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Excessively high prices for 2022?!

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
GreenDay wrote:
Quote:

The simplest reason is if people have missed out for 2 years, then they want a 2nd trip.

Now you are just making it up on the hoof


I left out may - may want.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Greenday - I think you are right in respect of the complexity of the factors which will emerge from pandemic.

- operators who have gone out of business (reduced supply)
- massive family savings - bigger than previous episodes of arrested consumption (funds for vacation available)
- government wanting a lot of revenue to pay for pandemic by raising taxes (hitting family savings)
- capacity for domestic vacation increasing during pandemic (air b&b prices escalating in england)
- increased complexity in managing continental vacations (Brexit-related complexity in insurance etc)
- changing work patterns due to pandemic and accumulated holiday entitlement (use it for skiing)
- employers demanding commitment from employees as the economy opens again (reduced time for skiing)

And so on. As with most things to do with pandemic, what is true this week could be false next week. Objectively, many people have accumulated savings. And government wants its money back.

Oh...small point. What if immunity from the vaccine only lasts a few weeks? Most virus’ become more transmittable but less deadly over time ... we will just have to see HOW LONG all this lasts...time will tell I am afraid.....time to invest in the vaccine companies if we all need 2-monthly vaccinations


Last edited by Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person on Thu 14-01-21 8:45; edited 2 times in total
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
snowhound wrote:
I’m in the process of organising a large school trip for next season. According to the company I’m dealing with (an online aggregator), the chalet industry is 70-80% down in capacity for next season, particularly for those companies who rent their beds from third parties-they’re just not prepared (yet) to commit the paying for those beds. Maybe they will later in the year when they get a feel for demand? Lots of empty chalets and chalet hotels which are just not being picked up for tour ops and so will be empty unless the owners can rent them directly themselves. Would be interested if people are seeing that on the ground.
That said, prices they’ve quoted are not much higher than previous years.


I think I paid a good price, €385 for 6 nights.
Reading what you posted, there could actually end up being a glut of cheap options instead of them staying empty.
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@Mr.Egg, Very possibly for those people who are happy to DIY and book all the separate components themselves.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Is the actual demand significantly higher for next year.

The people who would ski this year (and can't), would most likely ski next year too.

Where is the EXTRA demand?
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Quote:

I have over 50 days of annual leave this year - not sure how much I can carry over yet!

@Mr.Egg, as far as I am aware, any untaken holidays from 2020 that are carried over to 2021 are then allocated by the employer at a date in the calendar that suits the employer. There is no saying the employer will allocate them during the ski season.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Perhaps some tour operators are cashing in on people's desperation to book something, to book ANYTHING. Low deposits will lure people in and improve their cash flow. The ski industry had not been doing particularly well before the pandemic. The suggestion that 1 - 2 seasons of people not being able to ski at all will create bonanza conditions seems far-fetched to me.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
pam w wrote:
Perhaps some tour operators are cashing in on people's desperation to book something, to book ANYTHING.

That’s what I think too
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
Reports that bookings by the over-50s have surged in the last few weeks. How much longer will I be able to restrain myself from signing up for a "Call the Midwife" coach tour? Cost no object. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55654127
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Ski the Net with snowHeads
pam w wrote:
Reports that bookings by the over-50s have surged in the last few weeks. How much longer will I be able to restrain myself from signing up for a "Call the Midwife" coach tour? Cost no object. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55654127

It's bound to happen!

The oldies are getting their vaccine shots first. Now they're safe to move about, they WILL!

God help us if it turns out the vaccinated can spread the virus while not getting sick themselves.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
pam w wrote:
Perhaps some tour operators are cashing in on people's desperation to book something, to book ANYTHING. Low deposits will lure people in and improve their cash flow. The ski industry had not been doing particularly well before the pandemic. The suggestion that 1 - 2 seasons of people not being able to ski at all will create bonanza conditions seems far-fetched to me.


