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The All New 17/18 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead

http://youtube.com/v/U5bUmx-hk-c

In case you have missed it there's a heat wave stretching across Europe. Records are set to be broken. Beaches are full. But. The nights are getting longer and winter is surely only er five and a bit months away. Anyway. Time to party which ever way you look at it.

So. This bit. Because there was some ripe old nonsense talked last season.

"It's definitely going to be a -NAO which means that it will snow in Aosta on the 23rd February. I spoke to a local farmer (who'd just googled it) and he said it was looking like the best season in years. But anyway all weather forecasts are always wrong. My friends a guide."

I wouldn't take a forecast beyond 7 days that seriously.

Computer models are good at giving you an idea of what the forecast is likely to be three to five days out (which is actually pretty amazing given the chaotic nature of weather). That said they can still be caught by surprise and accurately predicting precipitation in particular is very difficult. Although sometimes people ask what "locals" think the weather will be like, most (farmers, police, guides) will use the same sort of forecasting tools every else does. Locals don't have a sixth sense that can allow them to know what the weather will be like that others don't have. What they do have built on hard experience is a much better feel for how the weather will affect the local area and how that will change the conditions.

Here's something I scribbled down on forecasting at the end of the 2011 season. I think it still makes broad sense now.

nozawaonsen wrote:


"Looking at shorter term models like GFS etc. Beyond seven days any model is very subject to change. I wouldn't take it that seriously. You might get a trend. GFS provides a longer range, public set of ensembles than other models and these are easier to tie to location than others, but the ease of use does not mean GFS is necessarily a better model than others. To have any confidence in that trend you would want to see it picked up run after run and also joined by other models.

- Closer in GFS and other synoptic models start to be less useful in the 2 to 3 day range. Local variation will start to undermine them beyond the general trend.
- Mesoscale models like WRF may be more useful in the 2-3 day range.
- Right close in, on the day or day before for example, if I needed a good forecast I would almost always choose the local avalanche forecast for accuracy.

- Don't take it that seriously."

To which I'd add that beyond seven days you can't really talk about a forecast, what you have is a range of probabilities, as shown by the different coloured ensembles, which is almost always simply too great a spread to really call a forecast. You can't really make sense of these as a single snapshot. So you need to see how they evolve from run to run to give you a sense of whether certain options are looking more or less likley.


And to repeat forecasting accurate precipitation is very difficult (so be wary of any forecast that appears to say you will get 23.5cm of snow next Friday). Measuring how much has fallen afterwards is almost as difficult if not more so (so be wary of any snow report which claims 23.5cm of snow fell last Friday).

And finally for anyone wanting facts about the future. There aren't any there are only forecasts (and sensible ones tend to have caveats).

Good that hopefully should have cleared things up a bit.

What about ENSO? Last year at this time it looked like La Nia, but turned out neutral (though this was already becoming clear by late July). This year... looks neutral again. How much influence does this have on a European winter? Somewhere between not a lot and it's not very clear.



NAO last winter was clearly positive (despite some over confident claims it would be negative).

Right now though. Hot.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
So let's hope the next winter will be a good one with plenty of sunshine and plenty of powder!
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Hope you guys are having a nice summer Very Happy

I thought I would plonk some links for newbies on the first page.

Tropical Tidbits
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
Contains model data from GFS, EC, GEM, JMA, NAVGEM and GFS-Para.

Wetterzentrale
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/default.php
Contains model data from GFS, EC, UKMO, GEM, ICON, ARPEGE, WRF, AROME, JMA, NAVGEM, GEFS, GEPS and heaps of other lesser models. Also home of the 'squiggly lines' GEFS plot, that everyone here likes to use for some reason.

Meteociel
http://www.meteociel.fr
Contains model data from ARPEGE, AROME, GFS, HIRLAM, UKMO, EC, HIWPP and models from Russia, Brazil, China and India + heaps of other lesser models.

Yr.no
https://www.yr.no
Simple EC Weather Data output

Windy
https://www.windy.com/?33.870,7.734,4
Beautiful interactive map of weather data from EC, GFS and NEMS(mesoscale).

Weatheronline
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=aupa&MODELL=cfs&MODELLTYP=1&VAR=pslv&HH=84&BASE=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0
Weatheronline has all the major models, many of the lesser ones, plus CFS, the only public long term model.

Verifications
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_aczhist.html
Verifications of models for those who are interested.

