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Is the 2020/2021 a non starter?

 Poster: A snowHead
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skimastaaah wrote:
.... the "14.4%" figure is taken from UK government data, not my own made up shizzle!

But combine that with today's estimate that, outside of hospitals and care homes, only around 0.25% of the England population, around 150000 people, actually has coronavirus. The majority of whom probably won't even need hospitalisation, let alone ITU. And numbers are falling.
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@brianatab, You are right in that the impact of Covid 19 appears to be very dependent on social inequalities. It does appear that poor people are suffering much more than rich people. But isn't that always the way.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Pruman wrote:


Professor Chris Whitty is a Fellow of the Royal College of Physicians



That's why I'm stunned the ridiculous "herd immunity" was championed by these guys.



BTW Skimastaaah …. got my Bronze Medallion.


Last edited by Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see? on Thu 14-05-20 21:39; edited 1 time in total
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Whilst the death figures are alarming regardless of how they are calculated It is very worrying that upto 50% of people who had only minor symptoms have been left with liver damage and/or lung damage which may be long lasting. Whilst these figures have not been peer reviewed they are being taken seriously by many in the medical profession. The possible link to Kawasaki disease in children, who had only minor symptoms, is also of concern as it can lead to long term heart problems.
There is still a lot to learn about this virus and just because it only kills "the aged who have already have their life" and those with "underlying problems" don't think it won't make you very ill for a few weeks and possibly leave you with long lasting health problems. It will be months before we know the true effect of this virus and those findings may have a big impact on how you view things come next winter.
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Quote:

The possible link to Kawasaki disease in children, who had only minor symptoms, is also of concern as it can lead to long term heart problems.

I don't think that's true. Children usually recover from Kawasaki disease without long term complications. The reason why more children (but still small numbers) seem to be suffering from Kawasaki, or something similar, and how it's related to Covid 19, is not understood.
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tarrantd wrote:
Whilst the death figures are alarming regardless of how they are calculated It is very worrying that upto 50% of people who had only minor symptoms have been left with liver damage and/or lung damage which may be long lasting. Whilst these figures have not been peer reviewed they are being taken seriously by many in the medical profession. The possible link to Kawasaki disease in children, who had only minor symptoms, is also of concern as it can lead to long term heart problems.
There is still a lot to learn about this virus and just because it only kills "the aged who have already have their life" and those with "underlying problems" don't think it won't make you very ill for a few weeks and possibly leave you with long lasting health problems. It will be months before we know the true effect of this virus and those findings may have a big impact on how you view things come next winter.


+1
The morbidity effects (and, as an observation, the financial cost to us all) may well outweigh the mortality effects. It may well, as @tarrantd says, change how we all view this virus. Being dead may not worry people (me) but being permanently impaired might (me).
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@johnE, I think you missed my point. I was saying not to blame social inequalities, if there are preventable health problems that are causing the seemingly unequal chances of recovery.

This Virus is a great leveler. It doesn't care how affluent you are if it can infect you.

People who live in overcrowded conditions might have a greater probability of catching the virus from another member of a large household, but exactly the same probability of catching it on public transport, large gathering, or a pub/restaurant as someone considered socially better off.

A commuter traveling on a crowded train into a city like London, then the tube or bus have exactly the same chances of coming into contact with a carrier as every one else, regardless on income.

The difference is that, if you don't have preventable underlying illnesses, the chances of needing intensive care, or dying will be drastically reduced.

watch this link
http://youtube.com/v/GCSXNGc7pfs

42% of US population vitamin D deficient
82% in Black people
70% in Hispanics

Who appear to be hardest hit by the virus?

UK. 74% below level for optimum wellbeing, 27% deficient (less than 1/3 optimum level)
Don't know if a breakdown by race is available. I suspect not in the PC UK, but some ethnic groups are known to have significant vitamin D problems.

25% of deaths in UK had Diabetes (6% of population) (Thanks @skimastaaah)

We won't know for sure until the figures are properly analysed, but this sort of statistical variance is significant.

If nothing else, it might encourage some people to improve their health.

Having stated the above, I am aware that there have been a number of victims who appeared healthy. Unfortunately, investigations into the reasons might get lost in the total numbers.

On a positive note, I didn't save the link, but read that Vitamin D deficiency can be reduced by supplements within a couple of months in many cases. However, it cannot help once the virus has taken hold, and is counter productive in intensive care.
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Quote:

This Virus is a great leveler. It doesn't care how affluent you are if it can infect you.


