 Poster: A snowHead
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I know its failings have been debated incessantly on here but it has been driving me to new levels of fustration recently. Every time I log on it seems to be predicting a massive storm. As time goes on it still predicts the same snowfall but the amount steadily drops thoughout the six its forecast. For instance the storm that was forecast to be 70cm four or 5 days ago. Its now at 17  The front coming in mid next week was originally put in at 20cm, its now down to 12. Presumbly by the time it hits it will be a meer dusting. Seen as its always the same pattern why can't they just stick a simple formula in, say, valueforecast/(1 + 4*days away). I might stop daily checking that site or even stop going on it all. Either way rant over
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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You cant go by their snow forecast amount, its never correct! No way could anyone ever give an accurate depth of the amount of snow forecast, there
are far to many variables!
Just don't build your hopes up from a forecast more than 2 days out in my opinion. I take anything after 2 days with a huge pinch of salt.
The regular posters we have on the weather thread are about the best and most realistic around in my opinion.
One thing is for sure, it will snow, rain, be sunny etc just when and where is the tricky bit.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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rambotion, why? because people, particularly skiers are willing to pay for a service that predicts snow... I personally think people would be less wiling to pay if it was cautious like you suggest. Also, you'll also ignore every time it gets it wrong the other way around (i.e. says 10cm and we get 20cm), cos that's what we do 
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| Quote: |
Seen as its always the same pattern
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No it isn't. How long have you been watching snow-forecast and comparing predicted to actual snowfall?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Quote: |
particularly skiers are willing to pay for a service that predicts snow
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I'd never considered it from that angle before, you being cynical or me being naive? Either way who does pay for it because surely everyone realises that forecasts beyond 4 days ahead are meaningless yet they give you 6 anyway?
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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ski-finder, rambotion, I have no doubt that snow-forecast just use data from GFS and crunch it like all the other sites. It is just as often wrong in a pessimistic direction about the amount of snow, as it is wrong in an optimistic direction. I say that with complete confidence having watched it all through 7 entire seasons. (that's what you call sound empirical evidence  ). To suggest that they have a separate little algorithm in there somewhere which chips in with "aw, they're getting fed up, let's get them all excited by throwing in a wild and baseless prediction" is just absurd.
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I subscribe to the paid service - it's very cheap for a season, and I find the detailed 2 day forecasts very good. I always cross-check with meteo france and meteo chamonix, and when they all agree - things are pretty clear. But yes, anyone who gets super excited one way or another about a forecast 9 days out needs to get a sense of proportion. Andto re-read that thread about how GFS works.
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pam w, I think you missed my point. The site is wholly based around predicting snow, the OP suggestion to dampened long distance forecasts seemed to me rather unlikely.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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ski-finder, I wasn't seriously suggesting that
pam w, I would be quite interestes in reading a thread on how GFS works if you could chuck me a link. Thanks
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rambotion, my bad 
GFS thread is sticky in snow reports, well worth reading. You can also find the nearest run to your resort on my site here
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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I personally think people would be less wiling to pay if it was cautious like you suggest.
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As far as I know snow-forecast is GFS based. Do you mean that there are some other models which are more "damped"? The interpretation of the data by human forecasters is surely where the "caution" or "hyperbole" is coming from in forecasts such as those quoted recently about "punishing storms" and "précipitation de barrage". I don't think there are any human brains feeding into snow-forecast. Nor has snow-forecast come up with any huge numbers recently, as far as I know, and we don't yet know who was right about that.
Only if forecasters are required to put figures on their forecasts can we really judge how good they are, I guess. If there are heavy snowfalls 60% of the time they say there's a 60% chance of a heavy snowfall, they are 100% correct.
Given the daft way people react to these long distance weather forecasts, beside themselves with joy or despair, if I were God of snow-forecast I would replace the charts, when the wigglies were all over the place, with a screen saying "Sorry, but the uncertainties are just too great at the moment to put any numbers on anything beyond 3 days (or whatever)".
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| pam w wrote: |
| God of snow-forecast |
We have angered the gods Pam with too much hype over the November snow. Now we must find a sacrifice... any young virgins on Snowheads?
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You know it makes sense.
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surely for the longer term I.e.premium service it would say this all the time
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no. Long term forecasting is always going to be potentially less reliable than short-term forecasting, because of the way weather works. But sometimes the data are such that a long-term forecast is as reliable as a long-term forecast is ever going to be (just as a short-term forecast might be either reliable or unreliable - and the better weather sites will tell you when that is). It's a huge weakness of our ordinary UK weather forecasts that they are always couched in such certain terms - it would be far better if they put a confidence indicator on their forecasts. People just want black and white stuff though, and the forecasters are always given such a ridiculously short length of time to explain. and they always have to use the same geographical areas ("south-east England") even when the shape of the weather doesn't lend itself to being carved up in that way.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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rambotion, the issue is pointed out above, if you can read the wigglies in conjunction with snow-forecast, you can make your own mind up about the likelihood. ie if the green run shows lots of snow, but all the other runs aren't showing as much, then I'd flag that as highly unlikely. If, however, all the runs agree, you can view that forecast as 'more' likely.
But as has also been said, you can get 50cm one side of a mountain, and just a few flakes on the other side, which no computer model can predict....
Cheers,
Greg
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Pretty good, is there an animation ?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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nixmap, not found one as yet, but I guess it would be easy to put together from the existing panels.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| david@mediacopy wrote: |
| nixmap, not found one as yet, but I guess it would be easy to put together from the existing panels. |
Let me know when youve finished that.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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It is not just long term snow-forecasts we were in Termas de Chilan in Chile and Snow Forecast had stated it had been snowing before we arrived and that it was dumping whilst we were there ..... bizarre considering it hadn't snowed for around 3 weeks!
Local weather reports within short time frames are by far the most accurate.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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nixmap, oh, it's not something I'll be doing
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Is it me or has the Metcheck snow forecast website died? It seems stuck on 29th October!
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queen bodecia, Metcheck died a long time ago, isn't the guy in jail?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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queen bodecia, Metcheck *was* working earlier today, but seems to have reverted to the 29th October.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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I just buy the calendar which keeps me going through the year and you get 6 months (I think) thrown in. With regard to Metcheck, it's still functioning in terms of normal weather forecasting
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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They always seem to inflate the expected snowfall which leads to dissapointment. But I see they have had a decent amount in Val D'isere and it has turned cold. Yippeee only 11 sleeps to go 
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With regard to Metcheck, it's still functioning in terms of normal weather forecasting
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Was predicting 329mph winds the other day. And heavy snow at +15C in October.
Was stuck on Oct29th for me earlier too.
I only look at Metcheck for entertainment now.
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You know it makes sense.
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They always seem to inflate the expected snowfall
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not so - they forecast under what falls just as often (and indeed have done in our area in the last 48 hours  ). It's the nature of the game.
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