Refreshingly, I spoke to "my" holiday provider earlier today, to ask whether I should pay a deposit on 2022 (in case I needed to have something "solid" to move my 2021 money to, if cancelled).

"No, no panic, give it a couple of weeks and see what happens".

No suggestion at all of a price hike (next year's prices were already published and remain unchanged), or a surge in demand.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
I've mentioned my reasons over a number of threads for not booking for this season and right now I'm thinking the same for next.

The 'Central Committee' as I now call them (Prime and First Ministers and their various Health/Science apparatchiks) have on a few occasions now seemed to 'accidentally' mention that restrictions may/will/could possibly be needed next winter and although there is always some immediate degree of outcry about it that they then follow up with a subsequent explanation or expansion of what they meant, there is never quite a full retraction.

I don't believe for a minute that these folks are simply thinking aloud but instead are deliberately placing clues for the purposes of expectation management. They might be right to do that, I accept that folks opinions will differ on that very point but its enough to put me off booking until things are much clearer. Which probably means well into the summer at least.

If that means I have to pay more then so be it. As long as its what I define as a holiday - i.e. I can do as I please when I please as long as it's within the long established laws, rules and conventions that we have observed all through our lives.

As I've said before I'm not paying ski holiday money to do Butlins on snow. Especially in an FFP2 mask!
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
valais2 wrote:

Oh...small point. What if immunity from the vaccine only lasts a few weeks? Most virus’ become more transmittable but less deadly over time ... we will just have to see HOW LONG all this lasts...time will tell I am afraid.....time to invest in the vaccine companies if we all need 2-monthly vaccinations


It seems (to me) that this is not the case and that vaccination (infection) protection lasts a lot longer (potentially, variant strains aside), no?
ski holidays
 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
robboj wrote:
I've mentioned my reasons over a number of threads for not booking for this season and right now I'm thinking the same for next.

The 'Central Committee' as I now call them (Prime and First Ministers and their various Health/Science apparatchiks) have on a few occasions now seemed to 'accidentally' mention that restrictions may/will/could possibly be needed next winter and although there is always some immediate degree of outcry about it that they then follow up with a subsequent explanation or expansion of what they meant, there is never quite a full retraction.

I don't believe for a minute that these folks are simply thinking aloud but instead are deliberately placing clues for the purposes of expectation management. They might be right to do that, I accept that folks opinions will differ on that very point but its enough to put me off booking until things are much clearer. Which probably means well into the summer at least.

If that means I have to pay more then so be it. As long as its what I define as a holiday - i.e. I can do as I please when I please as long as it's within the long established laws, rules and conventions that we have observed all through our lives.

As I've said before I'm not paying ski holiday money to do Butlins on snow. Especially in an FFP2 mask!

+1

Sometimes, I pay more to have a peace of mind. In this case, I gladly NOT pay in advance in order to have a peace of mind.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
abc wrote:

God help us if it turns out the vaccinated can spread the virus while not getting sick themselves.


Surely at this stage this is like worrying that the sky might fall on your head? I mean, sure, it's possible, but a big problem? No evidence, in any form, yet.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
under a new name wrote:
abc wrote:

God help us if it turns out the vaccinated can spread the virus while not getting sick themselves.


Surely at this stage this is like worrying that the sky might fall on your head? I mean, sure, it's possible, but a big problem? No evidence, in any form, yet.

Well, many also felt that way last year when China lockdown its population.

Did the sky fall? Nope. Just the NHS hospitals nearly did.

A herd of vaccinated spreaders traveling far and wide is going to be .... great!!!

Oh btw, do you think the not-yet-vaccinated will not follow right along?
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
under a new name wrote:
abc wrote:

God help us if it turns out the vaccinated can spread the virus while not getting sick themselves.


Surely at this stage this is like worrying that the sky might fall on your head? I mean, sure, it's possible, but a big problem? No evidence, in any form, yet.


