 Poster: A snowHead
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nozawaonsen,
its got bad news for Phil..... and wont come out its scared
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Sun unleashes huge solar flare -http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12485104. Is this going to make it snow?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| Steve Sparks wrote: |
| Sun unleashes huge solar flare -http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12485104. Is this going to make it snow? |
The mother of all foehns?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Good news, moderate and heavy snow in Les Arcs tonight according to netweather.tv (or should that be notweather.tv???!!!)
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Matthew Way wrote: |
| Good news, moderate and heavy snow in Les Arcs tonight according to netweather.tv (or should that be notweather.tv???!!!) |
Id actually based on radar images put a fair amount of money on that not coming off.
As for the 12z...truly an awful output for all concerned both this week and next with a wild swing to the mild mild side.
ECM just pulling an easterly still but actually displaying remarkably similar synoptics to that posted to those a few posts above by noza.
There was also one comment abput how forecasters on here (snowheads get it wrong). I think what Noza has certainly tried to do is paint the picture based on what the charts are showing. When the charts become a nowcast (i.e as it happens) is what we sitting at computers cannot do, thats for radar watchers and people on the ground. There will be times when it is wrong and this week for the more northern alps I think will be disappointing compared to the potential which was there.
ALSO netweather outputs massively over-exaggerate. Use as a guide, but certainly not as an accurate prediction as to amounts
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| franga wrote: |
I'm on a Cross-Pennines train service from Leeds to Manchester - it's crammed, stuffy and the next stop is glamorous Stalybridge.
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Sounds like the Geneva Chambery train I take in to work sometimes, only probably a damn sight more reliable.
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| Quote: |
Matthew Way wrote:
Good news, moderate and heavy snow in Les Arcs tonight according to netweather.tv (or should that be notweather.tv???!!!)
Id actually based on radar images put a fair amount of money on that not coming off.
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Sorry, I was being ironic that's all. netweather has been hopeless all week.
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Matthew Way, wash your mouth out with soap
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| JW_UK wrote: |
| As for the 12z...truly an awful output for all concerned both this week and next with a wild swing to the mild mild side. |
You talking about the whole of the European ski areas or one country? The 6z for the Arlberg had flipped to a colder outlook, so given what they have been doing recently I'm not surprised if it's flipped the opposite way!!
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JW_UK, not quite so sure it would be truly awful next week. Snow line around 1200m to 1600m as it comes through. Moderate snow in Switzerland and Chamonix area. Heavy snow and slightly cooler end of that range in Austria. Beyond that yes the operational goes warm, the control goes cold and the mean keeps it steady seasonal.
Of course given the speed it is flipping back and forth no reason to really believe this run any more than the last.
As for early this week over the weekend my sense was it was more likely to be some snow in some of the Alps, rather than heavy snow across the Alps and that the Southern French Alps and parts of north west Italy would probably do well.
[mind you I was rather hoping it would snow more in France... ]
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Hilariously nasty 12z low res GFS run, though given the divergences between the ECM, GFS and UKMO outputs at even a fairly early stage I'm not going to pay too much attention right now.
There's still a potential snow event for the 21st to the 23rd. How big this potential is depends on which model you look at. If the UKMO verified, it would probably result in a pretty decent dump for almost the whole of the alps. The output from the ECM is likewise pretty good for all but the very south. The GFS is more marginal for the French alps, but excellent for Switzerland and west Austria.
So everything still to play for - and let's hope the GFS 12z FI bartlett horror show doesn't verify.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| Matthew Way wrote: |
| Sorry, I was being ironic that's all. netweather has been hopeless all week. |
Indeed it has. Same goes for most of the public medium and long range computer generated weather forecasts. Most use the GFS data which is readily available for free. Nothing wrong with that, but...
<lecture mode="on" type="simple">
Numerical weather models operate by breaking the area they cover into regions. This is done to make it possible to compute forecasts in a timely fashion. In the case of the GFS, these regions are 35kmx35km square for the first 192 hours. This is known as the resolution of the model, and everywhere "within" that is projected to have the same atmospheric conditions.
Netweather and similar sites try to choose the nearest GFS grid point to the actual place the forecast is being generated for. So for any given place this could be roughly 17km longitude and latitude out.
On top of that, the mountains themselves greatly influence the weather. A 6km grid means that a lot of localised terrain is averaged (eg. 4000m peak, 600m valley = 1500m height for that 35 square kilometers)
Couple that with the fact that precipitation is one of the hardest things to forecast and you can understand why the forecasts driven by global weather models are somewhat unreliable, especially for marginal events where a front just "brushes" a region.
For better local predictions, we have mesoscale models which operate at a much higher resolution. These produce much better output, but because they're extremely CPU intensive to calculate are usually only run out to a maximum of 72 hours. Good examples that are freely viewable are COAMPS and WRF NMM (see meteociel.fr)
</lecture>
edit: I fail at maths. I also blame the beer.
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that's a brilliant summary - thanks
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You know it makes sense.
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| Quote: |
Of course given the speed it is flipping back and forth no reason to really believe this run any more than the last
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This is the key, isn't it? Nobody has the slightest idea; the weather is just proving elusive. Whilst some forecasts are already diving into very, very, cold, meteo france still has mild and very wet for the Alps next week.
Whilst it's still changing there's still hope.....
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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philmes, thanks for explaining
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Poster: A snowHead
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philmes: thanks for that, great explanation. Not really worth looking at for what we want I suppose.
