 Poster: A snowHead
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Taken from Bloomberg. . .
Siberian Snow Points to Warm New York Winter, Testing El Nino
2009-10-02 14:10:53.668 GMT
By Christopher Martin
Oct. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Scant early snowfall in Siberia indicates Arctic wind patterns may reduce cold air flows into the Northeast U.S. this winter, contradicting forecasts that a weak El Nino will cause the coldest season in a decade, a climate scientist said.
“Our forecast for this winter is pretty warm,” Judah Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting at Atmospheric and Environmental Research Inc. in Lexington, Massachusetts, said yesterday at a conference in New York. “Siberian snow cover has been running well below normal.”
That disputes evidence that a moderate El Nino, or warming of Pacific Ocean currents, often brings abnormally cold air into the Northeast. Matt Rogers, a forecaster at Commodity Weather Group, this week predicted the Northeast would have its coldest winter in a decade. Both meteorologists expect a weak El Nino this season.
“I’d argue that the relationship between El Nino and temperatures in the Northeast is weak,” Cohen said. “With El Nino, you’re watching the wrong game. They’re getting El Nino right but they don’t produce accurate forecasts.”
At stake are seasonal heating costs and demand for natural gas, heating oil and electricity. The U.S. Energy Department estimated last year that consumers would spend $1,137 to heat a home for the winter. Natural gas futures in New York have gained
81 percent from a seven-year low of $2.51 per million British thermal units on Sept. 3.
Commodity Weather Group’s Rogers maintains confidence that a weak El Nino this year will create the coldest conditions for the Northeast in a decade.
Early Confidence
“For us, the foundation is El Nino,” Rogers said. “Nine cases of weak El Ninos since 1950 have resulted in a colder Northeast.” He said he’s 55 percent confident in the forecast.
“I haven’t had this much confidence this early” in the season.
Cohen said a rapid buildup of snow in Siberia this month could alter his forecast that so-called Arctic oscillation patterns will create a warm Northeast.
“In a week’s time, Siberia can get enough snow to cover the entire U.S.,” he said. “My confidence is not as high as Matt’s.”
Warming in the Pacific often means fewer Atlantic hurricanes and higher temperatures in the U.S. Northeast during January, February and March, according to the National Weather Service. El Nino occurs every two to five years, on average, and lasts about 12 months, according to the service.
For Related News and Information:
Top environment stories: GREEN <GO>
News about climate change: NI CLIMATE <GO> Most-read environment stories: MNI ENV <GO>
--Editors: Joe Link, Bill Banker.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Christopher Martin in New York at +1-212-617-5198 or cmartin11@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Dan Stets at +1-212-617-4403 or dstets@bloomberg.net.
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