 Poster: A snowHead
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| Haggis_Trap wrote: |
^ I grew up in Aberdeen - so well aware of the effect that oil price slumps have on the local economy.
BP have laid off just 200 people from their Aberdeen total of 4000. (100 of them were contractors).
The north sea is no stranger to boom and bust. No doubt the current slump will be a challenge for the industry.
However Scotland will survive just fine (see GDP figures above) as it did in the 1980s.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-30817678
The real question is what action will the UK government take now to support the industry ?
Surely tax breaks now make sense ? So that we still have viable and buoyant oil industry when the prices inevitably rise in 2-3 years time ?
After all the oil has under written entire UK economy for the past 30 years. |
My family's from Ellon so not far away. Sadly we saw a lot of friends go out of business in the 80's when OPEC went to war with Thatcher. Unfortunately, I fear this slump is down to oversupply and an Asian slowdown rather than politicians playing games.
I hope it picks up as many friends and families run businesses up there but it's going to be very tough. The current prediction is for three years of low prices. The Scottish GDP is high but the oil money gets spent through the economy many times and Scotland will very much feel the effects. Norfolk is feeling it already and I have many friends down here worried about their jobs.
Scotland will be proteced to harm to some extent due to it's place in the union
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/mark-carney/11346331/Mark-Carney-Falling-oil-price-negative-shock-for-Scotland.html
Nobody cares about Norfolk though so we'll probably be stuffed.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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^ the current slump is simply because the Saudis want to increase their market share in the longer term.
they will cut production when it suits them (i.e the US shale gas industry has gone bankrupt and the banks wont refinance it).
Peston has a good blog on todays BBC
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30827910
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@JohnnyC, it could all have changed by then. I don't think Switzerland could manage for long with such an exchange rate. Their industry would be crippled, especially the likes Stadler the railway train manufacturer that exports all over Europe.
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@JohnnyC, or Italy?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Yes, we considered Italy, but from a holiday standpoint, Austria and Switzerland feel more like Christmas than the others. It's important to us; we are from Southern California where we never see snow, except on ski trips.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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 Heading off on Saturday for the first of my 3 trips to CH. Why didn't they consult me on timing?
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| Haggis_Trap wrote: |
^ the current slump is simply because the Saudis want to increase their market share in the longer term.
they will cut production when it suits them (i.e the US shale gas industry has gone bankrupt and the banks wont refinance it).
Peston has a good blog on todays BBC
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30827910 |
Just watching the 6 o'clock news. Main headline is BP cuts and effects on Scotland.
Unfortunately shale gas reserves are huge, particularly in Canada. I think Aberdeen is in a much healthier place to deal with things than in 1986 as they are now very much a world centre of technology and expertise in the industry rather simply a base for the North Sea. I think you're right about reducing taxes in the industry. We tax it to high heaven when things are going well. We need to reduce them now things are difficult.
On a positive note, Glenshee should have a good base after this week.
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| cameronphillips2000 wrote: |
| ^ On a positive note, Glenshee should have a good base after this week. |
Even I've been looking at Glencoe - never skied in Scotland (did a day once at Ski Weardale in England which was OK) - and when it's a nice day (can be infrequent) it looks quite good from the videos I watched on You Tube
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@DixieDean, I've skied Cairngorm and really enjoyed it, going back for a weekend later in the year, I've never skied Glenco, but folks on here seem to rate it very highly!
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[quote="cameronphillips2000"]
| Haggis_Trap wrote: |
Unfortunately shale gas reserves are huge, particularly in Canada. I think Aberdeen is in a much healthier place to deal with things than in 1986 as they are now very much a world centre of technology and expertise in the industry rather simply a base for the North Sea. I think you're right about reducing taxes in the industry. We tax it to high heaven when things are going well. We need to reduce them now things are difficult.
On a positive note, Glenshee should have a good base after this week. |
Shale costs 90-100 dollars a barrel to extract.
There is loads of it worldwide, even here in uk
But the oil firms are desperaste to avoid it as it uplift costs are so high.
As the usa is now finding out the hard way...
As for glenshee, yip the 3 valleys should be in great condition for weekend 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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have we wandered off topic 
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Mmmm quite a bit of thread drift here (again  ).
