Yes it looks like good start for anyone going to Zermatt and Cervinia this year
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
I've missed all these maps and graphs!
After all it is free
After all it is free
After a colder than average September in Austria, October was both milder (one of 25 warmest Octobers on record, +1.4C) and sunnier than average. Very dry in the south (50-90% below average), wet elsewhere (30-135% above average). Less snowfall than on average. And of course ending with a huge storm.
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Am I right in interpreting that predicted snowfall amounts have been ramped up overnight for the upcoming weekend dump? Looks like a decent covering down to valley level in most parts of the alps, though still a few days away. If it arrives and with the subsequent forecasted reasonably cold temps can we expect that it will stick to form the first base of the season?
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Actually GFS seems less optimistic for whole alps coverage but the current wepowder map is a thing of beauty
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
50-100cm of snowfall on EC over the next 10 days.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
"GFS seems less optimistic".....well the 06z GFS has swung back in line with ECM for more low pressure / troughs to break into central europe Nov 7-11th. Just like last year.
In the words of Amy Butler (even if out of context) "GFS is all over the map".
ECM is the best model in the world, and I find UKMO out to t+144 is also more reliable than GFS. In fact UKMO and GEM were ahead of the main 2 in modelling the troughs coming at the weekend.
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@Jellybeans1000, @langball yeah keep it coming
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@langball, could us mortals run GFS models for individual resorts? I normally use Meteociel for all that (what do they use?) ... Thanks
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@franga, GFS provides a huge amount of free data, so yeah that's what I use for individual resorts, along with 90% of websites out there. Not aware of any other resort options apart from YR.no using ECM data (but then that's just temps and precipitation), and Bergfex.
Just making the point that GFS has been particularily wild recently so it's better to consider a wider range of models for that key 5-10 day period when looking at general pressure set ups and weather patterns (direction of wind / jet stream, depressions etc). And for those pretty GFS precipitation maps above, it's just one run, from one model, so the numbers are going to swing about a lot.
One other thing with GFS / ECM / GEM....they all provide ensemble data, so if you want more accuracy (and less rollercoaster), then don't just rely on the Op run, instead see how it compares to the ensemble mean. All readily available on metrociel. To keep things reasonably simple, I just look at Op run and the ensemble mean run (moyennne), as opposed to the Control run, or clusters of ensemble members.
Right now there is good agreement across the model Ops and averages out to about the 9th. Low pressure, low temps and snow. But one step at a time. As Noza says, confidence lower the further out.
GFS Op, GFS Moyenne, ECM Op, ECM Moyenne @ t+168 (I like to use pressure anomalies that far out).
One more edit while I am on a roll......as way of further explanation to the graphs, you can see the Azores high pressure (red blob) is out in the mid atlantic stretching up towards Greenland, and there is also blocking (red blob) over Scandinavia. The gap between these two high pressure areas allows cooler polar maritime air in from the North. This set up is associated with a southerly jet, meaning storm depressions will be funnelled south towards the alps, but if the high pressure areas strengthen and join up across the UK for example, then it cuts off the cold air / snow.
Last edited by Poster: A snowHead on Thu 2-11-17 12:40; edited 1 time in total
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
....and the very next run GFS 12z op shuts the door by joining up the high pressure across the UK and blocking off the whole of Europe by Nov 8th.
Tant pis....it's just one GFS run, have a look at averages and other models later
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@staffsan, the high pressure blocking of Europe would mean no snow gets through
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Hope it stays cold for you Perty, Riffleberg and above should be good. May not still be able to Ski down to Chez Vrony and Findlerhof for lunch though.
After all it is free
After all it is free
The good is Noza's bonfire night storm is still on track to dump 2m (GFS random number) on Zermatt area. Anything beyond that is still unknown.
Southern and Western alps should get first proper pasting
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Ruka, Finland, opened a few more lifts last week and has 10-15% of its lifts open right now.
Village is white, but not very deep yet.
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ECM more promising for the period round 10 November this evening.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
www.wetter3.de currently showing a GFS forecast of 3m of accumulated snow over Zermatt, 1m in the Risoul/Isola2000 area and 0.6m over the Dolomites, all by Saturday 11th November in sustained dumps from the 5th.