I've no doubt in due course it will become like flu in that we will need to annually inoculate the medically vulnerable and the occupationally exposed such as health and care workers

I'm more vexed by the potential effects of the 'mutant strains' pantomime. We need some world wide co-operation and collusion to stop it becoming some kind of new gunboat diplomacy.

The pitfalls of the status quo are many.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@abc, ...particularly when it will be seen as massively unfair that the vaccinated elderly will be able to travel months before the unvaccinated younger generations-who are, don't forget, those hardest hit economically by lockdowns. Would feel like kicking the youngsters whilst they're down....
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snowhound wrote:
@abc, ...particularly when it will be seen as massively unfair that the vaccinated elderly will be able to travel months before the unvaccinated younger generations-who are, don't forget, those hardest hit economically by lockdowns. Would feel like kicking the youngsters whilst they're down....

That's why I'm a bit concerned that we may have a 3rd wave before the winter is over.

Once the oldies are vaccinated and death rate drops, the government may have no choice but to abandon all restrictions. Then the virus will start to circulate widely, and suddenly people realize it can sicken or even kill the young just the same! (it's already happening right now, despite all the restrictions) Plus, it will infect and kill the oldies who can't be vaccinated for whatever reason.

Right now, the transmission has been kept in check with restrictions. Once the restriction is lifted, we WILL have outbreaks again.

The only way to break the chain is vaccinate a major portion of the population. But until then, the oldies need to stay home AFTER they're vaccinated, until the younger ones also have a chance on being vaccinated. That said, what "need to" happen and what WILL happen are not likely to be the same.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
No price hike from the very helpful Hotel Victoria in Verbier , very understanding very polite , simply transferred our 21 booking to revised Feb half term dates in 22 at no extra cost ......inflation beating and exemplary standards of customer service
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I think one of the biggest reasons is that there is less on the market from the tour operators so those who are really wanting to go away next year and want to get something booked up are going to mean that there is a decent demand for the limited places available.

I would not be surprised if everything went well in the world into the summer / vaccinations etc that we will see the tour operators putting back on many of the places they previously had. I realise many of these are normally rented for the season well in advanced but I think it will be different this year - landlord's will be happy to get any money in so suspect they will be happy to leases at short notice.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Bear in mind that the number of physical beds available is no less than it is currently. Most owners and agencies don't usually take bookings until the current season is over. But the big tour operators have a problem, because their model is to block-book accommodation now for the following year. But no one is interested in doing that because of COVID uncertainty - what chalet/hotel/apartment owner or agency wants a repeat of the whole cycle of indecision and uncertainty around /cancellations/refunds that they had this season? So I imagine that yes, there's a genuine shortage of accommodation for any TO who wants to market now, but come the summer/autumn the situation will be much clearer. At which point things will either be back to normal or owners will actually be desperate to fill empty beds.

A long-winded way of saying that I don't see the merit of paying a massive premium to book now.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Further to previous I had a look. A Crystal Ski package to a hotel I stayed in in Obergurgl is currently less than I paid for the same hotel in the same January week in 2018. So prices are certainly not higher -yet!

I'm now wondering whether to book now and lock in that price. £100 deposit each until late October with full protection if it all goes tatas skyward again?
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A lot of currently closed hotels haven't bothered to put next years availability and prices onto the likes of booking,com yet. once they know they can open and demand is there they will update the rest of 2021 and 2022 with it. A lot of the tourist industry is on furlough or equivalent, hence supply looks like it isnt there, but it will be in due course. Its a bit like Swiss and Austria hotels, confirming Xmas and half-term bookings (and other weeks for that matter) for "regular" guests before opening it out to the general public. A lot of accommodation doesn't book more than a year ahead in normal year.

re overall demand, there will be broadly the same amount of "people who go on a ski holiday" in 2022 as there was in previous years, and people won't be going twice at the peak weeks, which s what really drives the prices. Yes some may have an extra weekend break or whatever, but it isn't a question of "everyone's missed out this year so there will be twice as much demand next year"
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As a group stayed in the same chalet in la Plagne in 2018 and 2019, mid Feb both times ca £6-700pp inc transfers from Geneva. This year same place mid/late Jan £895 pp and no transfers included so we went elsewhere as that's about £300pp more. However, looked online the Chalet is just about booked up so some people are happy to pay that. Guessing that the combination of Covid and Brexit has had big impact on them.

