 Poster: A snowHead
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@buchanan101, well there will be less rain in Kitzbuhel because it is further east and the midweek temperatures are plenty cold enough for Kitzbuhel.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@Weathercam my understanding is a "Genoa low" may or may not lead to a retour d'est. Much like it may or may not lead to heavy snow in Italy and Austria. Both cases create a type of "stau" situation with snow piling up against the mountains, a sort of oststau with a retour d'est (assuming an easterly) and sudstau with a classic Genoa Low (creating a southerly flow).
00z GFS op run dropped the idea of a Genoa low on Thursday (though it remains in some of the other ensembles) and is also currently being projected for next weekend. We'll see I guess.
As for your banging pots and pans. It's a fair point you make, but also one that many others on here are well aware of, so no need for quite so much noise early in the morning...
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| @buchanan101, well there will be less rain in Kitzbuhel because it is further east and the midweek temperatures are plenty cold enough for Kitzbuhel. |
Was looking at snow-forecast's interpretation of the temps mid week...
Yes mostly snow for Kitz but lower down looks like being washed out - bergfex has the last of the rain falling with snow line up to 1590m...
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@buchanan101, compacted piste are surprisingly resilient to some rain. It only looks like a short rain event followed by some colder temps midweek so fear not.
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Yep, poured down in Soldeu when I was there, didn't seem to affect the snow conditions at all.
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@buchanan101, I don't think you can describe what snow forecast does as "interpreting" anything......  . That's what forecasters do.
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| leachdc wrote: |
| ^^^^^literally the grim reaper of this thread |
It will be ok in the high resorts, good to excellent even with the 50cm of fresh snow at 2200m+ but the snow will fall with a lot of wind.
Anywhere low, which already has thin cover, it will be bad but with snowmaking next week bigger resorts will be able to keep low runs open for the school holidays.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Quote: |
buchanan101
snowHead
Posts: 218
nozawaonsen wrote:
@buchanan101, well there will be less rain in Kitzbuhel because it is further east and the midweek temperatures are plenty cold enough for Kitzbuhel.
Was looking at snow-forecast's interpretation of the temps mid week..
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I have learned to ignore Snow-report. They are currently showing 119mm of rain into Les gets in the next few days but having followed this thread for many years I know it only takes into account one run out of the many that are available so it doesn't give a balanced view or include the other factors and circumstances which will effect the outcome. I haven't got a clue what it all means but I try to follow the commentary on here to see what the general consensus is of all the runs in a balanced way.
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GFS 06z doesn't change a lot for Sunday but does agree with pulling back snowfall totals on Wednesday/Thursday. Still positive into FI for the Alps though (but maybe still with some up/down temps).
Interesting piece which covers some of my earlier questions here:
http://wepowder.com/forum/topic/222577
Some of the info is more focussed on off-piste but the general theme is a interesting take on the upcoming weather. Nice to see him expressing his opinions rather than sitting on a fence.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@nozawaonsen, I happened to be ski touring today with a very experienced mountain dude, lived all his life here, responsibility for three CAF refuges and a load more experience / qualifications etc etc
We were talking about the potential bad weather (rain and wind) for tomorrow (my excuse for not touring) and then I mentioned the forecast for next weekend and he just shrugged his shoulders, my interpretation of that shrug, either, what will be will be, or what a load of baloney that far out, he didn't even comment or say anything more about the weather after that!
Came across all types of snow pack today, but on the whole was that much colder than of late, hazy cloud and a chill breeze that delayed any real transformation above 2,300.
Nice pretty picture atop the Crête de la Ponsonnière today 2,824m - and you can see how lucky we were with the cloud looking down the valley.
Will put some more pics up in the Serre thread laters
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@Weathercam, I'm really not sure what your point is, but if you aren't interested in the weather you are posting in the wrong thread.
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@nozawaonsen, jeeees do I have to spell it out!
I was surprised that someone like that did not bother to engage on a topic ten days hence when he was happily chatting about tomorrow, doesn't that tell you something!
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You know it makes sense.
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@Weathercam, I've put what I think below, which I've said before.
I wouldn't take a forecast beyond 7 days that seriously.
