 Poster: A snowHead
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| queen bodecia wrote: |
Bergfex says 20-30cm of snow right down to 700m this weekend. Get in!  |
Where's that for?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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RetroBod, just looking at Tirol generally. Obviously it could all change between now and then, but I'm staying cautiously optimistic.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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It's not allowed to change! By the way did you read the amounts off the pictures? I'm colour blind so can't tell colour except that it wasn't rain? Every site now seems to tell a different story from warm and wet to cold and cold! And BTW I don't need telling it can all change just tell me it is going to snow a bit? Thats not greedy.... Not looking for a powder fest or nothin!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Hey mister save some for Austria
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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nozawaonsen, Congratulations on predicting the current flurries. A far as I can see, at least the continental high has broken down and whatever comes in has got to be an improvement, even if you have to go high to find the more opaque kind of precipitation!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Quote: |
whatever comes in has got to be an improvement,
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Hmm. Wish I could believe that. But warm and wet weather wouldn't be any kind of improvement, especially if accompanied by fog or flat light. The weeks of dry, bright, sunny weather with top class piste-bashing really weren't too bad - we got quite spoiled. A week of poor light is too high a price to pay for a few centimetres of wet snow. 
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pam w, There were an awful lot of wheelchairs and sticks at the airport though. It was Ok all the while it was cold, but when things warmed up the pistes were taking serious wear. The snowline hasn't been too bad today.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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If (and of course it is if) that came off it would be a lot of snow in the Chamonix area at only a dash above seasonal average. Surely that is just what is needed?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Chamonix meteo's most recent forecast (this evening) sees a possible Foehn tomorrow and practically no precipitation this week.
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ipam w, nozawaonsen, is referring to 23rd I believe
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You know it makes sense.
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pam w, OMG, foehn as well!  Tin and lid are words that come to mind.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Still no consensus on how next week will look. ECM this evening keeps things below average, especially in the east. Here's how it models next Wednesday.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Looks like Milan is getting the precipitation we wanted at Les Arcs, at least we've got Peter Crouch.
Come on you Spurs!!!!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Not rubbing it in just reporting, 30 CM fresh snow in the Cascades these past 24 hours. Temps decreasing. Should be 0 C at about 300 meters tonight. It was snowing very hard as I left the mtn this afternoon. I sure hope I bring this weather with me to the Alps! Sorry to the folks on half-term, I don't arrive until Feb 24th. 
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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So todays snowfall looks to have been somewhat underwhelming and a good lesson in just how unreliable NWP precipitation forecasts are. It looks like the 3V region got around 3-5cm. Val D'Isere and Tignes seem to have had even less than that.
Looking at the GFS and the 18z run, and we continue to see some remarkable consistency in output. High pressure builds in France and eventually ridges north and east.
There is a window of opportunity around the 20th to the 23rd for France (3V, Chamonix and VD could do well) and Switzerland. This is pretty marginal though and a shift in the HP by a few hundred KM could bug-ger (that word is censored? seriously?) it all up. After that the run again shows cold-ish temperatures, but absolutely bone dry.
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I'm sorry philmes I don't understand why you are saying things like "remarkable consistency" when none exists?
The operational runs are this morning showing very cold temperatures for half term week, only 24 hours ago they were mild, 48 hours ago very cold. The 12z GFS for Chamonix showed huge amounts of precipitation last night, now it shows far less - though some ensembles still do show some. In Austria the control runs are still suggesting large snowfall the operational less so.
As for beyond next week that is far FI and whilst there might be a trend it can't be treated with much confidence whilst we can't even get next week sorted out?
And that's only on GFS.
As for snow in the Alps this week I think it began to be apparent at least 48 hours out that the snow today and yesterday was going to be mainly focussed on the Southern Alps and parts of Italy.
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Nozawaonsen, thanks for all your recent forecasts/analysis. I find your analysis informative and accurate. This thread is the one I turn to if I need to check conditions
Thanks
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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nozawaonsen, synoptically the GFS has been self consistent for several runs. The general pattern of a mid latitude block establishing itself just to the west continues.
The exact positioning of this block will have a dramatic impact on local forecasts in the Alps, as you rightly point out.
