 Poster: A snowHead
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18z continues the 12z GFS theme of a more unsettled look to next next week with potential for snow on Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday in the northern Alps.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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northern 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| 18z continues the 12z GFS theme of a more unsettled look to next next week with potential for snow on Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday in the northern Alps. |
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| Quote: |
Looks like WDC could get 1-3 feet this weekend and get close to all-time records set in the 1920s.
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Just imagine if that were london 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| 18z continues the 12z GFS theme of a more unsettled look to next next week with potential for snow on Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday in the northern Alps. |
Thanks a lot for your replies @nozawaonsen . For the region I had posted earlier (Saanen) the outlook seems a bit confusing now as you stated. Meteociel has already given up on the prospect of snow, Bergfex is running behind schedule and Snowforecast has reverted to rain for the lower altitudes. Depressing
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Anyone got anything to add for Borovets? The snow forecast for next week has changed significantly every day, going from 16cm of snow to bright sunshine and 7 degrees c!? Looks like it's set to warm up there and I'm concerned!
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@Odysseus, you are looking at different sites drawing on the same information updating at different times. This will add to your confusion.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Thanks again @nozawaonsen, that is one issue I wanted to ask. Bergfex take their feed from ZAMG who "claim to" run their own forecast on the raw GFS data, and snowforecast.com claim that they also run their own "snow" models on the GFS data. Meteociel uses GFS as is, for all I know. I gather these statements are not fully true ? (Might be elementary 101 questions, sorry about that)
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@Odysseus, I don't know why they wouldn't be true? Meteociel shows a range of different models (GFS, ECM, UKMO, JMA, GEM etc) as the day comes out. Snowforecast (and most internet forecasts) use GFS as their raw data. They tweak it before it comes out about three hours later. I'd not seen that ZAMG used GFS. ZAMG is the Austrian national weather service. They are part of ECM. Bergfex is a company which uses ZAMG.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@nozawaonsen, Thanks a lot for the explanation! Obviously my mistake about ZAMG using GFS. All the best.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@nozawaonsen, loada SHs travelling to the Dolomites today and tomorrow. Any last minute thoughts for us?
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@Weathercam, as i see it, this thread is for most people to enjoy, learn from and (if they've got the technical understanding, which sadly I don't) engage with @nozawaonsen as he uses his incredible knowledge and expertise,not to mention modesty and humour, to roam around the world. It is not for others to give wordy reports on their own resorts or to describe, at length, their own exploits. There are other threads on which this can be done. I, for one, would be grateful if you could confine your essays to the Serre Chevalier thread.
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You know it makes sense.
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@Hurtle, if you bothered to look the high Iso is for many resorts in France, ADH for instance 3200, Courchevel 3250 and even Tignes !!
And I see that Arabba (Italy) hits 3000 !
So it's not just about here but relevant to many, hence my post!
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| Hurtle wrote: |
| @Weathercam, as i see it, this thread is for most people to enjoy, learn from and (if they've got the technical understanding, which sadly I don't) engage with @nozawaonsen as he uses his incredible knowledge and expertise,not to mention modesty and humour, to roam around the world. It is not for others to give wordy reports on their own resorts or to describe, at length, their own exploits. There are other threads on which this can be done. I, for one, would be grateful if you could confine your essays to the Serre Chevalier thread. |
Hurtle , what's your problem ; Weathercam has posted info relevant to weather and snow conditions . It is very useful to get some local weather observations from Weathercam and others
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Poster: A snowHead
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@dublin2,
| Quote: |
It is very useful to get some local weather observations from Weathercam and others
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I agree and think you miss my point. As in most things, it's a question of balance.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@Weathercam, yep it's definitely looking warm across the Alps next week. The eastern end holds onto the cold a little longer, but by Monday Austria is warming up and by Wednesday Bulgaria.
And that's solid advice about figuring out which slopes face the sun and heading there first. That'll become more important as the season moves on and into spring.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Oh no @nozwaonsen! What will this mean for those of us going to Bulgaria week commencing 1st Feb? :/ really worried about the skiing quality.
