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Thought experiment -- Will you go skiing if...

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
...there isn't a lockdown order, and you're able to reach some snow (and hypothetically speak, lifts running)

Also,

a) Knowing the virus is around so you may potentially get it.

b) Knowing there may or may not be sufficient medical facility depending on when and where you fall sick

c) Knowing if you have any "at risk" person in your home, they may not make it alive if they catch it


I found myself contemplating that possibility as recent as last weekend. I'm able to drive 4-5 hours to snow that I can cross country ski on. I could theoretically avoid contact with anyone. Would only need to stop to refuel my car (even that, I could do near home, there's sufficient range in my car to do the round trip without refueling)

I did not go. Because it felt sooo wrong. But I'm still struggling with the logical justification.

Would you go?
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
OnlY if you think the rules apply to everyone else, and not you.

Stay at home.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
telford_mike wrote:
OnlY if you think the rules apply to everyone else, and not you.

Stay at home.

You missed the part of "if there isn't a lockdown order".
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abc wrote:
...there isn't a lockdown order,

Would you go?


yes of course, why wouldn't I?

I wouldn't drive 5 hours though. My limit is around 30 minutes.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
I don't care much for your point c) bit of cognitive dissonance going on there with your thought experiment.

Otherwise, yeah, I'd go.
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abc wrote:
telford_mike wrote:
OnlY if you think the rules apply to everyone else, and not you.

Stay at home.

You missed the part of "if there isn't a lockdown order".


Makes no difference. You know staying home is the right thing to do, or you wouldn’t be asking.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@telford_mike, Well, that's sort of pushing it to the other extreme. As a thought experiment, I could stay at home forever because I might get run over by a bus. Or catch malaria on a tropical holiday. Or catch Lyme disease from a hill walk in the Lake District.
ski holidays
 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Avoid trams, bubbles, funiculars, chairlifts, T-bars, pubs, clubs and restaurants for the next 18 months.

Find a resort with button lifts.

Wear disposable gloves on every ride up the hill.
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Bodeswell wrote:
@telford_mike, Well, that's sort of pushing it to the other extreme. As a thought experiment, I could stay at home forever because I might get run over by a bus. Or catch malaria on a tropical holiday. Or catch Lyme disease from a hill walk in the Lake District.


All true, but the problem with this this absolute git of a virus is that you don't know you have it until/unless you present with symptoms. By then you can have infected dozens of vulnerable folks.

5 hours drive is nuts. Sure, go for a local hike, but otherwise stay at home.
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 Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
@Whitegold, speaking of lyme disease, you've become a bit of a tick lately. Must be touching a nerve.
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 snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
telford_mike wrote:

5 hours drive is nuts. Sure, go for a local hike, but otherwise stay at home.

Nuts by whose definition?

Around here, people routinely do that.

Access to many mountains are on windy roads, often in poor surface condition. So 5 hours don't go very far (that's how I can drive 10 hr round trip without refueling)

telford_mike wrote:

Bodeswell wrote:
@telford_mike, Well, that's sort of pushing it to the other extreme. As a thought experiment, I could stay at home forever because I might get run over by a bus. Or catch malaria on a tropical holiday. Or catch Lyme disease from a hill walk in the Lake District.


All true, but the problem with this this absolute git of a virus is that you don't know you have it until/unless you present with symptoms. By then you can have infected dozens of vulnerable folks.

Did you also miss the part that it's possible to NOT have any contact with other during the entire trip?
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
abc wrote:
telford_mike wrote:

5 hours drive is nuts. Sure, go for a local hike, but otherwise stay at home.

Nuts by whose definition?

Around here, people routinely do that.

Access to many mountains are on windy roads, often in poor surface condition. So 5 hours don't go very far (that's how I can drive 10 hr round trip without refueling)

telford_mike wrote:

Bodeswell wrote:
@telford_mike, Well, that's sort of pushing it to the other extreme. As a thought experiment, I could stay at home forever because I might get run over by a bus. Or catch malaria on a tropical holiday. Or catch Lyme disease from a hill walk in the Lake District.


All true, but the problem with this this absolute git of a virus is that you don't know you have it until/unless you present with symptoms. By then you can have infected dozens of vulnerable folks.

Did you also miss the part that it's possible to NOT have any contact with other during the entire trip?


