 Poster: A snowHead
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hi guys, we are travelling down january 1st for 7 days of playing tennis!!! i dont think i,m even half full !!!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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You should be ok. New years day 2008 and 2009 were perfect conditions in Morzine with loads of snow and blue skies.
2010 however was a different story with quite a bit of rain low down around this period. The snow held up generally well though and the skiing was bearable (just).
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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thanks
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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mobskaardal, not sure who the "experts" you were referring to were? Certainly there is a fair amount to suggest that really big volcanic eruptions in the past have lead to colder winters in the following years (eg Mount Pinatubo). Not sure if the Icelandic eruption was big enough to do so? We'll see.
Looks like the colder weather in the alps will last for much of the next week and should bring snow down below 2000m in some places, especially in the next day or two. After that most of the GFS runs seem to agree on a return to average autumn temperatures. And going beyond that it gets a bit muddled...
In the UK there's been a further sprinkle of autumn snow in Scotland.
There was incidentally an interesting chart flagged up on the TWO forum earlier this week.
Which shows high pressure dominating over Greenland. A similar "blocking" pattern established itself last year and contributed to the cold winter we had. So interesting to see whether it does indeed develop again this year.
Last edited by You need to Login to know who's really who. on Sun 26-09-10 18:53; edited 1 time in total
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Snowing quite hard in parts of the Alps this morning...
00z GFS runs now arguing for a more prolonged below average cold spell in the Alps running on for the next fortnight, but not necessarily with a great deal of confidence, but the coming week looks decidedly cold.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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| Quote: |
the coming week looks decidedly cold.
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and there was me hoping to be a'wandering, my knapsack on my back. In my lederhosen.
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ust looked on the Avoriaz webcam and there is snow on the ground, maybe a few cm but still snow! Not bad for the end of September, it will all be gone rather soon i imagine though.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Just quickly looking back over Autumn and early Winter last season:
- Mid October was really rather cold with snow. Hintertux was open to mid level. It stayed fairly cold through most of the rest of October.
- Early November brought the next wave of cold and snow.
BUT
- The rest of November was warm, windy and wet... Almost all the snow that October had brought, November took away...
- Numerous ski resorts put back their opening dates.
THEN
- Mid December it got cold, it snowed and it kept getting cold!!
- And the season was... fine. Though despite the cold and snow in the UK and the epic Scottish season I don't think it would be remembered as a classic in the Alps. Not bad and there were plenty of good days, but overall not outstanding.
Anyway that's how I remember it. 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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nozawaonsen, That's how I remember it, definitely not an outstanding season by any means but still fun.
I'd like to see a repeat of 2005/2006 but without my knee being wiped out in the March while teaching beginners on slopes that were filling up faster than they could piste it! 
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Further out the 12z GFS runs are a real mess after about ten days. It's obviously not that unusual for the different runs to diverge after a few days, but over the last day the haupt and kontrol are flip flopping and taken turns to go for way above then below average temperatures.
By around the 07 October depending on how it evolves the current run is suggesting either just above freezing at about 01C at 1800m or a balmy 17C...
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Does anyone have a link to those graphs which showed precipitation vs temperature over a course of 7 or 10 days? IIRC, if you changed the url to be the gps coordinates it would show you the forecasts for that location.
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You know it makes sense.
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| Timmaah wrote: |
| Does anyone have a link to those graphs which showed precipitation vs temperature over a course of 7 or 10 days? IIRC, if you changed the url to be the gps coordinates it would show you the forecasts for that location. |
See the beginners guide sticky in this forum, or I have a few here...
http://www.gregh.co.uk/php/gfsruns.php
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Samerberg Sue,
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I'd like to see a repeat of 2005/2006
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I so agree sorry its a bit off thread but March 2006 was one of the best ever, pic below was my car at 1600m took us 2 hours to dig it out
O and it was a VW people carrier so you can guage the depth of the snow
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Poster: A snowHead
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How do I get a graph for my location, ie. Portrush, Northern Ireland?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Can you post a link for Manchester please?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Can you post a link for Manchester please?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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Cheers folks, think I have a fair idea, but can someone explain again?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Quick version. Sorry if I there are mistakes.
- Left hand column is temp in C. Right hand is rain in mm.
- Red line is 30 year average temperature.
- Green (haupt) is a high res run. Has a tendency to jump around a bit. Increased accuracy means it is delicate.