I mentioned a lot of different models here, but you should only worry about GFS, EC, GEM and UKMO for most situations, and AROME and WRF for mesoscale purposes. The various other lesser models require more experience to interpret correctly. I hope this helps you out.

If in any doubt on how to use these weather models, just ask. I am sure everyone will help out. If you want a simple forecast, use Yr.no.

Before the question gets asked, snow-forecast.com and the majority of commercial sites use GFS forecasts. The majority of government affiliated sites in Europe use the EC model. Some sites like snowforecast.com add in aspect related data to better capture snow conditions in particular areas. They are also higher resolution than the GFS Op forecast, but be wary because GFS isn't designed to have it's resolution increased.

And finally EC is usually recognised as the best of the models. Be wary of GFS (or any lesser model) output and compare to EC.

Cheers to a great season Very Happy
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Thanks to Noza, Jelly and all our other resident weather gurus for the efforts that you make. Skiers enjoy obsessing about the weather and the annual outlook thread makes the whole thing so much more intense!
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Currently heading up towards 19C here. High of 12C forecast for Alston, North Pennines this Sunday with a couple of degrees lower expected up at Yad Moss. still too warm for snow .....but its heading in the right direction wink
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2017/2018, great so if I give you my holiday dates can we get the weather nailed down for me .............wink

Only kidding. Ditto @telford_mike, thanks to all you gurus.

Let's hope we stick to the weather, what ever we think it may be, or wish for.
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Well we actually have snow on the cards for the European Alps in the next week or so.


EC and GFS are both showing roughly similar systems that hit the Alps next Wednesday.

Roughly 10-30cm on the cards on EC ATM.
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@Jellybeans1000, yep the first chance of a change from the very hot temperatures we currently have in the Alps looks like coming middle of next week. Though snowfall if it came would only be very high perhaps dropping to around 2300m. Still a week out at this stage.
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Can we please have less invective here this season - it is not the forecasters fault if the winter is warm.

In the finance world, anything beyond a forecast, which in finance terms, is a maximum of twelve months and usually a lot less - is a projection - and that is based on a set of assumptions which might or might not prove to be correct. In finance, there is often things like order backlog which help to provide certainty of a forecast which does not exist in the chaos of weather systems. What we want and what we get are two very different things BUT don't blame the forecaster.

For me, thank you for sharing your views and the various forecasts - the whole process of the development of forecasts is fascinating and only little (on a global scale) things can have a huge effect on what in global terms is a relatively small area, the Alps, which we inevitably concentrate on.
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Will it snow though?
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@Fridge03, yes.

Moving on...

SLF look back at last season.

Short winter marked by little snowfall and few avalanche victims

Review of winter 2016/2017

http://www.slf.ch/dienstleistungen/news/winterrueckblick_2017/index_EN

Winter 2016/17 was characterised by warm temperatures and extremely little snowfall. Many places had continuous snow cover only for a very brief period. Seven people were killed in avalanches significantly fewer than average over a 20-year period.

Of course your own experience of the season will depend on a whole range of factors. But from my perspective on the positives the early November snowfall, deep cold in January and great end of April conditions. Downsides were a bone dry December, very mild much of winter and first half of spring and generally poor off piste. Still there was also some great dancing, good company and plenty of sunshine.
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I claim the first snow of this season then wink

It's been bonkers hot out here past three or four weeks and I'm doing a lot training for a big cycling event middle of July.

You can try and avoid the heat by leaving early, but really you have to face up to it as on the day of the event, which could see you in the saddle for ten hours you stand a very good chance of cycling in mid to high 30's.

However.................

We also have the lottery of afternoon thunderstorms that are quite prevalent, however these are really hard to forecast and some days you might not see a cloud all day when they are forecast.

And then there is absolutely no way, even on the day can an accurate location be forecast too, so like I say it's a lottery and yesterday was a classic case.

KenX was working at our building and both he and I were fascinated by the size of the rain drops that were falling sporadically caught in the rays of the sunshine.

Whilst 5km down in the valley Briancon / Queyras direction you could see torrential rain and hear the thunder and KenX's OH confirmed that it was a massive deluge where they live 10km from me.

We stayed almost dry whilst later on I read reports of roads being closed due to flash floods and landslides and one being on a road around Lac Serre Poncon where I was cycling the day before.

And then as the weather cleared early in the evening KenX's OH posted this shot, that's around 2,600m



Ten day forecast has much colder temps back end of next week and Sunday July 2nd in the Marmot Grand Fondo a seriously big cycle sportive and they will be going over the Galibier 2,645.

