 Poster: A snowHead
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This brings back memories or a farmer friend who was buying a new combine, on €500,000 he was gutted when the rate dropped from 1.73 to 1.68 over the interval between pressing the go button for the order and arranging the money transfer... it brings misty eyed tears of yesteryear! I think he's now thinking of selling it back to the continent second hand (or he ought to be...)
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Wayne wrote: |
| Timmaah wrote: |
| Ya but it won't go back to 1.4-1.5 because the pound was grossly overvalued at the time.... |
Doesn't really matter what the value of the pound is.
Due to the sheer size of the EU it's more to do with what the value of the Euro is as the pound will float with all the other dosh from around the world against this.
It’s deff going to get dragged down by the PIGGS anyway but this will be compounded by Germany being buggered as it appears to be, so you never know we may see 1.4
Basic fact is the EU was a stupid idea, as it will never work from an economic stand point (the world is full of countries waiting to join the PIGGS and for some reason the EU wants to invite em in - V Strange) but fron my personal outlook its great coz I can work all over. |
Whether the EU as a political body was a good idea can be debated for both sides; but to say that Eurozone was a stupid idea is absolutely ridiculous. How is a free-trade pact a stupid idea? Seeing as we're on about finance I can only assume you are talking about Eurozone. And it obviously is working from an economic stand point.. beacuse even though some of its members economics aren't holding up too well, they seem to be coping better than great old (poor) britain.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| Timmaah wrote: |
| Whether the EU as a political body was a good idea can be debated for both sides; but to say that Eurozone was a stupid idea is absolutely ridiculous. How is a free-trade pact a stupid idea? Seeing as we're on about finance I can only assume you are talking about Eurozone. And it obviously is working from an economic stand point.. beacuse even though some of its members economics aren't holding up too well, they seem to be coping better than great old (poor) britain. |
Ok can I just point another “fact”, I know sod all about economics (I teach skiing and guide stuff around the world and also do a bit of supply teaching in applied physics) so everything I say may be total boll ocks. But like most men who are well into their Clarkson period and moving rapidly towards their Meldrew, I have an opinion.
I am old enough to remember that the EEC was meant to be just a free trade zone. Now this seems to be a good idea (to me). But then you have 2 things that spoiled the whole thing.
1st you had to have people to run the new EEC and as in Europe it is political parties that run each country, they sent their own people along to run it. Hey presto you have politicians running the whole show. What does this mean? Well to me it means that the Empire Building mentality came in (as that is just the nature of politics) "very" quicky, and this, inevitably, meant increasing the size of the EEC. But as most of the reliable economies had already been invited, other countries whose economies simply weren’t up to the job were allowed in – with very obvious befits to the new members. The obvious outcome of this (well not obvious to politicians apparently) was that money started flowing from certain parts of the EU (stopped being the EEC by now) to other bits. The rich paying to jack up the poor. No European countries’ economies can keep paying out to run another country. So, IMO the EU just isn’t financially viable.
2nd was that everything was ticking alone nicely, whilst the world was in a bear market but as soon as the going gets tuff, the normal nationalistic tendency of protectionism steps in. The rich counties take steps to keep their own population “in the manner to which they have become accustomed” and this leads to splits in EU. There is no way IMO that the EU was ever going to cope with a down turn, as we have now. Whilst most of the richer countries could probably ride out the storm, the continued political desire to prop up the poor countries (that are poor for a reason BTW) will inevitably drag down the whole show.
So, the sum result of this is that the UK, with a banking and service based economy was hit hard and fast when the (banking) downturn started. But this will I think (eventually) be seen as just a slight blip when compared, medium term, to the EU’s desperate, and ultimately futile attempts to shore up an artificial pan-country economy. So the Pound dives first, the Euro just sinks slowly very quickly dropping below the Pound. This doesn’t mean that the Pound is raising, it just mean the Euro is dropping lower.
QED, my beer in Mallorca in the summer may cost more but my beer in Italy next year will be back to normal.
OMG – I know I shouldn't do this (as very simple to dis-prove in a few months), but here you go. I recon 1.25 by the end of the end of the year. If it doesn’t stay there it won’t matter as it only needs to b at this rate this for a split second as we have an option to purchase a forward at 1.25 on 1.5 million Euros.
Here endith the 1st lesson according to me which, as I said may be a complete load of cr*p. 
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add to this the fact that the EU has acted way to slow to try and help the EU economy compared to the UK, then 1.25 seems quite conservative. The UK will be out of this a long time before the EU.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| davejsy wrote: |
| The UK will be out of this a long time before the EU. |
sometime around 2030-2035 according to newsnight last night.
