 Poster: A snowHead
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
achilles, This really is good news for you, for your employer/shareholders and for the UK (Jobs, saves Forex, pays taxes, reduces carbon emissions etc: The sad thing is this is relatively rare and extraordinary exceptions do happen within any wider pattern and clearly not everything will fit my UK is bust mould, and thankfully there will be some success stories.
I was once lined up as a public scapegoat for a progressive/worsening devaluation/currency weakness of a country. Savage devaluation is usually extremely unpopular for the reasons I've outlined above, and politicians etc always like to be able to blame someone else, even if it’s not their fault!
An editor/journalist called asking what was happening in the economy and what could be done to save it. My answer was pretty simple: Imagine a country as a family that "WANTS" a new TV. Ask first if they really NEED a new TV, and if so where the money is coming from to pay for it. Countries as we now commonly see in the press, can and do live well beyond their actual means. I suggested that a “buy local” (like the buy British) campaign was introduced and strongly supported by the press. I explained that I bought only domestically manufactured drinking water, toilet paper and toothpaste. Imported goods were usually available, but sometimes not when Forex was particularly tight for importers who then just couldn't import unless they have foreign credit or the Forex ready to pay. My pantry was stuffed with large quantities of all of these items just in case! I also explained that there was no point in NGO's, politicians, charities etc providing healthcare, education, housing etc if we continued to import beyond our means to pay from our national income as a country could provide to support it. The scramble for Forex was so bad that charities and NGO's were able, if they chose to auction/sell Forex outside of the banking system, and sadly when things fall apart even the threat of execution as in Zimbabwe doesn’t stop the practice. Inevitably when this occurs, much of Forex would be expatriated off-shore, further exacerbating the Forex drought and worsening the spiralling devaluation of the currency. The charities that had previously provided these benefits were then denying local manufacturers the vital funds needed to buy raw materials to support local indigenous manufacturing and employments. Ergo without jobs, the healthcare, education etc. was pointless and the jobs were essentially being shipped offshore each time Forex was remitted. This is why I say that the UK is exactly in the same boat. The numbers are bigger and the issues more diverse, but the same underlying dynamics.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
livetoski,
| Quote: |
| Maybe the move to one currency would enable this? |
h'mmm I've had similar thoughts and must admit I wished we'd joined the Euro decades ago -I concede that we could be in a similar situation to Ireland and once the music stops we will perhaps be even. I'm not entirely convinced that well run economies would suffer from a larger common currency area (which means effectively a fixed internal exchange rate) however for example, it could be hard for say Italy or Spain to control specific inflation issues when people can walk over the border to buy goods with the same currency, and logically interest rates would be broadly similar ( country risk for governments excluded!) so governments to an extent, cede partial monetary and fiscal control when they join: Inflation, certainly in the UK has always been the elastic alternative to rising unemployment. Inflation usually leads to a weaker currency and surprise building on surprise, a weaker currency stokes inflation as the cost of imported good rises and rises. If we're not exporting, or in our case we gradually export less and less, then it really shouldn't be a surprise that we have; inflation, and a depreciating currency to go along with a steady erosion of our manufacturing base.
A common currency isn't necessarily a bad thing, esepcially if it's structured and well managed it can provide a centralised restraint to prevent governments from effectively exceeding the financial speed limits. When it goes wrong it's hell, as the rules are meant to prevent not cure bad behaviour and in an EU sense it's not the Euro which is flawed, it's weak governments which allow divergent policy adjustments which undermine the common or greater good. Had the UK had the balls to have resisted uneconomic/unearnt pay claims which weren't supported by productivity (British Leyland then, BA, tube etc now) then perhaps we would have a stronger currency and a thriving domestic car industry as well. Sadly neither is the case!
There are times when we’ve suffered myopic governments in the UK that fiddle, reacting through knee jerk policy rather than using well considered and structured polices to provide safe passage –my thoughts straying to a committed, centralist European model wherein the likes of Le Pen, Enoch Powell and Gordon Brown are moderated back towards the middle ground of modern politics. That’s when the Sun storms in to keep Sterling British and to save the pound. Personally if it’s only worth one euro cent I cannot see the point in saving it!
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
| Jivebaby wrote: |
| rayscoops, China was firmly pegged for decades as is the HKD which was engineered to provide monetary stability for SAR. |
and as export economies that peg was, and in China's case still is, competitively low 
UK exports have been picking up quite well over the last 12 months thanks to the low value of Sterling.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
rayscoops,
| Quote: |
| and as export economies that peg was, and in China's case still is, competitively low |
Your view is a very "current" now. When precisely are you nailing the "was" part of your statement?
