 Poster: A snowHead
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@cameronphillips2000, Given that despite ever more restrictive rules cases in Europe are surging up I fear you are right.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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infections rates are at average 22k in the uk..death rates at average 150...which is less than the normal excess death rate ....death rates seem to be glossed over, the excess death rate that was being touted 4 months ago is well forgotten....so for me im going out sking if the lifts are working as not sure what the problem is at the moment, as information seems to be being modified or surpressed to suit ..lets all just go skiing..i've just bought new skies as well ...
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| yorkshirelad wrote: |
| ..i've just bought new skies as well ... |
Blue ones I trust? 
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| yorkshirelad wrote: |
| infections rates are at average 22k in the uk..death rates at average 150...which is less than the normal excess death rate ....death rates seem to be glossed over, the excess death rate that was being touted 4 months ago is well forgotten....so for me im going out sking if the lifts are working as not sure what the problem is at the moment, as information seems to be being modified or surpressed to suit ..lets all just go skiing..i've just bought new skies as well ... |
How are you defining "excess death rate"?
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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| cameronphillips2000 wrote: |
It is only October.
To imagine that ski resorts will be open on January is pure fantasy.
Sorry, but true. |
I think this is very likely the case sadly. A bunch of operating rules devised when the virus was on the downturn and even then seemingly counterinuitive in places (the statement in Austria that operating capacity would be reduced on (enclosed) lifts but only when the lifts were not busy) run up against the reality of skiing being perceived as a discretionary activity for the well off (and hence an "easy political sacrifice). Of course there is a rather more severe impact economically on the affected communities.
Pre season in Cervinia is a very niche activity but where valley access is by cable car or gondola you simply can't avoid queues and crowding in any resort. It pisses me off that local governments haven't put in place collaborative plans with resorts to have something that looks more respectful of national measures even though I know a lot of that is optics rather than objective risk. Because optics will get stuff shut down like we've just seen in Italy.
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@yorkshirelad, whilst you are correct in part, no doubt there is an element of over reaction based on simple numbers. However there are some concerning issues, the number of positive tests (France is reporting nearly 17% positive tests when the ideal is under 5% really should be 1 - 2%, plenty of other examples) and the growing numbers in intensive care units (these are not at the levels seen in the spring but still growing, no one wants to see a repeat of some of those scenes). I am not convinced many of the measures being taken make any difference and are simply because politicians feel a need to be seen "doing something" but at the same time there is a need to reduce the number of human interactions taking place in enclosed environments. It is also becoming apparent that one or more vaccines are very likely to arrive in the near future which will make a huge difference, probably too late for new year skiing though.
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| Dave of the Marmottes wrote: |
| cameronphillips2000 wrote: |
It is only October.
To imagine that ski resorts will be open on January is pure fantasy.
Sorry, but true. |
I think this is very likely the case sadly. A bunch of operating rules devised when the virus was on the downturn and even then seemingly counterinuitive in places (the statement in Austria that operating capacity would be reduced on (enclosed) lifts but only when the lifts were not busy) run up against the reality of skiing being perceived as a discretionary activity for the well off (and hence an "easy political sacrifice). Of course there is a rather more severe impact economically on the affected communities.
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This is the point I was trying to make last night but not verbalizing as well as this.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| yorkshirelad wrote: |
| infections rates are at average 22k in the uk..death rates at average 150...which is less than the normal excess death rate ....death rates seem to be glossed over, the excess death rate that was being touted 4 months ago is well forgotten....so for me im going out sking if the lifts are working as not sure what the problem is at the moment, as information seems to be being modified or surpressed to suit ..lets all just go skiing..i've just bought new skies as well ... |
2 weeks ago infections was 5k, so deaths could well be 500+ By bonfire night
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Excess dewath rate as per NOS. Widely availble.. Its running at the same as last year.. Just saying.
Trying my new skis out next week
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| yorkshirelad wrote: |
Excess dewath rate as per NOS. Widely availble.. Its running at the same as last year.. Just saying.
Trying my new skis out next week |
It's actually slightly higher than last year but there isn't much difference w/e 18th Oct-19 = 10,156 and w/e 16-Oct-20 = 10,534, so this year is ca. 4% higher. (see below for 5 yr comparison)
However, deaths due to Covid typically lag 3-4 weeks behind a case being identified so data wise these deaths probably relate to positive tests in Mid Sept. Looking at w/e 25th Sept according to the ONS there were 37,301 positive tests, we are now running at 250k positive test pw so extrapolating by the late November we could be heading back towards 1,000 Covid deaths a day (250k/37k *670 = ca 4,500 deaths pw). This is ca 50% above the 5 year average for excess deaths.
