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The All New 15/16 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Summer solstice and the road to winter is open!



And El Niño incomming...



What does that mean for Europe? Hmmm. That's less clear. But there is some research to suggest it can increase the possibilty of a -NAO (with the jet stream tracking further south than normal). Winter 2009/10 certainly did and was very cold over much of Europe, but also very dry in the northern Alps. That said it's hard to draw any firm link (and in any case it's far from clear how strong this El Niño will actually become).

Meanwhile Gavin Partridge is musing on indicators which might suggest a +NAO.

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter2015-16-forecast-uk.php

The long and short of it of course is that summer's barely begun and it's far too early to tell...

In the meantime. Some snow around Hintertux glacier early week and albeit a long way off once we've passed the solstice (at 1739 BST) winter is coming...


http://youtube.com/v/3ND4P-gy1PM
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Cheers @nozawaonsen, the countdown begins!

I feel lots of El Niño conversations coming up over the coming weeks and months Smile
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Off to a good start !
http://www.winterhighland.info/publicreports/index.php?50,4155
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Cold weather pushing across Austria today with the snowline dropping towards 1800m in places.

http://m.oe24.at/oesterreich/chronik/LIVE-Ticker-Kaltfront-bringt-Regen-und-Schnee/193463722

But much warmer weather over Europe looks like arriving by the start of July as high pressure builds.
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That warmer than average start to July across much of Europe is still on the cards.

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It's been a cold spring and early summer here in the UK with good snow survival particularly in Scotland. Things have finally warmed up here in North Yorkshire.

Should exceed 30c in London later next week. 25c should feel hot enough here.
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Vague de chaleur : vers des températures exceptionnelles pour un début juillet

http://www.meteofrance.fr/actualites/26373646-vague-de-chaleur-vers-des-temperatures-exceptionnelles-pour-un-debut-juillet

Could see 40C in Rhône-Alpes next week.
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@nozawaonsen, vraiment, c'est caniculaire!

Likely to be hotter in Geneva than in Sicily where I'm going for work.
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At least a week of very warm temperatures coming up across the Alps and much of Europe.
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Well we've had a summer here now at least.
Next week temps are forecast to be max middle teens in the north and west of the UK.
Warmer in the south.
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Peak of the heat is passing in the Alps with the risk of stormy breakdowns over the next few days. ZAMG have urged particular caution on Austrian lakes where squalls and storms are likely to hit bathers and sailors at short noticed and asked people to watch out for the storm warning beacons.
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Geneva hit a record of 39.7C today. Storms following.
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"At this time, the forecaster consensus is in favor of a significant El Niño in excess of +1.5oC in the Niño-3.4 region. Overall, there is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, and around an 80% chance it will last into early spring..."

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Last Wednesday saw the hottest day in Innsbruck since records began in 1877 reaching 38.2C.

http://www.zamg.ac.at/cms/de/klima/news/hitzerekorde-in-innsbruck-und-wien
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Antarctic vortex and thunder snow down under...

http://m.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/antarctic-vortex-blankets-state-in-white-as-ski-resorts-get-dumped-on/story-fni0cx4q-1227438704149
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 Poster: A snowHead
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Chart above shows the evolution of the snowpack during the 14/15 [corrected] season at Weissflujoch near Davos in eastern Switzerland.

- The top (blue) line is the maximun on record.
- The violet (bottom) line is the minimum on record.
- The green is the average.
- The red is last season.

So broadly speaking it wasn't far off the average, albeit a little under.

Data from SLF ( http://www.slf.ch/schneeinfo/wochenbericht/2014-15/0601/index_FR )


Last edited by Poster: A snowHead on Tue 14-07-15 23:38; edited 1 time in total
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nozawaonsen wrote:


Chart above shows the evolution of the snowpack during the 13/14 season at Weissflujoch near Davos in eastern Switzerland.

So broadly speaking it wasn't far off the average, albeit a little under.

Data from SLF (http://www.slf.ch/schneeinfo/wochenbericht/2014-15/0601/index_FR)


Interesting, I wonder if equivalent data is available outside Switzerland.
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Interesting to me as well. If this is the snowpack then presumably it includes the benefit of the snow making.

You say it's for the 13/14 season but it says Winter 2014/15 on the image. So I assume it is for the most recent winter.

It looks about right. What I remember is some early snow then a lack of decent snow into December and too warm for snowmaking. Then it it finally turned colder and resorts cranked up the snowmaking as it turned colder in January to provide a bit of a base.