In regards to yesterdays precipitation, there was a lot of excitement from various parties, mostly off the back of automated forecasts from the likes of netweather. Their forecast for Tignes yesterday showed ~30cm of snow. Which the mesoscale model output and then reality showed to be fanciful in the extreme.
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wigglies seem to be projecting a decent snow window for 20-23rd in the french alps. Fingers Crossed!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| I'm sorry philmes I don't understand why you are saying things like "remarkable consistency" when none exists? |
Yeah, with only scant knowledge all I can see is a daily flip flop from the models 
Mind you I have mainly been focusing on the UK but seems like it's the same for the Alps too to me.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Whilst the very broad pattern may remain consistent how this translates into details like temperature and snowfall remains very inconsistent. The pendulum swinging back and forth between cold and dry and milder and wetter. Last night it got pretty close to cold or at least average for the season and very snowy for much of the Alps during half term (less so for southern parts of the French Alps though...).
Let's see how it goes today...
philmes, I'd certainly agree that the mesoscale models, like WRF are probably more helpful close in.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| Whilst the very broad pattern may remain consistent how this translates into details like temperature and snowfall remains very inconsistent. |
Absolutely - when I mentioned consistency I was only referring to the larger synoptic pattern. My fault for not being absolutely specific I guess.
Back to the models and the 6z shows the mid latitude block slightly further west. In the longer timeframe the ridging to the north east isn't as strong, allowing very cold air to flood in from the north east.
The precipitation around the 20th to the 23rd continues to show. The positioning here is too far out to be certain - right now Switzerland and Austria look like getting a pasting, with parts of the north French alps also doing pretty well.
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You know it makes sense.
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Either way it looks like it will be skiing by feel, rather than by sight, during half term.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| Quote: |
The precipitation around the 20th to the 23rd continues to show. The positioning here is too far out to be certain - right now Switzerland and Austria look like getting a pasting, with parts of the north French alps also doing pretty well.
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I'm tired of flip flopping - can we take this one please
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| bar shaker wrote: |
| Either way it looks like it will be skiing by feel, rather than by sight, during half term. |
Doesnt matter if you can't see you boots either as they are in knee deep pow?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Well the 06z swings things back towards very cold and dry (and relatively clear) after the first half of half term being rather snowier (more so in the eastern Alps - though certainly nothing quite on the scale that was being suggested for much of yesterday). But without any consistency... You can't have much confidence at this stage.
This half term period has certainly been more unpredictable than any other period this season so far. But I would probably have been keener to bank some of the last few runs than the one's before. 
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Ensembles for the 3V region
Notable that the operational and control runs disagree a great deal from the 21st, which indicates very low confidence in the forecast solution.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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All those coming out over half term.
Conditions are perfect in Puy St Vinent in the southern alps.
At least 40cm of fresh at altitude.
25cm at 1400 snow down to below 1000m
Temps perfect at just below freezing so snow is light and not wet.
Still snowing lightly.
Interestingly on arrival on Sunday the piste conditions were absolutely fine, no ice, no rocks or stones so despite all the doom and gloom on this thread over the past fortnight it really was perfectly skiable despite the lack of snow.
Just goes to show it's generally always better than you think from afar.
We are very lucky to just hit it lucky this week. Tree skiing has been superb. .
Lots of lovely pillow lines. 
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phillip33, Even though my wife kept me slapped up in factor 50, someone today did comment on the tan. 
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I'm on a Cross-Pennines train service from Leeds to Manchester - it's crammed, stuffy and the next stop is glamorous Stalybridge.
I know where I'd rather be - am I alone in thinking that, yes, it would be great to ski on perfect snow every time BUT what really gets me going is the rush of adrenalin, the sense of travel, the mountain, the people you're with, the experience, the apres-ski, basically the whole package?
I consider myself very lucky to have a boarding trip to look forward to in late March - yes, I'm fascinitated by nozawaonsen's insight and analysis and everyone else's input and comments and like everyone else I'm addicted to this forum. Great stuff!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| franga wrote: |
| next stop is glamorous Stalybridge. |
Lovely buffet bar there
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GFS 12z... is stuck...
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FAQ
