 Poster: A snowHead
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Early seasonal forecasts always feel a bit like eating popcorn and watching the Pearl and Dean adverts at the cinema “Pa-pa, pa-pa, pa-pa, pa-pa, pa-pa-pa. Pa-pa, pa-pa, pa-pa, pa-pahhhhh…pah!"
How much relation they have to the season ahead is rather up in the air...
And not many models picked up how cold last winter was going to be in Europe.
TWO reckon September might bring some early snow to Scotland...
Then again October 2009 in the Eastern Alps last year kicked off well, before November and first week of December melted it all - then it got real cold!
Anyway ChrisWo, JAMSTEC went as far as to suggest "Heavy snowfall might occur in the Japanese coastal region facing the Sea of Japan in coming winter." 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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September cold, snow for Scotland, frost for England? [The Weather Outlook]
Last edited by Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person on Sat 21-08-10 17:56; edited 3 times in total
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Even if northern Japan got 50% below-average snowfall this Winter, it would still get more than most of the European Alps.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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theweatheroutlook flagging up possibility of temperatures in parts of Scotland hitting 0C on 31 August... (though if NOAA model above were to turn out to be correct then there is a higher probability that a cooler autumn would be followed by a milder winter).
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Certainly looks possible a little snow might fall (then quickly melt) in Alps next week as temps dip round the end of the month...
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It was snowing at the top of the Col de Galibier last week and the temp was 2c
Not the best of days to pick to cycle up it in shorts 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Certainly a (very) cold end to August in the UK and a (very) light sprinkle of snow in high parts of Scotland. Austria is actually getting a fair amount above 1800-2000m though temperatures across Europe are likely to rise from Wednesday and it will all probably be gone almost as soon as it arrives.
At present autumn, certainly in the UK, looking like it might be cooler than average with winter possibly a little warmer than average (see Netweather - flagged up on TWO - and NOAA - above, though NOAA forecast is starting to move towards slightly cooler in Europe being a higher probability compared to mid August runs).
The La Nina continues to strengthen quite quickly and Solar Cycle 24 is still being very shy indeed (how much impact either of these, especially the latter, will have is hard to tell... at least for me!  ).
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what is solar cycle 24?
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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The sun seems to move in cycles of about 11 years, broadly measured in frequency of sunspots. Last cycle (23) started to tail off in 2007 and finished in December 2008, but instead of picking up straight away, solar cycle 24, which had been predicted to ramp up very quickly, stayed stubbornly low. Indeed the last two years has seen about the lowest sunspot activity for the last 100 years.
Exactly why is something of an unknown. Earlier in 2010 it looked like it might be picking up but since then activity has actually tailed off rather than built up. Some research (see New Scientist) suggests this may have a link to weather on earth, including the NAO, jet streams and winters in Europe. On the other hand others say this is unproved and is part of an argument to undermine suggestions that climate change is man made.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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So nozawaonsen, will it be snowy in manchester on the eve of Dec 24th?
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How would I know.
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You know it makes sense.
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TheWeatherOutlook has put out their autumn forecast for the UK.
"A rather chilly and often unsettled autumn is expected, with very windy conditions at times, and several chances of early snow in Scotland, and possibly even further south later on in November."
Their summer forecast was pretty spot on.
NOAA seasonal probability forecast seems to agree on the likelihood of a colder than usual autumn in the UK (and for much of Europe), although as winter progresses it looks it might get milder in the UK. NOAA is also at this stage suggesting a slightly higher probability that precipitation will be lower than average across Europe in autumn and winter. These models are fairly broad brush obviously (and certainly as far as UK is concerned it looks like autumn could well be rather wet and stormy, especially if some of the hurricane weather heads over the atlantic...)!
Ricklovesthepowder, TWO will also be running a regular Christmas forecast from tomorrow too...
Temperatures in the alps look like will start to build and rise above average by the weekend.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Ricklovesthepowder, a Christmas forecast (albeit almost four months out!  )...
"Forecast headline
Our first Christmas 2010 forecast is for rather unsettled weather to cover the UK on Christmas day, with showers or longer spells of precipitation likely. Although we're expecting it to be chilly, most of the precipitation away from northern hills is expected to be rain. Over high ground in the north some sleet or snow is much more likely.
Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day
North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 15% - 30% (risk increases to 30% further north)
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 5% - 15% (risk increases to 15% further north)" [TWO]
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Poster: A snowHead
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Good find by you there, how the hell they know this at the moment god only knows!!!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Depending on just how the approaching low pressure develops there could be fair bit more snowfall higher in the alps (2500m plus?) middle of next week, though unlikely to be down to the valleys like early this week.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Tom W, is this a real science website or just mad people?
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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mad scientist ?
I have to say I have seen some discussion in serious looking Polish article about this, but when I looked up for English I only found this rubbish link.
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Tom W, sounds a bit bonkers to me!
