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Low cost fares go down as well as up

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
My experience with low cost airlines has always been to get in early for the cheapest fares and the closer you get to the departure date the more expensive it gets. So as I was travelling over the half term break I booked my flights back about the 10th November, which I did'nt think was particuarly early at the time. Anyway, here's a breakdown of what I paid for a return flight from Dublin to Grenoble out on 16th Feb and back 23rd Feb with Ryan Air.

PAYMENT DETAILS

********65.98 EUR Total Fare

********65.94 EUR Taxes, Fees & Charges

*********4.00 EUR Passenger Fee: EU 261 Levy

********12.00 EUR Passenger Fee: Web Check in

*********0.50 EUR Passenger Fee: ETS

********30.00 EUR Passenger Fee: Checked Bag(s)

********12.00 EUR Passenger Fee: Administration Fee

*******190.42 EUR Total Paid


FX rate : 0.84939 GBP
Total Paid in card holders currency : 161.74 GBP


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I bought several of these as it was to be a family trip but to cut a long story short, I had some withdrawals over the Xmas period Sad I have a separate thread on trying to get rid of these tickets - see
http://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=96223

But that's not the reason for this post. I began reguarly checking the price of these flights and although the return flight initally went up, with warnings of "last 2 seats at this price" attached, it along with the outward flight has since fallen steeply. You could buy a return flight this morning with a hold bag for 112 Eur Shocked
This is probably rare but I was thinking would it be a good idea to have some sort of a flight watch thread going where sHs could check what's doing what?
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
easyJet will give you a credit for the difference if prices go down after you book. If you ask. Not sure about Ryanair though.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
That's normal. the high cost seats don't sell, so they try to shift them before take off. A bit like turning up at an hotel at 6 pm. and asking how much you can get a room for.
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pam w, I didnt know that.

Ibex, We went to Barcelona in September - booked 5 tickets with Ryan Air then a few weeks later my other Sister decided to come aswell (work pressures had changed) and her ticket was cheaper.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Don't check the prices repeatedly. They log your ip the first time round so when you come back to check the price it recognises you and adds ten or so per cent, so you panic and book it. Check from another ip and it'll magically be the cheaper price again.
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Given people have a tendency to doubt each other, here's a link backing that up: http://sosconso.blog.lemonde.fr/2013/01/24/pourquoi-les-prix-des-trains-et-des-avions-varient-dune-minute-a-lautre-suite/
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
pam w wrote:
easyJet will give you a credit for the difference if prices go down after you book. If you ask. Not sure about Ryanair though.


That is, and isnt true. They will, but not if the reduction in fare is due to any promotional offer they may have. Unfortunately they run more promotions than anyone else in the business so you can all but guarantee that any reduction will fall under a promotional banner somewhere!
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
albinomountainbadger,

I have heard that before but how does it work when, as I understand it and I am no expert, most people do not have fixed IP addresses ? Does that mean that if you disconnect your router from the phoneline between checking, and you presumably get allocated a different IP address 2 minutes later they cannot do what you said ? How does that work if you use mobile internet ?
I am genuinely interested to know more about this because I book quite a lot of easyjet, and sometimes Ryanair flights, and to be honest that thing about "only 2 left at this price" does probably push me into getting on and booking.
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Shimmy Alcott wrote:
pam w, I didnt know that
+1.
And yes I've seen them come down too. I assume it's some complicated formula based on demand. Maybe.
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Ski the Net with snowHeads
skitow, I would have thought cookies were the issue, in which case clearing them (and, perhaps, other history) might help? If it is cookies, simply using a different machine would be enough.
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Yellow Pyranha,
No, the article in albinomountainbadger 's second post definitely refers to IP tracking. My french is not brilliant but they do refer to smartphones too in it.
Like I said I am just interested for my own benefit really, and hopefully shave a bit more off easyjet et al Madeye-Smiley
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
skitow, Oh, well, I was hoping someone with more knowledge than I have would come along and confirm it is cookies - they were mentioned in a R4 programme recently about their use in 'personalised pricing'. It would be nice, since they are probably easier to overcome. Hey, ho,
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Yellow Pyranha,

I did look a bit further into it and as far I could understand there is some sort of reference number identifying the browser installed on your computer, which is not really IP adress tracking ?, I got a bit lost in the techno babble after that so just like you "I was hoping someone with more knowledge than I have would come along".
ski holidays
 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
albinomountainbadger, I’ve read that but it’s referring to short term changes ie, you check the price, go have a cup of tea, and come back 10 mins later, check again and it’s gone up because it knows you're interested. That has never happened to me, but I would be interested to know if someone else has experienced it and from who. What I’m interested in is the patterns over weeks and months from maybe 6 months out.