Back on topic I wonder how much Cristal is being quietly supped tonight in Geneva/Zurich by those who got a whisper in the ear.
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[quote="Haggis_Trap"][quote="cameronphillips2000"]
| Haggis_Trap wrote: |
Unfortunately shale gas reserves are huge, particularly in Canada. I think Aberdeen is in a much healthier place to deal with things than in 1986 as they are now very much a world centre of technology and expertise in the industry rather simply a base for the North Sea. I think you're right about reducing taxes in the industry. We tax it to high heaven when things are going well. We need to reduce them now things are difficult.
On a positive note, Glenshee should have a good base after this week. |
Shale costs 90-100 dollars a barrel to extract.
There is loads of it worldwide, even here in uk
But the oil firms are desperaste to avoid it as it uplift costs are so high.
As the usa is now finding out the hard way...
If only it were just about economics. America loves cheap energy, but it doesn't like being dependant on Arabs. It will be interesting to see how it all pans out nearer elections.
,
Meanwhile the continual combustion of fossils fuels increasing levels of CO2 in the atmosphere will, no doubt bring very warm spell to Europe in a few weeks, destroying our beloved pistes in Glenshee and further afield. Invest in companies making snow cannons..........
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You know it makes sense.
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Great. I was going to change £650 into Francs tomorrow morning 
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Why did Switzerland do this?
That is what we should be focussed on.
Something's going on or about to go down. Best guess Greece is going to be leaving Euro imminently. That will cause Euro meltdown CHF doesn't want to be part of
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Poster: A snowHead
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Another stupid question. ( i have been drinking. ).
Why all these sudden calls for tax breaks? If my companies revenue stream starts making less money hmrc aren't going to cut my vat and other taxes.
Simple view, either a company is making a profit or not.
Though i understand it's not that simple.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Quote: |
| Why did Switzerland do this? |
^ good question.
best guess seems to be EU about to introduce quantitative easing ?
UKIP voting brits like to have wet dreams about a melt down in the euro zone.
however actually its a very strong currency
over the last 10 years the euro has significantly out performed the £.
though it is probably over due a correction now ?
RE : tax breaks. someone went off topic and we were talking about oil
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@Haggis_Trap, currencies don't "perform"....
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@peanuthead, as @Haggis_Trap, alludes, CH has been buying up € amongst others to depress the CHF. If the ECB suddenly start printing €s, the SNB might as well just start transferring money to the ECB, making a bigger mockery of the whole farce that is FX.
So they pulled the pin, no doubt reserving the option (sic) to replace it once things have stabilised following €QE.
Gold standard anyone?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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As one who only skis in CH, I think it's a good thing. We've been living in cloud cuckoo land for too long. This won't make much difference to the average visitor, but it gets us back to reality. Sterling will do ok, and if it doesn't we've only got ourselves to blame.
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@telford_mike, hmmm, but if you look at real life purchase price parity, this just sends things even more out of kilter.
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@under a new name, confidence is everything - investors trust the Swissies to repay. Not so much the rest of us I guess
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@Haggis_Trap, ah, fond memories of that graph....
I set up my business on that nice wee stable-looking plateau in early 2008, then had my first winter clients a few months later...
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| ansta1 wrote: |
Another stupid question. ( i have been drinking. ).
Why all these sudden calls for tax breaks? If my companies revenue stream starts making less money hmrc aren't going to cut my vat and other taxes.
Simple view, either a company is making a profit or not.
Though i understand it's not that simple. |
Welfare for the rich; austerity for the poor. It's been going on for centuries.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Now CHF1.29 / GBP 
Better get used to it.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Unintended consequences, or more really just collateral damage:
- "The Swiss Market Index (SMI) of equities slid as much as 14 percent, the biggest decline since 1988, and Swatch Group (UHR) AG, tumbled."
- "Holcim Ltd., the world’s biggest cement maker, dropped 11 percent."
- and... a lot of Polish home loans are apparently denominated in CHF. That will hurt.
...and one more: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-15/new-zealand-currency-broker-closes-on-losses-after-swiss-shock.html
A lot of banks and brokers would have taken a large hit.