Only if you are the only person to have that thought. In the U.K. tourist spots have been inundated with visitors who thought they’d be the only people there. Once again, if you have to ask, why?
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@abc, you contemplated it last weekend. I was upset two and a half weeks ago that my trip to arabba was cancelled. I was also upset two weeks ago that my alternative destination of kitzbuhel was also cancelled.
Now, two weeks later, these missed ski trips don’t even register. 500/day are dying in the U.K., we are getting accustomed to lockdown, most businesses are in limbo, supermarket checkout staff are protected by plastic screens, doctors are dying, the streets are dystopian.
It is obvious by your question that what is happening here hasn’t really sunk in over the pond yet.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
dode wrote:
@abc, you contemplated it last weekend. I was upset two and a half weeks ago that my trip to arabba was cancelled. I was also upset two weeks ago that my alternative destination of kitzbuhel was also cancelled.
Now, two weeks later, these missed ski trips don’t even register. 500/day are dying in the U.K., we are getting accustomed to lockdown, most businesses are in limbo, supermarket checkout staff are protected by plastic screens, doctors are dying, the streets are dystopian.
It is obvious by your question that what is happening here hasn’t really sunk in over the pond yet.


Yup, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52144390

It’s happening, despite what Trump might say.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Wouldn't go right now as respecting the lockdown. But for the hypothetical question:

A - I'm not particularly worried about contracting it myself.
B - I've spent plenty of time in places with woefully inadequate medical facilities, so would be hypocritical of me to now start worrying. I would be more concerned about injuring myself and taking emergency services/beds/staff away from others that need it more right now.
C - wouldn't be willing to take that risk.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
dode wrote:
@abc, you contemplated it last weekend. I was upset two and a half weeks ago that my trip to arabba was cancelled. I was also upset two weeks ago that my alternative destination of kitzbuhel was also cancelled.
Now, two weeks later, these missed ski trips don’t even register. 500/day are dying in the U.K., we are getting accustomed to lockdown, most businesses are in limbo, supermarket checkout staff are protected by plastic screens, doctors are dying, the streets are dystopian.
It is obvious by your question that what is happening here hasn’t really sunk in over the pond yet.

You jump to judgment with it going through you brain!

I have family in China. It sunk in long before YOU even heard about it!

I’m not as blind as you’re to just follow where the masses are heading without a thought
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
boarder2020 wrote:
Wouldn't go right now as respecting the lockdown. But for the hypothetical question:

A - I'm not particularly worried about contracting it myself.
B - I've spent plenty of time in places with woefully inadequate medical facilities, so would be hypocritical of me to now start worrying. I would be more concerned about injuring myself and taking emergency services/beds/staff away from others that need it more right now.
C - wouldn't be willing to take that risk.

Shock that our thought process are nearly identical!

(given how we disagree so much in other threads)

“C” was the real reason I didn’t go. But I didn’t put that answer out in the 1st post, so as not to discourage the thought experiment.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Its giving it to someone else which worries me, if you could tell me with 100% certainty that I wouldn't come into contact then I'd consider it....but with how contagious this crap is I'm not yet at the stage where I feel the need to take those kind of risks.
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This is a real and possible scenario in Sweden right now, as cross country tracks are maintained (and ski touring is always possible).

I would only go if I could have zero contact with anyone in the region you are going to. I wouldn’t want to be responsible to spread more cases of the virus to a lesser populated (and lesser equipped) regions of the country.

In theory you could winter camp and buy all stuff before in your area - fill up the car, load it with all required food and stuff. Hike straight from the car or camp nearby, no stops to get coffee, toilet breaks in the nature, take all rubbish back with you etc.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Did consider going ski touring at the end of march here in Austria with friends but didn't want to risk putting any additional pressure on the emergency services or getting fined by the the Austrian authorities.
If this Corona thing was to blow over very quickly (highly unlikely) there is a chance that end of season ski touring could be possible.
To be honest though we are expecting 20 Deg C plus and sunny days next week, mountain biking is banned but will probably get the road bike out. Might risk an easy mountain bike tour, was out walking last week and there were enough mountain bikers out and about.
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@Themasterpiece, ah, of course it is! Hmm, would I, if in Sweden? If the trails were close enough to civilisation that if I sprained/broke something by accident (hey, XC can be dangerous) I could self rescue, and I was reasonably sure I was going to be no more in contact than I am running around Cham yesterday, today, tomorrow, then sure, I would.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
A couple of people defied the lockdown in Austria last week, and then needed rescuing from an avalanche rolling eyes From my flat, you can see skin tracks and turns on the mountain opposite, so people are definitely sneaking out, even though the fines can get quite big.

That said, I would be quite happy to do lower risk activities like easy biking or hiking on the roads/fire tracks (not high mountain paths which can be a bit sketchy sometimes or downhill trails). The two types of path are marked differently on maps, so it's easy to plan a route than avoids trickier sections. But we're not even allowed to do that.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@telford_mike, is cycling ok for you?

Same here as @Scarlet, mentions, I can see one person who is obviously skinning up in the forest so he can't be seen, and then getting his timing right circa lunchtime he's laying a sweet trail down the piste, and then heads off to his home which I reckon is on the piste so he's not walking far with his gear, and his chances of getting nicked are minimal.

