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Ciaramageddon?

 Poster: A snowHead
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We are due to fly out from Gatwick to Friedrichshafen early Sunday morning. Anyone else? I'm wondering if a good supply of books and patience will be needed, or worrying needlessly? que será será I guess
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Should be ok, planes land in wind
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@Markymark29, but there are limits, particularly cross wind. Gusting can also cause problems. Nice short thread on this here.
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Its a bit early to tell, as the airport forecasts are issued every 6 hours for a 24 hour validity (usually). The next ones are out at 1100hrs UTC. As is the tradition on the Tignes thread there will be an in depth look at travel conditions this afternoon. I will need to get my runway direction cheat sheet out. Aircraft do vary in terms of crosswind limitations (even the same types can vary - eg the 757's with winglets), but 35kts across is a working limit that I use. As the worst conditions are going to be around very gusty showers, I can see delays so a good book would be advisable as aircraft hold whilst the showers pass.
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The operation of the airport may also be affected by the broader impact of the storm if for example there are trees down or traffic disruption which make it hard for staff to reach the airport. I’m not saying that will happen, just that the potential for disruption is there.
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@nozawaonsen, Quite so, power supplies also spring to mind!

Additionally, there are also limits for ground operations at airports (though they don't seem to be in the public domain), think steps blowing into aircraft, people being blown off their feet, cargo bins setting off across the tarmac on their own etc. Edinburgh and Glasgow each have a 40% chance of 50 knot gusts late this afternoon - that would bring the airport to a halt for a while
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@chocksaway, I can remember very few days where conditions totally stopped ground operations in the RAF - but on rare occasions they did happen. An awfully long time since that was my concern, but from memory: where possible, aircraft and ground equipment under cover. Large aircraft with no hangar space fully fuelled and turned into wind with intake blanks in place.
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XC weather for my area ( south coast) has wind forecast up to Force 12 tomorrow afternoon. Up from yesterday. That's hurricane force. Shocked
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Markymark29 wrote:
Should be ok, planes land in wind


From a pPrune thread

Quote:
‘Tis certainly the week for bad weather. Rocked into Sydney today finally after a go-around and 55 minutes of holding. Showers were horizontal with only 50km winds. Hardest braking I’ve ever experienced in a heavy in all my years, thought we may end up off the end of the third runway into the bay.
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@achilles, ....it landed.
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In 50 km winds. We get those v frequently - just an ordinary gale.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Here are my thoughts cut and pasted from the Tignes thread:

Okey-dokey, lets start with the roads over here, not busy and black!
For the fliers, over here there shouldn't be any problems, just a small chance of mist at Chambery which will have blown away by the first flights arrival anyway.

Now the UK, this prognosis is based on the 1100UTC forecasts and are only valid until 1200 UTC tomorrow, there are going to be delays and potentially cancellations. BA are already allowing free transfers to today or next week, Easy and jet2 are planning to run a full schedule but warn of delays. There is a lot of science behind this but the wind direction only needs to go up and down by a few knots or change direction by 20 degrees and it can make all the difference. Of course, it is easier at the quieter airports as they can absorb delays as they are not working to capacity Additionally, if the showers are heavy and braking action is less than good for the aircraft than the crosswind limits drop, so no promises but airport by airport here we go:

Birmingham: Looks like being OK for most of the time, but a slim chance of a heavy shower when crosswinds would stop flying.
Bristol: On or close to crosswind limits all morning except in large showers when there will be a wait for them to clear (gusts to 55 knots).
Edinburgh: should be OK (runway into wind) the odd gust may cause excitement as the winds build towards lunchtime.
Gatwick: At or very close to crosswind limits from early doors, getting worse in showers. Delays and cancellations almost inevitable. The wind swings towards the runway direction in the afternoon but 60 kt showers in the gusts would preclude ground handling.
Glasgow: bumpy but flyable until at least lunchtime.
Heathrow: Close to crosswind limits all day, beyond limits in gusts and showers. 65 knots possible in the afternoon. Expect cancellations tonight to facilitate some kind of management of flow. Wouldn't be surprised if its virtually shutdown, they will protect longhaul over shorthaul.
Leeds: Close to limits all day, outside limits in showers, expect delays.
London City: no forecast as its shut till lunchtime. But if its anything like the Heathrow or Gatwick forecast, then little or no chance as all aircraft are limited to a 25 kt crosswind as the runway is narrow.
Luton: Currently some flying will go on. But max gusts in the morning may reach wind limit rather than crosswind limits, delays certainly.
Manchester: Outside any big showers should be just about doable, getting better in the afternoon as the wind swings round from the south towards the runway direction.
Newcastle: Mostly OK outside the big showers.
Stansted: The wind will be down the runway, so OK there. But it may get close to overall limits especially in the afternoon.