So, at this rate we could see 100k excess deaths this Autumn/winter.
For anyone who is interested the latest ONS data for weekly deaths (w/e 16th Oct which is the latest as of 29th Oct) is here
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending16october2020
first points from summary
"The number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 16 October 2020 (Week 42) was 10,534; this was 580 more deaths than in Week 41.
In Week 42, the number of deaths registered was 6.8% above the five-year average (669 deaths higher).
Of the deaths registered in Week 42, 670 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, accounting for 6.4% of all deaths in England and Wales; this is an increase of 232 deaths compared with Week 41 (when there were 438 deaths involving COVID-19, accounting for 4.4% of all deaths)."
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| cameronphillips2000 wrote: |
It is only October.
To imagine that ski resorts will be open on January is pure fantasy.
Sorry, but true. |
just had a chat with a couple of my Italian colleagues so I asked whether either of them expected ski resorts to be open this season, neither do. Evidently the message to them from government is to expect further restrictions not easing.
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| munich_irish wrote: |
| It is also becoming apparent that one or more vaccines are very likely to arrive in the near future which will make a huge difference, probably too late for new year skiing though. |
That's a crucial point.
If you BELIEVE a vaccine will become available starting early next year (mid-winter), then imposing restriction to keep a lid on the infection and death will be quite helpful in the ultimate outcome.
However, if you DON'T BELIEVE any vaccine will be available any time next year, there's a real chance the economy will collapse before that. We may be more likely to die of wars and riots.
Of course there's the middle ground that some form of limited amount of vaccine with low efficacy may become available soon. Or effective therapeutic treatment become available through the 1st half of next year... Take your pick and act accordingly.
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You know it makes sense.
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| yorkshirelad wrote: |
| infections rates are at average 22k in the uk..death rates at average 150...which is less than the normal excess death rate ....death rates seem to be glossed over, the excess death rate that was being touted 4 months ago is well forgotten....so for me im going out sking if the lifts are working as not sure what the problem is at the moment, as information seems to be being modified or surpressed to suit ..lets all just go skiing..i've just bought new skies as well ... |
Covaids 'statistics' will not be stopping me either, stock up on proven effective solutions such as vitamin D and zinc if you are worried. The concern is nanny states interfering in living. What next, someone dies in an avalanche and no more skiing on powder days or if a resort has more than 20cm snowpack...
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@Peter Ross, gosh, I didn't realise there was such a simple solution. Have you told the scientists, Gov. and the NHS?
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Poster: A snowHead
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| Scarlet wrote: |
| MorningGory wrote: |
If the customers are spreading the virus then it is their fault  |
No, it's really not.
I haven't been following the situation or rules in Italy that closely, not beyond having a rough idea what's going on in Europe anyway. But as far as I can see, the rules being applied in ski areas are the same(ish) as in Austria, so I can comment on those as the thinking behind them is probable pretty similar. Cable cars/gondolas are classed as public transport and so the rules applied to them are the same as for buses and trains. Lifts have generally been at lower capacity all summer, just because the demand is lower, so crowding has not been a problem. However, people are crammed into buses at rush hour every weekday, but they have to wear masks so it is considered acceptable.
You can query how well masks work when crammed in like sardines, but as far as the govt is concerned, mask on = no virus 
There have been and will continue to be complaints, and people in countries where transport capacity has been reduced are shocked and scared. But you really cannot complain about the customers – this is how it is and how it has been all summer in certain situations.
Also, the massive increases in cases in Italy and elsewhere will not be because a ski lift or two suddenly opened and got busy. |
Amen Scarlet !
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| yorkshirelad wrote: |
Excess dewath rate as per NOS. Widely availble.. Its running at the same as last year.. Just saying.
Trying my new skis out next week |
Beating on a dead horse for the umpteenth time...