This doesn't appear in the statistics. In fact the opposite appears to be the fact; far more poor people are infected and killed.
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[quote="skimastaaah"]
That's why I'm stunned the ridiculous "herd immunity" was championed by these guys.

What is/was this & where is your evidence (1)that it was championed &(2) that it’s ridiculous. We got rid of smallpox through herd immunity, the same for MMR was almost achieved until some people decided it was close enough that they didn’t need to vaccinate their children, allowing all 3 to raise their ugly heads again.
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johnE wrote:
Quote:
This Virus is a great leveler. It doesn't care how affluent you are if it can infect you.

This doesn't appear in the statistics. In fact the opposite appears to be the fact; far more poor people are infected and killed.

There does appears to be a correlation between "poor people" and rates of infection/death, but that does not necessarily mean that one causes the other. More likely it is something like: a greater proportion of less afffluent people either smoke or have diabetes or some other health impairment; and smoking/diabetes/other impairment DOES increase the likelihood of a poor outcome. A "poor person" in good health probably has just as good an expectation as an affluent person in good health.
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https://www.spiked-online.com/podcast-episode/this-is-international-hysteria/
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Very interesting. I started off thinking “What the heck can a journalist talking to a novelist have the say on science & healthcare?” It didn’t take long to think that they are actually talking a lot of sense even though a bit extreme, eg not taking into account the temporary nature of the laws passed to address the emergency. Also their very gloomy predictions for the future of the economy.
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Return to speculation on skiing season in 2020/21 rather than covid-19 fatality/mortality rates etc (we should have a separate thread of that - one that I would probably read as snowheads are generally able to have sensible debate versus what I see on my Facebook feed)...

Living in Sweden I’m a little concerned about the earlier mentioned potential travel restrictions for countries perceived not to have managed crisis well. I’m in support of the Swedish approach which has achieved what most set out to do - flatten the curve - whilst maintaining what we can of a functioning society and economy. The latest results show 0.9% of Swedes are infected right now. And logically there is a higher chance of a Swede having antibodies already. But anyway, I guess any travel agreements will mostly be political and based on perception not science and facts.

Sweden is allowing visitors from the EU without any quarantine, which is good if we can actually travel in terms of coming home. The advice for Swedes themselves is still only essential travel, domestically and abroad.

The borders are still effectively shut for our Nordic neighbours. I’m hoping for relaxation between the Nordic counties, but it doesn’t seem on the cards.

I was planning to hike and camp in the Swedish mountains anyway this summer. Probably would have gone hiking in the Norwegian fjords if I could, and the feeds on my Facebook page from summer ski places in Norway looks great right now Sad

Next winter season will be skiing in Sweden to support the ski industry here. And Norway perhaps if they let us in. I have flights booked for around the PSB, which were cheap, so hopeful about that. Fingers crossed.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
[quote="Gordyjh"]
skimastaaah wrote:

That's why I'm stunned the ridiculous "herd immunity" was championed by these guys.

What is/was this & where is your evidence (1)that it was championed &(2) that it’s ridiculous. We got rid of smallpox through herd immunity, the same for MMR was almost achieved until some people decided it was close enough that they didn’t need to vaccinate their children, allowing all 3 to raise their ugly heads again.


Isn’t “herd immunity” pretty much the only way to eradicate/manage a virus, whether that immunity is gained from infection or a vaccine? The effect is the same - fewer people susceptible to infection.
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@Gordyjh, read...….. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/12/documents-contradict-uk-government-stance-on-covid-19-herd-immunity

Sweden has 350 deaths per million, that's 7 times that of Norway, …………………… check the figures here ……. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

"Hancock set out the government’s position in an article for the Sunday Telegraph on 14 March, explicitly denying that it was aiming for herd immunity. “We have a plan, based on the expertise of world-leading scientists. Herd immunity is not a part of it. That is a scientific concept, not a goal or a strategy.”

"Matt Hancock gave that response on 14 March after two senior government officials had said publicly that achieving “herd immunity” was a key aim, prompting widespread alarm among medical experts that the British government was planning to allow the majority of the population to become infected."


"On 13 March, the government’s chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, defended the existing approach and said that building up some form of herd immunity, by having potentially 60% of the population (40 million people) contract Covid-19, was one of the “key things we need to do”.
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Guy Verhofstadt, no less, is getting all hot and bothered by the fragmentation of the EU's steps to release the lockdown. His recent tweet:

"The chaos in the Union has to stop! We need a uniform decision by the Commission to reopen internal borders + uniform security & health measures in the whole Schengen area. Vague “recommendations” will only be applied in different ways by the member states".

