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Pound gaining on the Euro - V slowly

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
rayscoops, I am however interested in it... i have this crappy little app that tracks the euro rate and i always check for shifts when various news stories come out... hoping to see a beer in a French ski resort back under £4! I live in hope! snowHead
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Standee wrote:
Currently at 1.17 with my bank, trigger point for transactions is 1.25, should hit that by Thursday next week.

Maybe not. The UK is already involved in bailing out Ireland. Next in the queue will be Portugal ....
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Noticeable upswing in the last couple of days... £4 beer, here I come!
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MoodyFFS wrote:
Noticeable upswing in the last couple of days... £4 beer, here I come!


I just had to check the pound hadn't divebombed, £4 beer is not something to be celebrating Toofy Grin
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andytb, seriously it was €6 for a pint (not even a proper pint) in Morzine last year.... Sad
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My broker is still recommending hedging Euro buys over the next few months. Confused
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What are your thoughts as to the next 7 days? I want to load my Euro card.

Is it best to do it asap or wait a few more days?

I know this is extreme crystal ball gazing but consider it a challenge Smile
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Dwarf Vader, trend definitely seems up... but it depends a little on how much you are loading...
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Much will depend on Portugal's bond sale and the news coming out of Portugal and Spain's banks.

Off a cent from 1.199 to 1.190 today but may well recover this before the day is out.
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MoodyFFS, good point, I'm thinking of the low 100's so overall a odd cent here or there wont make a massive difference.
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11895623
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 brian
brian
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Could somebody please do something about the Swiss Franc? £1 = 1.47 CHF Shocked Crying or Very sad
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
brian, tough to see the CHF weakening while the Euro continues to implode
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
brian, I know its pretty unbelievable, 1.46 now...
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
As the Scottish pound is maintaining parity with sterling, Scotland is looking rather good.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Not the proper place for this but the FTSE just broke 6000, how long has that been?
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Almost 3 years, maybe I can start looking at pensions statements again without getting upset Crying or Very sad
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
tiffin, not if you look at mine you can't. Effin' disasterous year - the retirement age keeps moving tantalisingly out of reach.
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JimW,
quite agree......6000 cos punters eye of the ball at xmas and big boys move in for undervalued stock-then we all get excited and start buying and lo and behold in jan the chaps will take their profit and we will we back to 5500..doh!! rolling eyes
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pension statements...... rolling eyes
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northantsred, Whats one of them?
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BOING!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/currency/11/13/default.stm
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Jeez, nearly 2% on the day!!

The wheels have fallen off the German economy and the rest of Europe barely has an economy so the Eurozone no longer looks a safe haven for investment. Germany aside, Eurozone is a gnat's away from being back in recession.

Despite the talk, I don't see UK rates rising much, if at all, provided inflation stays below 4%. Inflation is the easiest way of paying off government borrowing. Above 4% will be ringing alarm bells and 5% would be disastrous.

ETA - its 1% as I was looking at the two day movement rolling eyes


Last edited by After all it is free Go on u know u want to! on Fri 7-01-11 18:01; edited 1 time in total
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1 point fecking 2!

Never thought I'd be so happy to see the rate which we chose as the very, very pessimistic figure on which to base our business plans 3 and a half years ago!
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Swiss Franc the safe haven? Should have bought some this week.
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Whats going on with the Euro?

££ takes a beating most of last week, all around doom and gloom in Greece Portugal etc but no gains for Sterling

Im off to the beach in two weeks and was hoping for a mini revival but nothing doing Crying or Very sad
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
sweet Smile hadn't noticed that. time to make those international purchases that i've been putting off for too long Smile
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
hedley, because there seems little prospect of interest rate rise in UK and despite issues in greece, club med and ireland, the german and french economies are doing okay, better than UK. So basically overall I guess euro zone looks economically stronger than the UK and if greece defaults the UK is not isolated from the impact. Well that's my uninformed take on matters.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
hedley wrote:
Whats going on with the Euro?



This seems to be one of those times when the whole population can see some things that are blindingly obvious but politicians simply won’t act upon it.

