 Poster: A snowHead
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This is a thread in which many people talk in riddles.
"If the 1200z GFS indicates what some of us might infer, St Bartholomew's night will be one to remember. "
Mum's the word......
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well observed @Origen, 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| Origen wrote: |
| This is a thread in which many people talk in riddles. |
It was the giboules that got me. Not a word I had met before.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@under a new name, irrelevant. No need to turn this into a race to the bottom of the barrel. There’s a few people on here with double standards on behaviour and how they speak to others! Im not defending anything Whitegold may say which may or may not be trolling but it’s just uncalled for from Layne.
Anyways back to the weather and hoping for happy days!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Giboulées. Yes, familiar from French weather forecasts which are more inclined to flights of fancy than British ones. "A shy and reluctant sun may peep out from behind the clouds for brief moments".
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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| davidof wrote: |
| hold_my_biere wrote: |
| Chamonix Meteo was saying 50-70cm at 1,300m from last night to tonight. Can't see it being anything close to that so far. Looks more like 30cm at 1,800m from webcams, and a dusting in town. |
tonight hasn't happened yet, I believe snow should restart later.
There has been around 30cm over 2300 meters in that area (as you estimate) but town is what? 1100 meters? There was about 15cm in Courchevel 1850 at the bottom of the pistes this morning. |
As of tonight Meteo France thinks there will be well over a meter of snow at 1800 meters in the Mont Blanc range through to Friday night with avalanche risk 4 tomorrow, 70-80cm in the peripheral mountain ranges. Tignes looking like a better choice than Val Thorens for the opening weekend.
Elsewhere more around the 50cm mark for the week, more or less what I was expecting last week.
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Why does this thread attract people who have nothing to say about the actual weather outlook, year after year,....why are you posting here? There are hundreds of other threads.
@Origen....why do you post here? You often seem to be inferring something ...."some people" "riddles" etc.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@Ackie68, heard this today at work(ADH)that a mild spell is coming for the first week of December. Hopefully will change.
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Decent dump at altitude in Western CH. On the border almost 1m in 24 hours. And it’s getting much colder with another decent dump forecast on Thursday night
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@BobinCH, what alt.?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Its snowing hard in the Netherlands, now if only they had hills…..
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You know it makes sense.
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8 years ago on this date we’d been skiing up Le Tour. Or so my FB feed tells me. Can’t find any other evidence tho!
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Can we all please refrain from personal attacks and focus on the weather?
There's plenty to be interested in just now in that respect!
Interesting disagreement between sources over whether next week will bring "snow eating" föhn for the northern Alps (e.g. Weathertoski) or whether dry air will preserve the snow cover (e.g. Wepowder).
Do we think there will now be a decent base above ~2,000m in the NW Alps?
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Poster: A snowHead
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| Jäger wrote: |
| elefantfresh wrote: |
Somebody give this man a job!
Thanks @Polo - great insight as always |
Ditto - great to have his contribution here….even if I don’t always quite grasp the content  |
+1 Amazing work. Thank you, even if I don't understand most of it either.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Looks like 30-40 cm @ 2,200m in Verbier so far according to that webcam they have which shows snow depth: https://www.teleport.io/view?feedId=zrrxhkayanlbdg8zudsm&view=full
I wish more places had webcams set up like this. It would stop me spending my time squinting at various piste markers and rocks trying to guess the depth.
Anyway I got the email from Chamonix saying they won't open Grands Montets this weekend so it's safe to assume it's on the low end of the forecasts up there too. Doesn't look too hopeful for the following weekend either at this point.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Interesting disagreement between sources
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@denfinella, @anyone got a quick answer as to which models those two sites run off? And thus why a "disagreement"?
"Decent Base" is a bit of a nuanced question. Is there enough snow to form a "decent" base, depnds what you mean? Probs. not quite, although there are tracks down to Lognan (1972m) so it's "technically skiable for values of skiable that may or may not require base repairs" but even with enough snow, if by decent base you mean a solid enough, compacted base that will form the foundations of the pistes for the season, not enough round here by eyeball and it's been very windy up there.
@hold_my_biere, I'd say 20-25cms, adjusting for drifting against the poles. But I agree, it's a great indicator, and so simple.
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@under a new name, both sources are human-based analysis, and use multiple models.
Good point re. base - what I really meant was whether the snow at those altitudes will stick around to form the foundations of the pistes. So, the answer for your patch seems to be "not yet" - but there's still another storm due today!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@denfinella, on the sticking around, yeah, probably not there yet.
Interesting re those sites. I must dig in. My fave site is meteoblue which for a multi-model site, I find pretty consistent around this region.
Here's Cham Met's take, 
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10am in The Alps yet still very cold eg Arosa -8c, Selva -10c.
Good for snowmaking?
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| Snow&skifan wrote: |
10am in The Alps yet still very cold eg Arosa -8c, Selva -10c.
Good for snowmaking? |
The Super Dolomiti resorts are definitely firing the cannons up - ideal conditions to lay down the artificial base they’re so renowned for. Having said this, the amount of natural snow forecast in the east during this storm is small change compared to what’s coming down in the NW Alps.
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| franga wrote: |
| Snow&skifan wrote: |
10am in The Alps yet still very cold eg Arosa -8c, Selva -10c.