So, EU nations, you have been told!
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@skimastaaah, if you will sully your brain with the Grauniad, what can you expect? I go back to the PM’s statement at the time when he said letting the disease go through the community until herd immunity was achieved was a valid strategy but not one he favoured because the NHS would become overwhelmed by the peak of cases being greater than its capacity to treat them, therefore he favoured trying to suppress that peak and save lives by not overwhelming the NHS’ capacity. This HMG achieved.

The current problem is how to restart the economy without restarting the infection rate. If HMG doesn’t get things moving soon, more people will die as a result of recession and poverty than from COVID19. It’s a difficult balancing act to pull off and all I know is that I’m glad I don’t have to make those decisions!
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@andy from embsay, absolutely!
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Quote:

We got rid of smallpox through herd immunity

A massive global vaccination campaign was the key to getting rid of smallpox, which killed something like a hundred million people in the 20th century. Covid-19 is small fry in comparison.
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@pam w, the vaccination campaign led to herd immunity, eradication, saving life etc as I understand it.

I just get tired of conspiracy theorists effectively saying “HMG is a bunch of rotters who don’t care about people & want to get herd immunity...” as if getting to herd immunity is a bad thing, as if only opponents of HMG can possibly care about people etc.
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[quote="pam w"]
Quote:


A massive global vaccination campaign was the key to getting rid of smallpox, which killed something like a hundred million people in the 20th century. Covid-19 is small fry in comparison.


Even allowing for the vast increase in world population, Covid 19, if left unchecked has the capacity to far exceed that of smallpox.

Over 300,000 worldwide "recorded" deaths in only 3 months. Actual total is probably well over 1 million already.

Hardly small fry!
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@gordyjh +1.

skimastaaah wrote:
..."On 13 March, the government’s chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, defended the existing approach and said that building up some form of herd immunity, by having potentially 60% of the population (40 million people) contract Covid-19, was one of the “key things we need to do”.
To be fair, that might still be true. If a vaccine can't be found - noting that for flu people have been searching for decades - then a degree of herd immunity might be the best we can hope for, if we want to return to restriction free worldwide travel.

In the short term, we can hope to drive it out of the UK population by lockdown measures, and perhaps the same in most other first-world countries. But it could be a long time before it is driven to low levels worldwide, so restrictions on travel to more exotic ski destinations might last for years.
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Quote:

noting that for flu people have been searching for decades

Don't we have one available every year already?

I've booked onto the the Off Piste Bash but anything else will be last minute. I'm sure skiing will happen but as others have said, I'm sure the non-ski part of any trips will be quite different.
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Gordyjh wrote:
@pam w, the vaccination campaign led to herd immunity, eradication, saving life etc as I understand it.

I just get tired of conspiracy theorists effectively saying “HMG is a bunch of rotters who don’t care about people & want to get herd immunity...” as if getting to herd immunity is a bad thing, as if only opponents of HMG can possibly care about people etc.


Yes, smallpox was eradicated through vaccination, of which herd immunity is a natural consequence (i.e. vaccinating people gives immunity). So the key bit is the vaccination. Hence why all the talk of getting herd immunity for coronavirus was misplaced (or very risky), until we get a vaccine in place.
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@Gordyjh, wrote
Quote:

the vaccination campaign led to herd immunity, eradication, saving life etc as I understand it.

Not as I understand it. Smallpox ravaged the world for a millenium and was an endemic disease, world-wide, well into the 20th century. A degree of "herd immunity" kept death tolls down, but they were still significant. Vaccination did not "lead to" herd immunity - on the contrary, it did away with it.

@brianatab, wrote
Quote:

Even allowing for the vast increase in world population, Covid 19, if left unchecked has the capacity to far exceed that of smallpox.


Rubbish. Smallpox was at least as contagious as Covid-19 and the case fatality rate much higher. Covid-19 is a serious threat to certain groups but to suggest it could wipe out a bigger proportion of the world's population than smallpox did is absurd.
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And back on track ………….. BERLIN (Reuters) - Germany will loosen coronavirus quarantine rules for travellers arriving from the European Union, the Schengen passport-free zone and Britain, a spokesman for the Interior Ministry said on Friday.

