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The all new 10/11 Weather Outlook thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
phillip33, I Take it you've opened the champagne and downed it in one Wink

But it looks like Val D'Isere did get some new snow, pic & text from the alpine experience diary for today:

Quote:
The sun returned again this morning and after a few extra centimetres of snow last night we savoured a superb morning up at the Fornet. It was wonderful to be able to lay ‘Alpine’ tracks again




Last edited by Poster: A snowHead on Thu 17-02-11 19:41; edited 2 times in total
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Hurtle, oooh - is it this weekend you're off? Have a fab time! snowHead Looks like you're not going to have to worry about the snow Very Happy
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Quote:

were having it because, well because,my wife thinks there may be a power cut

Laughing that sounds as good a reason as any.

Have you got those goggles which enable you to see in a blizzard?
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12z holding strong.....
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
kitenski, cool photo. Cool
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wow, after a distinclty sh*t day in the office, that picture is just what i needed to see. Now if only it would suck me in and spit me out at the top of Fornet I'd be even happier Smile
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
phillip33, hope you and your family have a great holiday and you get the snow you are so longing for. If enthusiasm counted for anything, you would surely get at least a metre Smile
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
kitenski, re downed well spotted had two pints after a dry few days gone to my head, needed when calling the NOZA out and demanding delivery of snow, re that photo clearly a picture posted by a desperate chalet owner looking for a last minute booking,and therefore can be disregarded as a FAKE

pam w, re goggles very spooky as i was just mentioning to my wife a visit to LE BLIZZARD in Valdisere, and i remember the good old days of smoking and being in that hotel choking on the smoke and barely able to see ( hence goggle link) pam do you read palms?

anyway time to read bedtime book to child then cham time ,and more abuse of Noza and philemes !!!!!! or anyone who tells me there might be snow Very Happy
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AW,

thanks enthusiasm is punch drunk driven !!!
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too much whitenoise on this important thread.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
red 27 wrote:
too much whitenoise on this important thread.


To be fair I havent seen Whitenoise post on hear for a while..................... Laughing
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Hurtle wrote:
Toadman, thank you. Extra thermals in the luggage, then! I do hope Europe delivers some decent skiing for you.


If you are arriving around the 19th or 20th, you will have some crowds of Americans crossing the border for Presidents Day weekend, which runs through Feb. 21st. After that, it should be pretty calm with possible blue skies and cold temps. No worries about rain with freezing levels below 500 meters. Really hard to say for the rest of the week, as with the jet stream and Gulf of Alaska currently bringing cool, moist air, it could shift any minute as I type. Might be a cold high pressure setting in around the 22nd. Too soon to say. The forecasters are only 50% right around here...Another few small snow events tonight, and Sunday/Monday bringing between 20cm-30cm of fresh snow. Enjoy it! snowHead


Last edited by And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports. on Thu 17-02-11 21:06; edited 1 time in total
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So, things are looking good for some snowfall across much of the alps over the next four or five days. Quite how much remains to be seen - the first band is coming into range of the mesoscale models now which will give us more confidence on probable amounts and locations.

Currently I'd suggest that the north west French alps (3V, Chamonix, ValD) and Switzerland and Eastern Italian alps are going to receive the bulk of the first band of precipitation.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
philmes, val d ? i love you philmes and yes if youve been reading the thread i,m on the cham and judging by your generous and optimistic words so are you, still big love,come in NOZA where are you ? please cross triaumfligate these readings ?? and confirm snowfall ps i know your not going to play these games you cheeky noza Twisted Evil
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Im excited Switzerland is now mentioned in the forecasts instead of France... Laughing
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
This evening's 18z GFS pushes the high pressure up and slightly further east... Which suggests to me a model which will end up favouring Switzerland and Austria rather than France...



But... Given the propensity to swing back and forth and given this is still several days out I mention this more to illustrate how the position the high pressure ends up will influence the outcome, rather than because I think this will necessarily be the outcome. Let's see where it sits in the ensembles...
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Toadman, thanks. Yes, I arrive evening of 20th. Had to travel that week, on account of one of our party being a prof at McGill, and that's when their break is, unfortunately. Coincides with UK half term as well, so the airport here will probably be mayhem and I couldn't get a particularly good flight deal. Ah, it'll be fine, it's a week on the snow and there's plenty of it, it would be churlish to complain.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
[quote="nozawaonsen"]This evening's 18z GFS pushes the high pressure up and slightly further east... Which suggests to me a model which will end up favouring Switzerland and Austria rather than France...



But... Given the propensity to swing back and forth and given this is still several days out I mention this more to illustrate how the position the high pressure ends up will influence the outcome, rather than because I think this will necessarily be the outcome. Let's see where it sits in the ensembles...[/quotee

noza you dont really believe this your just +issed with because you know where i,m going, you really are a naughty boy!!
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Hurtle, I suspect Toadman has more of a feel for weather over there. I've really not been watching it with much care. I had a glance this evening and it looked like a couple of storms could be rolling down the coast next week which would bring snow to Whistler.
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This evening's 18z shows clearly how the position of the high pressure developing from the south over the next few days could shift the snowfall significantly. Tonight's variation favours the eastern Alps. But I would expect some further to and fro over the next few days.