Repeat after me “it takes 3-4 weeks for a sick Covid patient to die”!
| Mr.Egg wrote: |
| yorkshirelad wrote: |
| infections rates are at average 22k in the uk..death rates at average 150...which is less than the normal excess death rate ....death rates seem to be glossed over, the excess death rate that was being touted 4 months ago is well forgotten....so for me im going out sking if the lifts are working as not sure what the problem is at the moment, as information seems to be being modified or surpressed to suit ..lets all just go skiing..i've just bought new skies as well ... |
2 weeks ago infections was 5k, so deaths could well be 500+ By bonfire night |
When you step on the brake, your car doesn’t stop on a dime. I continue to cruise for a good long while before coming to a stop. But no matter, you don’t have to hit the brake even when you see a big rock 200 yard ahead. You can wait till you’re 2 yard from the rock before you brake...
Or... you didn’t see the rock clearly. You thought it was just tumble weed that will do no harm? So why break so early when you can instead wait till it’s too late...?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@abc, the death rate very much depends in who's getting it though does it not? current spike if you're to listen to the accusers is down to students. They're unlikely to die. Who knows only time will tell.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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I got this message from my Hotelier friend in the Val di Fassa on the 29th Oct .. " Noi tutto ok siamo chiusi e aspettiamo le nuove disposizioni per
l’apertura di quest’inverno. " "We all ok are closed and await the new provisions for the opening of this winter."
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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The Guardian are reporting 4 areas of Italy, including the Aosta Valley are going into lockdown from Friday.
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F&CK!
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Aosta indefinite lockdown 
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Italy have now announced a tiered system red/orange/yellow where red is effectively lockdown.
These areas are red Calabria, Lombardia, Piemonte e Val d'Aosta
Provincia di Trento e Bolzano is yellow (lowest) which probably contains some ski areas but still has significant restrictions until at least 3rd December, see below. In short no skiing at the moment.
https://www.rainews.it/dl/rainews/articoli/Lotta-alla-pandemia-Italia-divisa-in-tre-zone-gialla-arancione-e-rossa-dpcm-in-vigore-domani-6-novemre-fino-3-dicembre-f3a06c41-280c-4683-b5fa-476ed1596510.html
Yellow -
It is forbidden to circulate from 10 pm to 5 am, unless proven reasons of work, necessity and health. Recommendation not to move except for reasons of health, work, study, situations of need. Closing of shopping centers on holidays and days before holidays with the exception of pharmacies, parapharmacies, food outlets, tobacconists and newsagents inside them. Closing of museums and exhibitions. Distance learning for high schools, except for students with disabilities and in case of use of laboratories; face-to-face teaching for preschools, elementary schools and middle schools. Universities closed, except for some activities for freshmen and laboratories. Up to 50% reduction on public transport, except for school transport. Suspension of arcade, betting, bingo and slot machine activities also in bars and tobacconists. Bars and restaurants close at 6 pm. Take-away is allowed until 10 pm. There are no restrictions for home delivery. Swimming pools, gyms, theaters and cinemas remain closed. Sports centers remain open.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@extremerob, if you drive a car without a searbelt, then go through the windscreen, then the physical impact of that descision is yours, true, but the financial impact is on everyone else, the health services, the emergency services, the insurers, customers of the insurers, etc etc. I see alot of the rules on covid as not being about the individual, but about collective society. I think that's what alot of these rules are about. Or am I wrong?
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| munich_irish wrote: |
| @yorkshirelad, It is also becoming apparent that one or more vaccines are very likely to arrive in the near future which will make a huge difference, probably too late for new year skiing though. |
So having worked in the pharma industry for 20+ years and having spoken to a friend who may happen to be involved somewhere in process for deploying a Covid vaccine....
I think the most likely scenario is a vaccine is approved for use early 2021 but production limitations mean there are insufficient doses for everyone, multiple vaccines from different companies will follow over 2021 so by later in the year there should be a number of options and vaccines will be widely available by end 2021. Some will be more effective than others, some will be easier to distribute than others, some will have less side effects than others so by 2022 a couple will become preferred options. All will require annual boosters, just like the flu vaccine so the first tranche of front line workers may receive a vaccine in e.g. March but will require another in Sept/Oct, this is important as you may hear that x million does have been purchased but it means that less people than this will receive a vaccination.
Doses have been pre-purchased by certain countries so just because a vaccine is approved in your country it doesn't mean it is widely available. It will be prioritised based upon who was the first government to stump up the cash for a specific number of doses and then governments will obviously prioritise, evidently in the UK front line workers are at the head of the queue.