There needs to be an EU-wide consistent policy regarding the opening of borders that allows for non-restrictive or quarantine arrivals for all EU/UK travellers.
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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8322363/Coronavirus-UK-France-WONT-exempted-14-day-isolation-rules.html
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Daily Fail - so not reliable. But the whole thing is chaotic at the moment, like so much else.
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You know it makes sense.
BERLIN (AP) — Germany and several other European countries where the coronavirus spread has slowed were moving ahead Friday with relaxing border restrictions.

Slovenia, which has been gradually easing strict lockdown measures, declared that the spread of the virus is now under control and that European Union residents could now enter from Austria, Italy and Hungary.

Germany, meantime, was preparing to open its border entirely with Luxembourg at midnight, and increase the number of crossings open from France, Switzerland and Austria. Travelers will still need to demonstrate a “valid reason” to enter Germany and there will be spot checks, but the goal is to restore free travel by June 15.
Germany's states have also agreed to drop a mandatory 14-day quarantine for travelers entering from the European Union and several other European countries, including Britain, said Armin Laschet, the governor of the western state of North Rhine-Westphalia.
“Germany will only overcome the corona crisis if European freedom of movement for people, goods and services is fully restored,” Laschet said.
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Quote:

Germany and several other European countries where the coronavirus spread has slowed

Germany has eased lockdown but it's not true that the virus has "slowed" - cases have tripled in recent days. It's impossible at this stage to have any clear idea how things will look during the 2020/21 ski season but it makes sense to make low-key plans (I have very cheap and dispensable easyjet flights to Geneva for Christmas) and start thinking about our own personal attitude to the risk from C-19 - which has to start from the basis that it will continue to exist!
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pam w wrote:
@Gordyjh, wrote
Quote:

the vaccination campaign led to herd immunity, eradication, saving life etc as I understand it.

Not as I understand it. Smallpox ravaged the world for a millenium and was an endemic disease, world-wide, well into the 20th century. A degree of "herd immunity" kept death tolls down, but they were still significant. Vaccination did not "lead to" herd immunity - on the contrary, it did away with it.


I'm agree the point that you're making i.e. vaccination rid the world of small pox. There's just an element of how you classify the term 'Herd Immunity'. At the current time, the term herd immunity refers to a natural herd immunity i.e. in the absence of a vaccination for Coronavirus, the hope was that enough people catch it and recover so that we develop herd immunity.

However, prior to Coronavirus, herd immunity simply meant that that the herd are immune, however that happens. So for smallpox, a vaccine was developed which makes people immune from the virus - and thus if enough people are vaccinated then you have a large % of the population that are immune (and this you have herd immunity).

Lots of WHO documents on smallpox will refer to vaccination leading to herd immunity. So it's cause and effect - the cause of eradication of small pox was vaccination, the effect of vaccination was herd immunity.

(But that's very different to the herd immunity that people refer to in regards of Coronavirus)
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In the end it all comes down to just one thing: social distancing in skilifts...
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Handy Turnip wrote:
... '. At the current time, the term herd immunity refers to a natural herd immunity i.e. in the absence of a vaccination for Coronavirus, the hope was that enough people catch it and recover so that we develop herd immunity.

However, prior to Coronavirus, herd immunity simply meant that that the herd ...
Ignoring the lack of evidence for any such change in meaning (!),
you're attempting to make a meaningless distinction.

The virus has no way of knowing how immunity develops. That's pretty much the whole point of vaccination.

If you want to make a political point, make it. On the other hand if you have to make up stuff like this in order to justify it, perhaps the point is simply incorrect?
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@Handy Turnip, wrote
Quote:

So for smallpox, a vaccine was developed which makes people immune from the virus - and thus if enough people are vaccinated then you have a large % of the population that are immune (and this you have herd immunity).

That might be true if we had continued to vaccinate people against smallpox. But we didn't. The immunity conferred by smallpox vaccination doesn't last for ever. There must be vanishingly few people now with any immunity to smallpox. If it escaped from one of those labs, C-19 would soon seem trivial in comparison.
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Herd immunity is the point at which enough people are immunised that the remaining un-immunised (un-infected) proportion of the population is small enough for any furter episodes of infection to subside, and not spread (R< 1). The value of any immunisation programme is to reach this point rapidly, without decades-long cycles of re-infection from the un-immunised pool. The caveat is that to work, you need a majority of people to be inmmunised and this proportion can be as high as 95% for some diseases. You can't have a significant minority refusing to be immunised, because the whole exerise is then pointless. Moreover, delaying immunsation may allow the virus to mutate, thus missing the opportunity to eradicate it fully/substantially.

