 Poster: A snowHead
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| pam w wrote: |
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no one is stopping strangers sharing your gondola and standing 20cm away. Just now I had someone sit next to me on a long slow chair and cough all the way.
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Yebbut. Nobody is stopping strangers sharing your carriage on the underground or standing next to you in the checkout queue in Tesco coughing over your fruit and veg. As time goes on there is some homogenising of risk, isn't there? |
Agree with pam here. Out yesterday via bus to shops, travel cards contact (unless you are very precise and hover) hand rails on bus, touch screens in two banks, proximity in ques etc. Why don't London travel cards work like ski lift types? Just leave in pockets.
Even parcel delivery, post etc all handled. How far can you eliminate?
The risks I percieve are just not lower staying here in London.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Mike Pow wrote: |
| Handy Turnip wrote: |
| young_bairn wrote: |
A sensible step would be to close the big cable cars? |
Or just restrict the numbers allowed in them surely? |
Tram at Jackson Hole, Wyoming has closed. |
@Mike Pow, they haven't shut it, it's just been restricted to JHMR employees and Grand Season pass holders only
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| rob@rar wrote: |
| kitenski wrote: |
I missed the discussion, what thread was it on? I've been self isolating in the Highlands  |
Honestly, I can't remember, the threads move fast and have been flourishing of late. Much like the virus itself.
| kitenski wrote: |
His "about" is interesting without much detail!
2 MSc in Engineering. Stanford MBA. Ex-Consultant. Creator of viral applications with >20M users. Currently leading a billion-dollar business @ Course Hero |
That what was discussed. It's an interesting article, but questions about its provenance. |
I posted it on the “main”coronavirus thread originally.
Whilst I can’t speak for the authors provenance, as I indicated previously, he sources all his data and makes his model and analytics available for anyone to inspect so if you disagree with his conclusions, it’s possible to see where your/his assumptions vary. There was a lot of debate on the other thread about proper source data and explaining your position, which this author does extremely well. If anyone disagrees with his conclusions, I’d love to know which specific assumptions or analysis you think is wrong, and the impact on the model.
If you don’t disagree with his analysis, then you’re probably already reducing your general contact levels. I am.
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Not sure if you are healthy there is any point taking too many precautions, at least 80 % need to catch this virus to build up herd Immunity, its not going away, it's not possible to stop it, we have to live with it and those of us who are fit and well have very little risk, the more of us that get it the less risk there is to those who are at risk
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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pam w wrote:
Quote:
no one is stopping strangers sharing your gondola and standing 20cm away. Just now I had someone sit next to me on a long slow chair and cough all the way.
Yebbut. Nobody is stopping strangers sharing your carriage on the underground or standing next to you in the checkout queue in Tesco coughing over your fruit and veg. As time goes on there is some homogenising of risk, isn't there?
Agree with pam here. Out yesterday via bus to shops, travel cards contact (unless you are very precise and hover) hand rails on bus, touch screens in two banks, proximity in ques etc. Why don't London travel cards work like ski lift types? Just leave in pockets.
Even parcel delivery, post etc all handled. How far can you eliminate?
The risks I percieve are just not lower staying here in London.
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Yes but therein lies some of the issues, it is pretty much down to each individual to be sensible and do there best not to transmit, etc. It might be controversial but in my view, this is far more likely to happen at home than in a ski resort where everyone is a bit more relaxed due to holiday moods. Also, you tend to be among strangers so again maybe do not have as much empathy towards them as you might friends/family/work colleagues. You are also clocking up much more distance in a ski resort with hundreds of different touchpoints and chances to meet a multitude of different people from a multitude of different jurisdictions.
So I don't buy the view that you are just as safe away skiing as at home. It's a horrible and unprecedented situation and I just hope that all the businesses and people affected by this can weather the storm.
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@robs1, There's plenty of point in taking precautions regardless of your age and health. The whole point of the current government policy is to slow the spread and reduce the peak pressure on the NHS, hopefully avoiding the collapse in healthcare seen in Lombardy. Honestly the keep calm and just carry on as normal mentality is selfish in the extreme and if widespread will lead to many more of us than necessary losing our parents and family or friends with existing health problems.
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Agreed - maybe it is just me but I feel the French government / resorts are being irresponsible remaining open.
I will miss out on 2 planned trips (next week and Easter).
The only reason for staying open is to try and avoid the financial consequences that early closure for the season will create.
Unfortunately, for local business owners, the health of the populous should be placed ahead of this and allowing unrestricted travel can only add to the problem.
As much as I want to go skiing and ,as much as I would like my business to continue running as normal
, we have to accept what is best for the population as a whole.
This Virus will be much more prevalent in the population than testing/figures suggest
Many will have mild symptoms of a common cold and some will have no symptoms but they will still be spreading it.
The health service will not be able to cope with a large number of people who require hospital admission and intensive care.
As a surgeon friend of mine said , although the mortality rate is low in percentage term 2% of a lot of people is a very large number.
Best to do everything possible to mitigate the spread and rate of spread to allow the health services to cope and I believe individuals have a moral responsibility to help that effort.
I will likely lose a few thousand pounds if I can’t claim on insurance but so be it.
