 Poster: A snowHead
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Is anyone else finding the glimmers of hope have got a smidge brighter with the vaccine news? we have half term flights booked for Salzburg and (can cancel for free) a hotel in Hinterglemm. I'm optimistic by nature so can't help feeling this could happen....
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Vaccine is fantastic news IMHO. Just hoping they can get enough out in time and clear all approvals etc.
Chance of a near "normal" ski holiday for a family who cannot quarantine on either end, full operations on lifts but perhaps slightly curtailed après:
December = 10%
January = 33%
February = 66+%
March = 95+%
fingers crossed....
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Hotelplan (Inghams, Total, Esprit, Flexiski) just cancelled all holidays until 2 Jan 21.
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At the planned initial rate of vaccinating c. 2% of people/month, I'm optimistic about 2021/22!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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The news yesterday really cheered me up & whilst I'll accept my NY & 2 jan trips being cancelled I'd really hope for half term & then a couple of March ones.
Only down side is I heard its 2 jabs 3 weeks apart & not affective for another 2 weeks, so 5 weeks in total before your good to go. Add that to the news that they are targeting the elderly first & you come to the scenario that the season is over before your good to go.
I'm just waiting for the scramble to start on who should get it first, elderly or key workers???
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I don't expect to actually have the vaccine myself for months, but can't help but think that as they start to protect the vulnerable plus health workers then it is more likely that things (including holidays) will open up. Also improved testing in the community after the current lockdown (I told you I was an optimist) plus testing certificates for those of us lucky enough to have a holiday.
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Telegraph reporting - that leading ski operators have cancelled all december ski holidays
Sorry cant put a link up
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@Tiddles, Seems perfectly understandable.
Unless i'm missing something I don't see yesterday's news as being much of a game changer for the upcoming ski season. Most people who go skiing/ boarding are generally of good health and on that basis unlikely to get access to vaccine until well into 2021, by which time the season will be done. Clearly there will be some NHS/ health workers and older folks who can get access earlier but the vast majority of people will be well down the list regards access to vaccine surely?
I'm looking forward to 21/22, and if possible a sneaky week towards end of season 20/21 which would be a bonus.
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| Jonny996 wrote: |
The news yesterday really cheered me up & whilst I'll accept my NY & 2 jan trips being cancelled I'd really hope for half term & then a couple of March ones.
Only down side is I heard its 2 jabs 3 weeks apart & not affective for another 2 weeks, so 5 weeks in total before your good to go. Add that to the news that they are targeting the elderly first & you come to the scenario that the season is over before your good to go.
I'm just waiting for the scramble to start on who should get it first, elderly or key workers??? |
Thought it's already laid out -oldest, most vulnerable first and their carers sliding down to over 50s last. Under 50s without any sort of other circumsatnce don't seem to really be in the plan so one wonders what decisions have are being made re "release from restrictions" v the most active spreaders being unvaccinated.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@Dave of the Marmottes, yup, I think the prioritisation is already very clear. I doubt that they will even get through the care homes and staff (#1 priority) before Feb half term given the complexity of the vaccination process.
This isn't like a 'flu vaccination, and even 'flu vaccination this year was a much more onerous process than usual.
Cold chain, very short shelf life, full PPE, 2 shots, patient observation post vaccination etc.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| garfmiller wrote: |
Vaccine is fantastic news IMHO. Just hoping they can get enough out in time and clear all approvals etc.
Chance of a near "normal" ski holiday for a family who cannot quarantine on either end, full operations on lifts but perhaps slightly curtailed après:
December = 10%
January = 33%
February = 66+%
March = 95+%
fingers crossed.... |
based on what?
unless your over 75 with health issues
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| Markymark29 wrote: |
@Tiddles, Seems perfectly understandable.
Unless i'm missing something I don't see yesterday's news as being much of a game changer for the upcoming ski season. Most people who go skiing/ boarding are generally of good health and on that basis unlikely to get access to vaccine until well into 2021, by which time the season will be done. Clearly there will be some NHS/ health workers and older folks who can get access earlier but the vast majority of people will be well down the list regards access to vaccine surely?