I saw the price of my return flight go steadily up over the past 4 weeks, (the outward flight dropped ages ago and has never recovered) with the "only 2 seats left at this rate" used at times. Now it has dropped significantly. Has demand dried up?? No more customers?? Looks like it. Would a thread for these bargains from real sHs be useful, workable? Eg, You can actually buy flights today from Gatwick via Dublin to Grenoble and back for about half the price of going direct from Stansted for 16th -23rd Feb.
ski holidays
 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Ibex,

There was an article in, I think, the Sunday Times about this a couple of years ago and they tracked the price of several flights. As I remember the prices started very low at several months pre-flight, went up then down, but not to below the "first day price", and then up sharply to their highest level in the last couple of days. But that was in the days when it was possible to get to Grenoble for 1p all in....
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Quote:

That has never happened to me,

never happened to me, either. In a fairly frenzied couple of days emailing, phoning and comparing easyJet flight prices over several routes, for a holiday at Easter, the easyJet website was showing exactly the same prices, at the same time, to me, my son and my daughter. The telephone conversations would have been even more tricky if we'd all been looking at different prices for the same flights. And I had been looking at them for a few days before they got involved, trying to work out the trade offs between travelling on less busy days but having accommodation complications. So I'm not sure I believe the stories about their monitoring your web activity and putting up prices more than for others. Not for easyJet, anyway.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
skitow, Don't know what the first day price was. I must have bought at the early peak Embarassed An interesting observation though.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Just to reminisce (?), this is what Ryanair used to be like, you would put up with a lot for that Madeye-Smiley


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skitow, Brilliant Very Happy You can't go much lower than that!! I paid 3,235 times more than you Shocked I see you bought it in June for Dec. Were you watching for their winter flights to go on on sale?
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
The automatic yield programmes will adjust prices as they sell seats - if demand sows they may reduce. Also remember if you are booking for a large party the number may put you up into the next tariff - and charge the higher price for all the seats. So it can be worth making 2 bookings.
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Ibex,

Its done withthe cookies. Clear your PC of all cookies and try again.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Ibex, To be honest I can't remember the exact situation but there does not seem to be anything like that around now. With 5 to pay for you get sort of expert at it which is why I was so interested in the IP address thing. We actually have fixed IP addresses at home and work. At home because we have an office in the house and at work for the alarm system and security cameras, so if what he is saying is right I need to do something differently.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
stanton wrote:
Ibex,

Its done withthe cookies. Clear your PC of all cookies and try again.


Are you sure about that ? So my fixed IP addresses will make no difference as long as I clear the cookies ?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
stanton, The point I'm trying to make is, I would pay approx half today for the same flights I booked nearly 3 months ago. I don't think that's got anything to do with cookies. I'd believe chocksaway's on the money with his automatic yield programmes. But they do weave interesting patterns and that's where I believe us sHs could go if we're looking a bargain snowHead
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 Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
They are quite clear in the article that it is your IP Address. This is shared amongst your household so no point just using another computer. I think that your address is generally renewed by the ISP each 24hours or so, not sure really.
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 snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
It isn't your IP address. Every networked device on the planet has a unique hard coded MAC address (Media Access Control.) You can disconnect your router and pick up a new dynamic IP address from your SP, wipe all your cookies, but your MAC address will still be the same. Just use one machine to check and another to book.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
skitow wrote:
Ibex, To be honest I can't remember the exact situation but there does not seem to be anything like that around now. With 5 to pay for you get sort of expert at it which is why I was so interested in the IP address thing. We actually have fixed IP addresses at home and work. At home because we have an office in the house and at work for the alarm system and security cameras, so if what he is saying is right I need to do something differently.


Although most people have a dynamic IP address, it doesn't actually change very often unless you leave your router disconnected for several hours.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Thornyhill wrote:
It isn't your IP address. Every networked device on the planet has a unique hard coded MAC address (Media Access Control.) You can disconnect your router and pick up a new dynamic IP address from your SP, wipe all your cookies, but your MAC address will still be the same. Just use one machine to check and another to book.


Mac address are NOT propagated on to the internet. Only the host router will see the connected computer.
This is true of ipv4

The up and coming ipv6 is totally different though
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Yield management ie monitoring the popularity of requests hs to be the most important feature in raising prices. However, there can be no doubting that companies will use anything they can in order to get a sale, so we should be aware of cookies and IP monitoring and try to avoid them where possible.

I believe IP monitoring is/will become more prevalent given that cookies are becoming less useful:
1) new regulations on cookies mean we have to actively choose to accept them.
2) many browsers have a cloaked mode which rejects cookies
3) programs are widely available to regularly and easily wipe cookies
4) making a reservation or search through a scanner such as expedia or skyscanner will not employ your cookie on the airline site.


It's also interesting to note that the SNCF and other companies in the article I previously posted are very keen to refute the accusation they monitor IP addresses, which means they know full well the technology exists but have - for the moment - not chosen to employ it.