The value of the USD have varied and changed significantly over the past 50 years or so and as I said earlier. Any analyst can make a bold statement which given enough time will become true or relevant. When the EUR/USD rate was down at 0.82 would you have made the same comments then or perhaps with even more conviction when at 1.60?
Sterling went down to a low of 1.02 ish USD in the mid 80's, we then had the massive Fed intervention where dollars were sold on a massive wholesale scale and typically markets as they do overshot. Sterling was actually pegged to the USD at 4.03 What I'm basically saying is that you can have exactly the same argument for a number of currency pairs at virtually any point in time and of course going backwards is easy which is where all the best trades were missed, but the difficulty is projecting the same template forward let alone making predictions relevant and time bound.
Whilst I do not necessarily disagree with you observation regarding the USD/CNY rate could be "adjusted", the fixed rate does have some advantages to the US inasmuch as they are able to source cheap goods etc so it's not a one side argument and I'd argue that it's more a matter of current USD weakness/lack of strength which will probably be seen as part of a longer cyclical phase when looking back in 20/50 years time.
| Quote: |
| UK exports have been picking up quite well over the last 12 months thanks to the low value of Sterling |
This is a bit like saying you've rescued one of your children from a burning car when your wife and three other children are still inside!
The UK trade deficit over the past 18 months (period of relative GBP/currency weakness) has more or less deteriorated in a straight line £4.9bn deficit for July and it certainly wouldn't suprise me to see it average another £20bn-£25bn combined for the remaining five months. I'm not ignoring or isolating export performance, far from it, as I really think it's important to consider export performance as an integral aprt of or trade/current account balance. With worsening trade figures sterling is hardly likely to regain significant strength in the near term and this will only exacerbate our trading performance, not enhance or support it. Perversely if exports were really strong and we imported less as a country we would be much better off with a strong currency as our imports would cost less and our exports would earn more. Sadly this is not the case.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
| Jivebaby wrote: |
| ......sterling is hardly likely to regain significant strength in the near term..... |
I do hope so.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
In 1986 US had a trade deficit with China of $1.6 Billion, in 2009 it was $229 Billion. China operate a positive overall trade balance. Cheap local labour is a strong reason for this, but a competitive currency is equally as important. China has deliberately kept its currency low to take advantage of its export positive trade balance.
The UK trade deficit has and will expand as long as we are relying upon imported products such as oil etc,. and its related price fluctuation. If UK is to prosper we can not continue to rely upon imports and maintain a strong Sterling to mask this scenario, we have to change the structure of our business, start making and selling things in the 'high-tech' arena and become self sufficient in energy generation
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
rayscoops,
| Quote: |
| If UK is to prosper we can not continue to rely upon imports and maintain a strong Sterling to mask this scenario, we have to change the structure of our business, start making and selling things in the 'high-tech' arena and become self sufficient in energy generation |
Full revolving circle theory then. Ice ages are the similar and we probably won't agree on global warming either!
The only certaintity is that change/s will continue to occur at an ever increasing pace relative to the past and that the UK will fail to make a dent in the productivity race v our competitors until the likes of China, India, Taiwan, Korea, Australia, etc decide that the UK would be a great place for outsourcing manufacturing and administrative centre investment as we will be able to provide cheap labour, an ultra competetive exchange rate and a common world language. Ergo they become the new UK and we become the new China/India in say fifty years or so, but probably sooner. Bob Crowe's children will then be able to close our remaining factories, schools, tubes (topical today) airlines etc. Who knows we may even be making cars so we can enjoy British Leyland workers pricing themselves out of jobs all over again.
Then, if we have any commerce at all after another 10-20 years the Chinese will be asking for trade embargoes against the UK/Germany unless we strengthen our currencies 
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
Jivebaby, I prefer the self sufficient theory of having our own power, water, food, high-tech clean industry, research, inventions, technology etc etc. We will never be able to be the new China/India/Indonesia because of climate/land mass/population ratio.
If we want a car or washing machine we can import one, but we can not carry on importing the heat and light in our homes. An import based society is one that will cripple us and a strong currency in merely the crutch that will ease the inevitable pain of death. Any long term strategy that has to rely on Sterling (never mind a strong Sterling) as a leading world currency is also fundamentally flawed.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Colin B wrote: |
| www.TravelMoneyServices.co.uk |
Part of Crown Currency who have gone into administration, I hope everyone already has their cash.
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
Hells Bells,
Must admit I've never heard of either of these names - and the maxim Caveat emptor really must apply:
Likewise Metrobank has been mentioned in our forums with a nice website, coin counting service and cute pet awards. They even have a nice shop in west London but all things considered they are run by a bunch of people that I've never heard of: It's time punters woke up, watch what they tread in and do their homework before parting with their cash.