I'm looking forward to 21/22, and if possible a sneaky week towards end of season 20/21 which would be a bonus. |
I agree that the under 50's will be last on the list for the vaccine, probably not till Q3 2021. However, it may be a combination of factors that open up the chances for those hoping to go skiing:
- the most vulnerable get the vaccine from now into Q1 next year
- better and quicker testing in place for those wanting to travel
- wider general immunity from those that had it during wave 1 and 2.
All this hopefully will mean that any further lockdowns and restrictions might be looser than before (although restrictions will still be in place), which will allow people to travel (and ski!)
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You know it makes sense.
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Looks like the ski slopes might be full of us old wrinklies then.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| Mr.Egg wrote: |
| garfmiller wrote: |
Vaccine is fantastic news IMHO. Just hoping they can get enough out in time and clear all approvals etc.
Chance of a near "normal" ski holiday for a family who cannot quarantine on either end, full operations on lifts but perhaps slightly curtailed après:
December = 10%
January = 33%
February = 66+%
March = 95+%
fingers crossed.... |
based on what?
unless your over 75 with health issues |
Hopefully govts will allow those who are not yet eligible to be vaccinated to make personal decisions knowing they are are lower risk, plus those who are higher risk have more likely been vaccinated. Add in a touch of optimism on my part and you arrive at those very scientifically calculated percentages.
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Poster: A snowHead
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I'm guessing young people should be able to go skiing too if the vulnerable are getting vaccination. After all, the only reason the majority of under 30s need to obey these restrictions is to protect the old, vulnerable and minimise strain on the NHS. If the vaccinated are allowed full freedom then I guess the young deserve it too.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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I suppose the question regarding getting to go away is - will part vaccinations be good enough to justify opening the slopes? I would think the resorts, and travel industries, will be pushing hard for everything to start opening up once the December lockdowns are over
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@grumpygargoyle The problem is twofold. First, we don't know if the vaccine (and others) are preventive or palliative, or both. A preventive vaccine stops you from contracting the disease, a palliative vaccine doesn't, it just moderates the effects when you do contract it. So if it's 'only' palliative (and 'only' is still a very good result) then it's not helping contain the spread. And not every one will respond equally, so getting the virus may still be bad, albeit perhaps not fatal.
Second, in an ideal world, you'd actually vaccinate everyone equally, at the same time, quickly hitting the magic % where you have 'herd immunity' - where outbreaks in the unvaccinated population are contained and don't spread further. But since we likely won't have enough doses to do this, then you have to prioritise. And prioritisation depends on a lot of factors (including the preventive/pallative above) and could look counter-intuitive. For example, it may be that the over-80s actually don't benefit a lot from it, and if it's preventive, then it would be much better for their carers to get it first. Or that you'd get to herd immunity quicker giving it to younger people first, so they can get back to work safely, and so on (just examples, not saying this will be the case).
The big thing that worries me is if it starts getting deployed and then we see the media highlighting the statistically inevitable coincidences: there are be bound to be people who get vaccinated then have a heart attack a week later; people whose pre-existing condition suddenly worsens; someone who contracts cancer just after an inoculation; and so on. We need a public health education initiative starting now to lay the groundwork for what a vaccination programme means and educate people on what to expect, and not to expect. The Russian Govt vaccine is genuine but has some pretty nasty side-effects apparently, so people need to understand how nothing is risk-free. And anti-vaxxers do have some legitimate concerns based on actual cases (like the polio vaccine scandal in the USA where in similar circumstances of public pressure, an untested vaccine was released with devastating effect). And older people here will recall seeing doctors in the pay of Big Tobacco repeatedly saying smoking was actually good for you. I don't subscribe to the anti-vaccination cause, but I do understand why people might be suspicious. And go on any popular Forum and you'll find people who believe the whole vaccination thing is a conspiracy by Big Pharma and their Government stooges. I understand the PM's exasperation, but saying "anti-vaxxers are nuts" probably doesn't help much.