The obvious points being:
1 We live on an island
2 We import more than we export
3 A low value pound increase the cost of living due to point 2 (but reduces interest payment in other currencies)
4 Politicians are self serving, self righteous, short sighted and as a rule not that bright
5 The pound is undervalued against the Euro. This is obvious to everyone, for the reasons stated in point 4

6 Your ski trip(s) is/are going to cost more
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Wayne, when will you be starting up your 'ski Scotland' trips ?
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
rayscoops wrote:
Wayne, when will you be starting up your 'ski Scotland' trips ?


Never, coz, as even though it is sometimes possible to sort of ski in Scotland, and you could do this whilst on holiday, it’s not really possible for most (non ruggid) families to have a ski holiday in Scotland – if you get my meaning.

I spend more time than most in the Scottish hills (I was working on Nevis last Saturday), and to put it bluntly the weather simply is not conducive with being able to forward plan a ski trip with enough certainty to make running tours practicable.

The weather is no-ones fault, it just is. It’s one of the few things about Scotland that even Would-Be-President-Salmond (see point 4 above wink ) can’t blame the English for. No use complaining about it, just have to accept that in certain parts of the world the mountains are, most of the time during the winter, simply cold, windy, icy and horrid.

EDIT>
PS, in case anyones interested. It was snowing on Nevis summit at 3am on Sunday (June 25th) morning
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Can't believe that with everything that is happening in the Eurozone at the moment and Cameron's statement that we will not be involved in any Greek bail out, the best travellers rate I can get is 1.095 and that is by loading up one of those pre-paid cards.

Just show's what a mess our economy is in, if the £ is not gaining on the € in the current climate.

Wayne, We do export alot of technology, it's not something you can touch but it is a big export market. We then import it back as finished goods from a cheaper manufacturing base. The cost of importing however has gone through the roof, 40' containers from China (port to port) have gone from around £900 3 years ago to over £3000 now. Doesn't have any significant impact on a £500 Iphone, but on large item's (i.e. anything that takes up alot of space on a container such as furniture) it does and manufacturing in the UK is now more viable.

I am of course presuming that consumers start spending again before manufacturers go bump.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Wayne wrote:

5 The pound is undervalued against the Euro. This is obvious to everyone, for the reasons stated in point 4


Arguably it's a policy of this government and the Bank of England to keep the value of the £ low as it increases the viability of our exporters and ultimately reduces the debt burden
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stevew wrote:
Arguably it's a policy of this government and the Bank of England to keep the value of the £ low as it increases the viability of our exporters and ultimately reduces the debt burden


Yeah I heard some daft politicianS saying this as well.

But.... As we import more than we export, it’s a fatuous self serving argument; which is what you’d expect from Westminster.

It’s so simple that even someone who has never had to earn a living doing a real job – like call-me-dave – should be able to understand, but obviously not.
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Quote:
Yeah I heard some daft politicians saying this as well. But.... As we import more than we export,


A low £ does a few things...

1) It makes our goods cheaper to export. Exporting goods means that more money is coming into the UK economy, relative to money going out. This in turn helps the UK economy. For the economy to bounce back stronger the gap between what we import and export needs to be reduced.

2) A low £ also reduces the (relative) value of the UK overseas debt.

3) A low £ boosts the UK tourist industry. More Europeans visit and more Brits 'stay at home' spending their money here.

For sure, the current low value of the 'British peso' is frustrating for holidaymakers.
But it is not necessarily a bad thing for longer term economic recovery.

As long as interest rates stay low then my guess is that the value of the £ will also stay low ? So probably for a few years.... The £ will eventually bounce back against the Euro (whose problems are only becoming apparent now), but if I had to guess it will take time - maybe 3+ years.
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The low £ also protects UK manufacturers against imports from the Eurozone. My guess is the government, through the so-called independent Monetary Policy Committee, will seek to keep it low against the Euro for at least 18 months. It's working for the company I work for. Of course if you're a TO you may have a different perspective.
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I am not sure that Uk has had a say in the value of Sterling for the last 10 or 20 years, not much propping it up or selling it off in the way it used to happen
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rayscoops, it can influence the exchange rate by setting the BofE interest rate.
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achilles, well yes, but the BoE administers that independently of the Government Little Angel
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rayscoops wrote:
achilles, well yes, but the BoE administers that independently of the Government Little Angel


Exactly. Haggis Trap put the case I was trying to make far more succinctly than I could - thanks.
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