So looking at the forecast of heavy snow next Sunday/Monday. I would not take it that seriously. I might even shrug. On the other hand I'd be curious about it. That's partly becuase I'm kind of interested in how these things work and sometimes quite surprised about how they can infact give you a good idea of what is likely to happen some way out, even in some cases giving you a broad feel for the likely trends considerably further out than 7 days. Certainly not always. It's kind of like peering into the mist to see what you can see. But that won't be able to give you a detailed sense for what the weather is likely to be in one particular valley a week from now. And as both you and I have said given how a small shift in the position of a weather system can have a massive impact on the ground then one always has to keep in mind that things can change at short notice.
But if I did want to know what the forecast was for tomorrow then I'd look at the local avalanche forecast, not GFS or ECM.
Computer models are good at giving you an idea of what the forecast is likely to be three to five days out (which is actually pretty amazing given the chaotic nature of weather). That said they can still be caught by surprise and accurately predicting precipitation in particular is very difficult. Although sometimes people ask what "locals" think the weather will be like, most (farmers, police, guides) will use the same sort of forecasting tools every else does. Locals don't have a sixth sense that can allow them to know what the weather will be like that others don't have. What they do have built on hard experience is a much better feel for how the weather will affect the local area and how that will change the conditions.
| nozawaonsen wrote: |
Here's something I scribbled down on forecasting at the end of the 2011 season. I thing it still makes broad sense now.
"Looking at shorter term models like GFS etc. Beyond seven days any model is very subject to change. I wouldn't take it that seriously. You might get a trend. GFS provides a longer range, public set of ensembles than other models and these are easier to tie to location than others, but the ease of use does not mean GFS is necessarily a better model than others. To have any confidence in that trend you would want to see it picked up run after run and also joined by other models.
- Closer in GFS and other synoptic models start to be less useful in the 2 to 3 day range. Local variation will start to undermine them beyond the general trend.
- Mesoscale models like WRF may be more useful in the 2-3 day range.
- Right close in, on the day or day before for example, if I needed a good forecast I would almost always choose the local avalanche forecast for accuracy.
- Don't take it that seriously."
To which I'd add that beyond seven days you can't really talk about a forecast, what you have is a range of probabilities, as shown by the different coloured ensembles, which is almost always simply too great a spread to really call a forecast. You can't really make sense of these as a single snapshot. So you need to see how they evolve from run to run to give you a sense of whether certain options are looking more or less likley. |
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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This evening's SLF.
In the afternoon in the regions exposed to heavier precipitation there will be an increase in the avalanche danger to level 4 (high)
http://www.slf.ch/lawinenbulletin/schneedecke_wetter/index_EN
"Weather forecast through Sunday, 31.1.2016
Excluding in the furthermost southern regions, skies will be heavily overcast in all regions of Switzerland. As a result of storm-strength westerly winds, heavy snowfall is anticipated in northern regions and in the Valais. The snowfall level is expected to drop to begin with, as a result of a cold front passing through, subsequently ascending again as a result of a warm front.
Fresh snow
By Sunday evening above approximately 2400 m, the following amounts of fresh fallen snow are anticipated:
- northern sector of the Alpine Ridge, Vaud Alps, Lower Valais, Goms: 40 to 80 cm;
- remaining sectors of the northern flank of the Alps and remaining parts of Upper Valais, Bedretto, northern Grisons, Silvretta, Samnaun: 20 to 40 cm;
- further to the south, less than 20 cm; in the furthermost southern regions it will remain dry.
- In the Jura region, 10 to 20 cm of new fallen snow is anticipated at high altitudes to begin with. However, this snowfall will subsequently be "rained away."
The snowfall level will lie at approximately 1300 m to begin with. During the night it is expected to drop down to low lying areas in eastern regions. Thereafter, it will again ascend until, by evening, it will lie at approximately 2200 m in western regions and 1800 m in eastern regions.
Temperature
At midday at 2000 m, +1 °C in western regions and -1 °C in eastern regions.
Wind
Winds will be westerly, blowing at storm strength. On Sunday afternoon, winds will gradually shift to northwesterly.
Outlook through Tuesday, 2.2.2016
Monday
On Sunday night, the snowfall will gradually slacken off. During the day on Monday, it will swiftly become sunny and winds will slacken off. It will become very warm, the zero-degree level rising to approximately 3800 m. The avalanche situation will remain critical."