As for a fall in prices, well they say that this can only happen if a large group cancels and their seats are re-released into the booking pool. Personally I find it a bit far-fwetched to believe this would happen so frequently therefore something else must be at play.
ski holidays
 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Shock horror prices react to supply and demand. As mentioned above MAC addresses can't be tracked with IPv4. If cookies then simply use a different browser as cookies are associated with a browser not a host machine or delete cookies. IP addresses can be dynamic but over a longish period so could be used, try rebooting router or try a VPN services to compare prices. They could be using flash cookies, which are harder for a user to delete or HTML 5 local storage. Can't say I've ever noticed prices being rigged upwards when I'm looking to book flights, I recently spent 4 -5 hours one evening on ryanair website booking several flights. Involved lots of repeated request as I was comparing dates and alternate routes, prices for same date and route stayed stable throughout. Managed to get one flight from Austria to London for €16 including fees and taxes and was only booked 2 weeks before flight, not bad.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
waynos, the difference being that they react to demand, yes, but not supply...
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Update on the the present price of the flights I bought on 10 Nov. 190 euros They continue to fall and we're less than 3 weeks away from take off Shocked
The Euro is gaining ground on sterling but I don't know how much effect this would have on the price which is quoted in Euros.
Price details as of this morning 29/01/13

Depart
Dublin T1 14:25
Arrive
Grenoble 17:40
1 x Adult 17.74 EUR

Fare: 17.74 EUR
EU 261 Levy: 2.00 EUR
Web Check in: 6.00 EUR
ETS Levy: 0.25 EUR
Administration Fee: 6.00 EUR
Taxes/Fees: 0.00 EUR
Total Price: 31.99 EUR
No Taxes
Depart
Grenoble 18:20
Arrive
Dublin T1 19:30
1 x Adult 33.74 EUR

Fare: 33.74 EUR
EU 261 Levy: 2.00 EUR
Web Check in: 6.00 EUR
ETS Levy: 0.25 EUR
Administration Fee: 6.00 EUR
Taxes/Fees: 0.00 EUR
Total Price: 47.99 EUR
Total 79.98 EUR
Optional charges such as Credit Card Fees of 2% of the total transaction value and checked baggage fees are not included.
ski holidays
 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
No time to read all of these but it's certainly something that I've found in the past.
The low-cost airlines want people to believe that prices will only go up, and therefore panic you into buying as early as possible.
I'm planning a half-term trip to Geneva. I was ready to pay £125 return and have just seen the price drop to £110! But, having said that, it was quite a bit cheaper two months ago...
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Neil Neige,
Quote:

The low-cost airlines want people to believe that prices will only go up, and therefore panic you into buying as early as possible.

I've also felt pressured to buy as early as possible. Once I've bought a flight I don't think I've ever gone back to check its price again. How many people do? They may get a surprise. Granted, in my case Michael O' Leary has severly over estimated the demand for French half-term ski holidays this year in the Republic of Ireland and set his earlier prices accordingly but there are similar patterns, though not as marked, across the UK as well. So how can we avoid being panicked into buying at the wrong time?
The following is just a thought, which could be developed or maybe is a load of old shyte, but I'll put it out there anyway.

We are thousands of sHs. If we get a bargain or spot a bargain, then why not have a thread where we can share it with our fellow sHs?

You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em,
Know when to walk away and know when to run. wink
ski holidays
 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Bumping this as just seen a report on the practice of IP tracking and using cookies.

A French version of Watchdog, "On est pas le pigeons" ('We're not suckers'), asked an IT guy what he thought and he said although IP tracking exists cookies have become the real problem for flight sites. He wrote a script to make 200 hundred flight enquiries on a variety of sites, each three times.
1) First visit - normal
2) Second vist - normal
3) Third visit - cookies deleted/wiped.

On nearly every occasion the price of the second visit was higher than the first.
On nearly every occasion where the second visit had seen the price increase, the third visit saw it reduced to be the same as the first again!

His opinion was that such a thing happening by chance is impossible.

He went on to say that in the US Amazon track people to change the price of books, and Staples change the price of their items according to how near the site visitor is to one of their competitor's shops. He didn't say it, but the latter would be impossible with cookies unless the user is signed in and has already submitted their address, so must rely on IP addresses. A combination of methods is therefore being used to fiddle prices.

The conclusion of the presenter was that if you can't buy your flights on the first visit, unplug and reconnect your router to change the IP address and then launch your browser in private navigation mode to prevent cookies being used and read (you can also delete cookies if you know how to, but this program isn't aimed at techy people).

It must be illegal in France as a French government agency, the DGCCRF, is currently holding a very wide-reaching inquest and it's not just limited to flight sites.
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albinomountainbadger wrote:


He went on to say that in the US Amazon track people to change the price of books, and Staples change the price of their items according to how near the site visitor is to one of their competitor's shops. He didn't say it, but the latter would be impossible with cookies unless the user is signed in and has already submitted their address, so must rely on IP addresses. A combination of methods is therefore being used to fiddle prices.


I would be very surprised if they try to use IP addresses, since those generally only tell you who your ISP is, and any physical address you get will be for one of their servers ( I occasionally get targeted ads which think I'm in Sheffield, being with Plusnet).
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
alex_heney, perhaps things are done differently in the US? The guy didn't elaborate so I can't say. You can't get people's physical address from cookies though, that's certain.

Had a strange experience last week here, for about 4 hours my portable wifi hotspot was convinced it was at my old address 200 miles away. How could what is essentially a phone be connected to a tower, and transmitting data to/from that tower, but report that it's connected to another tower?
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