Good Luck
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@chocksaway, useful post.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@chocksaway, thanks that’s great. Flight tomorrow is 06:10 from Gatwick so hopefully get away before winds pick up too much
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Doing my Sunday cycle this afternoon due to winds forecast in Leeds up to 50mph tomorrow. We can see the landing lights of the Chevin end of Leeds Bradford airport from our house so will be interesting to see what happens. Coming back from Geneva on Monday we had to do a go around at Leeds due to wind shear and I didn't think it was to bad, shows what I know. First time I've had one of those, nearly wheels down well into the apron then then straight back up. Might be a few of those tomorrow. You can normally tell from the difference from where we in noise if an aircraft does it.
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BA have just started culling flights out of LHR. BA728 to GVA at 1225 and BA564 to Linate at 1025 are 2 relating to skiers.

Edit + BA952 to MUC at 1505 and BA710 to ZRH at 0945
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@stevew, I can see the length of the runway from Whitedot's global HQ window (in front of my desk).

Quite interesting last Thursday when I saw and heard a plane loaded with my wife (amongst others) abort a landing. Apparently according to the pilot 'atmospherics' had meant the plane came in too fast, and he must have lost confidence they could stop before the black stuff ran out.

I watched on a tracker as they then looped under Wakefield and came back to land in the opposite direction (the more normal one from GVA in my experience). The missus said the brakes came on pretty aggressively on that second landing.

Saw an awesome wind shear up close at LBA, a Ryanair that had aborted once already came in, wheels must have been within a metre of the ground if that weren't actually down, then it just skewed onto a diagonal. The pilot gunned it and took back off steeper than I have ever seen a commercial climb. The noise rattled the big picture windows in the lounge where I, most of the other users, and all the staff were all lined up watching after the first abort. The Ryanair then diverted to another airport. Thing is 5 mins later a FlyBe or something (smaller than the Ryanair) landed with zero drama, so what's the big difference?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Its now Gatwick's turn BA2752 to GVA at 1110. If they are starting I would be very close to my phone for EZY flights too. First to the App gets the spare seats!
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@midgetbiker, sounds a bit like, but more dramatic than ours. Are you somewhere on the chevin if you can see the length of the runway? I'm at the bottom end of Carlton Lane in Guiseley.
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On time, no drama
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@On the rocks, nice one....they fly in wind Very Happy
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Flight from VCE to LGW cancelled at 5pm (birthday bash).

Noticed early yesterday so now onthe VCE LHR flight.

Hear the 5pm VCEbLHR flight it also off.
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“Storm Ciara: Tens of thousands of airline passengers hit by cancellations”

https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/storm-ciara-news-latest-updates-flights-cancelled-heathrow-gatwick-british-airways-a9325236.html
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The winds are now picking up, diversions are happening at Luton; its going to be a busy old day for the controllers as they try and find places for people to land. Its going to be a while before it gets better unfortunately.
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Couple of flights have gone out of LBA
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@Markymark29, yes we were lucky to have an early flight before winds picked up
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EasyJet warning they are suffering “significant disruption” as a result of the storm.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
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I just moved my car up the road - not for fear of flooding (I live right by the sea but tidal surge forecast is OK) but because my very wonky loose drainpipe (man supposed to be fixing it...) could blow down on it. It's actually quite hard to walk, right outside my house.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Just seen a crisp packet flying down the road in Norwich
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cameronphillips2000 wrote:
Just seen a crisp packet flying down the road in Norwich


Empty=no news
Full? Now that is impressive. Mind you, they are lighter these days.
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News from VCE desk. They say only two flights out of VCE are cancelled. Both about 5pm
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First ever commercial flight excluding Concorde to do New York to London under 5 hrs
One clocked at 820 mph

Gotta love a tail wind....
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Lots of cancelled flight out of Birmingham airport this morning.
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Flying home tonight from GVA, our flight to Luton is still on at the moment, but friends with us flight to Gatwick is cancelled. Earliest they can get home is Tuesday.
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Mrs A currently sat on train near Crewe, power lines have come down on the train due to the wind. Awaiting trackside evacuation to replacement train when it turns up.
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Pretty bad flooding in parts of Yorkshire.

https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/people/storm-ciara-live-flooding-road-closures-and-weather-incidents-in-yorkshire-1-10246660
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Also...

https://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=151484&highlight=
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Breezy here, but occasional gusts are VERY strong; enough to fell trees I reckon.
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AL9000 wrote:
Breezy here, but occasional gusts are VERY strong; enough to fell trees I reckon.


Gusty here in Northamptonshire, be nice if some trees come down so I can get some more wood in the shed to season/dry. Unfortunately got to go out in it as a fence in one of our paddocks needs attention.
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Quote:

Mrs A currently sat on train near Crewe, power lines have come down on the train due to the wind. Awaiting trackside evacuation to replacement train when it turns up.

not nice. Hope it all goes well.
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