(and I rather suspect we would have noticed if the temperature had dropped 10C in the North Atlantic...)
On a separate point on the other side of the world "La Nina" continues to deepen. What impact this will have if any on the UK (as has been flagged up in other forums) or the Alps is hard to judge. Last year obviously was very cold and snowy, though that occurred during El Nino not la Nina.
Previous winters *and apologies this is very much an unscientific sample:
2007 to 2008 strongish La Nina, mild across much of UK, not much snow, though a good winter in the Alps with early snow especially in Austria.
1998 to 1999 strongish La Nina, mild across much of UK, not much snow, though very heavy snowfall across Europe (and several bad avalanches)
1995 to 1996 medium La Nina, fair amount of snow in UK, very late snow in Alps.
1988 to 1989 strongish La Nina, poor snowfall in UK, awful snowfall in Alps.
[1977-78, 1978-79, 1981-82, 1990-91 all good snow years in the UK, none of them La Nina years]
1963 which was an especially cold year in the UK was however a La Nina year, 1947 one of the snowiest of last century however was not. All of which underlines that La Nina's influence (rather than say NAO) in driving the weather during European winters one way or another is hard to really identify.
Meanwhile Joseph D’Aleo (who is very much a climate sceptic so it may be necessary to aim off for that!) is suggesting:
"The winter should start out cold in central and eastern United States, Western Europe and
China. A cool summer start seems in the cards for South America. The late winter looks
very cold in Europe and western Asia, while it retreats west in the United States.
Blocking in the Arctic/North Atlantic, last year at a 60 year record level, appears to be
again a major factor." [ http://icecap.us/images/uploads/WINTER_201011.pdf ]
TWO incidentally is pressing the case for a cold snap in the UK around next weekend which could deliver some snow across higher parts of the UK as early as next week!
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Woohoo!!! Would love there to be some snow over the northern hills next weekend!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Just skipped to the end, so apologies if i have just repeated something. But i read some news that north America and Canada are supposed to have a better winter than the season just gone. And in some places it was amazing!!!! Just thought i'd tell people!!
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Still looking like a cold snap is heading towards UK around weekend - with the possibility of a little snow on the peaks... Meanwhile it is currently snowing on top of alps in Austria...
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Joe Bastardi has put forward some initial thoughts on European winter.
"My gut feeling is the core of the cold this winter.. in relation to normals, runs from the Alps to the Balkans. I dont think Great Britain is as cold as last year, more or less a normal winter. But this will be a rough winter in areas in central and eastern Europe, the interior part of the continent. That is a thumbnail sketch, a rough look. One more things, precip will be a bit below normal for much of Europe this winter."
This is again in line with several of the forecasts over the last couple of months:
- Cool centred in central and eastern Europe (including Alps)
- UK not as cold
- Precipitation in Europe lower
So good and bad. The precipitation point (which has been in a number of models all summer) could be rather frustrating - there won't be much snow without it... Cold in the Alps works though as at least it would mean snow that did snow had a better chance of staying around!
Looking to the end of the September and start of October the last four or five runs on GFS in Western Austria have seen the haupt and kontrol both flirting (at different times) with really quite a cold period... We'll see!
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if it stays cold, the snow wont melt which is good. But if it is very cold with no fresh snowfalls then that will mean some very hard packed and icy runs out there!!!
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You know it makes sense.
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Truckee dipped below freezing one night so far this season, but that was back in August.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Very cold in Manchester right now. My car said 8c!!! Tomorrow
Night is going to be colder aswell!
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Poster: A snowHead
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It was as cold as a polar bear's dick in Brighton today.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Mr Technique, i may have to use that one myself, very funny indeed!!!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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After all the hoo-haa with the ash cloud in April 'experts' claimed this would reduce temperatures in the following years.. was there anything in this or was it just bobbins?!?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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When is the next cold snap due please? Could those in the know please update us. Thanks.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Ricklovesthepowder, it will be quite chilly in the UK this weekend if that helps?
And some of the glaciers in Europe look like they will get quite a bit of snow this weekend.
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nozawaonsen, thanks. I'm off walking in the Yorkshire dales on Sunday, up near
Malham I think. Nothing better than walking on a cold day with blue skies!!!
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i am breaking from 10 years of either Valdisere or Courchevel this year, going to Morzine, god help me,well he should as he,s in my name!!!!, it,s funny as usually i bore my wife to death looking at the webcams/snow forecasts,from about october,but this year i just cannot get excited due to such a low resort height,i know its going to be a last minute dump( i know there is Avoriaz) well hoping there will be one,but as a " half empty man" i just cannot cope,wife is happy though as she is expecting me to start jumping up and down around december,she 3/4,s full,well she would be , she,s married to me!!. fingers crossed
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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phillip33, when are you going?
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phillip33, this seems to be a growing trend, I'm sure you'll be fine!
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FAQ
