Lies.......!!! Dam Lies ..................!!!! and Statistics................!!!!
Not withstanding .............. Bullshot Baffles Brains!
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
ropetow wrote:
The smarter approach IMHO is to go with half first doses of the AstraZenica which increases supply by 50% and is likely to increase protection into the 90+% level. Sure there is not great evidence for that approach,
As soon as we stop following the science and start making guesses then it just becomes the wild west out there. There's been no trials done on the basis you suggest - merely limited evidence from a faulty first trial of the Astra Zenica vaccine. As to not giving a second doze of the Pfizer - or delaying the second dose outwith the recommended interval - who knows what that will do. We are now taking a 'punt' on the outcome of that one and hoping that giving the second dose to someone else reduces overall mortality - and not that 30 out 100 folks administering the vaccine may contract covid and then spread it to folks getting the vaccine.
Like I said there is "some" evidence that if you make the first dose of the AstraZenica vaccine a half dose it increases protection from 60% to 92%. Not great, there where only 1500 people accidentally given the wrong dose. However that is very distinctly not zero evidence. It is also astronomically unlikely that a half dose is dangerous. Finally if uptake is low then the greater protection offered by going from 60% to 92% will be exceedingly important to getting out of the mess. Personally I am not enamoured of getting a vaccine that is only 60% effective, and would rather take the gamble on a half plus a full dose or wait and get the Pzier vaccine frankly.
On the other hand there is absolutely no evidence whatsoever for a 12 week gap of either vaccine which is what the government is proposing.
What I am saying is if you want to take a gamble on maximising the number of people you can do with a limited supply of the vaccine then a half dose of the AstraZenica vaccine is a far more sensible play than increase the time between doses.
Yes my maths was faulty if you have one million doses you can give 500,000 people two full doses, or 666,666 people a half does plus a full dose, a 33% increase. A brain fart on my behalf, don't know what I was thinking when I typed that.
My personal view is unless you have a genuine medical reason for not taking a vaccine when offered, then you should get to pay for your own NHS treatment should you then fall ill. I object to paying for medical care for followers of quack science.
Frankly it should apply to all vaccine preventable diseases.
Is President Macron making a statement tomorrow (Thursday) that may cover the 2020/21 winter season? I'm sure I heard/saw it on France 24, or similar.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
jabuzzard wrote:
On the other hand there is absolutely no evidence whatsoever for a 12 week gap of either vaccine which is what the government is proposing.
That's not true in respect of the Oxford vaccine. The full/full = 62% and half/full = 90% was based on the interim release from the Phase 3 trial (with data closed off on 4 November). A fuller data set (up to 21 December, so likely to include more infections in the Phase 3 trial participants) is what led the MHRA and JCVI to conclude that increasing the gap between two full doses to up to 12 weeks led to the highest efficacy rate for the Oxford vaccine.
After all it is free
After all it is free
red 27 wrote:
jabuzzard
Quote:
The smarter approach IMHO is to go with half first doses of the AstraZenica which increases supply by 50%
NickYoung
Quote:
?
If you have doses for 1m people, but half that dose, you have enough doses for 2m people = a 100% increase.
Poor Carol Vorderman must be choking on her coffee reading this but let me have a go at explaining...
Imagine you've got two doses. One you cut in half, one you don't. You now have 3 doses. Remember it's only the first dose that's halved
You had 2.... now you have 3. 3 is 150% of 2 and so the increase is 50%
I see how you are trying to treat the numbers, but you've made incorrect assumptions.
No-one is suggesting that the 2nd dose is halved - to all intents and purposes, they do not exist yet.
The question is "how many people can be jabbed with the first dose?" The amount of vaccine supplied e.g. liquid volume, is not changing; it's how many people you can treat.
If you have enough doses to treat 10 people in the shortest possible timeframe, but you half the measure, you can therefore treat 20 people, and you have increased the doses available by 100%.
That was the point in question and that's the maths of it.
If you change the focus of the question in the way you are doing, the maths will change. Later on, those people will indeed need a full second jab.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
esaw1 wrote:
@thefatcontroller, Just a pity they can't beat their chests somewhere else and let us mere mortals carry on the chat at a level we can understand.
Beating chests????!!