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Poster: A snowHead
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It's interesting to look at how the models handled tomorrow's storm.
- GFS first began regularly suggesting unsettled weather around this point on Friday (nine days out).
- It continued to repeat this for the next couple of days.
- By Sunday it was suggesting temperatures would be warm on Sunday.
- By Monday though it flipped to a cooler forecast, but was picking up strong winds.
- By Tuesday it was back to suggesting mild for Sunday/Monday.
- By Wednesday the likely high winds were becoming apparent, along with a high snow line around 2000m, though not the heavy rain/snow.
- By early Thursday morning (three days out) the intensity of the storm was becoming clear as all the models swung into supporting it.
So clearly it was possible to see something some time out, but the detail did not start to sharpern up till three or four days out.
22 Friday
| nozawaonsen wrote: |
18z op has some goodies, but it saves them for FI. If it did play out the first week of February would be a lot more unsettled than the last week if January. But the last few runs haven't seen any consistency of any sort in FI so nothing to get a hold on at this stage.
Next week looks mild and dry on the basis of the op run. |
23 Saturday
| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| @J2R, in the short term (good confidence) relatively mild and dry. In the longer term (less confidence), from February a stronger signal for colder weather and more unsettled (so snowy) weather. But you would want to see that being repeated before you took that all that seriously. |
24 Sunday
| nozawaonsen wrote: |
The next week or so looks generally mild. But GFS continues to suggest the first week of February is likely to be cooler than the last week of January in the Alps and more unsettled at least in the eastern Alps with some fresh snow looking possible on 31 Jan - 01 Feb and 02-03 Feb.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| Followed by more snowfall on Sunday into Monday in the northern Alps (although the snowline doesn't look that low at present). |
25 Jan Monday
| davidof wrote: |
However on the Grenoble resorts thread I advised the poster to go to a resort with tree-lined skiing on Sunday (and to wear a raincoat  so I probably share your brother's concerns as much as you can see that far ahead. |
| nozawaonsen wrote: |
@letsgetpiste, temperatures look quite low as the weather comes in on Sunday. You certainly won't need a raincoat in Val Thorens (or indeed in most places in the Alps) if that is right, though it could be windy.
That said it has been shifting back and forth. |
26 Tuesday
| nozawaonsen wrote: |
Latest GFS is suggesting a relatively high freezing level on Sunday (though that has been flipping back and forth). If the 12z op run were on the money you'd be looking at snow lines up to 2000m, but I would emphasise that the possible snow line and amount is shifting from run to run and this is still Tuesday.
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27 Wednesday
| nozawaonsen wrote: |
Before further light snow on Sunday (snowline up to 2000m more like 1800m in the east).
Overall Sunday doesn't look that nice. There are also some punchy winds being forecast in places which could shut higher lifts. The bars could be fun though! |
28 Thursday
| nozawaonsen wrote: |
The big bad wolf is coming.
Recent runs have increased the strength and intensity of the storm on Sunday. Heavy snow at altitude, heavy rain below particularly in the north and west of the Alps (less in the east and a lot less if any in the south). The snowline will range between 1700 and 2100m a bit lower in the east.
On top of this there look like being extremely strong winds particularly in the north and west, but potentially strong in the south too. |
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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In the spirit of JLOTFW (sorry noz) I can confirm its raining in Chamonix.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@jbob, which was as it turns out foreseeable.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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wet snow here in Plagne 1800
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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MF sums up tomorrow as "grand mauvais temps". Outside my window the old snow is trickling down the guttering and the new snow is trickling out of the sky, blown hither and thither in the freshening breeze.
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| waynos wrote: |
| @buchanan101, compacted piste are surprisingly resilient to some rain. It only looks like a short rain event followed by some colder temps midweek so fear not. |
I guess if the piste is compacted the rain can't "wash away" snow - it can only try to melt it - but given that the rain is barely above 0°C it doesn't have that much energy (as water) to melt snow.
If the rain is 1°C it will need 80kg of it to melt 1kg of snow..
The huge latent energy required to convert ice/snow in to water is what gives us ice chilled drinks, and, basically, any sort of skiing at all.