I can't help wondering what this would have looked like without the snowmaking. I suspect the return to the average snow depth in January/ February might not have happened without it.
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@olderscot, I don't think it includes any artificial snow or snow-making in that specific measuring area:

http://www.slf.ch/ueber/standorte/weissfluhjoch/index_EN
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Looks like you're right. There goes my theory then. Embarassed

Mike
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My fault. That was a typo. Definitely 2014/15 not 13/14, but also artificial snow not an issue.
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@olderscot, Valid point nonetheless as there is inevitably a degree of temperature related correlation between natural snowfall and snowmaking? IE it didn't snow much In Dec 14 nor was it cold enough to make snow. Thus the headlines and panic before Xmas? Also interesting to note that the heaviest falls of the season were all in the meteorological Autumn?

I suppose that chart perfectly sums my memory of last winter as being pretty average snow, adequate but not much more?

I can't be certain but I think 2009/10 was a season where Austria had a lot of early snow followed by relatively little snowfall in the main season but consistently low temperatures which preserved what had fallen well and allowed for plentiful artificial top ups. Also I think this may have been the last season before the restrictions on snowmaking after 1st March were introduced?
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Missus tells me it will be above average temperatures thru' to December this year, the glaciers are suffering more than in 2003.

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Just come back from working in Paris this week and the heat is pretty horrible there. The week before I was in Bordeaux where it has been nudging 40.

But winter will be here soon.
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Crikey had the gas fire on here last night.
Forecast for Córdoba in southern Spain is 42c next week, no doubt locally much hotter. They are forecasting 40c at 8pm Shocked
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Heat taking it's toll on Mont Blanc.

Canicule sur le Toit de l’Europe

http://mobile.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2015/07/19/canicule-sur-le-toit-de-l-europe_4689560_3244.html
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If anyone has watched the golf from St Andrews you will have seen the kind of weather we have been experiencing, add to that they have been forecasting sleet/snow for the top of Cairngorm, think that lovely weather we had in April was our summer.
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Some cooler air about in the coming week which may push down across the Alps towards the end of the month.

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El Nino intensifying, could rival strongest in recorded history (Washington Post).

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/07/20/el-nino-intensifying-could-rival-strongest-in-history/
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ill save everyone else the hassle of asking the eternal unanswerable question.

what does this mean for european snow and temps
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 Poster: A snowHead
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@ewanmalone, There needs to be a stickied post for this answer, which from what I can tell is that nobody knows. The conflicting arguments and theories suggest that some El Nino years are poor snow years whilst others are good. Which is the same as non El Nino years - some are good and some are poor.

One thing we can be sure of though is that Snowheads will muse over El Nino and the amount of snow for at least the next 5 months!
Toofy Grin
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Everything I've read seems to say generally colder but drier, specifically who knows.
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Imagine there will be snow in November that will stick around at higher altitudes only, then some more in December, Jan, Feb, Mar and April by when it will start melting and only be useful at high altitudes going into May.

The first really big dump will be early this year, due to Elle Ningoin, on Friday 4th December. Around 50cm is forecast for the 3Vs.
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AthersT wrote:
@ewanmalone, There needs to be a stickied post for this answer, which from what I can tell is that nobody knows. The conflicting arguments and theories suggest that some El Nino years are poor snow years whilst others are good. Which is the same as non El Nino years - some are good and some are poor.

One thing we can be sure of though is that Snowheads will muse over El Nino and the amount of snow for at least the next 5 months!
Toofy Grin


Can we have a sticky for what it means for Canada Very Happy
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There's various ENSO links worth a read on the first page of last year's thread.

http://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=111231&start=0

Also this from the Met Office.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/el-nino-la-nina/ENSO-impacts

Meanwhile...


http://youtube.com/v/4VKy69sE4VY
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***steps away from the Pacific North West***

That Met Office link is superb for the hard of thinking. Which I personally can vouch for.
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@nozawaonsen, Yes second that re the MetO link. If the Temps verify like the trend this year there could be some squeaky bum times this autumn?
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ZAMG suggesting this could have been the warmest July on record (since 1767), confirmation later today.

http://www.zamg.ac.at/cms/de/klima/news/juli-2015-auf-rekordkurs

Temperatures in the Alps look like heading back above average for the coming week.
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@nozawaonsen, top thread. Glad it has been warm somewhere but it hasn't been in South Wales. Been freezin' all month.
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Yes, should qualify that ZAMG is referring to Austria.

July figures now in for Austria and it was indeed the warmest July on record, 3C above average. 2006 was the previous warmest July, 2.7C above average.

In Klagenfurt, Innsbruck and Linz it wasn't just the warmest July on record, but the warmest month on record.

http://www.zamg.ac.at/cms/de/klima/news/waermster-juli-der-messgeschichte
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