BTW thanks for the analysis on an ongoing basis, really apprciated.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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philmes, very interesting; trying to learn a bit more but it's more complicated than Geography O level was - I used to like the weather questions as they were quite straightforward; snow forecasting isn't. Thanks for taking the time to explain. And thanks to nozawaonsen too.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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At least as far as next week goes 18z would be cooler than seasonal average on the operational run. Potential for some snowfall across much of the Alps on Sunday and as has been the case for a number runs over the last 72 hours (though certainly not all) a fairly decent amount of snowfall around 22 and 23 February in Austria (more so in the Arlberg and Tirol).
It seems that the 22/23 February marks something of a pivotal point for next week. After that runs have either trended cold or warm.
FI is once again different in this run... No dominant trend, but ends in the colder half after taking things milder for a period.
And once more you would have to say confidence is low...
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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As others have mentioned at the start of next week high pressure starts to build over western Europe. As the jet hits this it is forced ip and over. And at present as it dives back down towards the Alps it is modelled to deliver snow, particularly to the Eatern Alps, over half term.
Inevitably a lot of detail still to be put in place, but here is the jet at +144 on GFS 06z.
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06z ensembles suggesting 22 February would actually be pretty snowy round Chamonix and Switzerland as well as Austria (possibly even more so). But given the range and the general changeable nature of things recently you would have to treat it with fairly low confidence. Bit interesting and well worth watching... 
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nozawaonsen, only if you fancy a little break from Europe...would you care to opine on whether Whistler is going to get cold temps and bright sunshine next week? There's plenty of snow already, don't need any more, and certainly don't need any rain, even at resort level thank you (rain on metal roofs keeps me awake at night.)
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Well i'm hoping for an absolute direct hit on the french Alps, come on snow Gods, I dare you to give it your best shot! Bet you have'nt got the bottle. All you've got is tiny pathetic flakes that would'nt cover a small water biscuit. I double dare you to dump on France big time. Sorry got carried away again 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Quote: |
I double dare you to dump on France big time
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A decent sort of ordinary dump would be OK. A big time double dare dump could close roads, lifts, pistes and create humungeous avalanche risks.
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Just to say, nozawaonsen, philmes, and everyone else who contributes, how I appreciate your commitment to this thread, I don't understand half of what you say, but i am picking it up slowly, and I find this thread oddly compelling, even though I understand it is all theory and the only 100% reliable way to find out what the weather will be like tomorrow ... is to wait until tomorrow 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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I know Pam you are right of course, it's just the little demons inside me talking.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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If that 22 feb does happen it is going to be lethal for the snowpack 
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norris, we've just been talking about that at work... just happens to coincide with half term as well. there could be sorry news if people aren't careful out there when the snow arrives.
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You know it makes sense.
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shoogly, carnage I suspect. no snow for 40 days - then major dumpage
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| pam w wrote: |
| Quote: |
I double dare you to dump on France big time
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A decent sort of ordinary dump would be OK. A big time double dare dump could close roads, lifts, pistes and create humungeous avalanche risks. |
but I'd say a 50-100cm dump is needed to get the snowpack levels up, especially lower down....
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Poster: A snowHead
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kitenski, lower down has surely had it whatever ? all that snow settling on warm grass etc ( I am talking about off piste)
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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norris, yes I guess so unless it gets cold quickly, but you still need the lower pistes to get topped up to ski home, even if skiing off piste higher up 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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kitenski, yep - your right, hopefully good for my trip in a months time with offpisteskiing
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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norris, given the pics he's posted during the drought, I'm sure he'll sniff out the goods
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Given that the snowpack is pretty-much a write-off anyway (in terms of stability), a major dump is probably the best scenario available to us. Sure, it'll be chaos for a few days, but once it settles down a bit, hopefully a lot of slopes will have purged naturally (or by blasting) and we can then carry on in a half-way sensible manner.
Otherwise, the only thing that will stabilise the snow-pack is either heavy rain to the summits ( ) or the coming of the spring freeze-thaw cycle. A series of small snowfalls would be just as dangerous as one big dump.
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kitenski, he certainly has a good nose for the goods
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| Hurtle wrote: |
| nozawaonsen, only if you fancy a little break from Europe...would you care to opine on whether Whistler is going to get cold temps and bright sunshine next week? There's plenty of snow already, don't need any more, and certainly don't need any rain, even at resort level thank you (rain on metal roofs keeps me awake at night.) |
More likely than not, WB will continue to see snow and clouds, and very cold temps next week. The Jet stream took a turn for the better last week, and WB has been getting hit with cold temps and cold blower pow, as we like to say in these parts.
Part of me wishes I was canceling my trip to Europe and saving lots of money and skiing much, much, much better snow up in Whistler. All I can hope is I take the jet stream and snow with me when I fly out on Feb. 23rd. As you said, WB has more than enough snow...
At least this weekend I will plan on getting some decent skiing in before I head off to Europe and uncertainty... 
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I think some of the really large signals for snowfall are probably worth being rather wary of. But there do seem to be some opportunities for snow both Sunday and Tuesday/Wednesday across much of the Alps. How far west or east it falls rather depends on how far east or west that high pressure eventually sits...
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Toadman, thank you. Extra thermals in the luggage, then! I do hope Europe delivers some decent skiing for you.
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so let me get this straight ive been desperate for snow for the last 5 weeks since i booked my trip to Valdisere,and despite this weeks near miss, i should now hold out hope of it actually snowing whilst i was out there,hadnt thought of that,so i,m out of my glum mood,ready to start up my thread again "is it snowing" and this time if it does i can be a first hand witness !!! NOZA i,m back, this time deliver pretty please, philemes you stay away !!!! dont want no doom gloom wind from sahara blah blah blah melt play tennis predictions from you !!!! really joking before pam w lays loose i,m off to open the cham that i was meant to have when the drought broke this week,now were having it because, well because,my wife thinks there may be a power cut whilst were away and it will go warm good enough for me, bring on the next set of wiggles graph readers
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