From a post in the sticky on understanding forecasts;
00z - Weather buoy, satellite data, shipping data, country data, NOAA data
06Z - Weather buoy, satellite data, shipping data
12Z - Shipping data, Satellite data ONLY
18Z - Weather buoy, satellite data, shipping data, country data, NOAA data
So would personally expect 00 and 18 to be the most accurate?
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
I'm not completely sure that holds true, certainly happy to be contradicted, but I'd want to get something up to date from GFS on the different sources and what it means for different runs.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Good news part one.
Forecast snowline has dropped a fraction for the Hahnenkamm, so less likelihood of rain at the finish.
Good news part two.
Skiing next week is going to have great visibility. You'll get a tan. You'll look good in shades. You'll party on the terrace. This may even increase the probability that you will pull?
Good news part three.
The Euros now produce a fifty member ensemble run that will in fact show different possibilities for what sort of person you will pull and how likely that is!!! This is based on slightly changing the inputs for each ensemble such as how much wine you have drunk, how much beer they have drunk, whether jäger is involved, tightness of your ski pants, how amped your table dancing is, whether you are wearing a go pro and ice axe in the bar etc.
That's very positive of you Noza! Personally I am just a little concerned about the following week when I am there but then I usually go to the mountains in March so I imagine conditions will probably be similar, I was just hoping to have proper winter conditions for once.
Looking like a dumpage at altitude for Thursday in France but possible rain at mid altitudes.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Heading to Val Thorens next week so I'll be watching closely!
What say ye gods of snow?
After all it is free
After all it is free
davidof wrote:
Looking like a dumpage at altitude for Thursday in France
This works for me...
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
davidof wrote:
Looking like a dumpage at altitude for Thursday in France but possible rain at mid altitudes.
Where are you seeing this please?
I'm using http://www.meteoexploration.com as I like having more simplistic graphs to check (on the ensembles page), is there anything similar that's better then this site but not as advanced as the graphs posted here which don't make a great deal of sense to me?
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Also struggling to see anything other than sun and dryness
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Meteo Chamonix hinting at some weather breaking through the high pressure on Thursday but caveats on reliability.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Minion1980 wrote:
davidof wrote:
Looking like a dumpage at altitude for Thursday in France but possible rain at mid altitudes.
Where are you seeing this please?
Meteo France, hoping for 10 maybe a few more cms (well ok not really a dumpage but not bad for this year), we'll see. Also showing cooler weather and precipitation for Saturday week.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
18z op has some goodies, but it saves them for FI. If it did play out the first week of February would be a lot more unsettled than the last week if January. But the last few runs haven't seen any consistency of any sort in FI so nothing to get a hold on at this stage.
Next week looks mild and dry on the basis of the op run.
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@peanuthead, +1
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@peanuthead, +2, also a little bit of click baiting in progress as well.
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
peanuthead ......do one !!! , why is your opinion more important than weathercam , let people make their observations / remarks , it is an open forum , stop being so precious
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Press the plus next to his name and ignore him. That way we can all just carry on as before.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Latest CFS brings snow to the western alpes in February.
@leachdc, interresting post, must look that up To my mind it would explain some of wild differances we see in the runs on the same day, in that the most promising runs 6z from my perspective do not contain noaa (what ever that means).@nozawaonsen, can you give your incite into this?
"Little wind up there, but I think we'll be able to go!" @erikguay...
Race inspection on now.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
bruisedskier wrote:
Latest CFS brings snow to the western alpes in February.
@leachdc, interresting post, must look that up To my mind it would explain some of wild differances we see in the runs on the same day, in that the most promising runs 6z from my perspective do not contain noaa (what ever that means).@nozawaonsen, can you give your incite into this?
I'm not sure what you mean by latest CFS? But if it's the "daily" CFS I wouldn't take it too seriously.
On the differences between the GFS runs I think in all honesty that it's a little bit of an old wives' tail. I'd weight them pretty equally. There can of course be differences between runs, but it's consistency you are looking for.
@nozawaonsen, yes iit was CFS daily, and I have been warned about that already
IfI I dont like a forecast I go looking for one I do
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Hahnenkamm start pushed back 30 mins till 1215 to allow the weather to clear (which it is due to). They'll take a decision at 1145 (1045 GMT) as to whether the wind has died down enough to allow them to run the race from the top.
This 360 degree video is pretty cool. Doesn't work on all browsers.