[Caveat: I'm not an immunologist, just a retired scientist with the time to read around the subject. So obviously I'm happy to be corrected on any of this.]
Last edited by Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see? on Tue 10-11-20 15:15; edited 5 times in total
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@LaForet, thanks for the smart answer to my slightly flippant post. Let's keep our fingers we all get some time on the mountain (and don't get ill, obviously)
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@LaForet, thanks for those thoughts.
and thirdly, the vaccine everyone is talking about as if it is the answer needs to be stored at MINUS 80 DEGREES. I'm not sure if it matters if that's C or F quite frankly because few places will have the facility let alone the capacity. The distribution task is bigger than a frozen mammoth to the power of 100.
And now that it has been announced, just watch everyone start moaning because they can't have it NOW.
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@Pruman, -80C is dry ice which is pretty easy to manage, at least in developed locations. It's well above liquid nitrogen which is widely used in clinical and lab settings.
For developed countries, the cold chain is logistically complex, but nowhere near insurmountable.
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| LaForet wrote: |
@grumpygargoyle The problem is twofold. First, we don't know if the vaccine (and others) are preventive or palliative, or both. A preventive vaccine stops you from contracting the disease, a palliative vaccine doesn't, it just moderates the effects when you do contract it. So if it's 'only' palliative (and 'only' is still a very good result) then it's not helping contain the spread. And not every one will respond equally, so getting the virus may still be bad, albeit perhaps not fatal.
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I'm not sure the distinction is so black and white.
"Contracting the disease" is not a clearly defined state. When a load of virus enters your body, it multiplies, and got killed by the body, at the same time. It's that balance between the two process that determines whether you get severely sick or not. Even without vaccine, most people eventually produce enough antibody to kill off the virus. It just takes time and the person is infectious during that time.
A vaccine is suppose to make the "killing" process a whole lot faster and stronger by "training" the body in that killing (of that specific virus) process. I would think it's quite likely a spectrum. It could very well be preventive for some and palliative in others.
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@LaForet,
I think vaccine should start with 45-67 age group & get the economy going again.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Pruman wrote: |
@LaForet, thanks for those thoughts.
and thirdly, the vaccine everyone is talking about as if it is the answer needs to be stored at MINUS 80 DEGREES. I'm not sure if it matters if that's C or F quite frankly because few places will have the facility let alone the capacity. The distribution task is bigger than a frozen mammoth to the power of 100.
And now that it has been announced, just watch everyone start moaning because they can't have it NOW. |
if you can't take the vaccine to the people, you take the people to vaccine. Its just a hurdle to get over.
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| snowdave wrote: |
@Pruman, -80C is dry ice which is pretty easy to manage, at least in developed locations. It's well above liquid nitrogen which is widely used in clinical and lab settings.
For developed countries, the cold chain is logistically complex, but nowhere near insurmountable. |
And entirely possible to do with 'dry', e.g. no CO2/N2 cryogenic systems. Only electricity required!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Surely boarders first, then skiers, then the rest of them?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| Dave of the Marmottes wrote: |
| Jonny996 wrote: |
The news yesterday really cheered me up & whilst I'll accept my NY & 2 jan trips being cancelled I'd really hope for half term & then a couple of March ones.
Only down side is I heard its 2 jabs 3 weeks apart & not affective for another 2 weeks, so 5 weeks in total before your good to go. Add that to the news that they are targeting the elderly first & you come to the scenario that the season is over before your good to go.
I'm just waiting for the scramble to start on who should get it first, elderly or key workers??? |
Thought it's already laid out -oldest, most vulnerable first and their carers sliding down to over 50s last. Under 50s without any sort of other circumstance don't seem to really be in the plan so one wonders what decisions have are being made re "release from restrictions" v the most active spreaders being unvaccinated. |
Have been told by someone involved with one of the vaccine programs that in the UK front line workers will be prioritised ie before those on the above list. One study found that ca 10% of infections in wave 1 were contracted in hospitals, so get the NHS covered and it should hopefully reduce this. It also reduces the issue were any NHS worker with a cough wasn't allowed to go to work resulting in staff shortages.