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@ALQ, nope. Currency trading performs. Currencies, per se, do not.
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You know it makes sense.
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@telford_mike, it occurs to me, being far too early up, that the "market" ultimately wrong as always, believes that everyone else will buy CHFs as a safe haven currency, therefore it will remain strong.
It's also, by definition entirely liquid, so if you have (well, anachronistically) "hot roubles" it was any easy way to add into the cooling/laundering mix.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| ulmerhutte wrote: |
- "The Swiss Market Index (SMI) of equities slid as much as 14 percent, the biggest decline since 1988, and Swatch Group (UHR) AG, tumbled."
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Not for me, my Swiss shares just went up a bit in EUR terms.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Cheese-melting tossers...........
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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The Euro may has been strong against the Pound since the crisis - but is this because policy and a free floating pound was what was required to rescue our economy from the ravages of mismanagement, overspending, over borrowing and the banking crisis? If each of the Eurozone countries had had a currency that could float would the likes of Greece, Spain, Portugal France and Italy be in the state they are in today? The Mark would have been super strong (until no one could afford a BM/Merc/Audi). The Euro is a massive political project which will not be allowed to fail until it causes civil war/strife. If, when it was introduced, the entry conditions had been strict and applied it would have generally been a strong currency which could then have built the number of members slowly and rivalled the dollar. However, it would only have had about 4 members at the start - and that wasn't the political dream.
Greece will be the first step.......
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Yes, just wait until you see the size of the QE now required pull to the eurozone out of deflation! The ECB has sat on its hands ever since 2012 when there were advance deflation warnings but couldn't do anything because of German resistance to 'printing money'. Won't be pretty, but the cheap euro will mean more and longer holidays! Excellent.
Last edited by You need to Login to know who's really who. on Fri 16-01-15 10:07; edited 1 time in total
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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When I bought my apartment I bought the euros at 1.66 to the pound. January 2002, when the euro was brand new.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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| pam w wrote: |
| When I bought my apartment I bought the euros at 1.66 to the pound. January 2002, when the euro was brand new. |
Those were the days! I also had an exchange rate of 1.60-something, might have been 1.64 IIRC, when we signed the contract for our place in Les Arcs in November 2000.
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| under a new name wrote: |
@telford_mike, it occurs to me, being far too early up, that the "market" ultimately wrong as always, believes that everyone else will buy CHFs as a safe haven currency, therefore it will remain strong.
It's also, by definition entirely liquid, so if you have (well, anachronistically) "hot roubles" it was any easy way to add into the cooling/laundering mix. |
I do think that the negative rates will make some people think twice before buying CHF paper to be honest, and I see that the Swissie has retreated a few % from its peaks yesterday. I'd still have CHF as a backstop, but where else to go? Gold looks cheap but very risky; USD? GBP?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| chocksaway wrote: |
The Euro may has been strong against the Pound since the crisis - but is this because policy and a free floating pound was what was required to rescue our economy from the ravages of mismanagement, overspending, over borrowing and the banking crisis? If each of the Eurozone countries had had a currency that could float would the likes of Greece, Spain, Portugal France and Italy be in the state they are in today? The Mark would have been super strong (until no one could afford a BM/Merc/Audi). The Euro is a massive political project which will not be allowed to fail until it causes civil war/strife. If, when it was introduced, the entry conditions had been strict and applied it would have generally been a strong currency which could then have built the number of members slowly and rivalled the dollar. However, it would only have had about 4 members at the start - and that wasn't the political dream.
Greece will be the first step....... |
Impossible to say if any of those nations would have been better off (longer term) out of the EU.
All of them had underlying financial problems which fundamentally caused their various issues.
Their problems would probably have eventually happened in or out of the EU ?
Despite the crash of 2008 who is to say the stability of the euro wont help them longer term ?
The alternative for them might have been devalued currencies or even massive crashes (such as the Argentine peso in 2002).
Which is arguably just as bad and damaging.
Argentina are still paying for that 12 year later!
And lack of strong currency is one of their problems (i.e locals converting their pay into USD$ to avoid hyper inflation)
No doubt the Swiss Franc is valued artificially high because people see it as a safe currency.
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Thomas Cook still have Francs at £1.46
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FAQ