Personally I don't expect to be vaccinated until late 2021, I do expect ski resorts etc to be fully open for the 2021/22 season. There may still be some restrictions whilst we work out just how effective the vaccinations programmes are. I expect summer 2022 to have similar restrictions to 2021 but hope I'm wrong, I don't see vaccines having a big impact on the pandemic this winter due to the limited number of doses that will be available, maybe later in the season we'll see things relaxed a bit.
If anyone in interested there are currently various challenges which the general public may not necessarily be aware of
1) At least one of the front runners is (was ?) not very stable so the vaccine had to be kept at minus 70 deg C, this is well below the temperature of a standard fridge or freezer so makes distribution a major problem. How do you get this out to the community ? transport and storage become a big issue. The company will be looking at how to make the doses more stable. This could be approved so governments can say 'we have a vaccine' but have limited use for the general public. The ideal vaccine will be stable enough to be put on a normal (or refrigerated) truck, to be able to spend 24 hrs in an aeroplane, to be left on the hot tarmac in e.g. Texas for a few hours, to be sent to doctors surgeries etc and we'd still have 100 % confidence that it's good for use.
2) you may have a vaccine that trials show is pretty effective with one dose but more effective with 2 doses. So let's say the UK government has purchased 2 million doses, do they cover 1 million "well" or 2 million people "ok" ? there is currently little data to base that decision on (I guess more people less well though)
3) During trials for one of the front runners 70% of participants reported some kind of side effect - so maybe this particular vaccine isn't suitable for people with certain health conditions, maybe these are the same people who need a vaccine the most.
4) Scale-up - it may be easy to make 1k or 10k doses a day but what about 1m, 10m ? the volumes and timescales are unprecedented. At least one company has pre-sold 1 billion doses for next year, can they reliably make these ? it's never been done before.
5) wider impact on vaccines - so creating new facilities for producing new pharmaceutical products normally takes years and costs many 10s of millions (used to do this for a living), Governments have pre-purchased doses to provide the funds for this but it's most likely that what is happening is facilities used to make an existing vaccine are being changed to Covid vaccines. At some point the existing vaccines will also be needed so it could take a couple of years to have a reliable supply of the full portfolio of vaccines.
Best case - there are multiple effective vaccines from different companies giving reliable supply, these are stable so can be easily distributed and little side effects. (I'd bet on this from 2022)
Worst case - only a small number of companies can produce an effective vaccine, it is difficult to produce, is not very stable and a significant proportion of people have side effects. (Possible for the first vaccines that hit the market but hopefully not)
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@richb67, Thanks, that interesting insight. One thing I would add to this:
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| this is important as you may hear that x million does have been purchased but it means that less people than this will receive a vaccination. |
In Europe, the quotas are given per person rather than per dose, so for example, Austria will get 2% of the European group purchase (because that is the ratio to the whole population), which (I think, can't remember exactly) amounts to 2 million people vaccinated in the first batch, regardless of whether they need one, two or more doses each. That may not be the case with Tory govt spin though, so you definitely have a point!
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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I'm going to stick my head above the parapet here and ask what is probably a couple of very stupid questions. I'm not the brightest bulb on the Christmas tree so forgive my ignorance. Would you still need to be vaccinated even if you've have had CV-19, by which I mean a positive test and would you need to be antibody tested before you have the vaccine even if you've never tested positive. I understand that you probably have limited immunity to it and it wanes over time, as in normal seasonal flu? Are there any potential known side effects following vaccination against disease you've already had? Que the eye rolling
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More than possible that something gets cocked up in the UK as the "political" number of doses gets confused with patients and stock levels
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You know it makes sense.
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| wishfulthinker wrote: |
| I'm going to stick my head above the parapet here and ask what is probably a couple of very stupid questions. I'm not the brightest bulb on the Christmas tree so forgive my ignorance. Would you still need to be vaccinated even if you've have had CV-19, by which I mean a positive test and would you need to be antibody tested before you have the vaccine even if you've never tested positive. I understand that you probably have limited immunity to it and it wanes over time, as in normal seasonal flu? Are there any potential known side effects following vaccination against disease you've already had? Que the eye rolling |
This is NOT a stupid question. The data so far suggests that your Covid antibodies will decrease quite quickly, maybe over 3 -6 months. So yes you would need an immunisation even if you've had Covid.
