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The All New 19/20 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Looks messy! What will Santa bring?

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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Looking rather warm in some parts of Europe

https://www.severe-weather.eu/mcd/unusual-very-warm-period-develops-europe-december-mk/
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Is there a specific thread in this sub-forum for Megeve / Cordon? Off for a little pre-xmas break with the family on Wednesday. Would love to get some insight into what we can expect.

Cheers,

Joel
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A high of +14 degrees forecast in the valley at Mayrhofen tomorrow.
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@Bennyboy1, Weihnachtstauwetter come early. Hints in GFS of a post Christmas cooling...
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@Bennyboy1, as the Zillertal runs north south it gets affected by the Föhn more than some other places as the wind get funneled through the valley, Innsbruck can be similar as it is at the end of the Wipptal. Not completely convinced by that forecast though, the strongest Föhn therefore highest temperatures are likely to be further west in Switzerland, places like Chur, Luzerne and Zürich will probably see temperatures well above 10 degrees, further east the Föhn is likely to be less intense therefore temperatures below 10 degrees in mountain valleys? Munich does seem set for mild Föhn temperatures, good for sipping Glühwein though (apparently) bad for migraines.
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Muttering of 17C in some Föhn effected areas.

https://www.wetter.at/wetter/oesterreich-wetter/Bis-zu-17-Grad-Keine-Chance-auf-weisse-Weihnachten/409497668
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For us down Sarf looks like we have to endure nigh on a week of temps circa +5 and grey skies and then Friday a reasonable snowfall into Saturday and then more snow 24th / 25th to nicely coincide with a brief trip back to the UK Sat 21st returning 24th rolling eyes

These temps will help consolidate the snowpack ready for the Xmas New Year hordes.
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@joelhopwood, There's generally an Evasion Mont Blanc thread although there isn't one yet for 2019/20. If you asked the question on last year's it might prompt a new one by seasoned travellers to that area.
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thank you
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nozawaonsen wrote:
Muttering of 17C in some Föhn effected areas.

https://www.wetter.at/wetter/oesterreich-wetter/Bis-zu-17-Grad-Keine-Chance-auf-weisse-Weihnachten/409497668


That's crazy !!!

How does that translate to ski stations in the area - what are the temps at 1,500m ?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2019/12/16/europe-on-the-long-term-16th-december/

Looking good for the Southern Alps for the next few weeks.

Some bouts of snowfall for the Northern Alps, but benefits from a more zonal setup in mid-January.
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@Weathercam, Bludenz, which is a town just to the west of the Arlberg, is currently 16 degrees https://www.wetteronline.de/wetter/bludenz. The Föhn can blast up the Rhine valley and cause very high temperatures. The effect is often very local. The various Arlberg resorts which are about 30kms away are around 4 degrees
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
munich_irish wrote:
@Weathercam, Bludenz, which is a town just to the west of the Arlberg, is currently 16 degrees https://www.wetteronline.de/wetter/bludenz. The Föhn can blast up the Rhine valley and cause very high temperatures. The effect is often very local. The various Arlberg resorts which are about 30kms away are around 4 degrees


Thanks for that I was wondering why the arlberg resorts were reporting lower and less snow eating temps!!
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@munich_irish, so resort temps are similar to here where currently at 1,400m it's +4.5 I wondered if they'd be higher etc
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@nozawaonsen,
@munich_irish,

Thanks very helpful. Yes I see GFS shows cooling quickly after 21st (with snow possible in FI)

Let’s see. I have to drive to Italy from Innsbruck on Wednesday so I would be happy for some sun in any case ....
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person

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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@Weathercam, I would guess that temperatures to the north (or west in your case) of the main ridge would be broadly similar. If you look at a 850pHa temperature map, which is sort of the temperature around 1500m, (there is a good one on wepowder) you can see the effect clearly. On the Italian side the temperatures are lower but all along the western / northern edge is a warmer area of broadly the same temperature. The higher temperatures seem most apparent around central Switzerland and east of Salzburg.
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Looks like a pretty good start to Xmas week. Snowy and getting cold again...