18z op has some goodies, but it saves them for FI. If it did play out the first week of February would be a lot more unsettled than the last week if January. But the last few runs haven't seen any consistency of any sort in FI so nothing to get a hold on at this stage.
Next week looks mild and dry on the basis of the op run.
I'll be eagerly hoping for some consistency on this, thanks again for the updates, many of us are glued I am sure.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
They have now gone firm on a 1245 (1145z) start, but still unclear where from as wind is still gusting.
And Vonn looks like she's set another record.
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
things have held up well the last week despite a return to warmer weather. There is about 30cm of fairly compact snow at 1400 m. in the Isere. The off piste is thin in places
we're not expecting much to be left below 1200m by next weekend though unless some relief comes.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
The last two GFS runs have shown a couple of bands of snow heading for the northern Alps on Friday and Sunday. It looks quite light at present.
Next weekend also looks quite snowy in the Scottish mountains (Thursday too, though rainy on Friday).
Glancing further ahead and out into FI the second week of February looks potentially more unsettled (more so in the east) and cooler at time than the last week of January, but that is still a long way out.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
kitenski wrote:
BBC "rest of winter" saying could be good for the Alps. A good watch,. covers, El Nino, NAO, and the Stratosphere!
Thanks kitenski nice little round up of some of the different actors that could play a part over the next few months.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Schladming
Meribel
Nevis Range
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
love the Nevis one. Looks like the work of a GFS madman
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
The forecast for Jasna has changed again (no surprise, I know, these things change all the time). Can someone please help me interpret this?
It's rather wilder looking than previous views I've looked at, so I'm not sure what I can deduce from it (being a complete newbie with this business).
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
pjd wrote:
love the Nevis one. Looks like the work of a GFS madman
Kinda sums up Scottish skiing, can be awesome, but need to seize the (right) day
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@J2R, in the short term (good confidence) relatively mild and dry. In the longer term (less confidence), from February a stronger signal for colder weather and more unsettled (so snowy) weather. But you would want to see that being repeated before you took that all that seriously.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
kitenski wrote:
pjd wrote:
love the Nevis one. Looks like the work of a GFS madman
Kinda sums up Scottish skiing, can be awesome, but need to seize the (right) day
Sums up French skiing. Powder at all levels yesterday, worst crust ever today... thanks to overnight rain to 2300 m then a refreeze.
@J2R, in the short term (good confidence) relatively mild and dry. In the longer term (less confidence), from February a stronger signal for colder weather and more unsettled (so snowy) weather. But you would want to see that being repeated before you took that all that seriously.
Thanks for that. It's flip-flopping backwards and forwards between runs at the moment, so I don't actually take it seriously at all at the moment. Cold and snowy would be good, though...
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Quote:
davidof
snowHead
Posts: 9495
kitenski wrote:
pjd wrote:
Laughing love the Nevis one. Looks like the work of a GFS madman
Kinda sums up Scottish skiing, can be awesome, but need to seize the (right) day
Sums up French skiing. Powder at all levels yesterday, worst crust ever today... thanks to overnight rain to 2300 m then a refreeze
Is that across the whole of the French Alps or just locally?
I'm obviously persona non grata in this thread
But in response to the above, if I'm allowed, bearing in mind I'm out on the hill and have actually been skiing today and the people I'm with are searching out the best conditions................................
We did ski some quite nice powder today in our own little local area (and I'm sure the same is true of others areas) after earning our turns.........
So NE facing slopes above 1850 powder to 20cm, 2200 40cm cold snow, a lot of severe avalanche terrain with many crown fractures present.
Last edited by You'll need to Register first of course. on Sat 23-01-16 23:16; edited 8 times in total
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@Weathercam, you have as much right as anyone.
After all it is free
After all it is free
@jbob, @Weathercam, I agree. I'm hugely grateful to nozawaonsen for the fantastic analysis he brings us every day, and a few pictures and bits of local snow news from different areas across the alps add to this and help us see how the weather is translating to skiing conditions on the ground. Putting the two together gives a better impression (in my humble opinion at least) as to how skiing conditions are likely to change and hence what we're likely to face when we get out there, even though we're all off to different resorts at different times. I think the thread is fantastic because it combines both.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
FAQ
Poster: A snowHead
To my mind it would explain some of wild differances we see in the runs on the same day, in that the most promising runs 6z from my perspective do not contain noaa (what ever that means).
Davidof