Pretty sure none of are doing that.
I'm sorry that our discussion, for that's all it is, is confounding and upsetting you so much.
Blimey.
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
NickYoung wrote:
esaw1 wrote:
@thefatcontroller, Just a pity they can't beat their chests somewhere else and let us mere mortals carry on the chat at a level we can understand.
Beating chests????!!
Pretty sure none of are doing that.
I'm sorry that our discussion, for that's all it is, is confounding and upsetting you so much.
Blimey.
My wife is a nurse and working on the vaccine roll out program, she is delighted that you think her and her colleagues are poo-poo at what they do and that they haven't a clue how to mange the hysteria created by idiots like you 2nd guessing all their work but they accept you are a world expert.
She got vaccinated yesterday, Pfizer, and wont' get the 2nd dose for 12 weeks now, She is 100% happy with that strategy but she will make sure to take your calculations into work tomorrow so her colleagues can discuss them in their 30 minute lunch break, dressed in PPE as they are surrounded by people with COVID in the area she is working.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
@thefatcontroller, A huge thank you to your wife and all those who are risking so much to help us.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
thefatcontroller wrote:
NickYoung wrote:
esaw1 wrote:
@thefatcontroller, Just a pity they can't beat their chests somewhere else and let us mere mortals carry on the chat at a level we can understand.
Beating chests????!!
Pretty sure none of are doing that.
I'm sorry that our discussion, for that's all it is, is confounding and upsetting you so much.
Blimey.
My wife is a nurse and working on the vaccine roll out program, she is delighted that you think her and her colleagues are poo-poo at what they do and that they haven't a clue how to mange the hysteria created by idiots like you 2nd guessing all their work but they accept you are a world expert.
She got vaccinated yesterday, Pfizer, and wont' get the 2nd dose for 12 weeks now, She is 100% happy with that strategy but she will make sure to take your calculations into work tomorrow so her colleagues can discuss them in their 30 minute lunch break, dressed in PPE as they are surrounded by people with COVID in the area she is working.
What on Earth are you on about???
Who has said nurses are poo? Who has said they don't know what they are doing? Who is being hysterical?
No-one here is claiming to be an expert - those involved in this bit of the discussion are simply discussion our interpretations of the possible scenarios. I'm sure we all understand that it's all ifs, buts and maybe's.
Also, this is a forum - you know, for discussion of often opposing or conflicting POV. The discussion on vaccine roll-out is entirely relevant to this thread topic = it's success undoubtedly will affect whether or not Brits ski this year.
And having said that - all I have discussed is the mathematical treatment of the hypothetical numbers used for the basis of the discussion.
If you think someone has disrespected the NHS/nurses - quote them, not me!
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
NickYoung wrote:
thefatcontroller wrote:
NickYoung wrote:
esaw1 wrote:
@thefatcontroller, Just a pity they can't beat their chests somewhere else and let us mere mortals carry on the chat at a level we can understand.
Beating chests????!!
Pretty sure none of are doing that.
I'm sorry that our discussion, for that's all it is, is confounding and upsetting you so much.
Blimey.
My wife is a nurse and working on the vaccine roll out program, she is delighted that you think her and her colleagues are poo-poo at what they do and that they haven't a clue how to mange the hysteria created by idiots like you 2nd guessing all their work but they accept you are a world expert.
She got vaccinated yesterday, Pfizer, and wont' get the 2nd dose for 12 weeks now, She is 100% happy with that strategy but she will make sure to take your calculations into work tomorrow so her colleagues can discuss them in their 30 minute lunch break, dressed in PPE as they are surrounded by people with COVID in the area she is working.
What on Earth are you on about???
Who has said nurses are poo? Who has said they don't know what they are doing? Who is being hysterical?
No-one here is claiming to be an expert - those involved in this bit of the discussion are simply discussion our interpretations of the possible scenarios. I'm sure we all understand that it's all ifs, buts and maybe's.
Also, this is a forum - you know, for discussion of often opposing or conflicting POV. The discussion on vaccine roll-out is entirely relevant to this thread topic = it's success undoubtedly will affect whether or not Brits ski this year.
And having said that - all I have discussed is the mathematical treatment of the hypothetical numbers used for the basis of the discussion.