If this comes to fruition, would that be one of the best autumn snow starts to The Alps for many years? There seems to have been so many lean starts in recent seasons.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@Snow&skifan, Maybe, or maybe not . There have been big metre+ dumps in October and November the past three season too - the question is, what happens next? It could all melt again, or it could continue snowing regularly, or it could stay cold but clear and form a horrible weak layer at the base of the snow pack.
It is good news for the high alpine and glaciers, but there's still a long way to go until the season really starts.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Yes I recall a lot of excitement in each of last two years after some big dumps early and then nothing for about 6 weeks afterwards
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Snow&skifan wrote:
www.wetter3.de currently showing a GFS forecast of 3m of accumulated snow over Zermatt, 1m in the Risoul/Isola2000 area and 0.6m over the Dolomites, all by Saturday 11th November in sustained dumps from the 5th.
If this comes to fruition, would that be one of the best autumn snow starts to The Alps for many years? There seems to have been so many lean starts in recent seasons.
The simple answer to this is no, for example last year it snowed similar to what it MIGHT snow over the coming weekend, but then, it didn't snow again until the 1st week in January.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
nozawaonsen wrote:
At present the first half of November looks relatively cool. But that could all change.
As for whether snow now could form the base for the season it rather depends on what happens between now and the end of the year.
Thanks for the video BTW. Missed it the first time round in 1995. That really was forecasting.
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Can anyone tell me which model Bergfex used as a base?
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@Bennyboy1, Bergfex uses ZAMG :" For short lead times (up to 6 hours) spatial resolution is 1x1 km (INCA model) for the Austrian area while for forecasts up to 72 hours spatial resolution is 5x5 km (ALARO model) and for the longest lead times resolution decreases to 15x15 km (ECMWF model)"
It's a great site, but for some reason in my area it seems to overcook the snowline / freeze level (ie in reality, I find the forecasted snowline a little too low)
More detail on the weekend snowfall here: https://www.weathertoski.co.uk/weather-snow/
Fraser reckons the French alps will get the least snowfall, again. We'll see, I don't mind getting "the least", as long as the least is still decent....Avoriaz for example is due 50cm according to latest GFS.
In the 5-10 day range, usual uncertainty, but UKMO, GEM keep the door open, while GFS brings the Azores back into central europe, and ECM a mixture. Average ensembles and anomalies still lean towards low temps and pressure, especially for the med / southern alps.
Note to self, I need to get out more, back next week to climb some snowy hills.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@langball, thank you. Precipitation amounts seem to fluctuate a lot.
Fingers crossed for the Sunday night dump in Austria!
According to http://www.sat24.com/foreloop.aspx?type=1 (ive been using this for a while and seems fairly accurate) it looks like some pretty significant falls in the Dolomites on Sun/Mon, can any of you knowledgeable SHs shed any light on this?
Cheers!
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
shiva_71 wrote:
According to http://www.sat24.com/foreloop.aspx?type=1 (ive been using this for a while and seems fairly accurate) it looks like some pretty significant falls in the Dolomites on Sun/Mon, can any of you knowledgeable SHs shed any light on this?
Cheers!
Hopefully not so much that it will disrupt the efficiency of their snow making operations
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Think that it is going to snow late this weekend seems pretty certain. I take the view that better snow than no snow whatever happens for the rest of the month, season. Latest seems to be a snowy week on and off throughout the Alps. If so those that can may well start their snow cannons this coming week. Those high resorts that get a reasonable fall will probably start laying the carpet on some runs
After all it is free
After all it is free
I’d be astonished if any other than the highest resorts start to run cannons. Wayyyy too risky that it turns mild.
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And I’d remind the audience that we got a heavy, quite low fall this time last year ...
That disn’t work so well
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I hope it will melt till the end of november and then Azore high all the way to the New Year and January. I predict mild, snow-less winter!
/this year I am trying to jinx it, so I genuinely want to be warm and sunny Winter.
FAQ
Poster: A snowHead
. There have been big metre+ dumps in October and November the past three season too - the question is, what happens next? It could all melt again, or it could continue snowing regularly, or it could stay cold but clear and form a horrible weak layer at the base of the snow pack.
