 Poster: A snowHead
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Why is Mont Blanc higher than other Alps. There are plenty of good mountains in the Alps, but Mont Blanc is higher, why aren't they all the same?
I,ve checked in my 'ology' degree pack and can't find the reason ! 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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But surely if all the mountains were as tall as Mont Blanc, they would also have a similar level of whiteness, and therefore they all would have to be called Mont Blanc.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Ray Zorro, not the ones in Italy, Austria, or parts of Switzerland they wouldn't.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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beeryletcher, There's an Aiguille Verte.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Swirly, There's a Petite Aiguille Verte too. They were all nearly renamed Weisse Spitze, Grune Spitze und Kleine Grune Spitze, but then we rescued them and their surrender monkey owners !
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You see the thing is that these perfect predictors just don't exist. You'll get 10 blokes up the mountain saying that because the marmots are walking around on their front paws or the herons are building their nests out of asbestos or the newts are swimming upside down that it's going to be a hot/warm/wet/cold/icy/freezing/arctic/scorching/damp winter...
It's a well known phenomenon that tends to affect middle-aged ladies on Blackpool pier when dealing with fortune tellers... they come away having heard 2 correct "guesses" out of 50 and think the fortune teller is amazing. I absolutely GUARANTEE you that if you actually went around to these mountain men, carefully documented their predictions over the years for a few years then checked the results, you'd find them all averaging out at about even - exactly the same as you and I could get over a period of time just by guessing. Anyone can guess lucky once... keep doing it year after year and you're getting somewhere, but it's only like flipping a coin 10 times and getting ten heads or ten tails coming up - it ain't that hard to do! The wily old buggers are experts in "reminding" you what they predicted as well... normally only when they get it right, otherwise they keep their heads down.
Weather patterns are brought on by changing ocean temperatures, atmospheric temperature fluctuations, rainfall in other parts of the world, you name it... Some old codger sitting halfway up the local mountain with no access to anything other than what he can see with his own eyes is not - trust me - NOT going to be able to do any better a job than a computer could when predicting the weather for more than a few days ahead. I grant you that they can read subtle signs towards the end of the day about what tomorrow may bring, but not for anything more than a few days ahead. Utter poppycock. Anyone believing any of these "old codger" predictions needs a blooming reality check in my book.
Stanton... not wanting to pursue it overmuch.. but come on mate... posting what you did with two sad faces in the post is hardly saying, "one of my mates told me this, but the story is obviously completely ludicrous" now, is it? It kind of indicates that you are accepting the story as told... As I said before, it's your choice to do so and they may even be right. But if they are, it's nothing but a lucky guess, trust me on this one... 
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carled, you are not suggesting that you think Stanton was serious, are you? Anyone who seriously believes that he was being serious, seriously needs to take a sanity test 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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chris, nice one chris, hows lynnes head? tell her it was great chatting on friday at the hen do!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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snowangel., 'how's Lin's head?' I won't give the dirty answer , I'll just say "its as pretty as ever".
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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carled,
I got a fair amount of faith in the old locals. They know when to bring the cows down 
You sound as though you trust all information from computer predictions? In the past 2 months they have been pretty inaccurate in Switzerland.
I like to hear infomation from a variety of sources & thats all I was doing is passing on info.
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You know it makes sense.
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Au contraire... I don't trust ANY prediction more than, at most, one week ahead, be it from old men, groundhogs, newts, herons, marmots or bbc weather presenters... Oh and especially not snowguess. Just watch the gfs prints for a few days to watch how much they change.
Oh and see what happens? I've only just let the world know I'm not returning to Serre Che this winter and look at what the snowgods are doing... Nice pics Chris!
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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stanton, carled, Is the truth not closer to easiski's point. If you've lived all you life (or at least, enough of it) in one valley, with it's particular patterns, that you ought to get a reasonable feel for short term weather? I grant you, anything further out than tomorrow morning/evening will probably be a little optimistic. I reckon I can call the PDS reasonably well having been there quite a bit.