Whatever the order it's highly unlikely any healthy person who is not a carer or front line worker will receive a vaccine this winter.
re skiing, well some resorts are already open so there will definitely be skiing  Will the vaccine program have a significant impact on this season ? it seems unlikely to me (see the post by @LaForet it will take months to determine to what extent vaccinated people can spread the virus). It seems more likely that every closed ski resort is looking at the open resorts to see how successful they are, if they have outbreaks etc if Swiss resorts can make money without causing a spread of the virus then some others may follow.
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@richb67, the _provisional_ official ranking is, in order:
older adults’ resident in a care home and care home workers
all those 80 years of age and over and health and social care workers
all those 75 years of age and over
all those 70 years of age and over
all those 65 years of age and over
high-risk adults under 65 years of age
moderate-risk adults under 65 years of age
all those 60 years of age and over
all those 55 years of age and over
all those 50 years of age and over
rest of the population (priority to be determined)
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You know it makes sense.
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I'm not due on the slopes until early march and I'm still of the mind set it won't happen. I am a lot positive about rural France holiday on the summer. If we can get abroad then the pound edging up is a bonus 
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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The buzz around the vaccine is interesting: will this be the new passport? I remember when the Left and the alphabet/rainbow flag brigade all threw their toys out of the pram when HIV +ve migrants were banned from coming to the UK. Will we do the same for those without a C19 vaccine? Hmmm...
I don't think many of you are going to enjoy the new authoritarianism that's coming, even those who went down the "you're all selfish, wear a mask etc etc" route early on and persist in doing so. Remember, it's wonderful when your lot are in charge but what do you think will happen when Johnson turns his sights on the environment and other aspects of the nation's health such as diet? How would you like the price of fuel to be deliberately increased to dissuade people, as with alcohol, sugar and tobacco? Do you honestly think they will ever stop?
Our political establishment have now realised that they can bypass Parliament. They can grab the power to spend our future prosperity without our approval in any way. We're going to breathe a sigh of relief from C19 before the next wave hits us. Just remember that if you rang the Police to report your neighbours having a BBQ or children playing outdoors then you did this. Then again, you'll probably like it.
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Poster: A snowHead
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| snowdave wrote: |
@richb67, the _provisional_ official ranking is, in order:
older adults’ resident in a care home and care home workers
all those 80 years of age and over and health and social care workers
all those 75 years of age and over
all those 70 years of age and over
all those 65 years of age and over
high-risk adults under 65 years of age
moderate-risk adults under 65 years of age
all those 60 years of age and over
all those 55 years of age and over
all those 50 years of age and over
rest of the population (priority to be determined) |
thanks, that would make sense as a desired order. I'm a little be sceptical of the actual order purely because the high risk groups are almost by definition those most susceptible to side effects and the number of those people involved in the trial will be very low so there will be reluctance to start on those. However let's see if the safety profile is good, if they have seen little or no correlation of side affects with increased age (or health issues) then the order above may be finalised.
Vaccinating a million healthy NHS and care workers would produce a lot more safety data...
FYI for anyone whose interested. It is traditionally more difficult to get approval for a pharma product for older folks as - their immune system isn't as good, their kidneys aren't as good at metabolising, they are often on multiple medications, they often have multiple pre-existing health conditions. So how do you make sure if it's safe for an 85 year old with diabetes and asthma who is taking drugs X, Y and Z ? To be confident you need much more data than for a healthy 25 yr old.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@boobleblooble, I don't use much fuel so it doesn't worry me. Fewer cars on the road (unlikely!) would be great 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@richb67, Interesting - would a vaccine be affected by/affect other 'chemical' drugs though?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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I honestly think that 20/21 ski season will largely not happen. Vaccines may enable a summer 21 holiday season, still with restrictions, but the 21/22 ski season may be reasonably normal, if there are the providers left to supply it.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| RobinS wrote: |
| I honestly think that 20/21 ski season will largely not happen. Vaccines may enable a summer 21 holiday season, still with restrictions, but the 21/22 ski season may be reasonably normal, if there are the providers left to supply it. |
me too, exactly this. have flights booked to Sicily in June but nothing before that.
