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Is the 2020/2021 a non starter?

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philwig wrote:


I'm happy to explain how "threads" work if you specify what you mean by that, although it's not specifically a modelling concept.


I'm sure ICL will be happy to have your help.
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@davidof, Do ICL have a "model" for the opening of ski resorts for the 20/21 season. If so please do not pass it on to BoJo, he'll FCUK that up too!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@rob@rar, good question. Keeping the SAGE names and discussions secret is extremely naughty. I'd like to know if it was just Ferguson, Ferguson and his team, Ferguson and team A, B, C etc.
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justabod wrote:
@rob@rar, good question. Keeping the SAGE names and discussions secret is extremely naughty.
Names of (almost all) people who take part in SAGE were released last week and they have released another tranch of documents, but further openness is necessary, IMO, and should have been right from the start. There was one or two scientific press briefings in March, led by the Chief Science Adviser and Chief Medical Officer, with questions mainly from science journalists. I thought these were excellent, and they should have continued once every week or so. But I guess Ministers like to be in the limelight...
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Yes, I was pleased Witty was in charge. Now it's just a cavalcade of well-suited nobodies and children like Raab and Sunak, professional non-entities promoted because they are Johnson yes-men. Watching their bewilderment is pathetic: this is what happens when you recruit Oxford smart-back bottoms under forty who've never been under real pressure in their lives.

I also get annoyed by the Union Jacks in the background of these briefings: like the bloody Americans and I agree with Peter Hitchens that the flags represent the country, not the gov't.
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rob@rar wrote:
@davidof, thanks. I'm not anywhere near qualified to comment on the technicalities you raise, but certainly agree with your point that these things should be open to scrutiny.


Not much I understand about this, but here's some scrutiny of the Imperial College coding for their epidemiology modelling done by a professional software coder, Steve Rawlings (who explains his professional experience in the first thread):

Thread 1 (which responds to the criticism posted on lockdownsceptics.org, who might have a bias looking at the name of their website).

Thread 2.

The criticism seems to be that it's rather 'clunky' coding, or "academic coding" v. "professional coding" as Steve Rawlings suggests. That might well be true, but does that mean that the assumptions made by the Imperial team are wrong, the model they built is wrong, and the answers they get out of the process are wrong? Or does it mean that the coding could be more elegant, leading to greater efficiency when they run their modelling exercises, but the actual outcomes would be no different?
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rob@rar wrote:
justabod wrote:
@rob@rar, good question. Keeping the SAGE names and discussions secret is extremely naughty.
Names of (almost all) people who take part in SAGE were released last week and they have released another tranch of documents, but further openness is necessary, IMO, and should have been right from the start. There was one or two scientific press briefings in March, led by the Chief Science Adviser and Chief Medical Officer, with questions mainly from science journalists. I thought these were excellent, and they should have continued once every week or so. But I guess Ministers like to be in the limelight...


I suspect they are concerned about being accused of 'hiding' if they don't show up.
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
achilles wrote:
I suspect they are concerned about being accused of 'hiding' if they don't show up.
I don't think there were any such accusations when the scientific press briefings took place in March (I guess because there' a clue in the title). I'm not suggesting that a scientific press briefing replaces the daily press briefing led by a Minister, just that they would be a useful addition to the communication with the media and the public.
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Some interesting stuff here .

https://chrisvoncsefalvay.com/2020/05/09/imperial-covid-model/
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rob@rar wrote:
rob@rar wrote:
@davidof, thanks. I'm not anywhere near qualified to comment on the technicalities you raise, but certainly agree with your point that these things should be open to scrutiny.


Not much I understand about this, but here's some scrutiny of the Imperial College coding for their epidemiology modelling done by a professional software coder, Steve Rawlings (who explains his professional experience in the first thread):

Thread 1 (which responds to the criticism posted on lockdownsceptics.org, who might have a bias looking at the name of their website).

Thread 2.

The criticism seems to be that it's rather 'clunky' coding, or "academic coding" v. "professional coding" as Steve Rawlings suggests. That might well be true, but does that mean that the assumptions made by the Imperial team are wrong, the model they built is wrong, and the answers they get out of the process are wrong? Or does it mean that the coding could be more elegant, leading to greater efficiency when they run their modelling exercises, but the actual outcomes would be no different?
The style of coding says absolutely nothing about the quality of the results. Is there any in depth analysis of their code that reveals actual bugs, or is this just some kind of code snobbery at work?
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justabod wrote:

I also get annoyed by the Union Jacks in the background of these briefings: like the bloody Americans and I agree with Peter Hitchens that the flags represent the country, not the gov't.


Does it annoy you when Macron, Merkel, Sturgeon, Drakeford, Varadkar, Putin etc. do it?