We've booked late Jan in Madonna di Campiglio with Crystal £800pp half board, flights and transfer but got the last 3 rooms in the preferred hotel. Went for a package for extra consumer protection. The hotel was already full for the first two weeks in Feb so as price seemed fair we felt it was best to book now. I'd guess that was a similar price to last year.

We're also looking at DIY self catering in Corvara early Feb 2022. Apartments are either full/almost full but as mentioned above a few haven't released their rooms yet. The place we stayed in 2020 released their rooms last week, it was a very similar price but they hardly have any availability, no doubt carry overs from last year plus early bookings. FYI, found it was better to go via the local websites rather than booking.com as some places obviously just use the latter to fill empty rooms so you could get availability from e.g. the alta badia website when booking.com was showing as having none (IIRC booking.com charge ca 15%+VAT and have strict rules about pricing to try to prevent places using them for free advertising then offering e.g. a 10% discount on their own website).

So from direct(ish) comparisons 1 out of 3 big increase, 2 out of 3 pretty similar price but booking up very early.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
I suspect some booking websites, like flight sellers (and perhaps also some accommodation providers) like to deliberately engender an indication of low availability / high demand. E.g. say "last few rooms available" but leave out "(at this price, and by the way we've only released 6 rooms so far; we're keeping back the other 44 to release them slowly and maximise our income)".

Clearly not everyone does it, but I am sure plenty do.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Quote:

I tend to think these factors that should increase demand will be tempered by a big reduction in disposable income, coupled with reduced confidence about future finances.

That extra £100bn of savings accured during the first lockdown is going to go somewhere, nevermind the recent one
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
ecureuil wrote:
I suspect some booking websites, like flight sellers (and perhaps also some accommodation providers) like to deliberately engender an indication of low availability / high demand. E.g. say "last few rooms available" but leave out "(at this price, and by the way we've only released 6 rooms so far; we're keeping back the other 44 to release them slowly and maximise our income)".

Clearly not everyone does it, but I am sure plenty do.


And, 'viewed 48 times in the last hour'.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
One reason to consider booking at this point (and a reason I've re-started making travel bookings in recent weeks) is that the current very flexible policies may not last much longer. e.g. at the moment, a basic BA ticket has the kind of flexibility that would normally require paying 3-10x the price.

At some point in the next few months, I expect the travel industry to revert to more traditional policies. There's some early signs of this with new fare types that BA has just released to the travel trade, which require passengers to pay for the potential flexibility that is currently free.

Having a bunch of flights in the bag under this seasons cancellation/refund policies, but for next season, could prove very beneficial. £100 return flights London-Geneva for any date you choose won't be hanging around long.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
snowdave wrote:
One reason to consider booking at this point (and a reason I've re-started making travel bookings in recent weeks) is that the current very flexible policies may not last much longer. e.g. at the moment, a basic BA ticket has the kind of flexibility that would normally require paying 3-10x the price.


good point.
Just reserved accommodation in Italy for Feb next year, deposit zero, 30% due end November, balance due on arrival, full refund if cancel within 60 days so basically no risk until end November.

Re BA, they are just waving the fee to change, any price difference is payable so is not the same as fully flexible, still handy though. For flights before 30-Apr-22 BA website states

"We’ve waived our change booking fee so you will not be charged, although you will need to pay any difference in fare."
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Quote:
as far as I am aware, any untaken holidays from 2020 that are carried over to 2021 are then allocated by the employer at a date in the calendar that suits the employer
Shocked Maybe in Dickensian times, or in the case of unscrupulous bosses who don't give a toss about their employees...But surely not for the majority of 2021 employers?
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
richb67 wrote:

Re BA, they are just waving the fee to change, any price difference is payable so is not the same as fully flexible, still handy though. For flights before 30-Apr-22 BA website states

"We’ve waived our change booking fee so you will not be charged, although you will need to pay any difference in fare."