Water has amazing properties - apart from the obvious life giving ones - we wouldn't be alive if it wasn't densest at 4°C as all the oceans and lakes would freeze from the bottom not the top. Not good for sea life which is where we came from (I do hope there aren't any on here who only believe the earth is 6000 years old...!)
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Now heavy snow here in Plagne 1800, settling on the road - all looking lovely in the evening street lights 
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Val d'Isere tonight. C Bo!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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davidof, who are you kidding that your pic is of Val d'Isere this evening?
Anyone can see its from a christmas card . . . 
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| @jbob, which was as it turns out foreseeable. |
The rain was an hour late!!
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@jbob, how rude.
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You know it makes sense.
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| jbob wrote: |
| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| @jbob, which was as it turns out foreseeable. |
The rain was an hour late!! |
I was thinking the same thing. They said 4pm here but it arrived after 5. Very French.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@pam w, I'm liking hither and thither. Raining here in Les Houches
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Poster: A snowHead
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18z continues to suggest snowfall in the northern Alps Wednesday into Thursday. This doesn't currently look like a very heavy fall (roughly 20-30cm), but it does look like it will fall to low levels.
Further out GFS is still suggesting heavy snow next Sunday into Monday for across the Alps and Pyrenees. This looks like it might arrive in the western Alps slightly mild, but temperatures falling fast as it comes through. Obviously plenty can shift and change on this, but worth keeping an eye on.
FI continues to look unstable with bands of snow approaching the Alps through to the end of the run (Wed/Thurs and Sat/Sun, but it's all FI for now).
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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As widely forecast FL down to the 1400 / 1500 m range in the French NA. Snow down to 1300m overnight - but just a few wet flakes at that level. Elsewhere up to 30cm above 2000 meters (more at altitude) but also a lot of wind that has caused snow transport. A day or two to stay on piste or low angle terrain with no steep slopes above (as at the Clusaz avalanche yesterday).
Note: risk 4 in the Savoies, the Haute-Savoie authorities have warned people to stick to open ski runs. In case you have insurance clauses about off piste.
Last edited by Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person on Sun 31-01-16 8:19; edited 1 time in total
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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I'm in Valmorel at about 1300m and there's about 5-10cm on the cars. Saw a car driving downhill with double that, which can't have come from much higher, so it looks like we're just about on the snow line. Hoping to get a few hours skiing this morning before it turns to rain!
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Wednesday night Thursday morning still looks like bringing fresh snow. Not as much as today (looks like 15-25cm midweek), but crucially to a much lower snow line.
Sunday Monday still looks like bringing heavy snow across the Alps and Pyrenees (freezing levels higher in the latter).
Both events look likely to be accompanied by high winds (perhaps not as strong as today but still with the potential to be disruptive).
Fresh snow and high winds will keep the Avalanche risk elevated for much of the week.
Out in FI? Snow Tuesday 09/Wednesday 10 across the Alps and Pyrenees then again on Saturday 13/Sunday 14 sharing the love. But of course that is way out in FI so I would not take it that seriously.
Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Sun 31-01-16 9:29; edited 2 times in total
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Puking down with snow here at a measly 800m in the Bavarian Voralpen!
Went to bed last night with the pitter-patter of raindrops lulling me to sleep on the Velux above my bed, woke up to that wonderful soft silence a few moments before the bloody snow ploughs set off from the farmyard next door. Snowing hard in the Ski amadé area I've just left as well  Never mind back there on Friday for the weekend, and back for another week on 5th March too
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That's a good prospect for French resorts gearing up for the vital 4 week school holiday period. been snowing all night but it looks soggy and probably turning to rain soon. My local chairlift looks to be closed by wind. The warm sunny days were preferable.
Next avalanche report will be from......?
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@Samerberg Sue, warmer temperatures rising and moving west to east. Not peaking in French Alps till late this afternoon evening. Don't look like reaching Salzburgerland till overnight, but I would still anticipate them coming!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Temps slowly rising here at 1,400m in Serre +2.7 what's strange is wind looks to be coming from the South looking at my normal apartment block heating chimney?
Had slightly more than KenX as we're 150m higher.
Might wrap up back into winter gear (wind chill) and go up the hill later to take a look.
Wind is forecast to be NW'ly 60mph at 3,000m this afternoon
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