Most of us who are fortunate to be able to afford to take skiing holidays are able to suck up the one off financial loss however much we would rather not.
Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Sun 15-03-20 1:24; edited 1 time in total
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| Sailbad the Sinner wrote: |
| @robs1, There's plenty of point in taking precautions regardless of your age and health. The whole point of the current government policy is to slow the spread and reduce the peak pressure on the NHS, hopefully avoiding the collapse in healthcare seen in Lombardy. Honestly the keep calm and just carry on as normal mentality is selfish in the extreme and if widespread will lead to many more of us than necessary losing our parents and family or friends with existing health problems. |
While I agree in many ways if too many of us take too many precautions then the spread will be too slow and restrictions will have to last too long into winter which with normal winter bugs will cause even more problems, the strategy is to get herd immunity before next winter, then the older ones among us stand a chance, if I catch it and keep away from most people I will be helping others, I didnt mean to imply that I would just spread it willy nilly while I have it
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Best to do everything possible to mitigate the spread and rate of spread to allow the health services to cope and I believe individuals have a moral responsibility to help that effort.
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I would agree with that. But just HOW to do so, rationally, isn't easy. How are your family modifying their behaviour, @bobhitch?
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Quite a lot of ski bags at EDI - I wonder how many will get a slide or otherwise. It does make me think that if resorts are to cancel they should do it before the sat changeover. Or is it a plan to get the hotels/chalets paid and one more week of hotel at least income before bowing to pressure.
Almost like I felt the Wales rugby game was yesterday - cancelling last minute after all the Scots travelled and checked in.
Who knows!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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There's definitely a case in Serre Che and other resorts where they (Lifts Co's & Resorts) are putting the economy over health.
Consider the likes of Club Med which is still open in numerous French resorts, think it's over a 1,000 beds in Serre Che, that breaks quite a few rules?
UCPCA as well has large numbers, no where near as big as Club Med.
Up the hill was busy, people are here from all over the South and other regions this weekend, even though the big event with 2,000 entries was cancelled that hasn't stopped people coming here as they have accommodation booked.
After coming back down bumped into Davina who runs one of the big ski school's here and there are various meetings about imposing restrictions, such as, closing two sectors down, but that's purely economic from the lift co's perspective as you'll be cramming everyone else into the remaining sectors 
Also the economic case for restos, we were also speaking to a friend who works at one of the big restos up the hill, if they have to close she will still be paid to the end of her contract, April 20th and that's a huge impact for the owner who will have severe cash flow issues etc
You could run lifts here, only chairs and drags, close bar & restos let people stay in apartments etc and close the big hotels down but that will simply not happen it's either all open or forced closure by the Prefectures/Maries.
Apart from all the above was quite a nice ski 
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Another problem is if the lifties have to Arrête de travaille' to look after their children there will be less of them to operate the lifts.
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So I don't buy the view that you are just as safe away skiing as at home. It's a horrible and unprecedented situation and I just hope that all the businesses and people affected by this can weather the storm.@davejsy,
I don't feel you've the extent of experience to back that up.
This is in west London, we have 4 schools in immediate vicinity with 1500 pupils each, and practical travel catchment extending wider than any single ski area. Let alone commerce and workplaces. Buses and trains full to capacity mornings and evenings, tube, tram, train and bus transfer hub. There's literally many thousands of transits per hour.
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You know it makes sense.
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@ski3, yes, totally agree with your point, but that begs the question - why hasn't London become an enormous outbreak?
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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| under a new name wrote: |
| but that begs the question - why hasn't London become an enormous outbreak? |
Yes indeed, good question. I was in town a full 3 days this week as were most of the people I interact with. Trains, bars, restaurants, pavements, Thames Clipper - I must have come into contact with many 000s of people one way or another and the same the week before and the week before that. So no symptoms here or among my colleagues and nobody seems to be overly religious about hand washing, avoiding handshakes, touching the face etc. Weirdly, I would always expect a case of heavy man 'flu at some point during the winter but that hasn't happened either. Tourist numbers have seriously dried up - maybe that's it.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| under a new name wrote: |
| @ski3, yes, totally agree with your point, but that begs the question - why hasn't London become an enormous outbreak? |
Yes, admittedly it doesn't make sense when judged by the conventional analytics that are flying about. You'd have thought most big cuties would be sitting ducks by their shear concentration.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You'd have thought most big cuties would be sitting ducks
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Phew - maybe I'm OK then, being skinny and old
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| under a new name wrote: |
| @ski3, yes, totally agree with your point, but that begs the question - why hasn't London become an enormous outbreak? |
Depends where London is on the curve. We'll know better in a couple of weeks how many people are infected today.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| ski3 wrote: |
| under a new name wrote: |
| @ski3, yes, totally agree with your point, but that begs the question - why hasn't London become an enormous outbreak? |
Yes, admittedly it doesn't make sense when judged by the conventional analytics that are flying about. You'd have thought most big cuties would be sitting ducks by their shear concentration. |
Notwithstanding the rather amusing typo I'm puzzled by this too. I certainly feel "at risk" on my ordinary commute, not least because Thameslink serves Gatwick (and Luton at the other end) and hence has rather more international traffic than some. Though obviously the dramatic drop in flying changes much of that. But maybe the working population in central London is younger, more international anyway and hence has hitherto unknown kinds of herd immunity 
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@Sailbad the Sinner, also a good point, but why so far late in the curve... surely loads of Chinese execs hitting London VCs?