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good job the currency traders don't appear to watch newsnight then
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Wayne, all your points can scale up to the global economy or scale down to each end of [insert mid-length motorway or trunk road here]. In the short term the poor are perceived to sponge off the rich, but if in the long term the povery gap narrows then everyone benefits. On a local scale crime is reduced and the burden of benefits is relieved. On a European scale, the risk of war and political oppression are reduced. All worthy end goals which serve capitalist and social democrat the same.
Edit: text got lost on first two attempts
Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Fri 22-05-09 12:27; edited 2 times in total
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Blimey, red 27, looks heavy going. Have you read it?
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| andyph wrote: |
| In the short term the poor are perceived to sponge off the rich, but if in the long term the poverty gap narrows then everyone benefits. |
Will never happen. The rich will get richer and the poor will get poorer
| andyph wrote: |
| On a local scale crime is reduced and the burden of benefits is relieved. |
No, you get a different type of crime
| andyph wrote: |
| On a European scale, the risk of war and political oppression are reduced. |
Hmmmmmmmmm. Was there really a risk of war anyway or was this just a trite and glib remark by some politicians trying to justify their role by citing past wars.
| andyph wrote: |
| All worthy end goals which serve capitalist and social democrat the same. |
Not really. The people who gain the most from capitalism are those higher up the pecking order and the ones that benefit (and shout for the most) from so called social democracy are those that contribute the least - OMG
Basically IMO capitalism and social democracy are mutually incompatible. One system works and one doesn't, well it never has, in the long term, for the whole of previous human history. So what do you think we are going to end up with ?
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Go for it, Wayne.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Liberal democracy.
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Wayne, I think your first post got its bulls and bears mixed up, however your point about the EU structure not being able to handle a big down turn is very valid.
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You know it makes sense.
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| riverman wrote: |
| Wayne, I think your first post got its bulls and bears mixed up, however your point about the EU structure not being able to handle a big down turn is very valid. |
Like I said, I know sod all about this stuff so most probably wrong anyway 
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Lets delete this thread and talk about skiing
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Poster: A snowHead
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andyph, it is... but for something written 10 years ago it's impressive. The basic message is that our rush to an american style free-market has screwed society for ever and there's no going back! 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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andyph, c. Wolfie Smith of the Tooting Popular Front - am i right?
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red 27, Power to the People! So long as they're wearing a nice suit and tie! 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Up to 1.153, hasn't been that high since December. Let's hope the improvement continues.
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Now at 1.16, slow but sure rise. Up 10% on where it was a couple of months ago.
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Switzerland just gone into recession apparently. Presumably that will mean a bit of extra Franc value for our precious Sterling as well.
Excellent, Smithers.
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| Wayne wrote: |
| Basically IMO capitalism and social democracy are mutually incompatible. One system works and one doesn't, well it never has, in the long term, for the whole of previous human history. So what do you think we are going to end up with ? |
You would need to define what you mean by both terms and elaborate.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Today Sterling fell against the Euro & Dollar.
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stanton, thought you might be on this thread, watching, waiting.... 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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stanton,
No it's not - back above 1.14 after a low point below 1.13.
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If Gordon Brown resigns the pound will be back to €1.40!
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You know it makes sense.
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Big (untrue) roumour yesterday that some yank bank had dumped 5billion into $
That and waiting to see if that idiot chancellor would get what he deservers. Last night the yanks and the Japanese dumped £'s when they thought Brown was on the way out - not that he is any good just the any form of political instability is seen as bad.
The risk aversion seen for the past 3 months is still there but not as much, so some people are now prepared to take "small" risks (with the money we lent them) and sell $'s for £'s - the € is doing sod all so gets dumped as no poss. of profit taking. Which, at the end of the day is what currency traders are interested in
£ will go back up again in next few days -
1.2 soon, after which, who knows
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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This is quite telling!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Oh splendid 
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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I remember last autumn lots of folk going on about how the sky wa going to fall in and the UK was a basket case.....well looks as though the worst maybe over and we are about to pull out of the down turn, I feel slightly vindicated
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Now over 1.18€ to the £, highest since about last November. That 5.5€ pint is now a bargain at £4.66.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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I reckon it will stabalize at around 1.20-1.25 mark
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1.18761 now
15% up this year so "if" it keeps going at the same rate £1 = €1.35 by the end of the year ?
But who knows 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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stanton, oh my God!
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FAQ
