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The All New Weather Outlook 24/25

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Quote:

This is a thread in which many people talk in riddles.

"If the 1200z GFS indicates what some of us might infer, St Bartholomew's night will be one to remember. "

Mum's the word......

well observed @Origen, Laughing
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Snow&skifan wrote:
under a new name wrote:
@hold_my_biere, yeah, a bit disappointing given what was supposed to have arrived by now per Meteoblue's forecasts on Saturday/Sunday. Hey ho. That's November. Just enough snow to be annoying.


Quite a bit of precipitation heading your way from tonight onwards? At those temperatures snow at most altitudes.
https://www.yr.no/nb/v%C3%A6rvarsel/daglig-tabell/2-3027301/Frankrike/Auvergne-Rh%C3%B4ne-Alpes/Haute-Savoie/Chamonix


I like YR....
https://www.yr.no/en/forecast/daily-table/2-6544556/France/Auvergne-Rh%C3%B4ne-Alpes/Savoy/Val%20Thorens

But as others have noticed, perhaps a degrading of forecasts vs observation. My bigger focus is on how mild it's going to be weekend of 30th onwards....high pressure likely to dominate from then on..... Puzzled if the ECM anomalies are anything to go by - with orange being highs and blue lows. No greenland/midatlantic highs or nor Scandi high, just high pressures the trend...not sure how cold it will be under those highs, with some weeks looking very mild indeed for the time of year. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202411190000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202412300000
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Origen wrote:
This is a thread in which many people talk in riddles.

It was the giboules that got me. Not a word I had met before.
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 You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
@under a new name, irrelevant. No need to turn this into a race to the bottom of the barrel. There’s a few people on here with double standards on behaviour and how they speak to others! Im not defending anything Whitegold may say which may or may not be trolling but it’s just uncalled for from Layne.

Anyways back to the weather and hoping for happy days!
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Giboulées. Yes, familiar from French weather forecasts which are more inclined to flights of fancy than British ones. "A shy and reluctant sun may peep out from behind the clouds for brief moments".
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 You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
https://www.weathertoski.co.uk/weather-snow/ ...a view...
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
davidof wrote:
hold_my_biere wrote:
Chamonix Meteo was saying 50-70cm at 1,300m from last night to tonight. Can't see it being anything close to that so far. Looks more like 30cm at 1,800m from webcams, and a dusting in town.


tonight hasn't happened yet, I believe snow should restart later.

There has been around 30cm over 2300 meters in that area (as you estimate) but town is what? 1100 meters? There was about 15cm in Courchevel 1850 at the bottom of the pistes this morning.


As of tonight Meteo France thinks there will be well over a meter of snow at 1800 meters in the Mont Blanc range through to Friday night with avalanche risk 4 tomorrow, 70-80cm in the peripheral mountain ranges. Tignes looking like a better choice than Val Thorens for the opening weekend.

Elsewhere more around the 50cm mark for the week, more or less what I was expecting last week.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Why does this thread attract people who have nothing to say about the actual weather outlook, year after year,....why are you posting here? There are hundreds of other threads.

@Origen....why do you post here? You often seem to be inferring something ...."some people" "riddles" etc.
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 You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
@Ackie68, heard this today at work(ADH)that a mild spell is coming for the first week of December. Hopefully will change.
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 Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Decent dump at altitude in Western CH. On the border almost 1m in 24 hours. And it’s getting much colder with another decent dump forecast on Thursday night
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 snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
@BobinCH, what alt.?
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Alpinebear wrote:
@Ackie68, heard this today at work(ADH)that a mild spell is coming for the first week of December. Hopefully will change.


good intel...and talk of Foehn/Föhn next week. Mad Mad

The outlook looks like the highs are set in.... rolling eyes rolling eyes but hopefully the mild temps wont verify
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Its snowing hard in the Netherlands, now if only they had hills…..
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
8 years ago on this date we’d been skiing up Le Tour. Or so my FB feed tells me. Can’t find any other evidence tho!
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Can we all please refrain from personal attacks and focus on the weather?

There's plenty to be interested in just now in that respect!

Interesting disagreement between sources over whether next week will bring "snow eating" föhn for the northern Alps (e.g. Weathertoski) or whether dry air will preserve the snow cover (e.g. Wepowder).

Do we think there will now be a decent base above ~2,000m in the NW Alps?
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Jäger wrote:
elefantfresh wrote:
Somebody give this man a job!
Thanks @Polo - great insight as always


Ditto - great to have his contribution here….even if I don’t always quite grasp the content Embarassed
+1 Amazing work. Thank you, even if I don't understand most of it either.
snow conditions
 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Looks like 30-40 cm @ 2,200m in Verbier so far according to that webcam they have which shows snow depth: https://www.teleport.io/view?feedId=zrrxhkayanlbdg8zudsm&view=full

I wish more places had webcams set up like this. It would stop me spending my time squinting at various piste markers and rocks trying to guess the depth.

Anyway I got the email from Chamonix saying they won't open Grands Montets this weekend so it's safe to assume it's on the low end of the forecasts up there too. Doesn't look too hopeful for the following weekend either at this point.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Quote:

Interesting disagreement between sources

@denfinella, @anyone got a quick answer as to which models those two sites run off? And thus why a "disagreement"?

"Decent Base" is a bit of a nuanced question. Is there enough snow to form a "decent" base, depnds what you mean? Probs. not quite, although there are tracks down to Lognan (1972m) so it's "technically skiable for values of skiable that may or may not require base repairs" but even with enough snow, if by decent base you mean a solid enough, compacted base that will form the foundations of the pistes for the season, not enough round here by eyeball and it's been very windy up there.

@hold_my_biere, I'd say 20-25cms, adjusting for drifting against the poles. But I agree, it's a great indicator, and so simple.
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 You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
@under a new name, both sources are human-based analysis, and use multiple models.

Good point re. base - what I really meant was whether the snow at those altitudes will stick around to form the foundations of the pistes. So, the answer for your patch seems to be "not yet" - but there's still another storm due today!
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
@denfinella, on the sticking around, yeah, probably not there yet.

Interesting re those sites. I must dig in. My fave site is meteoblue which for a multi-model site, I find pretty consistent around this region.

Here's Cham Met's take,
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