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@Seabass90, it should be pleasant. Borovets has has enough snow to cope with a spell of mild weather.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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I mentioned Tristan Gooley and his Natural Navigator work a while back
http://www.naturalnavigator.com
Although far from being Alpine or snow specific there is plenty that is interesting and relevant in what he writes. It's fascinating when you spend time in the mountains to see how the weather shapes the landscape and also how the landscape shapes local weather conditions.
As @Weathercam, points out above the aspect of the slope makes a huge difference as things start to warm up even on piste (and knowing that will help you take advantage of it). As well as for example knowing which areas stay in shadow longer and which are exposed to wind or are on the leeward side. Of course all these things count for much more off piste both in terms of finding quality snow and being safe, but it's fascinating even if you never stray from the piste even more as the seasons shift. And spending time in one place and getting to observe those changes is a real pleasure. Both @Weathercam and @Davidof have been posting some really great photos recently showing examples of all sorts of local effects (inversions, high level winds stripping off snow against a blue sky). Although of course they are specific to where they are they are relevant to wherever you are in the mountains.
In terms of other resources I found Petit Manuel de Meteo de Montagne by Jean-Jacques Thillet a good intro (albeit in French).
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
As Weathercam, points out above the aspect of the slope makes a huge difference as things start to warm up even on piste (and knowing that will help you take advantage of it). |
...and one of the advantages of going back to a resort you know!
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| Hurtle wrote: |
| @nozawaonsen, loada SHs travelling to the Dolomites today and tomorrow. Any last minute thoughts for us? |
Pack shades and sun cream. Should be lovely.
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@nozawaonsen, thanks
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@nozawaonsen, Current runs (Trentino) seem to show very little variation in temperature next week between day and night, the "saw tooth" temperature profile is flattened out. There are low winds and mostly clear skies under a high pressure, I though that that usually led to more variation in temperature. What is holding up the night time temperatures?
I am looking at Wetterzentral graph for 46N 11E
Last edited by You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net. on Fri 22-01-16 13:07; edited 1 time in total
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@Col the Yeti, you can still see it here.
Looks like a little high level cloud about.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Thanks, a little bit of cloud goes a long way obviously
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@kitenski, Please be true  Bored of high pressure being sat over SW Europe - All of December and now another spell.
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You know it makes sense.
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@kitenski, Please be true Bored of high pressure being sat over SW Europe - All of December and now another spell.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@kitenski, Please be true Bored of high pressure being sat over SW Europe - All of December and now another spell.
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Poster: A snowHead
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@kitenski, Thanks for that.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@Col the Yeti, still getting to freezing each night even at 760m. Swing of 10C between night and day time.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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That sounds like you would expect in these conditions, the temp and precip graph from wetterzentrale however has minimal difference and night temps of 5C at 850mbar. Do they smooth out the data compared with the meteogramm?
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@Col the Yeti, I think it's more to do with the 850mbar being air temperature and the meteograms being ground (or rather T2m) temperature. But some one else may have a better idea.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| Hurtle wrote: |
| @nozawaonsen, loada SHs travelling to the Dolomites today and tomorrow. Any last minute thoughts for us? |
Pack shades and sun cream. Should be lovely. |
A few of the GFS runs recently - including the 00z one this morning - had quite a bit of ensemble support for snow on Friday/ Sat (29/30) I noticed. Bergfex was also predicting 5/10cm for Seiseralm on the Friday. More I guess for the Grödnertal. I see though that the 06z run seems to have knocked that in the head and Bergfex has binned it too. I wonder if this will return though
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Goddamnit.
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| Odysseus wrote: |
12z flatlines. all hope lost.  |
Different runs during the day use different input parameters. I'm sorry, I can't remember what, but say 00z will include pressure and wind info from wave buoys, but maybe the later runs don't use this and 'assume' some input data. Each run therefore will have a slightly different slant. I used to think 00 & 06 were cause for optimism, 012 would take away, 18 would give a bit of hope back. Try watching and comparing the days runs with each other over say a week and you might see a bit of a pattern. Mind you I might be taking pants.
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FAQ
. I know that it could easily swing back the other way, though.