Chamonix



The Arlberg

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When the sun finally came out following the recent blizzards, there was plenty of new snow revealed at Glencoe ...

http://www.winterhighland.info/pix/displayimage.php?photo_id=18158

... and with more snow to come over the next few days, if it does settle down again next week, it should be pretty peachy.

http://www.mwis.org.uk/mountain/EH.PDF
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
nozawaonsen wrote:
This evening's 18z shows clearly how the position of the high pressure developing from the south over the next few days could shift the snowfall significantly. Tonight's variation favours the eastern Alps. But I would expect some further to and fro over the next few days.


The Arlberg



Well now, I'm liking the jist of this chart...I'm wondering if I do a snow dance if it will only benefit Hurtle. Maybe I'll save it until after I land in Munich. Smile
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Hurtle wrote:
Toadman, thanks. Yes, I arrive evening of 20th. Had to travel that week, on account of one of our party being a prof at McGill, and that's when their break is, unfortunately. Coincides with UK half term as well, so the airport here will probably be mayhem and I couldn't get a particularly good flight deal. Ah, it'll be fine, it's a week on the snow and there's plenty of it, it would be churlish to complain.


Hurtle Current forecast 7 days out is indicating some sun to show itself around Feb. 23rd, and Feb. 24th could be sunny as well. Still forecasting alpine temps in the -10 C to -15 C range. You'll basically miss the crowds I suspect as most Yanks will be heading back home early afternoon on the 21st. Might see a few stragglers hanging around though.
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Useful link to a rolling 24hr real time weather station for the Val d'Aosta region, showing temp;humidity;wind speed & direction;sunshine;precip & cumulative precip (this is in mm melt-water as they have a heater on the gauge, but it does get blocked in heavy snowfall - that was yesterday Toofy Grin )
http://www.regione.vda.it/protezione_civile/meteo/dati/Graf05.gif
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Annoyingly the eastward trend continues. The first band of precipitation is now visible on the mesoscale models and doesn't currently look like delivering an awful lot. The second (larger) band of precipitation looks like missing most of the French alps completely. So looking great for Switzerland and Austria, rather crap for France.


After next week high pressure looks to be in charge. It is unclear how long this will remain the case.
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Looks like the next few days could bring about 5 to 10cms to the French Alps. Snow coming in early on Sunday morning.

Here it is at midday on Sunday on WRF (one of the mesoscale models).



After that this morning's GFS has the high pressure further east delivering more snow for the eastern Alps (Arlberg and Tirol in particular).

UKMO and ECM are not quite so keen to push the high out east so quickly and offer better options for snow in the western Alps. Still time for it to swing back and forth a fair amount. Temperatures seem to have settled around seasonal average for the coming week, possibly a bit cooler midweek. wink
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Accumulated precipitation from WRF below. Not as much as the previous run, but welcome anyway.

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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Keep in mind too that at the end of the time frame for that accumulated chart it would, if verified, still be snowing across the French Alps.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Quote:

Annoyingly the eastward trend continues. The first band of precipitation is now visible on the mesoscale models and doesn't currently look like delivering an awful lot. The second (larger) band of precipitation looks like missing most of the French alps completely. So looking great for Switzerland and Austria, rather crap for France.



For those off to Austria - the eastwards trends is good right?
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
As currently modelled yes. If it pushes too far east it would be no.
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Crying or Very sad
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
It's going to dump in the alps on March 3rd Very Happy

just a hunch snowHead
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
shoogly wrote:
It's going to dump in the alps on March 3rd Very Happy

just a hunch snowHead


Looks pretty unlikely at the moment given the current model output Neh Neh
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nozawaonsen wrote:
As currently modelled yes. If it pushes too far east it would be no.

Would that be cold and dry though?
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RetroBod wrote:
nozawaonsen wrote:
As currently modelled yes. If it pushes too far east it would be no.

Would that be cold and dry though?


No. Warm and dry.
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The 06z GFS shows exactly what happens when the high pressure builds too far east. The intensity of the first band of precipitation is much reduced and pushed further south. The second band misses the alps completely.

So a bad run for everyone, except those in the very south French alps (ie. much further south than 3V and VD).

There is now some precipitation showing for the weekend after next, but that's so far out in the future it should be ignored completely.
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philmes wrote:
shoogly wrote:
It's going to dump in the alps on March 3rd Very Happy

just a hunch snowHead


Looks pretty unlikely at the moment given the current model output Neh Neh



Baaaa... you're too much of a realist Very Happy

we don't actually go anywhere (well, apart from Scotland obviously) until later in March anyway. Plenty time yet.

What's the weather outlook for Scotland?
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
shoogly wrote:
What's the weather outlook for Scotland?


Some snow this weekend - if you can, make the most of it. By the 22nd, the freezing level is up to 2000m with rain. By the 25th, freezing level is up to 3200m.
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High pressure in charge all the way out to the 6th of March on the GFS run. That's a long way into the future, but if it were to verify things would be very grim indeed.
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philmuser
High pressure in charge all the way out to the 6th of March on the GFS run. That's a long way into the future, but if it were to verify things would be very grim indeed.
es
,

Is that after the expected snow Sunday and Tuesday?
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