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Is the 2020/2021 a non starter?

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
EU tourists will be able to travel to Italy without undergoing 14-day quarantine from June 3 as part of measures to lift the country’s strict coronavirus lockdown, an Italian newspaper has reported.
According to newspaper la Repubblica, those who enter the country from EU states will not be forced to quarantine in isolation for 14 days to prevent the spread of Covid-19.

Lets see how long that lasts.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
I suspect that's a desperate attempt to salvage some of the German tourist trade that parts of Italy are very dependent on. I can't imagine that is likely to pan out. Germany is opening its border with Austria on 15th June, but how many Germans are going to head south when they have the same concerns about travel insurance validity, restricted opening of tourist sites and hospitality, and the like?
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Even if the Italians don't require a 14 day quarantine, you will probably have to (and in my opinion, should for the time being) on return to the UK anyway.

How would you feel if I went to Italy and got infected then passed it on to you on your way to work the following Monday, thus causing you to be ill and miss your own holiday? or even worse, pass it on to your elderly parents?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
robs1 wrote:
LaForet wrote:
'For those not running scared'

No one is 'running scared' - we are just following the advice of our Government and of eminent and experienced medics, based on science and past epidemics. This is a much more subtle situation than a simple choice between 30,000 early elderly deaths vs millions of jobs. Even if you couldn't care less about elderly people dying, it's clear from around the world that there's a huge economic impact to people getting this virus on a large scale, so we don't want that.

Labelling people as cowards isn't helpful.


I didnt label anyone as cowards but if thats the word you want to use then thats fine. The risk of anyone under 60 dying is tiny as long as you arent in the at risk groups, which we now have a good idea of.
Those not in those groups have a duty to get on with life, to get infected so we get to herd immunity quicker so those in the vulnerable groups can come out of isolation with a lower risk. Its funny how people say that this view means I dont care about older folk, that is just not true, those vulnerable can stay isolated if they choose, Im sure those who have terminal illnesses or are in the twilight of life want to live their last few months not hiding in a self imposed prison, if not they can isolate, The advice from the goverment is to go to work but keep your distance, I have worked all the time as have many many people, now the rest need to man up and help the vulnerable

Thank you but no thanks. I’m not a man so need not “man up” to help the vulnerable. rolling eyes

I’m selfish too. I’d rather you and other who’re man enough to do their bits first as guinea pigs to test out treatment protocols and therapeutic drugs that are being developed and tested day and night. So hopefully by the time I “do my part”, my treatment will be well tested and effective.

My aunt survived breast cancer, and kept her breast too. But had she gotten the same cancer a few years prior, there wouldn’t have been the treatment experience then. She would have at least lost her breast, if not her life.

“Flattening the curve” is mostly to spare the hospitals. But it’s also buying time for the health professionals to learn. I’d rather I’d be treated by an experienced MD than by a med school graduate 2 months out of school, which is the state of experience of ALL medical professionals regarding COVID-19
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
@skimastaaah, @PrimroseAndBlue, while those dates are probably countries "flying kites" to indicate readiness to open up and for the reasons you mention are not going to see big changes, they are very encouraging about providing an answer to the question the thread is about.

If countries are prepared for some cautious opening of tourism facilities in June, that may lead to more travel in July and hotels and restaurants functioning with restrictions. I am still hoping there could be the prospect of going on holiday to Europe at some point in August/September (possibly self-catering and using outdoor cafes) and some sort of ski season come the winter.

But from where we are now that is all a hope not a prediction.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
@j b, Totally agree, this is soundbite-politics!
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@NickYoung, those countries are even worse. If a burglar tells me that I should be grateful he robbed £5,000 from me whereas the other local burglars would've taken £10,000 I don't accept it as I've still been robbed!

You have no such right: if you are afraid of the risks of going outside then you can stay indoors for the rest of your life. No furlough for me in my NHS job: just unemployment or take the risk. I took the risk and have been doing 180-185 hours per month.

Sunak should've chopped the furlough scheme earlier so that the simple choice is the same as every day: work or voluntarily impoverish yourself. You are free to be poor, you are not forced to work.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Get ready for the 2nd EU wave.
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 You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
Whitegold wrote:
Get ready for the 2nd EU wave.

And the 2nd US wave.
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 Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
The Yanks are still not mid way through their first wave, let alone looking at a 2nd. It looks like being a very long one if that Idiot gets his way.

I can see the EU keeping travel restrictions on the US for a long time yet.
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 snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
abc wrote:
Whitegold wrote:
Get ready for the 2nd EU wave.

And the 2nd US wave.