The govt of any country represent that country and of course they will present in front of their flag.

It seems only the English can be called racist or xenophobic, for taking displaying their flag.
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Quote:
Quote:
It seems only the English can be called racist or xenophobic, for taking displaying their flag.

Um Nick. He said Union Jack mate......
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Steilhang wrote:
The style of coding says absolutely nothing about the quality of the results. Is there any in depth analysis of their code that reveals actual bugs, or is this just some kind of code snobbery at work?
That's what I've been looking for. All I've been able to find is some professional animosity between Ferguson and a former colleague, which I don't think was direct criticism of his modelling; some comments about what I'd describe as the 'elegance' of his coding rather than whether it is a realistic model; and some ham-fisted character assassination by the press (and a couple of people here) when he resigned from SAGE. His team seem to be frequent publishers in academic journals, so all peer-reviewed and I've not been able to find any major rebuttals of his work, including by the other epidemiological modellers on SAGE (including London's School of Tropical Medicine led by John Edmunds, IIRC).
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@rob@rar, right. So the questions that need to be asked are a) is the model correct / accurate b) is the implementation of the model in ICL code correct.
Have yet to see any reasoned analysis of either of those questions
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
rob@rar wrote:
rob@rar wrote:
@davidof, thanks. I'm not anywhere near qualified to comment on the technicalities you raise, but certainly agree with your point that these things should be open to scrutiny.


Not much I understand about this, but here's some scrutiny of the Imperial College coding for their epidemiology modelling done by a professional software coder, Steve Rawlings (who explains his professional experience in the first thread):


As far as I am aware Steve Rawlings hasn't seen the code on which the Ferguson March report is based. So his comments, and those of the critique he is referring to, don't count for a hill of beans.

Look Rob, you're reasonable. Do you really want decisions to shut down the whole economy based on some program that hasn't been published, hasn't been peer reviewed, has been hacked up by a non-coder and has not been written in accordance with even a minimum of what would be called standard engineering practices[1] (I'm not talking best practices here) ?

Shutting the UK was a political decision and it is politicians who will have to answer for how they acted, Fergusson had a role in that but the buck stops with BoJo.

Anyway, not really my shoe, not really my stone.
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davidof wrote:
Look Rob, you're reasonable. Do you really want decisions to shut down the whole economy based on some program that hasn't been published, hasn't been peer reviewed, has been hacked up by a non-coder and has not been written in accordance with even a minimum of what would be called standard engineering practices[1] (I'm not talking best practices here) ?
No, as I have previously said about SAGE in general and in reply to you about Ferguson's work I would like to see much more openness and proper scientific scrutiny of the advice which the government is receiving. I first made that point on here back in March. But what has been said of Ferguson's work seems to me to be either irrelevant to the key question of whether the model his team has developed is robust enough to base advice on, or just plain personal attacks. I don't think that kind of scrutiny is especially helpful right now. If there are people out there who can demonstrate his model is wrong they should speak up.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
davidof wrote:
Shutting the UK was a political decision and it is politicians who will have to answer for how they acted, Fergusson had a role in that but the buck stops with BoJo.
Exactly right. Scientists advise, politicians decide. Scientists on tap, not on top.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@NickYoung, I happily display the St. George's Cross after I met some very highly-educated idiots who said that the Cross was a "racist" flag. Sometimes you have to be educated into stupidity...

In an international situation it makes sense to identify the speaker however that's not necessary when addressing one's own people. The government represent the people not the whole nation: the Queen as Sovereign does that.
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skimastaaah wrote:
rob@rar wrote:
skimastaaah wrote:
The spread of Covid-19 in the UK is proportional to the delay in locking down.

Compare now the UK deaths with Austria, Germany, and Switzerland in terms of deaths per 100,000 population.
I think the UK and Germany locked down at about the same time (one day apart?). The picture in Germany slightly complicated by different States having slightly different responses, but broadly speaking no difference between when the UK and Germany went in to lockdown as I understand it.


So that's why UK deaths are 31,800 and Germany 7,500.

The delay included 3 days at Cheltenham, and the Liverpool/Madrid footie match. Most certainly a 6 day delay!

Currently the UK has the second highest deaths globally. Whichever way you want to defend this government's strategies, the bare facts are chilling.


Spurs played away in Germany the day before Liverpool. The last bundesliga match was the same night as the liverpool game.
There was already cases known in the UK & people still choose to attend the events.

As for deaths, a lot of nations have not counted all deaths as thorough as the UK are now doing. UK are including those who die in hospital, care homes, as well as at home. As do Belgium.