That's correct, but is only a part of it... if the flight you book is cancelled, you can change for free, to any other flight within 365 days of booking.

It's relatively easy to work out which London/Geneva flights in May are highly likely to be cancelled, in which case you can move them to whenever you want, without paying any extra. If they aren't cancelled, you take the voucher option.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@mountainaddict, The problem most employers will have with carried forward leave will be logistical. They cannot effectively, let everyone take, what could be double leave at the normal busy times. Just not enough weeks in the year. They will have to be able to insist that some is taken outside peak times, or they will simply cease to operate for weeks at a time.

Most employment contracts stipulate how much, if any, leave can be carried forward. and for how long. The same rules ought mostly to have been applied in the last year, even if working from home.
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Mr.Egg wrote:
pam w wrote:
Unless I had some compelling reason to book now, I don't think I'd be taking much notice of prices more than a year hence.


I think demand is going to be mental.
If vaccines dont work, then we cant play turtle forever


I'm not sure I've ever played turtle. How does it work? Puzzled
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
@Bergmeister, jump in an ice bath a certain member of your body will show you
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mountainaddict wrote:
Quote:
as far as I am aware, any untaken holidays from 2020 that are carried over to 2021 are then allocated by the employer at a date in the calendar that suits the employer
Shocked Maybe in Dickensian times, or in the case of unscrupulous bosses who don't give a toss about their employees...But surely not for the majority of 2021 employers?


THere is no legal right an employer has to allow you to carry leave over.
I am allowed to carry 20 over, but must be used in a 2 year cycle.
My other half had to get 5 days approved to be carried over.
A lot depends on the business, its business needs & how certain posts can be covered, etc. Christmas for example, is usually dependent on if she had worked the previous year xmas or not
Your employer can also force you to take annual leave with enough notice.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Some decent priced large chalets if you look hard enough & the group is big enough.
Most of the ones I have found usually turn up on the catered chalets sites for previous years.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Yes the leave policy at my work is unchanged. Only allowed to carry forward 5 days and it must be used within 2 months of the new leave cycle.

I can’t imagine many employers allowing people to carry forward as mush as they want.
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I think a fair few people have let this year’s holiday money stay either with the operators or stashed away, and therefore can have two holidays for the price of one “seemingly”.
I booked with peak retreats, paid in full and have moved booking to next year, leaving them with my 1k paid in the hopes that they survive. I know I could get £4.50 interest but I would rather help them keep in business.
Also next year we can have (hopefully) most meals out and not have to worry about finances!
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snowdave wrote:
richb67 wrote:

Re BA, they are just waving the fee to change, any price difference is payable so is not the same as fully flexible, still handy though. For flights before 30-Apr-22 BA website states

"We’ve waived our change booking fee so you will not be charged, although you will need to pay any difference in fare."


That's correct, but is only a part of it... if the flight you book is cancelled, you can change for free, to any other flight within 365 days of booking.

It's relatively easy to work out which London/Geneva flights in May are highly likely to be cancelled, in which case you can move them to whenever you want, without paying any extra. If they aren't cancelled, you take the voucher option.


thanks for that, interestingly that detail is absent from their standard Covid page but I did find it buried on an FAQ page. ATM mid Feb flights next year seem to be holding high prices, flights to late March this year are cancelled for the next few weeks and are dirt cheap for the few days after that. So do I risk booking a couple of flights assuming they'll be cancelled next week and I can then get next years at that price or do i hold on to see what happens to prices... worst case I cancel and get a voucher. Hmm...
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