 Poster: A snowHead
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@noza, I live in Cumbria so know all about that, although luckily my town is not flooded and I'm on a bit of a hill.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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For what it's worth remember this “We never live; we are always in the expectation of living.” [Voltaire]
Looking at forecasts can be interesting even fun, but actually being out in the moutains is funner.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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How many days before snowmageddon last year (after Boxing Day)was it a 'done deal' that there would be snowmageddon
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@nozawaonsen, is it me or has tomorrows snow been upgraded a bit? 12z looking bit more interesting anyway....
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@notnats, a few of the guys (@stefoy4me and @Rob Mackley) had spotted something on 17 December. So nine days out.
I posted this on 18 December.
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| Recent runs on both GFS and ECM have been suggesting a cool down following Christmas Day. At present it looks like it would be considerable and sustained. But. Given that it's all in FI I would be pretty cautious about how long it might last, FI can tend to exagerate certain features. But it does look like colder weather may be on the way. Will it bring snow? It would do on the basis of current output, but you'd want to see that coming into high res and being sustained before you had confidence in it. |
It then went a bit quiet cropping up, but not consistently, until 22 December. At that point it started to build, but still wasn't really clear unitl about Christmas Eve. So it can be quite close in before it really develops (rather giving the lie to the idea that the snowfall amounts always reduce...)
Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Tue 8-12-15 19:22; edited 1 time in total
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@notnats, IIRC it was about 3-4 days before - I drove out to Austria on boxing day into the 27th so experienced the amount of snow - the "snowmageddon" word was termed because of the chaos rather than the actual amount of snow which was not abnormal (maybe 30-60cm on average with more in a few locations).
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Chamonix, three years ago today! Don't panic Mr Mannering.
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| Quote: |
How many days before snowmageddon last year (after Boxing Day)was it a 'done deal' that there would be snowmageddon
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IIRC the forecasts had shown the likelihood of snow for some days, with a substantial fall looking pretty certain the evening before. The snow started on cue, it wasn't a ridiculous amount (we had 30 cms which I think was quite widespread) and it started early morning, as predicted. So for the people who failed to pay attention and arrange to leave their resorts early in the morning, the chaos was entirely their own fault.
It was much harder for people coming in to resorts - I think all the autoroutes into the French alps were closed at one point.
The people saying that huge snowfall came out of the blue weren't paying attention.... it wasn't huge, and it had been accurately forecast.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Yeah, "snowmageddon" last year was more the fact that it snowed a bit on a very busy changeover day. And a changeover day after a long period of zero snow which meant people (foolishly) just weren't prepared. Jan 30, now that really was snowmageddon
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@bleudegex, but pretty awesome skiing the next day 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| Quote: |
Jan 30, now that really was snowmageddon
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I had to drive to Arabba, starting with pulling out of a snowdrift the car belonging to a Snowhead to whom I was giving a lift. He arrived on foot in a blizzard at 11 pm the night before, having abandoned the car and got a lift with a coincidental British couple who came along in a big 4WD. They wouldn't chance driving up our road which was more than knee deep, not been ploughed for a while, so the last bit was on foot.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@jbob, ah yes 3 years ago this week, at only 1200m in the very small resort of Hirmentaz, my old iphone 4 snapped this (no filters / editing applied)
If you look closely you'll see Big Bird from seasame st on top of the middle tree.....that's a weather pattern I'm looking out for on all the graphs, the Big Bird effect, dumps all over El Nino.
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Yeah 3 years ago I spent what seemed like most days in December and January digging my car out to get to work and then digging it in again in the evening. That was my first year living at the foot of the Jura and I've been slightly disappointed this hasn't proved to be the norm...
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You know it makes sense.
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Tuesday the 15th looks like a decent snowfall event.......sustained for a good few hours according to meteox, whom I followed closely 12 months ago ahead of snowmegedon which they do accurately forecast!!!!!
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Noza can you arrange it not to snow too much on the 22/12 as I will be driving to the Alps. Thank you.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Radar shows a fair bit more behind it up to 7pm which as far as it runs to today. Be interesting to see what tomorrow shows to. Still a week away though so much could change. Sweeps in from a westerly direction.... I guess the FL will be all important for snow. As long as it's above 1500m that suits
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@jbob, there's a nice new Ibis budget in Sallanches. Just let it snow, OK?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| stefoy4me wrote: |
| Tuesday the 15th looks like a decent snowfall event.......sustained for a good few hours according to meteox, whom I followed closely 12 months ago ahead of snowmegedon which they do accurately forecast!!!!! |
The 15th is still too far away to be predictable - still a crap shoot IMO
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Thanks for snowmageddon info. I have first hand experience of the event as it took us 43 hours to get back to London from tignes. I was interested in how long before the event it was obvious that there would be heavy snowfall
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Thanks Hiedi!!!!!!