Hopefully we're being overly pessimistic !
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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| MorningGory wrote: |
| @richb67, Interesting - would a vaccine be affected by/affect other 'chemical' drugs though? |
so, work in pharma but not vaccines, big caveat.
I don't think they will expect drug / vaccine interaction. But e.g. there are drugs that impact your immune system and a minor side effect in a young healthy person could be much more severe in an older unhealthy person.
re care homes, if a vaccine is shown to stop the spread of the disease then getting every care worker vaccinated would have a massive impact and could be a quickish win. You're putting a ring around the most vulnerable.
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| richb67 wrote: |
| ... So how do you make sure if it's safe for an 85 year old with diabetes and asthma who is taking drugs X, Y and Z ? To be confident you need much more data than for a healthy 25 yr old. |
Not my particular area of expertise, but perhaps one ought to me more concerned with the balance of risk between doing nothing and doing this.
A healthy 25 year old can make their own antibodies and doesn't much mind of they pick the thing up along with whatever else is going around down the 'Spoons.
For the 85 year old, obviously immunising their carers would be a good and simple start.
Presumably the people who want to see them would also need to be protected.
Depending on exactly how the protection works you've at least significantly cut their risk without even going near them.
I don't know that many 85 year old skiers, mind. And perhaps we can crank up what's left of the economy without
getting those guys out of bed to assist.
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| richb67 wrote: |
so, work in pharma but not vaccines, big caveat.
I don't think they will expect drug / vaccine interaction. But e.g. there are drugs that impact your immune system and a minor side effect in a young healthy person could be much more severe in an older unhealthy person.
re care homes, if a vaccine is shown to stop the spread of the disease then getting every care worker vaccinated would have a massive impact and could be a quickish win. You're putting a ring around the most vulnerable. |
Very reasonable points. One thing which I've never been able to get my head around, is how do you assess the risk of not having a vaccine which is deemed suitable for you, compared to deciding not to have the vaccine because of the possible associated risks?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| boobleblooble wrote: |
The buzz around the vaccine is interesting: will this be the new passport? I remember when the Left and the alphabet/rainbow flag brigade all threw their toys out of the pram when HIV +ve migrants were banned from coming to the UK. Will we do the same for those without a C19 vaccine? Hmmm...
I don't think many of you are going to enjoy the new authoritarianism that's coming, even those who went down the "you're all selfish, wear a mask etc etc" route early on and persist in doing so. Remember, it's wonderful when your lot are in charge but what do you think will happen when Johnson turns his sights on the environment and other aspects of the nation's health such as diet? How would you like the price of fuel to be deliberately increased to dissuade people, as with alcohol, sugar and tobacco? Do you honestly think they will ever stop?
Our political establishment have now realised that they can bypass Parliament. They can grab the power to spend our future prosperity without our approval in any way. We're going to breathe a sigh of relief from C19 before the next wave hits us. Just remember that if you rang the Police to report your neighbours having a BBQ or children playing outdoors then you did this. Then again, you'll probably like it. |
You write like your user name...
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@rob@rar, relevant point, I hope regulators aren't bounced into too fast a decision to properly consider that balance of risks.
My feeling is that the main worry of the Pfizer vaccine is the novelty of the RNA agent, but that concern is more for long term side effects than immediate. That makes the risk balance in over-85s somewhat easier. And any short term side effects are most likely similar to other vaccines so there is experience to draw on of the impact of other health conditions or use of pharmaceuticals.
Since you are here, you may be able to help with @LaForet's question. Obviously the Pfizer trial might be different from the AstraZeneca one you know about, but do you think they will have identified cases by symptoms or swab tests? If the latter there won't be the asymptomatic but infectious individuals @LaForet worries about.
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FAQ