I've no idea whether TMS customers will lose all or some of their money or not as the FSA merely provides some measure of regulation, not depositor gurantees or protection, notwithstanding that, it's unlikely that TMS were a licensed deposit taker so most of the funds should be held in segregated accounts. Fingers crossed and be careful what you wish for
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
Jivebaby, those people you have never heard of at MetroBank?
The CEO, Vernon Hill, is perhaps the most effective bank CEO in the last 50 years in the US.
Look him up, look up the history and operating culture of his old bank ( Commerce Bank) the man is an inspirational genius.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
rungsp,
| Quote: |
Jivebaby, those people you have never heard of at MetroBank?
The CEO, Vernon Hill, is perhaps the most effective bank CEO in the last 50 years in the US.
Look him up, look up the history and operating culture of his old bank ( Commerce Bank) the man is an inspirational genius.
|
I did = On June 29, 2007, Hill was forced to resign as Chairman and CEO of Commerce Bancorp after the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and the board of directors of Commerce Bancorp established governance to stop doing business with firms under the control of his family. Notable business dealings with insiders included property leases with entities in which Hill was a partner, and the purchase of services from an architectural design business run by his wife, Shirley."
He certainly did very well for himself: He created a bank built on the Burger King template which was later sold, however whilst my research isn't perfect, I do try to make sure that I complete my own due diligence before parting with my remaining cash. Somehow I doubt that Hill will be in the running for any of the top jobs in US banking and his track record ended critically a few weeks before the credit crisis hit the public windscreens. Potentially things could have been very, very different so we'll never know.
Based on your tip, I won't be passing any bags of coins to Mr Hill for a while yet.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
|
Jivebaby, I knew we had to agree on something. I am sticking with an old fashioned boring bank, which has not needed Middle Eastern or taxpayers' money. Not the cheapest in town, and certainly not the highest saving rates, - but it's awfully nice to be able to get my hands on my money when I want to.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
achilles, I did qualify some of my sterling related comments with "sadly" so perhaps we really do agree on what we'd like to have but maybe differ on how we see see future reality panning out? 
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
|
Jivebaby, not sure. I think the biggest threat is inadequate future energy supply. We will be dependent on too few power stations, and lack energy security. That's ironic if the UK has adequate reserves (surprisingly no one seems to have much clue on that) and that we were once a leader in the science and engineering of nuclear power generation. If energy problems can be overcome, then I think the future can be reasonably bright if we manufacture more, grow much of our own food, and maybe accept a generally lower standard of living.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
achilles, I'm a big fan of clean nuclear power that is well run and safe.
Shame that the unwashed tree huggers of the past have placed the UK in a postion where we must burn fossil fuels: The problem is that sucessive governments have avoided the critical strategic issues of power genration, infrastructure, pension and benefit reform: Incredibly ironic that the current administration is being castigated for facing the problems now that were ducked in the past.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
|
Wayne, speculation about QE2? The US will probably do the same, so no comparable fall of £ against $.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
laundryman,
I need to change some £'s into euros soon (pre-christmas) - to wait a while or not....who knows
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
Wayne, ...not me.
We've been very lucky, having set a lot of $ and € prices with customers 2-3 years ago, when the £ was much stronger. Quids in now. 
(I should emphasise, luck rather than judgement.)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Wayne wrote: |
| why the freefall this past 4 weeks ?... |
What laundryman said - I think the UK government is believed by the markets to go for more QE to solve domestic problems and keep the exchange rate low.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
maybe the ECB base rate is going to be raised ?
actually Sterling is not falling, the Euro is rising and is doing so against most currencies
Last edited by After all it is free  on Thu 7-10-10 8:38; edited 1 time in total
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Arno, very good article - puts things as clearly as I have seen.
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
|
achilles, Ed Balls's brother believe it or not!
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
The whole thing is FUBAR at the moment. US employment figures might be interesting tomorrow but probably not.