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Vizille (300m) showing off...

“ENCORE 20 DEGRÉS À 19h45 !
La température actuelle sur le Sud de l’agglomération grenobloise est de +20 degrés par effet de fœhn (à Vizille). Il a même fait +20,8 degrés cette après-midi comme en atteste la carte ci-contre.

Le vent de Sud (fœhn) sera à son paroxysme cette nuit et demain matin.

Le ciel lui sera toujours parcouru par de denses et étendus nuages élevés masquant souvent le soleil avec simplement de rares éclaircies de fœhn.
Les sommets le long de la frontière italienne et proche des Hautes-Alpes sont accrochés par les nuages (flocons à haute-altitude possibles).
Les températures évoluent peu mais les minimales sont en hausse.

Votre prévision pour les jours suivants a été actualisée : https://www.meteoalpes.fr/bulletin/alpes-du-nord/

Bonne soirée”
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@BobinCH, not too confident in that at this stage. Let’s see.
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
ECM and GFS ensembles throwing out cold outliers post Christmas.

ECM



GFS - Arlberg



Meanwhile the @BobinCHfall starting to shape up for around 21/22 December.

And even though it’s cold and dark in the morning’s (winter equinox this Sunday) still time to get up for those early morning training sessions...


http://youtube.com/v/eMhDQFLwrAA
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
joelhopwood wrote:
Is there a specific thread in this sub-forum for Megeve / Cordon? Off for a little pre-xmas break with the family on Wednesday. Would love to get some insight into what we can expect.

Cheers,

Joel


I'm sure someone will start the Evasion Mont Blanc 2019/20 thread as soon as anyone gets out there. I won't be out until 27th though
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Someone hits the brakes pretty hard on the Föhn on Friday...




http://youtube.com/v/6XMuUVw7TOM
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nozawaonsen wrote:
Someone hits the brakes pretty hard on the Föhn on Friday...




http://youtube.com/v/6XMuUVw7TOM


Fohn is actually most dreaded word for a skier. snowHead snowHead
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New December record (yay) for Salzburg airport, 20.1C...
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Global warming is back.

It's a disaster for the lower trails.

Not even freezing at night in Chamonix at the moment.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Also a record 18C in Meiringen, BE this morning.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
2waterford wrote:


Fohn is actually most dreaded word for a skier. snowHead snowHead


Out here in the PNW of America, we call it a Pineapple Express. I think it may also refer to a type of cannabis...but you know that stuff is legal out here too! Razz
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Meanwhile...

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nozawaonsen wrote:
Meanwhile...
Santa delivering very lovely presents snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Whitegold wrote:
Global warming is back.

It's a disaster for the lower trails.

Not even freezing at night in Chamonix at the moment.

Hot weather evaporates water
What goes up, has to come down.
Hopefully as snow and not rain
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@nozawaonsen, where do you get the ECM ensemble chart from?
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If it snows for Christmas Day, what are the rules regarding family, is it ok to go skiing and abandon them? snowHead Toofy Grin
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No family on a powder day I’m afraid. They need to learn that Very Happy
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No family on a powder day I’m afraid. They need to learn that Very Happy
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That would be quite tasty....

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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
So my wepowder was showing minus 20 for austria around the 31st. Morris was mentioning some problem with their software, I appreciate it's long off but is that what the models are saying or is it his anomaly? Bringing my kids out the week after for their first real trip so have skin in the game.
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@8611, far too early to tell.
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Hi guys,

I'm absolutely ignorant of weather forecasting I'm afraid. We made the mistake of looking at the Alpbach webcams today and our jaws dropped when we saw the temps and the lack of snow (we arrive on the 28th).

From what I read above, a lot of resorts experiencing high temps. In lay terms please, are we looking at temps dropping and snow falling by then or is it a case of wait and see?
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