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The All New 20/21 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Feels like this still holds true, so I’m going to stick with it.

“Forecasting is hard, but hope is free” (@twoodwar, 18/02/2020)


http://youtube.com/v/wEBlaMOmKV4

Summer still to click into gear yet, though rumours of Spanish plumes heading for the UK and some pretty hot temperatures later this week.

Here incidentally is not the place to discuss the virus. Wrong thread. Plenty of others for that.

Also don’t be an a@se. You know who I’m referring to.

But first...

I wouldn't take a forecast beyond 7 days that seriously.

Computer models are good at giving you an idea of what the forecast is likely to be three to five days out (which is actually pretty amazing given the chaotic nature of weather). That said they can still be caught by surprise and accurately predicting precipitation in particular is very difficult. Although sometimes people ask what "locals" think the weather will be like, most (farmers, police, guides) will use the same sort of forecasting tools every else does. Locals don't have a sixth sense that can allow them to know what the weather will be like that others don't have. What they do have built on hard experience is a much better feel for how the weather will affect the local area and how that will change the conditions.

Here's something I scribbled down on forecasting at the end of the 2011 season. I think it still makes broad sense now.

nozawaonsen wrote:
"Looking at shorter term models like GFS etc. Beyond seven days any model is very subject to change. I wouldn't take it that seriously. You might get a trend. GFS provides a longer range, public set of ensembles than other models and these are easier to tie to location than others, but the ease of use does not mean GFS is necessarily a better model than others. To have any confidence in that trend you would want to see it picked up run after run and also joined by other models.

- Closer in GFS and other synoptic models start to be less useful in the 2 to 3 day range. Local variation will start to undermine them beyond the general trend.
- Mesoscale models like WRF may be more useful in the 2-3 day range.
- Right close in, on the day or day before for example, if I needed a good forecast I would almost always choose the local avalanche forecast for accuracy.

- Don't take it that seriously."

To which I'd add that beyond seven days you can't really talk about a forecast, what you have is a range of probabilities, as shown by the different coloured ensembles, which is almost always simply too great a spread to really call a forecast. You can't really make sense of these as a single snapshot. So you need to see how they evolve from run to run to give you a sense of whether certain options are looking more or less likely.

And to repeat forecasting accurate precipitation is very difficult (so be wary of any forecast that appears to say you will get 23.5cm of snow next Friday). Measuring how much has fallen afterwards is almost as difficult if not more so (so be wary of any snow report which claims 23.5cm of snow fell last Friday).

And finally for anyone wanting facts about the future. There aren't any there are only forecasts (and sensible ones tend to have caveats). So those guys promising you it’s all so easy? Well. It isn’t. Wasn’t last year, won’t be next year.

Good that hopefully should have cleared things up a bit.

But there’s going to be skiing to ski come autumn and winter and right now that feels like good odds.

As ever some thoughts on ENSO to follow...

Good to see you all again!
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@nozawaonsen, Hope you have a great season when it arrives. Looking forward to your insights.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Make it sticky!
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@Whitegold, I’ll address this directly to you so others can see it too.

For a variety of reasons I’m pretty keen not to have people spoiling this thread.

I don’t really know what motivates you, but could I politely request that we leave discussion of viruses to the multitude of other threads there are on this forum where people want to discuss that? There are plenty for you to do that on. This is not the one. This is for discussion of the weather. The thread title explains that and normally that’s quite a good clue about what the content of the thread is. Not always, but in this case it is. Would that be ok?
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
As a complete amateur would someone humour me please and linked to our 3-5 day comments in the introduction? I often get the impression longer range computer models have a bias towards the status quo. So, in UK in May, there was never a hint of the weather breakdown we have had in June - rather a sort of assumption that what we had was going to continue in the rolling ten to fourteen day forecasts. I understand the complexities nevertheless it is frustrating that organisations even bother to forecast further out in public.
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Not sure who you mean by “organisations” nor which forecasts you are referring to specifically so I’ll take care answering. But beyond 3-5 days uncertainty rapidly starts to increase, although sometimes if you have for example a very settled high pressure system that period of confidence can extend further.