If you think someone has disrespected the NHS/nurses - quote them, not me!
I’m sure you love it in your job when unqualified people rock up and tell you they know better. Surmise all you want but unless you are a world vaccine expert shut up and don’t forget when you get your vaccine appointment letter to reject it as you don’t like the strategy. Simple.
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
thefatcontroller wrote:
NickYoung wrote:
thefatcontroller wrote:
NickYoung wrote:
esaw1 wrote:
@thefatcontroller, Just a pity they can't beat their chests somewhere else and let us mere mortals carry on the chat at a level we can understand.
Beating chests????!!
Pretty sure none of are doing that.
I'm sorry that our discussion, for that's all it is, is confounding and upsetting you so much.
Blimey.
My wife is a nurse and working on the vaccine roll out program, she is delighted that you think her and her colleagues are poo-poo at what they do and that they haven't a clue how to mange the hysteria created by idiots like you 2nd guessing all their work but they accept you are a world expert.
She got vaccinated yesterday, Pfizer, and wont' get the 2nd dose for 12 weeks now, She is 100% happy with that strategy but she will make sure to take your calculations into work tomorrow so her colleagues can discuss them in their 30 minute lunch break, dressed in PPE as they are surrounded by people with COVID in the area she is working.
What on Earth are you on about???
Who has said nurses are poo? Who has said they don't know what they are doing? Who is being hysterical?
No-one here is claiming to be an expert - those involved in this bit of the discussion are simply discussion our interpretations of the possible scenarios. I'm sure we all understand that it's all ifs, buts and maybe's.
Also, this is a forum - you know, for discussion of often opposing or conflicting POV. The discussion on vaccine roll-out is entirely relevant to this thread topic = it's success undoubtedly will affect whether or not Brits ski this year.
And having said that - all I have discussed is the mathematical treatment of the hypothetical numbers used for the basis of the discussion.
If you think someone has disrespected the NHS/nurses - quote them, not me!
I’m sure you love it in your job when unqualified people rock up and tell you they know better. Surmise all you want but unless you are a world vaccine expert shut up and don’t forget when you get your vaccine appointment letter to reject it as you don’t like the strategy. Simple.
Feel free to quote me wherever I have said I know better than those involved in the vaccination programme, or where I have criticised the strategy.
And if you don't want to read opinions that don't match yours (you don't know what my opinions are on this matter, because I haven't shared them at any point), then stay off internet FORUMS.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@thefatcontroller, you must have had a really bad day to get so uppity about some folk talking about percentages.
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
dode wrote:
@thefatcontroller, you must have had a really bad day to get so uppity about some folk talking about percentages.
And it was only about 4 of us doing it.
So about 20% of the people active on this thread...or 1/5th, as I like to call them...
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@NickYoung, but you have to cut the first one in half remember
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Enough already.
Just remember that 35% of all statistics are made up, including this one.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
So the new requirement announced to have a PCR test within 72 before getting on a flight, boat, coach, train to return to the UK is adding another logistical leg to an already complex logistical exercise. I think that this will probably kill the 2020-21 ski season for most people. I wouldn't even know where to begin getting a test in mainland Europe!
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
@FrediKanoute, Val d’Isere for example has 2 testing centres.
One is run by the medical centre for people with symptoms the other is run by the pharmacy for private tests.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Google might help
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
muppet wrote:
@FrediKanoute, Val d’Isere for example has 2 testing centres.
One is run by the medical centre for people with symptoms the other is run by the pharmacy for private tests.
Thanks for the info, figure it is going to be busy on a Weds/Thurs if the season opens up........and the French allow Brits back in!
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
I’ve just about got myself mentally sorted to lose two trips again.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
I think that for British residents, the season is lost. It's January and GB residents can't travel to France or Switzerland at all. The UK has imposed a mandatory test certificate for anyone entering the country, then 14 days quarantine. No one over 65 can get travel insurance cover to the Alpine countries given the Foreign Office blacklist and younger over-65s aren't going to get the two inoculations plus activation time done 'till June/July or even August. A family going over legally to any newly-opened-up destination will probably need to write off a days skiing to be tested and are assuming there will be no further cycles of closures and disruptions. Yes, I can see younger skiers might make it, as they'll be able to get travel insurance, with cover even if they go Against FO Advice. But I imagine that many will be put off by the test requirement and can't readily take 2 weeks off, or risk being stranded abroad if flights et. are disrupted or they are forced to quarantine at their destination.