Forget it folks...., bring your lawnmowers!!!!! Lol
Let's have a tad optimism...... Agreed it's a long way out but it's better than just showing a blocking high pressure system!!!
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Notnats........it was an ever revolving picture that firmed up say by day....xmas eve was when I tried to convince our group that an overnight in reims boxing night was worth ditching!!!!! We ended up to agreeing on a 3am start from reims.....I wanted to drive straight thru!!!!! But was voted down. Arrived Ste foy 24 hours later!!!!!!!!
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| notnats wrote: |
| Thanks for snowmageddon info. I have first hand experience of the event as it took us 43 hours to get back to London from tignes. I was interested in how long before the event it was obvious that there would be heavy snowfall |
I traveled back to London from Les Arcs. Was due to leave resort on snowmageddon day, but from the Tuesday prior to the Saturday I thought there was a good chance we would leave on Friday afternoon. The forecasts were increasingly certain of heavy snow starting early hours of Saturday morning, so on the Thursday morning I confirmed a hotel near Paris for us to drive to on the Friday night, avoiding the certainty of Saturday's chaos. Our total travel time was 12 hours, same a usual.
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I too was caught up in Snowmaggedon (until I aborted early and bagged a hotel room) - the two things that haven't been mentioned are the snow was preceded by freezing rain (rather tricky to forecast) around Albertville which caused havoc on the main route out of the Tarentaise together with a high number of clowns who later set off with no snow chains.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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So I go out at Christmas - nothing will change that even the lack of snow. What might change is whether I use my skis or whether I hire. If there are stones, mud patches etc... then I'll be risking the hire shop's not mine.
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| HeidiAmsterdam wrote: |
| stefoy4me wrote: |
| Tuesday the 15th looks like a decent snowfall event.......sustained for a good few hours according to meteox, whom I followed closely 12 months ago ahead of snowmegedon which they do accurately forecast!!!!! |
The 15th is still too far away to be predictable - still a crap shoot IMO |
But on several threads people have pointed out many locations where the snow, at least on the piste, is very good. Don't understand your lack of logic.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@emwmarine, crap shoot for new snow.
Certain areas have very decent conditions. That's a for sure thing.
Anyway, a bit of snow is welcomed by everyone - so much is clear. And everyone wants it before their ski holiday begins, and some of us begin early than others... I have 5 more sleeps.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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> How many days before snowmageddon last year (after Boxing Day)was it a 'done deal' that there would be snowmageddon
On Wednesday before snowmaggedon first talk of transfer day chaos:
stefoy4me Potential transfer day nightmare on Sunday.
a couple of hours later Ravelin specifically asks about Saturday but Rob says: In my experience the only time an access road has been closed is not because they can't clear it with snowploughs, but because the slopes directly above the road are avalanche prone and deemed unsafe.
all very reassuring followed by Chattonmill: The roads will be open.
later on Weds Noz says: Second heavier band reaches French and Swiss Alps on Saturday morning,
On Thurs pm philipb: I think we've moved on to worrying about the driving conditions!
Followed by this thread: http://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=115242
So first hints around Wednesday midday but no one forsaw the total lack of organisation on the day.
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| davidof wrote: |
| So first hints around Wednesday midday but no one forsaw the total lack of organisation on the day. |
All the information was available for several days in advance for those responsible for organising the local response. Obviously it would have been impossible for all the chaos to be avoided, but I think a better job could have been done, especially with regard to information flow, opening up emergency shelters, strictly enforcing regulations about winter equipment on cars and buses, etc. Self-drivers on the way out, like myself, had the information they needed to leave early and completely avoid the chaos, and inbound self-drivers, like chocksaway, had the information they needed to delay their arrival and book in to accommodation and at least spend the night in a bed rather than a car or a school hall.
As I understand it no roads were closed because the local authorities were unable to clear them of snow (as I suggested in the comment of mine that you quoted), but they became impassible because of the volume of traffic which were able to make progress in the snowy conditions. It only takes a very small number of cars or buses to make a road unusable if they are not equipped for driving in snowy conditions.
