 Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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I didn't get much further than the "heavy snow" bit.
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Same here 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Must get the boiler replaced....
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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says two things to me
1- good for skiing
2- buy gas and utilities shares now 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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don't they (or someone similiar) predict this every year?
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Isn't this the same met office that predicted a long very hot Summer this year 
CP
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| gregh wrote: |
| don't they (or someone similar) predict this every year? |
Not the Met Office, for them to predict below average winter temperatures is indeed noteworthy, doesn't do their global warming credentials much good! 
Seriously though, the Met Office have at least a couple of experimental forecast methods for long range forecasting for winter. Firstly they issue an NAO forecast based on sea surface temperatures earlier in the year, and the Met Office is predicting a strongly negative NAO Winter that *could* put winter 2005/06 in with the coldest third of winters in the 1961-91 period which they use for current average temperatures. However a couple of notes of caution, while a negative NAO winter greatly increases the odds of a blocked cold winter, it does not make it a cert to be cold, and colder doesn't mean snowier always either. Winter 2003 saw below average temperatures in Scotland, and one of the poorest Scottish Ski Seasons ever as a winter drought meant we were pretty much skiing on October's base in mid April !! 
The Met Office also have a dynamic long range forecasting model which involves running models well into the future and building an ensemble forecast, it basically gives an indication of the likely probabilities of certain outcomes. Now this has been rooting for a milder winter during the summer, but apparently the article in the Telegraph came around because the long range dynamic model has turned to back up the NAO forecast of a below average temperature winter. This forecast will not be in the public domain till later this month, but if both Met Office forecasts go for a cold snowy winter, take note, that is a unique event in recent times!
Now a negative NAO winter with suitably located blocking high pressure could mean ££££££££££££s for the Scottish Resorts and a bumper season, such as 2001, but such synoptics tend to not be so favourable for large tracts of the Alps. The Scottish Areas really do need a bumper season, because they have always relied on the good years to see them through the not so good, and indeed the damn right ugly seasons. The 2001 season ranks right up there in terms of conditions, esp in the East, but Foot and Mouth trashed the season, left the slopes deserted even at peak times and robbed the ski areas of the vital boost to income such a season should have provided. The result the ski areas didn't have the usual good season cushion to get through a few lean winters, which ultimately brought down the Glenshee Chairlift Company.
One last thoughts on winter forecasts though, Metcheck have issued an initial discussion favouring a milder than average winter, so who knows. However, when many forecasting sites talk about below or above average temperatures, they do so with reference to the Central England Temperature (CET) record, from a Scottish snowsports perspective, in terms of CET, winter 2001 was an above average temperature winter!! 
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