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The All New 17/18 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
ECM seems to predict a great deal of snow for western alps around the 6th. Far out i know, but whats supposed to happen around then?
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@staffsan, Way too far out as you say and GFS isnít on board. Though 06z GFS just rolling out.

But...

ECM plunges a further low down across the Alps.



Ending up with this.

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Cold I assume but does that setup bring snow too?
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@RetroBod, it would if it came off. But at this stage given how far out it is itís not especially relevant one way or another.
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So Chamonix got pretty much what Cham Meteo forecast, itís looking positive higher up. Hopefully the next 7 days will bring whatís being promised... Happy
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@under a new name, nice! Please keep it cold and snowy til jan/feb!

During decent winters, when are you most likely to be able to ski down to the valley from valley blanche and north/northeast face of aiguille du midi?
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12z GFS interesting in that it starts building support for the earlier ECM option.




Meanwhile this week sees low temperatures and fresh snow for much (not all) of the Alps. Austria looks to fair well again.



Although itís either side of the Adriatic in Italy and the Balkans which looks like getting most snow.
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@staffsan,
Last year in late January (29)I had to take the train down, but i was led to believe most winters by late January and through February you have a good chance of being able to ski to the valley. Iíd like to try it again starting from the Italian side and ski all the way. MAybe nest year as this year itís the Arlberg.
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I donít want to jinx it but this year looks and feels colder, hereís hoping it stays cold and the early season snow hangs around to create a good base. The last couple of years have had snow this early but Iím sure it didnít feel this consistently cold?
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Jones82 wrote:
I donít want to jinx it but this year looks and feels colder, hereís hoping it stays cold and the early season snow hangs around to create a good base. The last couple of years have had snow this early but Iím sure it didnít feel this consistently cold?


It's looking right now like the second-best Winter this decade for the European Alps.

Ischgl, in Austria, has ~70% of its trails open. And it's not even December.

Western Canada has also had an epic start.
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Whitegold wrote:


It's looking right now like the second-best Winter this decade for the European Alps.

Ischgl, in Austria, has ~70% of its trails open. And it's not even December.

Western Canada has also had an epic start.


Omg! This, from you! That does feel like a jinx!
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Definitely on the cold side. You can see from the chart below (the third one), that the SW end of the Alps is forecast to be drier than usual while parts of Austria are forecast to be snowier than usual over next 8 days.



Right at the end of this morningís 12z GFS the op headed mild. Not much support from the ensembles however.

Here they are.



The Arlberg



Chamonix



Cairngorm



Sestriere



Eastern Pyrenees

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12Z GFS still predicting cold weather and snow for the E Alps for the next couple of weeks.

Should be a cracking but cold start to the season. Only downside is having to dodge the snow guns as they tend to run them thru the day as well this time of year.

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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Both ECM and GFS 12zs produced milder spells against a cold background. The latter on 09/10 December and the former on 06 December.

Obviously no consistency at this stage and far off, but possibly indications of a shift.

Whether it happens and whether if is brief or more substantial is unclear.

For now at least the outlook for the reliable timeframe is cold.
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ECM 00z keeps things cold till 06/07 December when high pressure returns along with milder weather.

GFS 00z does similar, but mild weather is only briefly able to gain a grip.
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06z GFS gives the idea of any milder spell pretty short shrift...


http://youtube.com/v/EJZHiz0AtOk
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Though 12z GFS again suggesting second week of December more likely to see milder weather than the first week. ECM later this evening will be interesting.

Shorter term cold and snow to low levels for much of Alps.

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Looks like ECM actually did switch back to colder weather long term, no?
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00z GFS and ECM suggesting a continuation of cold conditions this morning.
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12z GFS now backing cold out towards mid month after a few wobbles. It breaks up right at the end of run but that is far FI.

Snow for much of the Alps and Pyrenees Thursday into Friday and this could produce some fresh snow for the SW end of the Alps.



More snow for the northern Alps looking likely 06/07 December.
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Iíve got the links etc saved for the graph output of the GFS on meteoceil, is there anywhere I can get a similar output for ECM, or is this one put out on a map based chart? If so where can I go to find it? Thanks!
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Can someone explain to a bear with a small brain the difference between the lines on the map (isobars?) and the colours and the significance of the difference?
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@nozawaonsen, any thoughts for snow on Saturday. Thinking of road conditions in the Tyrol.
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ECM 12z is still pursuing the mild story from around 6/7 December and brings in a much more Atlantic flavour. That put it quite at odds with GFS. So a fair amount of uncertainty beyond 05 December giving the shifts from run to run and model to model.