Ive read that Germany are not counting people with Covid & a condition that they would of died of anyway as covid deaths. Every country are smudging the pencil as best they can.
It is estimated there is still 17,000 uncounted deaths in Spanish Care system for example, as spain are only counting people that was tested who died, not the dead who have been untested.

So you can see why UK is supposedly has the highest total number of deaths & Belgium the most deaths per 100,000 when both countries are counting all related deaths.

example :-
Code:
A Reuters calculation based on official data from March 1 to April 10 indicates the coronavirus death toll could be several thousand higher, or as much as 49% above the government’s tally.
Between those dates, Spain reported 16,353 coronavirus deaths. But according to the National Epidemiology Centre’s database MoMo, as of Monday there were 22,487 more deaths than normal for the time of year over the exact same period.


Code:
A total of 17,585 people have died of coronavirus or with associated symptoms at residences run by Spain’s social services, according to a tally made by EL PAÍS using figures provided by regional governments.

It is impossible to know how many of Spain’s Covid-19 victims were living in care homes. But by comparing both death counts – the official national toll of 25,857 on Wednesday and the 17,585 deaths at social services centers, using Tuesday figures
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Well this thread has gone off piste
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20/21 is increasingly looking like a non starter unless Europe (and UK) can agree a standard health check (is that even possible) prior to flying/travelling so that 14 day quarantine is avoided.
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The good news is that with the 'need' for masks n all that on the tube, I've finally found a use for all them Snowheads buffs - dear ol dadmin delivers even during Pandemics snowHead
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Bennyboy1 wrote:
20/21 is increasingly looking like a non starter unless Europe (and UK) can agree a standard health check (is that even possible) prior to flying/travelling so that 14 day quarantine is avoided.
Well, I think it depends precisely what they mean.

If you just have to stay home for 14 days on return, well that's hardly a problem as most of us already do that today.
If reciprocally you have to quarantine for 14 days at your (snow place) destination, well that's annoying, but hanging out
somewhere else isn't a lot different from hanging out here, from my perspective, so that too is something I can easily deal with.

Or if the EU doesn't have the same restriction, then travelling through there and then back here from France or Ireland
would presumably do the job. Or just stay out all season and suck up the 14 day hassle at each end. What else was I going to do, locked down at home?

Then maybe if I keep an eye open for places like Sweden it's possible that the logistics can be made to work, albeit probably at
the last minute. Backwoods US does have bands of armed fascists, but it also has pretty low levels of the disease (so far), possibly because
of the geography. Combined with their crazy leadership, there may be options for going there. Iceland's another possibility - small, not that
commonly visited, and last time I looked in control of things.
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philwig wrote:
Bennyboy1 wrote:
20/21 is increasingly looking like a non starter unless Europe (and UK) can agree a standard health check (is that even possible) prior to flying/travelling so that 14 day quarantine is avoided.
Well, I think it depends precisely what they mean.

If you just have to stay home for 14 days on return, well that's hardly a problem as most of us already do that today.
If reciprocally you have to quarantine for 14 days at your (snow place) destination, well that's annoying, but hanging out
somewhere else isn't a lot different from hanging out here, from my perspective, so that too is something I can easily deal with.


Ok, so, for those that work their employers are going to be quite happy that they then have to take two weeks off to isolate after having voluntarily taken a foreign holiday, in the full knowledge of the consequences and not long after months of disruption and losses. Good luck with that one.

Or for those for whom a week at a time is normally the best they can hope for will happily pay for three weeks accommodation of which for two weeks they can't leave their hotel room?

Jeez, I'd better start queuing now? rolling eyes Puzzled
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@robboj, agreed, it’s a non-starter.
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Why is France considered safer than Switzerland, Austria, Italy, Spain etc?
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BobinCH wrote:
Why is France considered safer than Switzerland, Austria, Italy, Spain etc?


Politics I guess. CH and AUT are much safer than France.
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I'm not sure I understand this
Quote:

Look Rob, you're reasonable. Do you really want decisions to shut down the whole economy based on some program that hasn't been published, hasn't been peer reviewed, has been hacked up by a non-coder and has not been written in accordance with even a minimum of what would be called standard engineering practices[1] (I'm not talking best practices here) ?

The R scripts used in this research are published on the Imperial web site. R is a very well respected statistical analysis and modelling package extensively used in geospatial research. I would be suprised if the models had been written in any other language. The March paper is available in the public domain and looks spot on to me. The assumptions are clearly stated.

Anyway what I want to know is why the UK government isn't telling us where the infections are. The UK police used to have a very nice part of their web site where you could enter your postcode and it would didplay a map showing all the crimes reported in your vicinity, including what type of crime it was. I used to find this very reassuring (muggings were actually so rare I it had no effect on my behaviour). This application is no longer available, but it could be repurposed to show cases of Covid-19, possibly including age, underlying conditions etc. I suppose for privacy concerns it could be aggregated to super output area (or even for the whole of Europe using the finest resolution NUTS). The software is already there all it needs is someone to enter the data. That way I can decide whether to go to that corner shop in Small Heath or a walk in the local park.

