get these things right apart from in general. Don't despair... make the most of what you get, you can't change it by getting depressed about it!
Edited to say that the newspaper report link posted is typical scaremongering. OK, it's been a warmer start than normal, but it's not even December yet! FFS, stop writing off the season before it even starts. I suppose that it wouldn't sell so many papers without the sensationalist stories though...
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Weeeellll, I reckon if the charts keep coming into line you have a chance... Wednesday/Thursday next week for a good end to the week for you? Like you say, fingers crossed. Localised conditions can sometimes pull colder air lower down than the freezing level would indicate, which gives snow where rain may be expected.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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carled, yes I agree 110% with you. And recall The Express printed only three weeks ago that we would be having a severe 'Arctic' Winter. Its an attempt to worry people and sensationalise. When it comes to weather stick to the specialist sites, i.e the forum on www.netweather.tv
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You know it makes sense.
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My Swiss colleague came by again this morning.
He lives near Interlaken. He said that in his & other gardens around town the buds of flowers were begining to grow(Just like in Spring)  . They have never seen this before .
Also more word from the old guys who live up in the mountains.
The word around Interlaken now, is that Winter will still be & sudden & late. It will also last long into (May) which they dont like around here .
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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FFS... 
It's warm.
It's warmer than usual for this time of year in many locations.
Just because it is warm now does not mean it'll be warm next week.
Just because it is warm now does not mean it'll be cold next week.
Random events (which the weather is beyond a few days) cannot be predicted by cows lying down, the amount of berries on trees, old men in mountain huts whose beards are twitching, what happened last year, what happened last week or even what happened yesterday...
Can we just establish firmly once and for all that IT IS NOT EVEN DECEMBER YET!!! You CANNOT expect snow to be around at this time of year as a guarantee. This is why it is known as PRE season and the prices are cheap. Just because the last 10 years has seen snow by November 15th (or whenever) doesn't mean it has to be there this year and that the absence of snow is evidence of catastrophic climate change! It could be a one-year blip for all we know. Maybe this is the norm and the preceding 10 years were a meterological "blip"?
So... we've established that Winter is "late" starting and the mountain men are predicting that Winter will be sudden and late... amazing, absolutely amazing. How do they do it?
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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>> Its warmer than its ever been before
Blimey, that's a fantastic sweeping statement, are you sure???????
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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kitenski, Certainly am. Am old mountain man from la Rosiere told me so.
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ah, but my T leaves this morning told me from the 10th Dec heavy snow and cold temps will sweep the alps.....
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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carled, My mother swears by thistle down.
(spot the quote)
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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I was disappointed to see a lot of green/brown again on the La Ros/Val T webcams this morning 
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^ you've got more positive and realistic all of a sudden stanton - what happened?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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stanton, I have to agree with you. Look around Europe, the amount of cold available is limited at this stage and Siberia and Lapland are having record breaking warmth, let alone France, Austria and Switzerland. And spare a thought for Belgium and The Vosges.
I wish Metcheck and Snow-Forecast would stop raising hopes as there is little obvious to come for 3-4 weeks at least.
Now of course this can change but the important signs and areas of cool weather that are good signs for snow are not there.
And am I gloating, well no I have a ski trip over Christmas so I get no pleasure out of this but we have to face facts that we may have just a unlucky year or GW is really kicking in.
The sooner they extend fast direct electric trains to Alpine regions and reduce the number of stupidly cheap flights the better, ditto 4x4's.
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| Quote: |
I wish Metcheck and Snow-Forecast would stop raising hopes as there is little obvious to come for 3-4 weeks at least.
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I hope you're wrong as I'm in the Alps over Christmas - however I would tend to agree with many of the comments here that no-one can predict 3-4 weeks ahead. The BBC weather forecast can't even tell me accurately what the weather is doing today!
I looked back at similar threads from this time last year - major snow down to resorts came middle of December, which is 3 weeks away.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| lisach wrote: |
| I wish Metcheck and Snow-Forecast would stop raising hopes as there is little obvious to come for 3-4 weeks at least.. |
err, what are you using to forecast 3-4 weeks out????
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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lisach, what is the point in posting
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| there is little obvious to come for 3-4 weeks at least |
, hmmm? The damn weather people can't even predict accurately more than a few days ahead, and even then the details are often wrong!
Evidence: look at the charts - one from the 22nd, one from the 24th and one from today. Find a common point on all three and see how wildly different things are...
(caveat - the last one is the 06z run which uses slightly different data, but it's still valid to illustrate my point!)
I'd say there's CURRENTLY a promising lump of precipitation between the 3rd & the 5th with low enough temps to give some decent white stuff... HOWEVER this can all change in an instant and it may all have disappeared from the forecasts inside a day or two.. and then it may reappear... who knows...? If, by Weds this week, that lump of precip is still there and the temps are still looking cold, then I'd start getting excited about it, until then, it represents a bit of hope and certainly a lot more hope than, "there is little obvious to come for 3-4 weeks at least".
Stop posting stupid scare-monger stories about lack of snow when the outlook is impossible to predict.
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Without Snow in Austria this Xmas & New Year it is going to be oe hell of a big party in the towns , Bars open allday
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Poster: A snowHead
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lisach, I'm not sure that "odd" is an appropriate term for weather - unless you find your terrace ankle deep in frogs - but MeteoSwiss have confirmed that this has been the warmest Autumn in the last 100 years.
It is possible that the other 99 ones were "odd" of course.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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I don't know much about weather, except the mad complexity of it all, but empirically the current spell of weather is certainly both unusual, and apparently unusually difficult to forecast (I suppose the two go together given the reliance on modelling recurring patterns). I spent a week sailing recently and it was astonishing that even the forecasts for the following 24 hours were dramatically wrong on all days except one. That really is extremely unusual - and I found it particularly annoying that the forecasts were given with all the usual certainty and precision. It would have helped much more with planning if the Met Office would give some indication of their confidence in the forecasting. For example: IMHO, or YGIAGAO.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Snow to 1600 tonight, according to Meteoschweiz and then Bise for the rest of the week - about bloody time!
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eng_ch, that across the whole of Switzerland, or just certain areas? (please say Zermatt!  )
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Expect similar from the MetO at the end of the week (or early next). And the year's going to be pretty close for the UK (or England at least).
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so i am reading the meteo.fr site right yeah, in tignes alone there predicting no snow for the next few days and freezing levels only dropping to 2100 with temps of around 2 degrees. now im no expert, but surley for it to be end of november and it still to be damn warm can't be good for the season. i have no idea on forcasting or how to understand it, but not good right.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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skanky, thanks for that link, interesting.
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benpudney, From my understanding of the various threads/forecasts/comments that means its not good right now. In a weeks time the temp could fall and there could be several feet of snow.
Being similarly concerned this time last year, general view is that it is still early. Often snow for opening week and main Christmas break can be as late as Christmas Eve!
I'm not worried yet.....
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FAQ
Any weather experts like to give their opinion on a likely forecast for next week, in the Tignes area? 
for myself and all those 