 Poster: A snowHead
|
One of the things I have learned on this thread is about 'fantasy island'. Which, if I have understood correctly, means a weather forecast for anything more than about 5 - 7 days hence. Contributors understandably caveat long term outlooks by reference to FI, and the name in itself suggests something make-believe: a punt in the dark.
But my impression over the last few months is that 'FI' forecasts have actually been pretty good - the more so on ECM which often seems to tonk GFS.
So is FI really that, or is it in fact more likely than not to be accurate?
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
|
Ah a good question, anyone looking at the Jungfrau region threads will note that I do fairly frequently do a long range forecast up to two weeks, the short range up to a week is accurate roughly 90% of the time occasionally due to the mountains and the way it affects weather locally I may get windspeeds wrong or I may under or over estimate snowfall, also when a resort is arround the freezing level it's not certain weather you will get rain or snow, the longer range forecast is less accurate, a ting change in wind direction or air pressure often means that the predicted weather just misses the target region and you get something else instead In general I'd say I get about 70% accuracy on long range forecasts up to two weeks but it's only a guide a slight change in wind speed might mean that I get the right snowfall but that it arrives a day earlier or later than I expected.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
|
Thanks D G Orf. 70% is a good percentage, and does not serve a 'fantasy' label which may mislead. The Island of Doubt would be a better phrase.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
|
pjd, I can only get that good with one specific area because I've been going there my whole life and thus have an idea as to what is and isn't likely to occur given the pressure,temp, humidity and so on, unfortunately I'm still dependant on the various weather computers to do the number crunching and they don't always get it right, sometimes I will look at long range computer predictions and realise theres something wrong, e.g +15C over the alps in early Jan is unlikely, usually if I go back the next day it will have been changed and read +1.5C for example, the skill is in interpreting the data
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
|
Noted D G Orf, I wonder what say GFS's hit rate is generally
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
Fantasy Island is Hokkaido, Japan. And it's no fantasy.
Consistently high volumes of snow between November and March for each of the 6 winters I've been playing here, with a low SD.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FAQ