I wrote to my MP with the suggestion, who appeared not to even undestand the proposal.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Perhaps it is a communication problem but I don't understand these quarantine rules. As I see it at the moment it goes like this.

If you fly into the UK from outside the UK then you have to undertake 14 days quarantine
This does not apply if you arrive by boat, train or car.
It does not apply if you come from Ireland or France
Quarantine will take place in your own home
I suppose you will be issued with a ASBO anklet and driven to your own home in the back of a sealed vehicle.

So you will be permitted to get the ferry from the Isle of Man to England without quarantine but must isolate if you flew.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
So another odd thought. Why not use these now unused nightingale hospitals as isolation hospitals and return as much of the NHS as possible to normal use.
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johnE wrote:
If you fly into the UK from outside the UK then you have to undertake 14 days quarantine
This does not apply if you arrive by boat, train or car.
I believe that the government confirmed after BoJo's address that it would apply to all arrivals regardless of the port of entry, except for whatever exceptions are made for arrivals form France and Ireland.
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Off-topic alert!
johnE wrote:
... The UK police used to have a very nice part of their web site where you could enter your postcode and it would didplay a map showing all the crimes reported in your vicinity, including what type of crime it was. I used to find this very reassuring (muggings were actually so rare I it had no effect on my behaviour). This application is no longer available, ...

Yes it is. https://www.police.uk/
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@ecureuil, Thanks - it's back. It was off line last week. This is not quite what I wanted but it is a step in right direction.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/#category=ltlas&map=rate
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BobinCH wrote:
Why is France considered safer than Switzerland, Austria, Italy, Spain etc?


I wondered that as it clearly isn’t compared to Austria or Switzerland. Maybe they only want bilateral agreements and Austria and Switzerland have declined?
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@Gämsbock, I think it might be that – bilateral agreements. Austria are currently trying to negotiate with the Germans to open that border, but it doesn't benefit Germany that much so they're not especially willing. An agreement with the UK is right out!
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johnE wrote:
So another odd thought. Why not use these now unused nightingale hospitals as isolation hospitals and return as much of the NHS as possible to normal use.


Because they are still configured and available as COVID hospitals, to be triggered at very short notice (<72hrs). They don't want to have to ship out a pile of isolation patients to somewhere else if it kicks off again, deep clean the whole place etc.

Now, all those redundant Travelodges, maybe that would work...
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Scarlet wrote:
@Gämsbock, I think it might be that – bilateral agreements. Austria are currently trying to negotiate with the Germans to open that border, but it doesn't benefit Germany that much so they're not especially willing. An agreement with the UK is right out!


Wouldn’t it make more sense to have a Schengen area agreement? Half the flights to/from the French Alps go via Geneva. How’s that going to work?
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@snowdave, I meant isolate the patients with Covid-19. That is what they were designed for.

They would have to ship a lot of specialist material such as ventilators into each travel lodge and add staffing, catering etc. No it wouldn't work
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johnE wrote:
@snowdave, I meant isolate the patients with Covid-19. That is what they were designed for.

They would have to ship a lot of specialist material such as ventilators into each travel lodge and add staffing, catering etc. No it wouldn't work


Sorry, I thought your flow of comments about quarantine and isolation followed each other, I didn't realise there were so many independent themes.

I realise it wouldn't be ideal to use specialist equipment in hotels, I was suggesting them as isolation/quarantine locations (as is being done elsewhere in the world), not treatment locations. Hotels are poor treatment locations for many reasons - private rooms are much more labour intensive to deal with than wards, carpets are nasty things, and you can't wheel a bed through the doors.

The plans for things getting worse involved a lot of further staff reallocation from where we are today - e.g. I'm not sure there would have been much of a primary care system left - in order to staff the Nightingales in addition to the rest of the secondary care system. The problem becomes staffing, and in particular, skilled staffing. You can't magic up a bunch more staff to run the Nightingales and _also_ all the stuff that was already underway.
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Quote:

I believe that the government confirmed after BoJo's address that it would apply to all arrivals regardless of the port of entry, except for whatever exceptions are made for arrivals form France and Ireland.

So the prime minister is not part of the government. This was the quote “To prevent reinfection from abroad, I am serving notice that it will soon be the time – with transmission significantly lower – to impose quarantine on people coming into this country by air.”
His full speech can be found here https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/tv/news/coronavirus-matt-lucas-boris-johnson-lockdown-speech-video-a9507856.html
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