We did say if we lived on the other side (N Facing) and could get into the forest with a 2min walk we'd probably do the same (skin up ski down the piste) and take a chance.

It really is frustrating to see the spring snow all around us and still so easily accessible and since the containment touring conditions have been perfect.

I can't see the ban being lifted even by end of April.

And yes without a ban in place we'd be out there like we usually do / are.

We can't even cycle which is really frustrating seeing the nigh on empty roads, plus we're only allowed one km from home.

So we do break the rules by hiking at the back of us on the paths and fire trails going out for a couple of hours (max allowed is one hour) and we probably stray 2.5 km max from home, but we're keeping a low profile (hidden in the forest) and keeping away from people, that said we're not the only ones doing it.

This is the temptation in front of us, with the snow transforming day to day the main piste every morning looks like it's been pisted Sad

So if you live in the village bottom right you can sneak into the forest real easily whilst for us that is nigh on a km away.

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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
As an aside back in the UK similar debate going on about KiteSurfing which is way more dangerous than skiing.

This is from the governing body, but it is only "advice"

We thought it would be useful to circulate some generic information from us the National Governing
body in the UK for Kitesurfing and kitesports regarding activities during the current COVID 19
pandemic.

• All our recognised schools nationwide are closed and no practical lessons are taking place.
• All events nationally are currently on hold, postponed or cancelled until further notice.
• All face to face coaching and training courses are cancelled until further notice.
• Advice to our entire membership of kitesurfers across the UK is:
‘Please Don’t go kitesurfing’ at the moment

We are aware that a tiny percentage of our membership is lucky enough to live on, or within walking distance of a local kitesurfing beach or other local spot for their kite sport activities (lucky folk).

However our advice (which is just that…advice) to all our members and all kitesurfers nationally, is to
please refrain from kitesurfing during this period of government "lock down".

We know from rare tragic events, our sport bears a risk of accidental injury or worse.

Enjoy a walk, a run, a cycle.
It will be windy when this is over.

Stay home, protect the NHS, save lives.

This advice is supported and reiterated by all 26 BKSA affiliated clubs
For and on Behalf of the BKSA and its Affiliated clubs
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telford_mike wrote:
All true, but the problem with this this absolute git of a virus is that you don't know you have it until/unless you present with symptoms. By then you can have infected dozens of vulnerable folks.
A number of medics that I've heard over the last few weeks say that this virus is with us for ever. They say we won't eradicate it, and every winter there will be in increase in cases just like there is with seasonal flu (which kills as many as 600,000 people each year). We can't lock ourselves away for ever, so just like we do with seasonal flu we are going to have to get accustomed to a level of risk about this coronavirus.

If there isn't a government mandated/advised lockdown I will have to and want to go about my life (which will be the whole point of lifting the lockdown).
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Weathercam wrote:
@telford_mike, is cycling ok for you?


Yes we can cycle here in CH without restrictions, ditto hiking, but the group size limit (max 5) applies to any activity. It sounds like you guys have a much stricter (probably more effective) regime, but it must be doing your heads in by now. To be honest, our village is so small the group size limit isn’t really an issue - if you want a gathering of more than 5 you'd have to send invitations!

Our neighbours, who live in Neuchâtel turned up yesterday. They're doing exactly what the government is telling people not to do - decamping to their holiday home to ride it out. Can't say I blame them to be honest, it's perfectly understandable.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Quote:

we won't eradicate it, and every winter there will be in increase in cases just like there is with seasonal flu


I can't see how any other outcome is possible. For winter 21-22 if there's a vaccine, it will become simply another version of flu, perhaps requiring a combo vaccine if "vulnerable".
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Absolutely agreed rob@rar. There are lots of risks in life which one has to manage. The only thing with this one is the potential effect on others and therefore one should self isolate if one has been in a high risk area. Even coming back from South Spain 2 1/2 weeks ago and no cases within 10 miles of where I was I self isolated for 2 weeks.

Anyway I suspect people without an antigen certificate will be banned from travel and a lot else in due course. As a friend remarked we will probably then be having coronaparties....
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
under a new name wrote:
Quote:

we won't eradicate it, and every winter there will be in increase in cases just like there is with seasonal flu


I can't see how any other outcome is possible. For winter 21-22 if there's a vaccine, it will become simply another version of flu, perhaps requiring a combo vaccine if "vulnerable".
I think the transmission rate is higher than seasonal flu? In which case vaccination would need to be higher than the numbers who receive the flu jab to achieve the level of immunity they'll aim for.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
countryman wrote:
Anyway I suspect people without an antigen certificate will be banned from travel and a lot else in due course. As a friend remarked we will probably then be having coronaparties....
If there is more and more talk of an antigen certificate I think it will be impossible for the government to maintain the lockdown. There's no doubt that younger people and those without health complications will be prepared to risk getting infected, in the hope of mild symptoms only then early in line for an antigen certificate. If the government wants to maintain the lockdown over any length of time they will have to tamp down any talk of immunity certificates immediately.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@Weathercam, the British Horse Society have sent round advice basically saying people shouldn't really be riding to avoid unnecessary pressure on the NHS. My girlfriend rides and also teaches for a living, so not only is she finding it very tough financially but also frustrating. I guess it's similar to you with the empty pistes, she has to go and exercise the horses and stop herself from riding.