Investors are seeing the ECB as prepared to do anything to keep the currency afloat. With that in place and every other currency keen to be cheap (the UK is ignoring inflation to pay down the debt so import costs from a cheap currency are not on the radar) I see no end to the € rise.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
so is this rate going to go up between now and mid november or fall. I have ther balance to pay on my holiday by mid nov in euros so if anyone has a good bet which way might save me a few quid
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
|
Sterling is yesterdays currency (as i always said). Best is to ask your employer to pay into a Euro or Swiss Account
Last edited by You know it makes sense. on Mon 11-10-10 9:24; edited 1 time in total
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
^^^ lulz 
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
|
Pound rising steadily against $ - good because commodities are priced in $. Pound has been dropping gently against €. Good, because very good for business at present exchange rate.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
| Jivebaby wrote: |
Michael B, Hats off dude
achilles, rayscoops, Sorry I disagree: IMO that is an historical socialist myth and a discredited doctrine: 
In contemporary times succesful exporters of the last 50-60 years or so have benefited from strong currencies. Switzerland, Germany, China and still strghthening desspite the US rhetoric, Japain, Taiwan, Korea, Australia, Canada.....It's hard to think of any sucessful exprting economy that has a weak currency. The sad thing is that some people in the UK actually beleive that hogwash and as a country that been decling in manufacturing terms for 50 years or so as a net importer of goods a weak cuurency only widens our current deficit. The UK can hardly compete as a tourist destination with mainland Europe so that one doesn't flaot the credibility boat either. Watch India, Brazil, Mexico too:
In another 20 years looks at the success stories again and I'll bet my house the overwhelming track record will provide unchallengeable evidence that a strong currency is best in every way. |
well the Guv of the Bank of England was just saying that we need to export ourselves out of trouble to generate employment ! there is a big battle going on in Forex at the moment, US$ was flying up over the last few days and has crashed today.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
|
Looking pretty dire for the pound v the Euro this morning. Currently at 1.1264. I thought a few weeks ago it would get down to 1.10 before Xmas. Now looks like it could get to 1.10 in the next week!!
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
|
jimmybog, That has decided me to buy my skipasses for March today, specially as it includes a 10% discount. I was wondering whether to hold on a bit but it looks like its not a good idea.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
I read an interesting article that was talking about how the Euro holding at its current strength is due to all other currencies, including Sterling, the Dollar and the Yen, desperately trying to devalue to help them export out of recession. Because the Euro is increasing in value it is becoming ever more popular as the currency to buy with that aim in mind.
The author of the article expressed surprise at the fact that neither the French nor the Germans were doing anything about it and his feeling was that this continued trend was unsustainable in the long term and some form of major shock, such as the Spanish / Portuguese / Irish / Greek economies getting in to serious trouble, was likely to happen which would rebalance the Euro vs other currencies.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
What the **** is going on ?
What happened on the 10 Sept 2010 ?
It was looking reasonable for this year (comparatively) with
the pound going up steadily from March onwards, then (10th sept) it all went pear shaped - why ?
This chart has a direct impact on the ski holidays of zillions of people this season. Not Good
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Wayne, with £ strengthening against the $ maybe the zillions will be heading to North America etc instead  I think there is a lot of jiggery pokery going on in the markets at the moment, especially forex !
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Wayne wrote: |
What the **** is going on ?
What happened on the 10 Sept 2010 ? |
After rising for a while, £ moved down through its 20 day moving average (actually the moving average caught up with its price) which is commonly a 'profit taking' statistical trigger, this I assume spurred others to close out their long positions which set off a mini dip, two days later £ fell down through both its 40 and 60 day moving averages, which is likewise an even stronger trigger to take profits and even a trigger to purchase a 'sell' of short position, i.e. bet that £ will fall against Euro.
£ is trading well below all its Moving Averages at the moment and heading down further so it may well be in to December before any 'buy' or 'profit taking' triggers - my gut feel is that it will slide down to 1.10 or lower then flatten off and rise slowly back up to 1.16 or 1.18 by Dec/Jan.
I may be totally wrong though 
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
| rayscoops wrote: |
| Wayne wrote: |
What the **** is going on ?
What happened on the 10 Sept 2010 ? |
After rising for a while, £ moved down through its 20 day moving average (actually the moving average caught up with its price) which is commonly a 'profit taking' statistical trigger, this I assume spurred others to close out their long positions which set off a mini dip, two days later £ fell down through both its 40 and 60 day moving averages, which is likewise an even stronger trigger to take profits and even a trigger to purchase a 'sell' of short position, i.e. bet that £ will fall against Euro.
£ is trading well below all its Moving Averages at the moment and heading down further so it may well be in to December before any 'buy' or 'profit taking' triggers - my gut feel is that it will slide down to 1.10 or lower then flatten off and rise slowly back up to 1.16 or 1.18 by Dec/Jan.
I may be totally wrong though |
So buy now for the season?
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dwarf Vader, rayscoops, ECR opine that EUR/GBP has really strong technical support at around 0.8625 (1.1594 for the hoi-poloi) - This is support for the Euro not GBP as the consolidation continues. Not good news for holders of GBP and I tend to side with Dwarf Vader, sentiments although I doubt we will see any significant respite. I convert any bookings straight into Euros or Chf to save the hassle.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FAQ