Different diseases have different vaccine requirements so if you had measles as a kid you are immune because the measle antibodies stay in your system. Unfortunately Covid doesn't work like this.
So e.g. Polio vaccine, antibodies last for life have vaccine once all good. Tetanus vaccine, antibodies last a few years so only need a vaccine booster ever now and again to give you more antibodies. Flu vaccine(s) antibodies last a few months so need annual vaccine just before flu season (flu is a bit more complex but that's irrelevant re your question).
Caveat - this disease has been around for only about a year so there has only been one 'Covid season' and there still isn't a lot of data to go on.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@richb67, Glad I asked now. Thanks for the explanation. One more question. Does this mean that in the future you are likely to require two different flu vaccinations i.e. one for 'normal' seasonal flu and one for CV-19 every year?
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Poster: A snowHead
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| wishfulthinker wrote: |
| @richb67, Glad I asked now. Thanks for the explanation. One more question. Does this mean that in the future you are likely to require two different flu vaccinations i.e. one for 'normal' seasonal flu and one for CV-19 every year? |
The Covid one wouldn't be a flu vaccine 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@richb67, what about T-cell mediated immunity? I guess "we" don't know enough yet.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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I'm sure I read (BBC probs) that one vaccine (Oxford trial?) is already being produced and has been for some weeks, on the assumption it's a goer, so there will be a decent number of doses available from day 1..
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| wishfulthinker wrote: |
| @richb67, Glad I asked now. Thanks for the explanation. One more question. Does this mean that in the future you are likely to require two different flu vaccinations i.e. one for 'normal' seasonal flu and one for CV-19 every year? |
Caveat - vaccines aren't in my area of experience or expertise so someone with better knowledge may add or correct this
The current flu vaccine is actually a mix of vaccines for different strains of flu. Each year the flu works around the globe so the strains in Australia and Asia in their winter usually end up hitting the UK in our winter. So we analyse the flu strains in Australia and vaccinate for those specific vaccines. Sometimes a different flu strain crops up along the way and that can be when we have a bad year.
So, pure guesswork, but I'd suggest that companies will look at having a combined vaccine but this is likely to be a few years away. They will need to show safety and efficacy of the Covid vaccine before they start mixing it with lots of other vaccines. Also, IIRC some flu vaccines are taken via a nasal spray so that would be a new formulation for the covid vaccine, more time, more money, more tests etc (I'm assuming the initial covid vaccine is an injection but could be wrong, I'll try and remember to ask someone). I'd imagine that the first company to come up with a simple nasal spray that covers flu and covid would be on to a commercial winner so if it's possible someone will be investigating, there's a lot of money involved. At the moment the concern is less about money and more about safety and kudos. (governments are effectively funding this).
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@wishfulthinker, as @sugarmoma666, says, covid isn't a 'flu, so there's be two vaccines you might want.
But (and this is only what I've read around and about) as @richb67 nicely explains, there's an annual 'flu vaccine because it's usually a different/set of 'flu(s) each year, whereas (so far) SARS-2 is only one virus and I have read chatter that some covid vaccines might be built that give you long term immunity. To be seen.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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| MorningGory wrote: |
| I'm sure I read (BBC probs) that one vaccine (Oxford trial?) is already being produced and has been for some weeks, on the assumption it's a goer, so there will be a decent number of doses available from day 1.. |
absolutely, there will be a few in production but there is demand for 6 billion doses  and actually you need to get your production facility up and running before you ask for approval so it's not news that they are doing this, the trial vaccines have to come from somewhere (I used to be involved in that process). FYI the regulatory body is approving not just the product but also the way it's made and the facility that it's made in. So if you need to increase capacity and build a new facility that new facility needs a separate approval. This is all to make sure that the patient receives a "safe" medicine exactly as it should be every single time. Of course some countries have lower standards than others so don't get excited if Russia approve a vaccine but do if the USA or EU does.
fyi, IIRC the Oxford vaccine is the one that reported 70% side affects in the (I think) phase 2 trials (these will range from "I have a sore arm where I was injected" to "I've just been diagnosed with cancer", the latter clearly being unrelated to the trial but it's still counted and will take time to investigate). UK, US, EU have pre-purchased doses and I believe that is funding the trials and building of a new production facility.