For that reason most serious forecasts are pretty clear about diminishing confidence. You can see this increasing uncertainty pretty clearly if you look at the spread on an ensemble forecast. You do still however often see online forecasts (normally showing little more than an icon) that stretch out to 10-14 days and beyond, normally from commercial outfits trying to make money either charging directly or through advertising.

The apparent certainty in these forecasts (and lack of caveats or comments on probability) can make it appear simpler, but that very simplicity actually makes them inaccurate as forecasts, because it implies something complex is in fact simple. When it’s not. This extends to other areas beyond weather (and that’s without even discussing reversion to the mean).
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Yeeeee, posting into the best thread on the forum!

I wish season 2020/2021 will be super cold, powdery (on nights) and sunny (on day) from November till April.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Whitegold wrote:
Winter is already here for the Southern Hemisphere, and coming for the North.

Be mindful of a 2nd or 3rd future virus wave.


What is the snow like the Southern Hemisphere?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
Phew! I was getting worried when we passed the Solstice and this thread didn't appear. Looking forwards to the usual entertaining mix of wild speculation, well informed insight, and everything in between.

Anyway, I don't know why there's all this interest in 14 day forecasts when metcheck does 180 days!
https://www.metcheck.com/WEATHER/180days.asp?MonthOf=12&zipcode=Chamonix&locationID=67215&lat=45.9&lon=6.9

Just think, in 8 days' time we'll have a forecast for xmas day. snowHead
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Great to see my favourite thread starting. The anticipation roller coaster begins again.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowdave wrote:
Phew! I was getting worried when we passed the Solstice and this thread didn't appear. Looking forwards to the usual entertaining mix of wild speculation, well informed insight, and everything in between.

Anyway, I don't know why there's all this interest in 14 day forecasts when metcheck does 180 days!
https://www.metcheck.com/WEATHER/180days.asp?MonthOf=12&zipcode=Chamonix&locationID=67215&lat=45.9&lon=6.9

Just think, in 8 days' time we'll have a forecast for xmas day. snowHead


Haven't looked at that site for years after it's owners 'difficulties'

Looked at Salzburg for December. Not a flake of snow in sight but never a positive temperature either. Snow cannon paradise. rolling eyes
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@robboj, Thanks, I wasn't aware of the history, but having done a quick search on here to educate myself, I've checked the website and, it was bought out in 2012 and states it is owned by Ben Yeal, so hopefully no ties at all to its former appalling owner.

If I'm wrong and there is still a connection to its history, then let me know and I'll delete any reference to it (or mods are welcome to delete the post).
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
snowdave wrote:
@robboj, Thanks, I wasn't aware of the history, but having done a quick search on here to educate myself, I've checked the website and, it was bought out in 2012 and states it is owned by Ben Yeal, so hopefully no ties at all to its former appalling owner.

If I'm wrong and there is still a connection to its history, then let me know and I'll delete any reference to it (or mods are welcome to delete the post).


Apologies, I had no intention of suggesting you shouldn't be looking at it. I used to have it bookmarked but deliberately unmarked it at the time and literally haven't seen it since then.

If its been bought over then all's good. Well, maybe apart from publishing the likes of a 180 day forecast that some folks may think has any basis in science.

Graphics all seem the same iirc so a strange 'purchase' to make unless he literally got it for a song?

Then again if it forecasts a white xmas should I get my bet on now? Laughing
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Quick look back at recent ENSO conditions.

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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
And a slightly different view.

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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Thank you, @nozawaonsen.
Great to have the new thread up and running - a little light in the dark tunnel

I had to look up ENSO and MEI: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multivariate_ENSO_index.
Now just gotta work out what it all means Puzzled
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@Jonpim, looking at ENSO is just one of the ways you can start to sketch out the very initial outlines for next season‘s climate.