- Blue (kontrol) is a lower res run. Slightly less accuracy, but less liable to bounce around.
- All the rest are runs using slightly different start data.
- Anything over three days is liable to significant change.
- The more the lines coincide the more confidence you can choose to have (the haupt and kontrol running together is normally a good sign and the converse is true too).
- There are four runs a day 06z, 12z, 18z, 00z. All are issued about 6 hours late (ie 18z comes out at around 00z or z+1 in BST)
Very happy to stand corrected.
Today incidentally saw the coldest overnight September temps recorded in the UK since 1992.
Last edited by You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net. on Sun 26-09-10 18:20; edited 1 time in total
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In Manchester this morning it was 3c, went for a lovely walk and even climbed up through a waterfall!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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nozawaonsen,
Is the grey some kind of average?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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johnboy, correct. Grey is avg of all the runs ('the wigglies'), and the red (on the temp scale) is an average of the last 30 years (well, not really, but it's a bit like that).
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johnboy, yes like ChrisWo, says, but be careful, the average is just that- the average of all the runs. Not necessarily the most probable. Keep a close eye on what the haupt and kontrol are up to...
The last few runs incidentally have been pushing towards another cold period in the Alps in the second week of October, especially in the East, but still a long way from anything certain...
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Here is an interesting piece by meteorologist Philip Eden on www.weatheronline.co.uk
El Niño and La Niña- Do they affect Europe?
Meanwhile the ensemble runs anything more than a week out are a real mess. Being offered either -2C or 16C in the Alps at 1500m by mid October...
Before then temps are going to get above average and there is a good chance of rain on Tuesday and Wednesday, which might bring some snow up high (glaciers) but I suspect will probably wash away any that might still be around at any lower altitudes.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Thats a good article that supports my stand on the whole el nina/europe argument, however a good scientist will put an equally good argument for an effect!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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nozawaonsen, cold spell in the Alps in october or not, it is going to be pretty irrelevent to how the ski season shapes up, cold snap end of November and things start to get more interesting!
interesting article here, entitled Which long range forecast do you trust?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| Quote: |
nozawaonsen, cold spell in the Alps in october or not, it is going to be pretty irrelevent to how the ski season shapes up, cold snap end of November and things start to get more interesting!
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For sure! You only need to look back to the early snowfall last October which looked pretty but all melted away to nothing in November...
I'm following it largely out of interest to see how it evolves and see if any of the early forecasts manage to get anywhere close.
I'd seen that competition, but agree with a number of comments in the article about the difficulty of judging accurately! Interesting though.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Netweather.tv have put out what amounts to a teaser for their winter forecast for the UK.
November: colder and drier than average, possible wintry weather in some parts of UK.
December: colder and drier than average - especially cold in SE England
January: colder and drier than average - though wetter than average in Western Scotland
The full forecast will come out later in the month.
October incidentally they forecast to be wetter and warmer than average... And it is certainly looking wet right now!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Paul Hudson (BBC forecaster) raising the possibility of Another Cold Winter Ahead?
Hudson comments that apparently the Met Office (who now do not publish their long range forecasts for public consumption, although they do of course do them) forecast suggests a higher probability than normal of a colder than average winter. In part apparently due to a negative NAO forecast which can also deliver colder than average winters to continental Europe.
Joe Bastardi has said he will put out his detailed winter thoughts for Europe on 20 October. TWO will probably have their forecast out in the few weeks.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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My thoughts on weather:-
A negative NAO seems to be associated with a higher than average atlantic hurricane season of which this year looks to be a strong hurricane season with an ACE index of 130 already. 2005 hurricane season had the highest ever recorded ACe index of 248, followed by a bumper snow season 2005/6.
La nina ?
icelandic volcano ?
My guess would be a good season for snow this year
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Interesting piece by Paul Hudson today.
Winter 2010/2011 update: Cold and dry?
The current GFS ensembles till 21 October show temperatures very average for the time of year for much of the Alps. And very little in the way of rain.
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hmm, just checked a few GFS models which seem to indicate it nicely cooling down to below average during the next few weeks....
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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kitenski, yes [some of the] current runs seem to have it [possibly] dropping down below average around about mid of the month/FI...
Current GFS run for London has a drop of 15C from start to finish (albeit that it is quite warm right now!).
The Hauptlauf would even have some snow coming over the Alps on or around the 19th... but...
[edited in square brackets]
Last edited by You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net. on Sat 9-10-10 9:30; edited 1 time in total
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