US is still on its first wave, don't kick a dood when he is down Very Happy
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Quote:

Herd immunity is really a term more used for immunisation regimes (i.e. what's the minimum %immunisation level at which you can tolerate people being unvaccinated). Whereas 'natural' herd immunity can take years/decades to achieve (and involve repeated cycles of severe infection fallout).

This large pool of uninfected means that we could go through many cycles of lockdown/death spikes/death reduction/unlocking/epidemic if we're over-eager with unlocking.

I agree with everything except the implications of the last bit - we are likely to have to go through many cycles of infection whatever happens, given that staying locked down in perpetuity is not possible or desirable. The overwhelming evidence is that most healthy "key workers" will NOT be seriously affected by Covid - and the ONS found that the rate of infection amongst health care workers was no greater than that in other occupation groups.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@pam w, and worth bearing in mind that the last pandemic of the 19th century, the 1889-90 one ("Asiatic" or "Russian") which killed around 1,000,000 people is suspected by some researchers to have been caused by coronavirus OC43, which is one of the causes of the common cold... and given that it hasn't been considered a severe illness since - oh I don't know - 1940s?
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Quote:

The Yanks are still not mid way through their first wave, let alone looking at a 2nd. It looks like being a very long one if that Idiot gets his way

Even back in early April this was reported
Quote:
'Trump is killing his own supporters' – even White House insiders know it
....but of course that is "fake news" Toofy Grin

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/05/trump-is-killing-his-own-supporters-coronavirus-covid-19
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
pam w wrote:
Quote:

Herd immunity is really a term more used for immunisation regimes (i.e. what's the minimum %immunisation level at which you can tolerate people being unvaccinated). Whereas 'natural' herd immunity can take years/decades to achieve (and involve repeated cycles of severe infection fallout).

This large pool of uninfected means that we could go through many cycles of lockdown/death spikes/death reduction/unlocking/epidemic if we're over-eager with unlocking.

I agree with everything except the implications of the last bit - we are likely to have to go through many cycles of infection whatever happens, given that staying locked down in perpetuity is not possible or desirable. The overwhelming evidence is that most healthy "key workers" will NOT be seriously affected by Covid - and the ONS found that the rate of infection amongst health care workers was no greater than that in other occupation groups.


Are we looking at the same ONS data?

"For individuals working in patient-facing healthcare or resident-facing social care roles, 1.33% tested positive for COVID-19 (95% confidence interval: 0.39% to 3.28%); of those reporting not working in these roles, 0.22% tested positive for COVID-19 (95% confidence interval: 0.13% to 0.35%)"

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/england14may2020
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@snowdave, yes, sorry. I was remembering it wrong - what the ONS said that HCWs were not more likely to die from covid (whereas care workers, bouncers and bus and taxi drivers were).
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@pam_w 'I agree with everything except the implications of the last bit' [re-infection cycles and their effects]

Yes, I wasn't meaning to be definitive - I'm no expert. Just more a case of musing about the pattern of future cycles - will there even be any? what will different countries see? will an age segmentation approach work or not? and so on.

My personal hobby-horse is that Coronavirus is actually one of the least serious (and I definitely don't mean that in a dismissive way, quite the reverse) potential epidemic/ pandemic models outlined by the experts. For a long time now, medics have been increasingly worried about antibiotic-resistant common illnesses. Or a virus/microbial illness which, like H1N1 Spanish 'Flu, hits the 20s-40s hardest.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
brianatab wrote:
The Yanks are still not mid way through their first wave, let alone looking at a 2nd. It looks like being a very long one if that Idiot gets his way.

I can see the EU keeping travel restrictions on the US for a long time yet.



EU deaths = 165,000
US deaths = 93,000
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Whitegold wrote:
brianatab wrote:
The Yanks are still not mid way through their first wave, let alone looking at a 2nd. It looks like being a very long one if that Idiot gets his way.

I can see the EU keeping travel restrictions on the US for a long time yet.



EU deaths = 165,000
US deaths = 93,000


UK not in the EU
keep up
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
UK deathrate = 521 per million
US deathrate = 281 per million
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Whitegold wrote:
UK deathrate = 521 per million
US deathrate = 281 per million


Belgium = 786 deaths per million (11.5 mill)
Sweden = 371 (population 10 mill)
Brazil will become worrying!


There's still a great deal of mileage with CV to go with first phase death rates. Skullie
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
death rates per mllion per country or per anything are meaningless unless countries are counting by the same method which they arent
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Quote:

There's still a great deal of mileage with CV to go with first phase death rates.

Too true, sadly. Given that the high death toll in care homes in the UK is from around 40% of homes, we will have more deaths when the infection gets into more homes - as it almost certainly will. And there are parts of the country where infection rates are still catching up with London.
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