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The All New 17/18 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
After last weekends snow, this week has been a bit mixed with the odd light snow at altitude, however for the first day of the Christmas and New Year holidays we have been blessed with clear blue sky here in the Central Pyrenees with almost perfect conditions. Just about freezing overnight and a few degrees above during the afternoon. This is due to stay until the 26th when the next spell of cold and snowy weather will hit.

In the meantime Christmas day will be lovely for those that like snow and the sun shining Happy

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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Definitely some very fine weather about at the moment. Enough to go topless? Maybe not.



Here are some ensembles!

Temperatures set to tumble 15C in places with fresh snow on the way on 27 December (a weak band arriving late on Boxing Day in the west).

The Arlberg



Chamonix



Cairngorm



Sestriere



Eastern Pyrenees

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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Merry christmas all!

Qiuck question, ECM (yr.no) says it should be +10°c in Cham right now, but webcam looks rather cold and google (actual Google input: "what temperature is it in chamonix right now") says -4°c.

What temp is it actually? Is ECM missing micro/local climate variations or whats going on?


Last edited by Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see? on Sun 24-12-17 11:50; edited 1 time in total
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@staffsan, depends what altitude you are comparing.
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@nozawaonsen, village level.
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@nozawaonsen, that looks pretty encouraging for more high altitude dumpage during NY week non? Trouble for the lower resorts....
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@BobinCH, could be. It’s a bit early to tell. We are in a more Atlantic driven +NAO set up now than earlier in December. So although that allows more precipitation through it can be milder too.

@staffsan, apparently Chamonix has completed melted. Tant pis. Liked the place.

Meanwhile...


http://youtube.com/v/mma11q2IMJI
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!


Meteo France’s take from 21 December (obviously a few days ago now).

http://www.meteofrance.fr/actualites/56905314-enneigement-en-montagne-au-20-decembre-2017

A few points:

Northern/Southern Alps

- snow depth much better than normal for mid December. Equivalent to that normally found at the start of February.

- you have to go back to December 2012 to find similar conditions. This sort of start to winter is a once every six or seven years event, perhaps rarer.

Pyrenees

- about normal for the time of year.
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Dolomites look like they could profit from the midweek snow.

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White Christmas possible here in the Borders. snowHead
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Happy Christmas all! Very Happy
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@nozawaonsen, and to you, thanks for all the effort Very Happy
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@nozawaonsen, Happy Christmas to you too.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@nozawaonsen, Happy Christmas to you too, and thanks for this great annual thread snowHead
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
nozawaonsen, and all you weatherheads,
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Merry Christmas to all of you! (Even though it is now Boxing Day here in Australia)

Sorry I haven't been dropping in lately. Just working on some other weather based projects.


10 day EC snow accum.

From the 29th of Dec to 1st of Jan, EC shows snowfall. First the big trough on the 29th and 30th, and snow and instability in the baroclinic zone on the 31st and 1st.

This means widespread heavy snowfall across the North and South Alps, particularly to the West on the 29th and 30th.
And more Northern only snowfall on the 31st and 1st, on and off heavy snow showers.

Exciting times for the Alps on EC, again wishing you all a very merry Christmas and a nice day with your family.
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@nozawaonsen,
A very happy Christmas and best wishes for the New Year. Many thanks for the meteorology and the music and also for organising two beautiful sunny days here in Zermatt. Noooo - don’t let’s start the debate on whether sun or snow makes for the best ski holidays!
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Very happy xmas to all. Like many I view this thread all the time whilst making a few observations. Only very occasionally. Serious meteriorlogical input as we have, is fantastic. snowHead
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as someone travelling to Morzine on the 29th I'm watching every new model run with moist anticipation.

why is GFS not showing same snowfall on 29th/30th that EC is showing

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=42263&model=gfs&var=93&run=12&lid=OP&bw=[/url]
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It’s important to remember that you can still look cool in the rain.



More of that later, but over the next few days there looks like being plenty of snow to low levels 200m or lower.

This is WRF out to Thursday evening 28 December.



And more snow on Saturday into Sunday particularly to the western end of the northern Alps. But as mentioned before this is rolling in off the Atlantic and could well be much milder with a snow line up to 2000m.

By New Year’s Day the temperature looks like dropping rapidly with further snow.

FI continues to look unsettled at present. The period around 05/06 January worry keeping an eye on.
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Thanks @nozawaonsen and a very Merry Christmas to you and yours ... would a bit of rain help to solidify the snow pack (particularly if it gets colder later) or are we past that stage yet given the amount of snow lying on the ground?
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@franga, well it can, though of course it can also cause slides where the snowpack gets wet and subsequently can form rain crust which will be a weak layer when further snow falls on top of it.
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Snowing heavily in the Beaufortain. Only a few flakes were forecast.
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WRF animation of snow from 0200 this morning to 0200 on Friday.

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nozawaonsen wrote:
@franga, well it can, though of course it can also cause slides where the snowpack gets wet and subsequently can form rain crust which will be a weak layer when further snow falls on top of it.


Thanks very much
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Hello chaps and chapesses

I've been following this thread closely and it seems conditions will be great over the next week or so, so I'm thinking of a last minute powder chasing trip (3-4 days, leaving on 27th Dec).

Which resort would you head to if you were me?

Cheers!
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@recz, short notice, week between Christmas and New Year I’d pick one which would take you (accommodation wise). Weather looks less unruly on the south side.
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
This Friday into Saturday looks tricky on the northern side of the Alps. Heavy snowfall at altitude, particularly in the west, turning to heavy rain beneath about 1700-2000m accompanied at times by storm force winds. Expect lift closures. Details of course highly liable to change. Anyway snow again to low levels looking likely for New Year’s Day.
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You know it makes sense.
Yes, snow reliability is not necessarily the same thing as skiing reliability Laughing
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@nozawaonsen, saturday flight into Innsbruck could be fun or diverted....
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
There's been a very local dump over our gingerbread house. Foreboding a massivly snowy rest of the winter.

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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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^ wow! You can never eat that.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
‘Hazardous snow’. It’s a particular kind, common to England.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42490947

rolling eyes
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@HoneyBunny, is that a challenge?
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@Peter S, the original quotes are actually around the word “hazardous.” Driving conditions are hazardous wherever it snows. Not just an English thing. Newspapers in Austria are always harping on about Verkehrschaos whenever it snows here. Some countries invest more in snow clearing kit and encourage (firmly) use of winter tires than others. But it’s questionable whether that investment is worthwhile across the UK given snowfall patterns.

That said maybe not, maybe the cost to the economy is more through snow disruption than the cost of buying, maintaining the kit, training the staff and persuading everyone to buy an extra set of snow tires? A sharply aimed FOI request might get to the heart of the matter!
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I once saw 6 huge snow ploughs clearing the parking area of a shopping centre in Albertville. Les Saisies is a tiny place with loads of plant for snow clearing. British council tax payers wouldn't be happy if asked to pay for machinery needed for a few days, a few years.
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And even with big investment in road clearing, mandated use of winter tyres and plenty of experience of driving in those conditions it doesn't mean that problems don't happen. Saw a couple of examples of spectacularly poor decision-making while driving down the Zillertal valley this month, with Austria-plated cars forced to stop to fit chains in the worst possible place, one coming inches away from causing an accident between two other cars (one of which was mine).
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
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And except on Saturdays (this coming Saturday should be a good one Twisted Evil ) the volume of traffic on Alpine roads doesn't compare with that in SE England.
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I don’t see how a freedom of information request would yield any light on this matter ?
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I don’t see how a freedom of information request would yield any light on this matter ?
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