Some indications we might be heading towards La Niña conditions come autumn.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@nozawaonsen, now you are just trying to bamboozle me (and succeeding very well Smile )
What does La Nina mean?

Interesting to find this Telegraph article from December 5th 2011: the day the snow started in La Plagne, and giving us one of the best seasons every.
Hardly "another lower than normal snow season over the Alps". But that's weather forecasting for you Toofy Grin
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BobinCH wrote:
Make it sticky!


Done.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
nozawaonsen wrote:
@Whitegold, I’ll address this directly to you so others can see it too.

For a variety of reasons I’m pretty keen not to have people spoiling this thread.

I don’t really know what motivates you, but could I politely request that we leave discussion of viruses to the multitude of other threads there are on this forum where people want to discuss that? There are plenty for you to do that on. This is not the one. This is for discussion of the weather. The thread title explains that and normally that’s quite a good clue about what the content of the thread is. Not always, but in this case it is. Would that be ok?



You're out of touch, son.

Sounds like controlfreak oppression by self-appointed, self-important forum police wink

The world has changed.

Whether you like it or not, the plague is now as big a risk for snowchasers as avalanches.

Around ~50 people died from avalanches across the European Alps in 2019-20.

Around ~500 people died from the plague across the European Alps in 2019-20.

Plague is in the coaches to resort, the bars where you drink, the cablecars to the snowfall you promote.

You cannot suppress what is now the deadliest threat to skiers in resorts chasing the snowfall.

Deadlier than avalanche.

There is already one quote for avalanche on this page.

And nobody has oppressed the poster and controlfreaked them to put it in the Avalanche thread wink
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Righto.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Quote:

self-appointed, self-important forum police

perfect self-description of Whitetroll Wink

this is the weather thread.... for weather.
please take your plague nonsense to your own flippin' thread.

TYVM.


/rant

back to the weather forecasts... Smile snowHead
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Anyone skiing in europe lately?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
8611 wrote:
Anyone skiing in europe lately?


https://www.facebook.com/118625865957/posts/10157835156860958/?vh=e&d=n
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 Ski the Net with snowHeads
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Wow, snow looks very light too. And the bar is open.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Estofex warning for tomorrow.

“A level 2 was issued across eastern half of Slovakia and southeastern / eastern Poland mainly for damaging wind gusts, excessive rainfall, large hail and tornadoes.

A level 2 was issued across extreme northeastern Italy, southeastern Austria and Slovenia mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts and excessive rainfall.”

http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2020063006_202006282143_2_stormforecast.xml

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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And here’s some of that hail falling.

https://www.facebook.com/565699353523047/posts/3118034604956163/?vh=e&d=n
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@nozawaonsen, wow!
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
More stormy weather for parts of the Alps and Pyrenees.



“A level 1 was issued for parts of Spain and Andorra mainly for severe wind gusts and large hail.

A level 1 was issued for N Italy, S Switzerland and W Austria mainly for large hail and severe convective wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for parts of Romania, Moldova, Ukraine, Belarus and Russia for large hail, severe wind gusts, excessive precipitation and to a lesser extent, tornadoes.”

http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2020063006_202006282143_2_stormforecast.xml
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Heavy hail still rolling round the Alps.

http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2020070206_202006302024_2_stormforecast.xml

“A level 2 was issued across southern France and western Switzerland mainly for large to very large hail, excessive rainfall and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued across Northern Spain mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued acros the Alps and southern Germany mainly for excessive rainfall, large hail and severe wind gusts.“

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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Ahh , you stayed Noza , excellent!
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Ahhh.. my favourite thread is back! I've been off the site for few weeks to avoid all the multiple virus threads going round in circles discussing the same thing over and over and over again NehNeh

Seeing this is back is like a breath of fresh (snowy) air!! Countdown to the new season starts here!
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@Handy Turnip, +lots, on both counts.

