Excessively high prices for 2022?!

A snowHead

Greenday - I think you are right in respect of the complexity of the factors which will emerge from pandemic.

- operators who have gone out of business (reduced supply)
- massive family savings - bigger than previous episodes of arrested consumption (funds for vacation available)
- government wanting a lot of revenue to pay for pandemic by raising taxes (hitting family savings)
- capacity for domestic vacation increasing during pandemic (air b&b prices escalating in england)
- increased complexity in managing continental vacations (Brexit-related complexity in insurance etc)
- changing work patterns due to pandemic and accumulated holiday entitlement (use it for skiing)
- employers demanding commitment from employees as the economy opens again (reduced time for skiing)

And so on. As with most things to do with pandemic, what is true this week could be false next week. Objectively, many people have accumulated savings. And government wants its money back.

Oh...small point. What if immunity from the vaccine only lasts a few weeks? Most virus’ become more transmittable but less deadly over time ... we will just have to see HOW LONG all this lasts...time will tell I am afraid.....time to invest in the vaccine companies if we all need 2-monthly vaccinations

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@Mr.Egg, Very possibly for those people who are happy to DIY and book all the separate components themselves.

Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.

Is the actual demand significantly higher for next year.

The people who would ski this year (and can't), would most likely ski next year too.

Where is the EXTRA demand?

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Perhaps some tour operators are cashing in on people's desperation to book something, to book ANYTHING. Low deposits will lure people in and improve their cash flow. The ski industry had not been doing particularly well before the pandemic. The suggestion that 1 - 2 seasons of people not being able to ski at all will create bonanza conditions seems far-fetched to me.

After all it is free

Reports that bookings by the over-50s have surged in the last few weeks. How much longer will I be able to restrain myself from signing up for a "Call the Midwife" coach tour? Cost no object. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55654127

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I've mentioned my reasons over a number of threads for not booking for this season and right now I'm thinking the same for next.

The 'Central Committee' as I now call them (Prime and First Ministers and their various Health/Science apparatchiks) have on a few occasions now seemed to 'accidentally' mention that restrictions may/will/could possibly be needed next winter and although there is always some immediate degree of outcry about it that they then follow up with a subsequent explanation or expansion of what they meant, there is never quite a full retraction.

I don't believe for a minute that these folks are simply thinking aloud but instead are deliberately placing clues for the purposes of expectation management. They might be right to do that, I accept that folks opinions will differ on that very point but its enough to put me off booking until things are much clearer. Which probably means well into the summer at least.

If that means I have to pay more then so be it. As long as its what I define as a holiday - i.e. I can do as I please when I please as long as it's within the long established laws, rules and conventions that we have observed all through our lives.

As I've said before I'm not paying ski holiday money to do Butlins on snow. Especially in an FFP2 mask!

You know it makes sense.

Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

A snowHead

A snowHead

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@abc, ...particularly when it will be seen as massively unfair that the vaccinated elderly will be able to travel months before the unvaccinated younger generations-who are, don't forget, those hardest hit economically by lockdowns. Would feel like kicking the youngsters whilst they're down....

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No price hike from the very helpful Hotel Victoria in Verbier , very understanding very polite , simply transferred our 21 booking to revised Feb half term dates in 22 at no extra cost ......inflation beating and exemplary standards of customer service

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I think one of the biggest reasons is that there is less on the market from the tour operators so those who are really wanting to go away next year and want to get something booked up are going to mean that there is a decent demand for the limited places available.

I would not be surprised if everything went well in the world into the summer / vaccinations etc that we will see the tour operators putting back on many of the places they previously had. I realise many of these are normally rented for the season well in advanced but I think it will be different this year - landlord's will be happy to get any money in so suspect they will be happy to leases at short notice.

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Bear in mind that the number of physical beds available is no less than it is currently. Most owners and agencies don't usually take bookings until the current season is over. But the big tour operators have a problem, because their model is to block-book accommodation now for the following year. But no one is interested in doing that because of COVID uncertainty - what chalet/hotel/apartment owner or agency wants a repeat of the whole cycle of indecision and uncertainty around /cancellations/refunds that they had this season? So I imagine that yes, there's a genuine shortage of accommodation for any TO who wants to market now, but come the summer/autumn the situation will be much clearer. At which point things will either be back to normal or owners will actually be desperate to fill empty beds.

A long-winded way of saying that I don't see the merit of paying a massive premium to book now.

After all it is free

Further to previous I had a look. A Crystal Ski package to a hotel I stayed in in Obergurgl is currently less than I paid for the same hotel in the same January week in 2018. So prices are certainly not higher -yet!