If I put my optimistic hat on and the first vaccine is effective, approved by xmas and easy to produce then everything could move much quicker than I stated above. At the end of the day it's just personal opinion based on what I think is most likely. No-one knows.
These are unusual times under normal circumstances it can take over a year to get a product approved ie once the trials are finished it normally takes months to collate the data, this is then sent to the regulatory body and from this point to being given the green light can take a year or more. I understand that one company is expecting an expedited approval process to take ca 3 months, I assume they've been given this timescale by the regulatory body. For comparison I think it took 5 years to develop an Ebola vaccine and get it approved in the EU and that was fast track ! I assume that the Oxford team have special access to the regulatory body but at the end of the day the trial will end on a certain day, 10k people will still be undergoing testing right up until that day and the data analysis will take some time, there are only so many corners that can be cut.
sorry to take this off topic but I see so much rubbish talked about the vaccine programme I thought it might be worthwhile posting some background.
Bringing this back to skiing is it possible that enough people will get vaccinated to allow ski resorts to open as usual January, well I'm gonna say not a chance ! but some will obviously be open with restrictions, will there be a vaccine widely enough available to allow restrictions to ease for March / April. Maybe, if all goes well.
Still on skiing, just got off the phone with a Swiss colleague, evidently some resorts are open but you have to book a time slot for the Gondola from the resort in advance and capacity is limited.
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I am on the Oxford trial and have had both injections ,,,I had no side effects from the 2nd and the first gave me a bit of a sore arm for a day or two ...I do know that it might have been the Menigitus vaccine ....they say they will tell me what I have had when the trial is finished
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| richb67 wrote: |
| MorningGory wrote: |
| I'm sure I read (BBC probs) that one vaccine (Oxford trial?) is already being produced and has been for some weeks, on the assumption it's a goer, so there will be a decent number of doses available from day 1.. |
absolutely, there will be a few in production but there is demand for 6 billion doses and actually you need to get your production facility up and running before you ask for approval so it's not news that they are doing this, the trial vaccines have to come from somewhere (I used to be involved in that process). FYI the regulatory body is approving not just the product but also the way it's made and the facility that it's made in. So if you need to increase capacity and build a new facility that new facility needs a separate approval. This is all to make sure that the patient receives a "safe" medicine exactly as it should be every single time. Of course some countries have lower standards than others so don't get excited if Russia approve a vaccine but do if the USA or EU does.
fyi, IIRC the Oxford vaccine is the one that reported 70% side affects in the (I think) phase 2 trials (these will range from "I have a sore arm where I was injected" to "I've just been diagnosed with cancer", the latter clearly being unrelated to the trial but it's still counted and will take time to investigate). UK, US, EU have pre-purchased doses and I believe that is funding the trials and building of a new production facility.
If I put my optimistic hat on and the first vaccine is effective, approved by xmas and easy to produce then everything could move much quicker than I stated above. At the end of the day it's just personal opinion based on what I think is most likely. No-one knows.
These are unusual times under normal circumstances it can take over a year to get a product approved ie once the trials are finished it normally takes months to collate the data, this is then sent to the regulatory body and from this point to being given the green light can take a year or more. I understand that one company is expecting an expedited approval process to take ca 3 months, I assume they've been given this timescale by the regulatory body. For comparison I think it took 5 years to develop an Ebola vaccine and get it approved in the EU and that was fast track ! I assume that the Oxford team have special access to the regulatory body but at the end of the day the trial will end on a certain day, 10k people will still be undergoing testing right up until that day and the data analysis will take some time, there are only so many corners that can be cut.
sorry to take this off topic but I see so much rubbish talked about the vaccine programme I thought it might be worthwhile posting some background.
Bringing this back to skiing is it possible that enough people will get vaccinated to allow ski resorts to open as usual January, well I'm gonna say not a chance ! but some will obviously be open with restrictions, will there be a vaccine widely enough available to allow restrictions to ease for March / April. Maybe, if all goes well.
Still on skiing, just got off the phone with a Swiss colleague, evidently some resorts are open but you have to book a time slot for the Gondola from the resort in advance and capacity is limited. |
Good insight. I’m from Oz so in a difference space but we’ve bought a few vaccines including the Oxford one that we’ll produce here.
I’ve written off the Northern Hemisphere winter for this year. Would you say it likely that season 21/22 will be a goer?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@richb67, thanks that was an interesting read
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