And three weeks ago there was a massive Dutch charity cycling event on the Alpe D'Huez where individuals and teams try and cycle up there as many times as possible and the road and mountain was evacuated as a severe storm hit with hail and plummeting temps and people were suffering from hypothermia!

Sometimes in the summer the weather is more fascinating that the winter!

Oh and Southern Alps will have stonking conditions Jan 19th for ten or so days as that's when we go to Japan rolling eyes
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Dunno how accurate this is;

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2017&ui_day=172&ui_set=0
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@bruisedskier, I think the data is accurate. What's a little less clear is the strength of relationship between rapid build up of Siberian snowcover in Autumn and cold weather in Europe and the US east coast the following Winter. This is an area Judah Cohen has been researching. As he says what relationship there is is likely just one factor.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/12/02/why-prosperous-autumn-snows-in-eurasia-may-portend-a-brutal-east-coast-winter/

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

"I have also been discussing snow cover across the NH. Snow cover this spring has been more resilient to melt than in previous recent springs. Snow cover and snow mass continue to be relatively high across the NH helped by in part by below normal temperatures in key regions, though the snow cover season across the NH (except at high elevations) is quickly coming to a close. The snow cover remains more resilient in Eurasia relative to North America and Eurasian snow cover extent is still at decadal highs while North American snow cover extent is at decadal lows. The relatively extensive snow cover may help to slow down the pace of melting Arctic sea ice this summer."
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Let the games begin!

Best of luck gentlemen, I wish all snowHead a good season's snow chasing
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 Poster: A snowHead
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So a secret prize for the person to predict the date first heavy snow in the French Alps of more than 20cm. Nearest the bull wins.

I'll go for Nov 16th.
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According to the Daily Express (Oct. 12th 2017 edition) it's gonna be the coldest winter for decades. snowHead snowHead snowHead
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martinm wrote:
According to the Daily Express (Oct. 12th 2017 edition) it's gonna be the coldest winter for decades. snowHead snowHead snowHead

Could you PM me the racing results in that edition. snowHead Toofy Grin
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No racing due to 6ft of snow Toofy Grin
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That'll do, I'm off down the Bookies to put my shirt on significant snow in October. snowHead
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Hi All,

So I have been following this thread for the past 5 years, and again, thanks to everyone who take the time and put in the effort to keep this thread interesting.

I am however heading over to Canada in December this year (Banff), instead of doing my normal January Austria trip...

So I was wondering if there is a thread as informative as this one that deals with the Canadian / US winter forecast and snowfall forecast?

Thanks in advance,
Cheers.
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Don87 wrote:
Hi All,

So I have been following this thread for the past 5 years, and again, thanks to everyone who take the time and put in the effort to keep this thread interesting.

I am however heading over to Canada in December this year (Banff), instead of doing my normal January Austria trip...

So I was wondering if there is a thread as informative as this one that deals with the Canadian / US winter forecast and snowfall forecast?

Thanks in advance,
Cheers.


@Toadman normally contributes some good info on the Pacific North West on this thread. I'm sure he'll be along later in the year.
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In for a very volatile week across the Alps for the rest of the week with a series of troughs and cold fronts so would not be surprised to see snow at altitudes over 2,500 even !!!
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Weathercam, No!
Unless the weather sorts itself by the following week, coz we is off to the Tarentaise for a bit of summer mountain (Oh dear, I'm rather losing my cool - I think I might have wee-weed myself a little bit :oops:).
Sunshine only please.
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@Jonpim, weather, hopefully seems to be stabilising from Sunday onwards.

Just as well as there is the massive Marmot cycling sportive, which starts in Bour Oisans goes over Col Glandon Croix de Fer drops down into Maurienne and then back up over the Telegraphe and Galibier then back down Lautaret, La Grave to Bourg before finally going up Alpe D'Huez - so a very long day in the saddle and weather can play a major part but looks to be just about right.

Yesterday we read it wrong and were drenched on the final 8km climb to the Col de Vars Sad
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Er . . . you are doing all that on a bicycle . . . and all in one day?!?
Bonkers!

But this wild weather this week: might there be new snow on Tignes Glacier?
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@Jonpim, no not doing the Marmot - but the Etape du Tour - a stage of the Tour de France which is still long though not so severe, this year it starts in Briancon and finishes on the Izoard and around 15,000 take part.

Actually weather wise today's been quite good and now Friday is looking sunny but temps in single figs.
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Jonpim wrote:
Er . . . you are doing all that on a bicycle . . . and all in one day?!?
Bonkers!