And that said, sadly, unless Serre C. has even weirder weather than alluded to, chris, your lovely dump of snow is about as indicative of a good winter as the current hail on my hotel window in Amsterdam. If it were to (and I do hope not) warm up and rain for a week...(as is entirely possble, although I trust not forecast)... 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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I don't know, I still have a reasonable amount of faith in mountain men. After all, weather patterns, like everything else do follow a sort of pattern (bad english there). If you know that a particular set of things happened in a particular order etc. etc. several times in your life, and that was followed by a particular sort of winter, it's reasonable to thinkthea pattern will be followed. All people who live on the land actually need to become adept at predicting the weather - their lives depend on it. carled, Am I right in assuming you're a townie? No-one is saying they're infallible, but just that they're probably as good at long term predictions as the charts.
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brian
brian
Guest
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Nope. Not a townie... an in-betweenie! Actually was a fair fisherman in my youth and I'm good at spotting impending rain! Handy on the golf course these days...
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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All the mountain men here have, expecting a harsh winter, padded and insulated their bodies with newspaper and sewn themselves into their clothes and I intend to do likewise tomorrow. Now, where's my kneedle and cotton? 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| chris wrote: |
| The Serre Chevalier today. I would estimate 75% of the pistes have good snow cover |
Please tell me you at least skied down after walking all that way up
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Here a link from todays Swiss Press
http://www.20min.ch/news/bern/story/15710662
It says despite the warm temperatures bookings in Adelboden/Lenk & other Bernese areas are by & large un affected for Xmas & New Year because people just like to get together at this time in the mountains regardless of snow condtions. Skiing actually becomes a secondary activivty.
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stanton, I know one snowfall doesn't make winter, but it is a tad ironic that you've posted that on the day that most of the alps had a dump!
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You know it makes sense.
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My knodels are so big that I have trouble getting them into the top drawer of the freezer.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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My point on the "mountain man" predictions are backed up by what Charlotte says.. they won't make concrete predictions, just vague "it'll be a bit warmer this winter" or "it won't be as cold as usual" or "it'll be colder than average" and so on. Exactly the vague, non-measurable non-statements made by supposed psychics, palm readers and so on, where there is always room for ambiguity and misinterpretation. This way, whatever happens they can claim to have known in advance, foretold it and perpetuate the myth that "the mountain men know..."
I promise you that whatever the winter brings, by next spring there will be hundreds of wise old sages nodding knowingly and saying, "I told you it was going to be warm/cold/hot/wet/dry, didn't I? Hmmm...? You young whippersnappers don't know you're born, etc..." and half of them will have said the exact opposite in their "predictions". They cover all bases by saying one thing to half the townsfolk and something different to the others so that, come the analysis, they can turn to at least some of them to be be backed up on their prediction.
Anyhow. We're going in circles. Some people believe that the local weather sages "know" and some don't. I'm fine with that. What I'm not fine with is the starting of rumours of a "bad winter" ahead based on idle speculation, wild guesses, callouses, various wildlife and other "signs". We get enough panicky newbies on here fretting about whether or not there'll be snow in x resort on March 14th or whatever to start adding fuel to the fires of uncertainty. As Brian sensibly points out, trying to predict the weather based on cycles is not going to get you far... Just because a season in 1980-whatever had no snow until November 30th then a bumper season doesn't mean it'll happen again if there's no snow until November 30th, neither does it mean it won't. No-one knows what lies ahead, but we will all have to make do with whatever it brings anyway, so why worry? Be happy, enjoy your skiing/boarding/whatever and, if you're unlucky enough to have poor snow conditions, make the best of what you do get and hope for better luck next time.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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carled rumours of a "bad winter" ahead based on idle speculation.
The problem is it is & is true for the last decade or so.
The warms conditons in recent years in October & November has not allowed the ground to freeze. The first high elevation snows are coming much later & the lower elevation snow do not not settle like they used to.
The Ski Seasons for even lower elevation resorts used to kick of reguarly in Europe December 1st sometimes earlier. The last few seasons has seen them struggling to open befroe Xmas & thats only thanks or no thanks to machine snow.
The warmer ground has a knock on effect throughout the season for the stability of the snowpack i.e Pistes break up & fall apart much quicker & when the big dumps come, the avalanche danger is even greater bringing away not just snow but the mountainside as well.
AxsMan
Most Ski Glaciers in Europe will be gone or unusable within 10 years. Just look how many closed down this summer.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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stanton, Time will tell, If you are right we better all get booking 10 weeks a year while we can - works for me! 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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FAQ
Still with the global warming thing, it'll have to be Mont Vert one day 