For much the same reason I'm not going out on my mountain bike. I know that I won't enjoy it if I can't take what I'd normally say are calculated risks (I fall quite rarely and have only suffered any injury twice in 5 years, and those were a case of a bit of antiseptic and a plaster), so I'd rather stay at home.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@rob@rar, Yes, I thought Matt Hancock looked rather too pleased at the prospect of getting a certificate himself.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
rob@rar wrote:
under a new name wrote:
Quote:

we won't eradicate it, and every winter there will be in increase in cases just like there is with seasonal flu


I can't see how any other outcome is possible. For winter 21-22 if there's a vaccine, it will become simply another version of flu, perhaps requiring a combo vaccine if "vulnerable".
I think the transmission rate is higher than seasonal flu? In which case vaccination would need to be higher than the numbers who receive the flu jab to achieve the level of immunity they'll aim for.


But if the transmission rate is higher than flu then it's doing a pretty poor job of spreading around. Between November and January, pretty well 2/3 of my acquaintances had some form of nasty cold and flu. Between Feb and April fools day however, the only people I know that have tested positive for corona are Tom Hanks, Charles, Boris and 2 MPs.

On the bright side if we lock down until Christmas there's a good chance we'll come out to a triple whammy of flu, colds and covi-19. Result
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rob@rar wrote:
I think the transmission rate is higher than seasonal flu? In which case vaccination would need to be higher than the numbers who receive the flu jab to achieve the level of immunity they'll aim for.


I wasn't really thinking about herd immunity, just vaccination of those cohorts known to be vulnerable. I'm asthmatic and it's recommended that I have the flu vax, but I don't bother and haven't had flu in 25 years. (I know, not significant).

If SARS2 becomes a regular feature, I would probs have the vax, as I am not getting younger and the risk/cost equilibrium is a bit different from regular 'flu. If it was a combo, sure, that would be fine too.

But your point, my reading is that median R for 'flu is around 1.3, for SARS2 is ~2.5-3. Attack rate 'flu 10% SARS2 ~25%. So, as of now, SARS2 is a lot more transmissible.

So you are quite right that any herd immunity would require significantly higher vax rates.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Bodeswell wrote:
But if the transmission rate is higher than flu then it's doing a pretty poor job of spreading around. Between November and January, pretty well 2/3 of my acquaintances had some form of nasty cold and flu.
Real flu or Man Flu? AIUI, the virus which causes Covid-19 has a higher reproductive number (Edit: as shown in the previous post by under a new name) than seasonal flu as result of infected individuals passing it on to to a higher number of people than transmission of seasonal flu. So you need a higher proportion of immunity in the population if you are to stop a runaway outbreak. Neither Covid nor influenza is as infectious as the common cold, which is why a larger number of your mates have been infected by that.
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rob@rar wrote:
Bodeswell wrote:
But if the transmission rate is higher than flu then it's doing a pretty poor job of spreading around. Between November and January, pretty well 2/3 of my acquaintances had some form of nasty cold and flu.
Real flu or Man Flu?

Colds that resulted in fever and a persistent cough, that took weeks to clear. It also included a fair number of female acquaintances. Many of them also had it in early March.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Quote:

pretty well 2/3 of my acquaintances had some form of nasty cold and flu


At least partially because cold and flu viruses are chronically present in our society. They are not new viruses that have not been seen before and are (probably) spreading "outwards" from a point source.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
under a new name wrote:
Quote:

pretty well 2/3 of my acquaintances had some form of nasty cold and flu


At least partially because cold and flu viruses are chronically present in our society. They are not new viruses that have not been seen before and are (probably) spreading "outwards" from a point source.

Correct, so we can in theory go into a never ending cycle of lockdown, self-isolation, social distancing and mask wearing because, really if covid-19 results in anything from asymptomatic to dropping dead on the street, then how can we be sure? I say we take off and nuke the entire site from orbit. It's the only way to be certain.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
@Bodeswell, well, it certainly is a plan Happy
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@under a new name, you could easily had influenza in those 25 years and just not realised:

https://www.nhs.uk/news/medical-practice/three-quarters-of-people-with-flu-have-no-symptoms/

@rob@rar, The same applies to your manflu comment (although I do think that manflu is a ridiculous and pathetic term), influenza isn't necessarily serious and could easily be indistinguishable from a common cold
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