Good for snowmaking? |
The Super Dolomiti resorts are definitely firing the cannons up - ideal conditions to lay down the artificial base they’re so renowned for. Having said this, the amount of natural snow forecast in the east during this storm is small change compared to what’s coming down in the NW Alps. |
Very often the way historically? Even in the 80’s I remember the Italian Alps (east of say Lake Como) including the Dolomites often being arid. In recent times made up for by great snowmaking. Plus they avoid the rainy low pressure systems afflicting the French Alps in some recent winters.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Looks like lots of resorts have the snow cannons on full blast. Hopefully get a consolidated base mixed in with the fresh snow before it warms up a bit.
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Snowing since I started work this morning. Something magical when the first snows arrives.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| sparkzter wrote: |
| Looks like lots of resorts have the snow cannons on full blast. Hopefully get a consolidated base mixed in with the fresh snow before it warms up a bit. |
I think in places there is far too much wind for the canons to build the snow in the right places.
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Snow in the village in Les Contamines (1100m) and 45cm on the depth gauge at 1880m (Signal)
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You know it makes sense.
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Sit back and "enjoy" one for the real geeks https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/ which takes a global view with the guy, Dr Judah Cohen based in the US, focusing on the Polar Vortex. His "plain" language summary is:
"Strong Greenland blocking is bringing an early taste of winter with cold and snow to Europe (see Figures 2 and 3). Not one but two stretched polar vortices are predicted in the next two weeks and they will tag team to finally bring some cold air to the US, strongest in the Northern Plains but making it all the way to the East Coast (see Figure 9) and even some snow. But longer term the circulation and the strong polar vortex favor a milder pattern"
He updated yesterday:
"Still watching the battle for the soul of the winter between the strong polar vortex and the high latitude blocking. From what I can see from the latest weather model forecasts, the stratosphere and troposphere remain uncoupled, but it appears to that we are getting closer towards the strong polar vortex is closer to imposing its will or influence on the tropospheric circulation and on the weather. The predicted warm/positive PCHs in the troposphere are slowly fading while the more negative/cold PCHs in the stratosphere in the upper stratosphere are predicted to descend to the lower stratosphere (see Figure iii). Still some remnant of warm/positive PCHs can still be seen even out to two weeks and maybe the high latitude blocking can stage a comeback.
Observed and predicted daily polar cap height (i.e., area-averaged geopotential heights poleward of 60°N) standardized anomalies. The forecast is from the 00Z 20 November 2024 GFS ensemble.
In addition, the weather models are starting to predict Ural troughing. This is a change from Monday and a tropospheric feature that favors a strong PV and eventually milder weather across the NH."
So lots pointing to milder pattern after these storms for the "foreseable" but lots of battles still to play out.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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The Haldon Hills in S Devon (UK) are continuing to have conditions which could, naay should, be construed as white, wintery and wather wonderful - for at least the next half hour. Get out there grockles.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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It is snowing hard at 666m here in Centron (Aime La Plagne)
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| Ackie68 wrote: |
| sparkzter wrote: |
| Looks like lots of resorts have the snow cannons on full blast. Hopefully get a consolidated base mixed in with the fresh snow before it warms up a bit. |
I think in places there is far too much wind for the canons to build the snow in the right places. |
certainly some nice little slabs forming in places, luckily no weak layers to give it more energy but locally it could be problematic over the weekend
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Snowing well since midday down at lac leman, under 400m….maybe 4-5cm and the snowploughs are out, never seen this in November the last 13years anyway….most years just get a week or two of snow in jan or feb around Geneva. Although the bises wind can be brutal.
We are in the midst of a very special pattern, I would say once in every 2 years, over the whole season…..again can only speak of recent decade.
For me the single most important indicator is low pressure thickness, as measured by dam, and visible as those dark blue areas on the charts.
It’s helps to have slack wind as well, like from this evening onwards…..high wind tends to add more warmth, and leads to other concerns as above.
That’s the main difference from how these 2 short wave lows are evolving, the second one took a more southerly track and colder air was already in place from Tuesdays low.
Next week is firming up, better chances of cooler air per ECM. Interesting options into early dec re. northern high, again great article posted above.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Is there a temperature where it is too cold to make snow?
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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@polo, I seem to recall a big dump to lake level in 2012? I’d need to check but I was driving Geneva to Zurich and it took me 8 hours
It’s been snowing heavily but fine snow in Cham since I got back from tennis about 12h00.
Not enormous accumulation but very pretty and wintery.
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@under a new name, dec 2012 I think was exceptional, or was it 13…..but I can’t think of any more this early. It’s already turning to rain now as expected and will climb to 1500m+ briefly, hopefully trapped valley cold air will help moderate the temps. But it’s going to plunge soon after regardless
Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Thu 21-11-24 15:11; edited 1 time in total
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Yes, they've put out a new article today; less optimistic than the previous day! 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| denfinella wrote: |
Yes, they've put out a new article today; less optimistic than the previous day! |
wepowder snow predictions tend to melt like a snowflake in July
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@davidof, they are pretty good, I always learn something. I think it’s a hybrid of various models and their own data. The only thing i think they could do better is publish earlier, have faith, but you know, stuff to sell.
Peak wind approaching now, I’ve just had 2 very brief power cuts, once the centre of this low passes over us it’s going to bring down N/NW polar air and nice snow
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FAQ
if the ECM anomalies are anything to go by - with orange being highs and blue lows. No greenland/midatlantic highs or nor Scandi high, just high pressures the trend...not sure how cold it will be under those highs, with some weeks looking very mild indeed for the time of year. 