Noza, there is without doubt lots of nonsense from some posters on this forum. Despite also working in a field that some of the trolls like to BS on, I do try to ignore it. But you definitely have my sympathies. This thread of yours is great and I’d definitely miss your contribution to it (and the wider forum) if you ambled.
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I can’t wait to post “when’s the new moon ? “ the third week into an anticyclone normally late Autumn early Winter
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Some fresh snowfall this week for New Zealand according to Grasshopper.

https://www.mountainwatch.com/grasshopper/#new-zealand

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FrediKanoute wrote:
Whitegold wrote:
Winter is already here for the Southern Hemisphere, and coming for the North.

Be mindful of a 2nd or 3rd future virus wave.


What is the snow like the Southern Hemisphere?



Where is this original post from Whitegold gone? He hardly deleted it himself, so am I right to presume there are moderators taking out posts that aren't approved of? If so, am curious who gets to decide.....and what are the rules?

Whitegolds post was at least 50% about the weather / snow season.....which is pretty high for this thread. Only a handful of people here actually publish forecasts or discuss the output. The majority of posts on this thread every year have nothing to do with discussing the weather outlook.

So many things I don't understand about this thread....."Those guys promising you it's all so easy?" is back again, so for the second year ...who are you talking about Noz? What time frames? What promises?
But more importantly why do people make so many purposefully ambiguous statements here.....just spit it out, or better still stick to actual weather output discussion.

Here's another recent one from end of last thread
8611 wrote:
A good one to see the back of I think, for a lot of reasons


What reasons? Apart from the season ending early.....if you're going to bother to post something, is it not better to be specific.

Which reminds me of another weird thing about this thread.....hardly anyone challenges any of the posts. Compared to the other 10k threads where every word is jumped on.....here is different.

Won't bother with a weather forecast this time
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
polo wrote:
who are you talking about Noz?


Daily Express annually predicting "severe winter" in august.

Also I don't know why you seek to defend Whitegold - I can understand the line can be thin between trolling and just being negative about global warming. But why deliberately drive the thread off topic? Mods where right to remove the posts, they missed the last one thought.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
I do think that everyone should feel welcome to answer weather questions on this thread, and not just @nozawaonsen. My belief is that this is a general weather outlook topic, but sometimes it reads a little like a personal blog followed by fans. Last season, quite a few people who disagreed with or provided a different forecast to nozawaonsen were subject to unfair criticism.

That's not a reflection of nozawaonsen's posts, which I find very useful, along with those of @polo and several others. Nor is it an endorsement of trolling!
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@denfinella, totally agree with that.....but it's not a big deal as it works for the majority I guess

@Oleski, I don't set out to defend Whitegold....I know he posts ridiculous stuff at times, but he actually makes me laugh out loud probably more than any other poster here. And I'd put him in the top bracket for accurate weather forecasts and some interesting weather posts too. That's all. Probably reflects badly on me, but hey no ones perfect Madeye-Smiley
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polo wrote:
So many things I don't understand about this thread....."Those guys promising you it's all so easy?" is back again, so for the second year ...who are you talking about Noz? What time frames? What promises?


Thought we’d discussed this last season? Happy to put the same reply up I put up then.

nozawaonsen wrote:
polo wrote:
Begs the question why put it on the first post.....


Well if you really want me to expand. It was a general point about forecasting complicated, complex or indeed chaotic situations. Whether politics or weather, forecasting it is never simple.

Those that tend to suggest it is and want forecasts to simply be black and white or indeed state outcomes with greater certainty than they merit, risk misleading people.

Which is why I thought it worth putting it on the first page.

More importantly it looks a bit wet this weekend in Tokyo.


As to your more general point I think there’s a difference between veering cheerfully even chaotically off topic and deliberately and incessantly trolling. And as for discussing the weather outlook go for it. wink
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