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Quote:
I think that for British residents, the season is lost
@LaForet, It was always that way, anyone who thought otherwise was/ is being woefully optimistic imv.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Markymark29 wrote:
Quote:
I think that for British residents, the season is lost
@LaForet, It was always that way, anyone who thought otherwise was/ is being woefully optimistic imv.
True, but this latest announcement will put a final nail in any level of hope or optimism!
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
i disagree, still think a very late season end of April trip to Val thorens might be possible.
I think that for British residents, the season is lost
@LaForet, It was always that way, anyone who thought otherwise was/ is being woefully optimistic imv.
That's me!!
Odds are stacking up against, but while ever it's a possibility, I'll keep hoping...
(Booked for first week of April).
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
If you've got crossings booked that you're moving forwards, then perhaps it might be worth considering a summer trip to the Alps as a compensation, if things open up by then. If you've never visited the mountains in summer then I think it's worth the trip. We went out in August and had a great time based in our ALpine apartment, self-catering, and just going for walks. We did a couple of day excursions in the car as well, one to Arolla on the Italian border:
You should be able to easily pick up an apartment at short notice. All going to be subject to the uncertainties of the pandemic, of course.
If you've got crossings booked that you're moving forwards, then perhaps it might be worth considering a summer trip to the Alps as a compensation, if things open up by then.
Thats a great idea. I'm sure it would be more than a pleasant surprise for summer debutants.
But isn't it moving a booking backwards?
Last edited by You'll need to Register first of course. on Fri 8-01-21 13:38; edited 1 time in total
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Bergmeister wrote:
LaForet wrote:
If you've got crossings booked that you're moving forwards, then perhaps it might be worth considering a summer trip to the Alps as a compensation, if things open up by then.
Moving backwards, surely?
Then, let's look at +1 TV channels
After all it is free
After all it is free
Hey Folks.. You seem to be a bit slow here in keeping up with relality and what is happening .....
In case you missed my Post in Arlberg.Topic..below is from the Chief of The Chamber of Commerce, Tirol, Austria.
""Winter Season still Miles away from Opening""
WK-President: Winter season "unrealistic" this year
This season looks bleak for winter tourism, says Tyrol's WK President Christoph Walser (ÖVP). One is "still miles away" from an opening. In addition, the expected end of the lockdown is "constantly shifting backwards".
In the worst case, an opening is not expected until Easter.
This would represent a 90 percent drop in overnight stays and a loss of value added of 5.2 billion euros, as well as the loss of 48,000 jobs.
"We still have February and March to save the winter season," Walser warned. Given the current situation, it is "unrealistic that we will even bring a winter season this year".
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
NickYoung wrote:
Bergmeister wrote:
LaForet wrote:
If you've got crossings booked that you're moving forwards, then perhaps it might be worth considering a summer trip to the Alps as a compensation, if things open up by then.
Moving backwards, surely?
Then, let's look at +1 TV channels
Good point!
But what happens if a couple say they are pushing a wedding date back? Would the new date be before or after the original date?
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
stanton wrote:
Hey Folks.. You seem to be a bit slow here in keeping up with relality and what is happening .....
In case you missed my Post in Arlberg.Topic..below is from the Chief of The Chamber of Commerce, Tirol, Austria.
""Winter Season still Miles away from Opening""
WK-President: Winter season "unrealistic" this year
This season looks bleak for winter tourism, says Tyrol's WK President Christoph Walser (ÖVP). One is "still miles away" from an opening. In addition, the expected end of the lockdown is "constantly shifting backwards".
In the worst case, an opening is not expected until Easter.
This would represent a 90 percent drop in overnight stays and a loss of value added of 5.2 billion euros, as well as the loss of 48,000 jobs.
"We still have February and March to save the winter season," Walser warned. Given the current situation, it is "unrealistic that we will even bring a winter season this year".
FAQ
Poster: A snowHead
clue how to mange the hysteria created by idiots like you 2nd guessing all their work but they accept you are a world expert.