@MountainIdiot, here are ensembles on Meteociel. The ECM ones are slightly different from the GFS ones in terms of how they are laid out.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ensembles.php

You can see the ECM op was at the milder end of the ensembles and an outlier by the end, although there is a clear trend towards slightly warmer temperatures. This is for Chamonix.



Iím sure @Jellybeans1000, will have some good ECM links.

@rob@rar, no snow currently Saturday in Tirol. More of an issue on Friday possibly.

@BertieG, itís a big subject. But very simply on those pressure maps blues mean low pressure. Yellows and orange high pressure.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
@rob@rar, no snow currently Saturday in Tirol. More of an issue on Friday possibly.
Thanks.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
@BertieG, itís a big subject. But very simply on those pressure maps blues mean low pressure. Yellows and orange high pressure.

Are the coloured areas the pressure at altitude and the bar's surface pressure?
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Continuing chopping and changing this morning, though in different ways GFS and ECM both introducing a milder spell towards the end of next week. ECM only gives it two days, GFS a little longer, but at present neither suggest it is a long term thaw.
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@nozawaonsen, no surprise that the ops chop and change so much 8-10 days out. But am wondering have you got the dates mixed up?
2 posts above you say "More snow for the northern Alps looking likely 06/07 December", being wednesday and thurs.
And then today you say milder towards end of next week...presumably thats fri-sat?

In any case, this mornings output (12z) from ECM/GFS both have it the other way around... mild on Wed Dec 6th, and then below it's looking colder and snowier on Sat Dec 9th, ie towards end of the week.


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@langball, no, yesterday evening GFS 12z was suggesting snow on 06/07 December.



But then as you say this morningís 00z (not 12z) output on ECM and GFS is suggesting milder weather towards the end of next week (and not snow on 06/07).

ECM Thursday



ECM Friday



By the weekend (Saturday) itís cooling down again (as I said ECM only gives the milder weather two days).



Though given the differences between GFS and ECM plenty could still change.
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Deleted post because i'm being a moron - why am I not seeing this thread on the board?
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 Poster: A snowHead
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Oh - because I'm a bigger moron and its now a sticky.
Doh!
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@nozawaonsen, ok...it's easy to overlook the lag/differences in temp charts vs pressure charts, meaning while high pressure is forecast from 3-7th dec roughly, the cold air doesn't retreat until 6th. Then as the pressure drops again 7-8th, the colder air follows down on 9th-10th. All probably not completely helpful given that level of detail is bound to change as you say.

What isn't going to change, are the outstanding conditions in store this weekend, bluebirds all round. Excited my board is getting a new base today after some Avoriaz rock ripped it to pieces last sunday. It's not all fun and games out here in the hardship of the alps.
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Another handy site is weatherunderground...here's a screen shot for LG next 10 days. I really like their real time radar images to see snow showers rolling in, and whether resort x is going to be hit.
Note the black line shows pressure starts rising today, peaking on the 5th, while temps don't bottom out until 3rd. So 2 more days of snow, then the high pressure leads to sunny dry and calm mid week.

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Quote:


Another handy site is weatherunderground


wxcharts.eu & yr.no are decent sites as well
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Happy now. My drive is now officially a piste.......... snowy NYM
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Heading for a real drop in temperatures in the central Pyrenees. A light dusting of snow over night to very low levels but with plunging temperatures and snow forecast we should see something in the region of 20cm tomorrow. Between tomorrow and Saturday we may experience minus 20 on the slopes with wind chill. Great for our opening day on Saturday at Superbagneres Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
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12z ECM has a nice scenario for around the 10th whereas GFS has it mild and a fŲhn.

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MountainIdiot wrote:
Iíve got the links etc saved for the graph output of the GFS on meteoceil, is there anywhere I can get a similar output for ECM, or is this one put out on a map based chart? If so where can I go to find it? Thanks!

Map based charts.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php
These are the ones everyone else here uses.
http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf.php
These are the ones I use.

Some interesting looking lows on EC FI, but a look at the drivers, tells that patience is required.
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Quote:

Map based charts.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php
These are the ones everyone else here uses.
http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf.php
These are the ones I use.



great stuff, much appreciated
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Good consistency this morning. A brief warm up Thursday and Friday before cold conditions continue. For now FI looks cold and snowy.
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