I am somewhat confused.
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@under a new name, I've no idea, but as a country we do seem to be lagging behind mainland Europe by a few weeks. Not just execs either, loads off students, pupils at boarding schools and tourists.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@Sailbad the Sinner, oh, yes, indeed. enormous numbers. it is bizarre.
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@under a new name, I read somewhere that Public Health England did a lot of contact tracing and isolating early on. That might have bought some time. Or maybe we've just been lucky.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@under a new name, how do you know that London isnt on the brink of a big outbreak? I hope it isnt but given what has happened elsewhere it must be a possibility. How big or small a possibility no one knows. It seems likely that a significant number perhaps even a majority of cases are not being noticed or detected. No issue for those who then become immune but it does spread the virus much further in society. The UK government's policy is what would have been described as "brave" on Yes Minister. No big deal if it was an economic policy or whatever but when the lives of thousands of elderly people are at stake it is somewhat different. I wouldnt like to be making the decision, whatever you do will be wrong.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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No issue for those who then become immune but it does spread the virus much further in society.
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Absolutely, but so will the people who find they have a fever and a cough and self-isolate. They'll have been contagious for the previous few days. There's really no answer to this, except for those of us who are vulnerable to avoid the obvious sources of infection. And for everyone to wash hands more, not cough into our hands, etc. Insofar as people are doing things to increase social distance (not taking the kids to Tesco, not visiting Grandma, not visiting hospitals) that will also serve to reduce transmission, flatten the curve etc. From reports coming in from all over (e.g. a deserted garden centre) that sort of thing is happening, though it's jolly hard on the affected businesses.
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You know it makes sense.
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To use a skiing analogy (yay!).
The government is trying to get 65m people from the bottom of the piste to the top, as quickly as possible, using a much loved but rather decrepit magic carpet, if too many get on it'll break, if not enough get on it'll take too long.
The government, by closing and opening schools etc, is trying to manage the queue, to ensure that as one gets off another gets on.
Last edited by You know it makes sense. on Sat 14-03-20 15:55; edited 1 time in total
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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The hand hygiene element, if it's effective, certainly appears to be in action on large scale locally if the shelves are valid evidence. All of the supermarkets around here are completely cleared of soap in all it's forms.
We routinely wash on arrival home before doing anything, kids attending school, college, via public transport. Both also have paper delivery rounds.
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Poster: A snowHead
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It feels to me the French resorts are waiting to be told to close and based on how quickly everything is moving that will be on Monday and they will all be closed by next weekend latest.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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A lot of locals, Grenoblois and Lyonnais skiing here today marked by far better than usual skiers. Gondolas capacity limited. Pierre Gross 8 man gondola only allowing 4. Similar limits for Jandri. Efforts at Pano bar to segregate bar and restaurant, probably limiting numbers too no shortage of people arriving.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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I wonder if Macron is adopting the British strategy in more veiled terms. Herd immunity is the only way that this is going to be solved. Burying heads in the sand and clamping down like the Chinese will not work.
Skiers are all quite young a fit. Maybe it has all been calculated?
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@JackSkier, most skiers on here are anything but quite young!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Pays de Seyne : entre virus et neige, les stations du Grand Puy et Montclar ferment (these are small resorts near to Barcelonnette South of Gap Embrun)
Ce samedi 14 mars, Le Grand Puy et Montclar, deux stations de la vallée de la Blanche, ont annoncé leurs fermetures pour diverses raisons, notamment à cause des mesures nationales prises face au coronavirus Covid-19.
Though probably more to do with lack of snow...
And from Le Dauphine - but subscription so can't access it 
Coronavirus : la France sera-t-elle le dernier pays où l’on skie ?
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It is like the Grinch who ate Christmas here. It's almost as if some of you don't even like skiing.
Vive la République, Vive la France et Vive le Ski!
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@davidof, we're quite keen for the station to close, and you can probably guess why.....
Vive la République, Vive la France et Vive le Ski Randonnée 
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when Italy closed its ski resorts they specifically asked ski tourers not to go out as they may then require assistance from the rescue / medical services which were already over stretched.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Weathercam wrote: |
@davidof, we're quite keen for the station to close, and you can probably guess why.....
Vive la République, Vive la France et Vive le Ski Randonnée |
Why not go and ski tour somewhere else? There is nothing worse than plodding around ski resorts on touring skis. Go up to the Lauteret or into the Oisans.
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Back in the studio after a day up Le Tour.
Busy enough and only preventative measures I could see was a spray of something in the access gondola at the top.
Seems the decision lies with local authorities at the moment.
I'm thankful for every day i get out here and keeping the hand sanitizer routine regular.
One thing I noticed is in the piste toilets men are still not washing their hands despite soap being laid out
Drove through cham there and very busy....
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FAQ