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You know it makes sense.
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| HeidiAmsterdam wrote: |
@emwmarine, crap shoot for new snow.
Certain areas have very decent conditions. That's a for sure thing.
Anyway, a bit of snow is welcomed by everyone - so much is clear. And everyone wants it before their ski holiday begins, and some of us begin early than others... I have 5 more sleeps. |
Head high. Last week I skied in Tignes, this week in Hintertux. Piste conditions range from mostly OK to excellent, with icy patches appearing later in the day on busy sections. Today was largely spent skiing perfect grippy snow in pleasant temperatures, in mostly sunny conditions.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| bleudegex wrote: |
| Yeah, "snowmageddon" last year was more the fact that it snowed a bit on a very busy changeover day. |
It was more than "a bit". I agree that it wasn't a record-breaking dump of fresh snow, but from what I can remember it was 30-40cm over a 24-hour period, falling to low altitudes. That's more than a bit.
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Poster: A snowHead
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| Quote: |
they became impassible because of the volume of traffic which were able to make progress in the snowy conditions. It only takes a very small number of cars or buses to make a road unusable if they are not equipped for driving in snowy conditions.
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And once there's a traffic jam the snowploughs can't get through anyway. A lot of people were moaning that they were stuck for hours with no food or drink.  Anyone on the road without adequate supplies, given the forecast and the fact that it was one of the busiest transfer days of the year, really had only themselves to blame.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| rob@rar wrote: |
As I understand it no roads were closed because the local authorities were unable to clear them of snow (as I suggested in the comment of mine that you quoted), but they became impassible because of the volume of traffic which were able to make progress in the snowy conditions. It only takes a very small number of cars or buses to make a road unusable if they are not equipped for driving in snowy conditions. |
I quoted it to show that people were not particularly worried about the forecast snow and the authorities ability to cope, which they have in the past. No-one was saying "omg it's going to be snowmageddon" but obviously there were some worries with it being a t'fer day. Noz's Weds forecast nailed the precise timing of the storm so at that point, and as you say, information was available to punters like you and me to alter their travel plans (leave or arrive early or book a hotel).
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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I guess if you've got flexibility over your accommodation then it's easy to miss 'snowmaggedon' events. Like Rob, we've our own appartment and one of the biggest benefits is just being able to completely avoid the Saturday rush. I have to say, the dump was so well forecast you do wonder why people didn't think through the likely traffic impact a bit more.
| rob@rar wrote: |
| davidof wrote: |
| So first hints around Wednesday midday but no one forsaw the total lack of organisation on the day. |
All the information was available for several days in advance for those responsible for organising the local response. Obviously it would have been impossible for all the chaos to be avoided, but I think a better job could have been done, especially with regard to information flow, opening up emergency shelters, strictly enforcing regulations about winter equipment on cars and buses, etc. Self-drivers on the way out, like myself, had the information they needed to leave early and completely avoid the chaos, and inbound self-drivers, like chocksaway, had the information they needed to delay their arrival and book in to accommodation and at least spend the night in a bed rather than a car or a school hall.
As I understand it no roads were closed because the local authorities were unable to clear them of snow (as I suggested in the comment of mine that you quoted), but they became impassible because of the volume of traffic which were able to make progress in the snowy conditions. It only takes a very small number of cars or buses to make a road unusable if they are not equipped for driving in snowy conditions. |
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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@notnats, There were talks that big snow arrives around Boxing Day starting from the first couple weeks of last season, few days before Christmas Day it looked like a certainty.
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rubbing it in @Toadman, ?
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By the way, @Toadman, I've decided to go to Tignes - Wengen & Murren will have to happen another time...
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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A little top up of snow in Tignes overnight 
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The temperatures way above the pole are hitting record lows and the wind speeds record highs. The jet stream is left very strong keeping everything bottled up north. If we want colder air to have a real chance to push south we need the polar vortex to be disrupted and a weakened jet.
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FAQ
Obviously you need a strong jet and a weakening high pressure to bust it all up and let the low trough come in, kick A to the double S, and dump some snow! So, is what's happening right now here in the PNW going to make it's way all the way across the continental U.S of A, then storm across the Atlantic keep motoring along like a runaway freight train and blast through that pesky Euro high pressure and dump some cold white happiness all over the Alps? I guess we will know in a few days. A good math question for the kids, right? 
How long does it take for a 300 mph jet stream take to reach the Alps. Of course it don't go in a straight line! 