I'm now wondering whether to book now and lock in that price. £100 deposit each until late October with full protection if it all goes tatas skyward again?

A lot of currently closed hotels haven't bothered to put next years availability and prices onto the likes of booking,com yet. once they know they can open and demand is there they will update the rest of 2021 and 2022 with it. A lot of the tourist industry is on furlough or equivalent, hence supply looks like it isnt there, but it will be in due course. Its a bit like Swiss and Austria hotels, confirming Xmas and half-term bookings (and other weeks for that matter) for "regular" guests before opening it out to the general public. A lot of accommodation doesn't book more than a year ahead in normal year.

re overall demand, there will be broadly the same amount of "people who go on a ski holiday" in 2022 as there was in previous years, and people won't be going twice at the peak weeks, which s what really drives the prices. Yes some may have an extra weekend break or whatever, but it isn't a question of "everyone's missed out this year so there will be twice as much demand next year"

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As a group stayed in the same chalet in la Plagne in 2018 and 2019, mid Feb both times ca £6-700pp inc transfers from Geneva. This year same place mid/late Jan £895 pp and no transfers included so we went elsewhere as that's about £300pp more. However, looked online the Chalet is just about booked up so some people are happy to pay that. Guessing that the combination of Covid and Brexit has had big impact on them.

We've booked late Jan in Madonna di Campiglio with Crystal £800pp half board, flights and transfer but got the last 3 rooms in the preferred hotel. Went for a package for extra consumer protection. The hotel was already full for the first two weeks in Feb so as price seemed fair we felt it was best to book now. I'd guess that was a similar price to last year.

We're also looking at DIY self catering in Corvara early Feb 2022. Apartments are either full/almost full but as mentioned above a few haven't released their rooms yet. The place we stayed in 2020 released their rooms last week, it was a very similar price but they hardly have any availability, no doubt carry overs from last year plus early bookings. FYI, found it was better to go via the local websites rather than booking.com as some places obviously just use the latter to fill empty rooms so you could get availability from e.g. the alta badia website when booking.com was showing as having none (IIRC booking.com charge ca 15%+VAT and have strict rules about pricing to try to prevent places using them for free advertising then offering e.g. a 10% discount on their own website).

So from direct(ish) comparisons 1 out of 3 big increase, 2 out of 3 pretty similar price but booking up very early.

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I suspect some booking websites, like flight sellers (and perhaps also some accommodation providers) like to deliberately engender an indication of low availability / high demand. E.g. say "last few rooms available" but leave out "(at this price, and by the way we've only released 6 rooms so far; we're keeping back the other 44 to release them slowly and maximise our income)".

Clearly not everyone does it, but I am sure plenty do.

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You know it makes sense.

One reason to consider booking at this point (and a reason I've re-started making travel bookings in recent weeks) is that the current very flexible policies may not last much longer. e.g. at the moment, a basic BA ticket has the kind of flexibility that would normally require paying 3-10x the price.

At some point in the next few months, I expect the travel industry to revert to more traditional policies. There's some early signs of this with new fare types that BA has just released to the travel trade, which require passengers to pay for the potential flexibility that is currently free.

Having a bunch of flights in the bag under this seasons cancellation/refund policies, but for next season, could prove very beneficial. £100 return flights London-Geneva for any date you choose won't be hanging around long.

Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

A snowHead

A snowHead

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@mountainaddict, The problem most employers will have with carried forward leave will be logistical. They cannot effectively, let everyone take, what could be double leave at the normal busy times. Just not enough weeks in the year. They will have to be able to insist that some is taken outside peak times, or they will simply cease to operate for weeks at a time.

Most employment contracts stipulate how much, if any, leave can be carried forward. and for how long. The same rules ought mostly to have been applied in the last year, even if working from home.

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@Bergmeister, jump in an ice bath a certain member of your body will show you

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Some decent priced large chalets if you look hard enough & the group is big enough.
Most of the ones I have found usually turn up on the catered chalets sites for previous years.

After all it is free

Yes the leave policy at my work is unchanged. Only allowed to carry forward 5 days and it must be used within 2 months of the new leave cycle.

I can’t imagine many employers allowing people to carry forward as mush as they want.

I think a fair few people have let this year’s holiday money stay either with the operators or stashed away, and therefore can have two holidays for the price of one “seemingly”.
I booked with peak retreats, paid in full and have moved booking to next year, leaving them with my 1k paid in the hopes that they survive. I know I could get £4.50 interest but I would rather help them keep in business.
Also next year we can have (hopefully) most meals out and not have to worry about finances!

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Excessively high prices for 2022?!

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