But this wild weather this week: might there be new snow on Tignes Glacier?


a bit this am, but not at the bottom of the glacier



The Dauphine had an article "ra ra glacier skiing has started, isnt' it great". On the same page an article about the French ski team, training on bikes in the Jura because they didn't think the glacier was in good enough condition to ski.
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http://www.zamg.ac.at/cms/de/klima/news/zweitwaermster-juni-der-messgeschichte

Second warmest June in Austria since records began (251 years ago). Extremely dry and sunny too.

Some fairly large downpours over the last few days though and Geneva was drenched late last night. Or at least I was.
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SLF on the impact of the recent weather at altitude.

Avalanche danger in high alpine regions

http://www.slf.ch/lawinenbulletin/lawinengefahr/index_EN

On Monday night there was a small amount of precipitation. Following a quiet interim during the daytime on Tuesday, precipitation set in again from the southwest as evening approached. On Wednesday skies were for the most part heavily overcast, excluding some bright intervals in western regions, accompanied by showerlike precipitation. In southern regions there was heavy rainfall. The snowfall level on Tuesday was at approximately 3300 m, on Wednesday it dropped down to nearly 3000 m. Above approximately 3500 m, the following amounts of fresh fallen snow were registered:

- Main Alpine Ridge from Monte Rosa into the Bernina region: 50 to 70 cm;

- northern flank of the Alps from the eastern Bernese Oberland into the Glarner Alps, remaining parts of Grisons: 30 to 50 cm;

- western sector of the northern flank of the Alps, remaining parts of Valais: 10 to 30 cm.

The wind on Wednesday was blowing generally at light to moderate strength, intermittently at strong velocity, from southerly directions.

Weather forecast through Friday, 30 June

In the mountains on Thursday, skies will be heavily overcast accompanied by precipitation. This will come to an end on Thursday night. During the daytime on Friday skies will be variably cloudy. In eastern and southern regions, showerlike precipitation will recommence during the afternoon. On Wednesday night in northern regions, the snowfall level is expected to descend down to nearly 2400 m, in southern regions to approximately 2800 m. On Friday the snowfall level on both sides of the Alps will be approximately 200 m lower down. Between Wednesday evening and Friday evening above approximately 3000 m, the following amounts of fresh fallen snow are anticipated:

- northern flank of the Alps from the eastern Bernese Oberland as far as Liechtenstein, Grisons, Ticino: 30 to 60 cm;

- remaining regions of Switzerland: 10 to 30 cm.

On both days, winds will be blowing from westerly directions at moderate to strong velocity.
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http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/city?LANG=en&SI=mph&CEL=C&WMO=03065&TIME=std&CONT=ukuk&R=0&LEVEL=140&REGION=0003&LAND=__&ART=temperatur&NOREGION=0&PLZ=&PLZN=&SORT=__&TEMP=___&WETTER=__&&TYP=__&SEITE=0

Currently 2.7C on Cairngorm summit.

If only it were January the Pennines would have been buried in this set up.
Shame then that its late June Sad
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When's the average warmest day in the alps?

At a guess I'd say late July - July 26th?
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+8C here in Wengen at the moment, and raining at 1274 metres. Must be snowing above 2000 metres but will see in the morning. Pretty damn cold for this time of year!
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Weathercam wrote:
In for a very volatile week across the Alps for the rest of the week with a series of troughs and cold fronts so would not be surprised to see snow at altitudes over 2,500 even !!!


This morning - top of Eychauda 2,659m - snow level looks to be around 2,400 - I'm up early as the Col D'Izoard 2,360 is only open for cyclists from 08:00 - 10:00 so autumnal clothing, though hopefully sun will warm things up quickly.

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Above average temperatures for the Alps look like returning at the start of next week. And not raining at Henley today. So all good.
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This was at the Col D'Izoard this morning with the Casse Deserte in the foreground and mountains of the Queyras with a good dusting of snow on the horizon.

Was interesting seeing how hit and miss the precipitation had been.

And was damn chilly earlier on riding in the valley it was 3.5 degrees and on the climb 8 but very pleasant in the sunshine.

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Lovely picture Weathercam, and i hope your bum survived the ride.
Hoping for good weather this coming week in Tarentaise.
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The Alpine glaciers have been battered by heavy rain the past week.

Some, like Kaprun in Austria, lost huge amounts of snow and were closed for a whole day or two.
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Or to put it another way plenty of new snow in places like Hintertux.
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