People sometimes propose 'natural' herd immunity as preferable to the perceived dangers of immunisation. You can make the decision for yourselves whether you want a Black Death/Spanish 'Flu scenario or an immunisation programme.

In the period before an effective vaccine is available (and importantly, taken up by enough people to achieve herd immunity), there isn't much you can do, but impose social distancing to moderate the (re)infection cycles. You may get to a herd immunity point but it's likely to take some time, involve multiple re-infection cycles, and all that follows form that. Worse, the virus may mutate so that you never succeed in fully eradicating it.

'If it escaped from one of those labs, C-19 would soon seem trivial in comparison.'

Actually, they still have the original strain of Spanish 'Flu in a couple of labs in the USA. This is because it was realised that at one point, we had no live Spanish 'Flu virus anywhere and needed some in case it re-appeared from some long-frozen source and wanted a vaccine ready. It was eventually found, live, in Inuit corpses buried in the Permafrost from the early 1900s. Scientists estimated that if the original Spanish 'Flu was resurrected in s similar way, with no vaccine, the global death toll would be around the 50-60 million mark. So good thing they did get hold of it and have that vaccine ready, just in case. Inuit mortality rates from Spanish 'Flu were 100% in some communities. Spanish 'Flu was particularly pernicious because as well as hitting the very old and very young, it proved particularly bad for many younger 20-40 year-olds: the virus would send their robust and healthy immune systems into a massive overdrive which would kill them.


Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Fri 15-05-20 15:00; edited 1 time in total
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pam w wrote:
@Handy Turnip, wrote
Quote:

So for smallpox, a vaccine was developed which makes people immune from the virus - and thus if enough people are vaccinated then you have a large % of the population that are immune (and this you have herd immunity).

That might be true if we had continued to vaccinate people against smallpox. But we didn't. The immunity conferred by smallpox vaccination doesn't last for ever. There must be vanishingly few people now with any immunity to smallpox. If it escaped from one of those labs, C-19 would soon seem trivial in comparison.


Yes 100% agree (I don't think we're arguing different points). Vaccination naturally leads to herd immunity, which eradicated smallpox. But no-one vaccinates against smallpox anymore because it doesn't exist anymore, but that also means no-one has any immunity anymore so if it did get released from a lab (which was always the fear) then we'd be in trouble.

Tbh I'm not sure what the question is here!

What eradicated smallpox? Vaccination (of which herd immunity was a consequence)
Do we still have herd immunity from smallpox? No, of course not
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I am a Physicist, not an virologist, but anyway.....in the absence of a vaccine (which of course gives you herd immunity artificially quickly), I can't see any way out of severe lockdown without some element of herd immunity the natural way to protect the small % who get badly ill. I accept that the term compares people to cows which is not user-friendly, perhaps we should be using terms like social/viral screening to make it more palatable? But it is important to note that the % needed for this is different for every virus depending on how quickly it spreads. Lots of reports now out that for CV, you only need 20-30% rather than 60-70% because most people are asymptomatic and they do not transfer virus anywhere as quickly as people who are ill with it and who are coughing and spluttering all over the place. that and the fact people are being much more careful with hygiene etc. In general the easier it is to transmit, the higher the %-for example measles (with an R of 15-20) needs over 90-95% immunity to keep it in check.
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The herd immunity concept might be great but relies on either a vaccine or immunity through infection. As I understand it the jury is still out on whether recovery from Covid-19 leaves you immune and if so for how long. I await further developments rather than rely on optimism and conjecture from internet pundits.
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Good luck waiting-it might be some time before we get 100% confirmation of anything.....
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@snowhound, any scientific references for that "lots of reported" 20-30% claim?

The Lancet in a relatively recent article "What policy makers need to know about COVID-19 protective immunity" suggested 60%+ https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30985-5/fulltext based on an R0 of 2.2, but notes that "this percentage increases if R0 has been underestimated". I'm not sure what R0 you're implying with 20-30%, but it may be so close to 1 that it's highly unlikely.

I highly recommend this article; it's short, readable, in a proper journal, and counteracts some of the wilder theories that appear (including on here Happy ).

Edited - snowheads hamsters struggling to recognise that link, so as a bitly: https://bit.ly/2Lzv2wI
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