Poster: A snowHead
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i recently decided to check the weather forecast 5 days before my ski trip to soll in austria, and 3 different snow forecast websites came up with a different answer for the following monday, snow-forecast said clear and sunny, zoover said cloudy with light snow showers, and j2ski said snow right down to village level, now i"ve been holidaying in mountains for many years and i know that mountain weather is very changeable, it could be sunny in one valley and cloudy in the next, but which one of the internet snow forecasters is the most reliable.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Probably the one you're happily subscribing to?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Check 5 of them at once and take an average.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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compostcorner, which ever gives the results you want
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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The one which says it will snow at night and be sunny in the day.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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compostcorner, when all the forecasts disagree wildly it's usually because the weather is particularly difficult to interpet and a tiny tweak of the computer model one way or the other gives a very different result. Butterly wings, and all that. I don't know Austrian weather, but round our way in France, Chamonix meteo is right more often than the others (and earlier this year, when I was out there and following all the forecasts carefully, meteo France was the most often wrong). If you ask locally, in resort (e.g. ski instructors) they'll probably be pretty certain about the next day, and then shrug their shoulders (or the Austrian equivalent) about anything further off. None of the weather systems are reliable more than a couple of days out, except in particularly settled periods. Doesn't stop us looking at them of course. And picking the one we like the look of...
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compostcorner, I was in Nendaz last week, and the 5-day forecast on j2ski.com was very accurate
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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none of them......look out of the window
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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I'd suggest the local website http://www.skiwelt.at/en/winter/weather-report-hohe-salve-%281829m%29.html and bergfex http://www.bergfex.com/soell/wetter/ .
You could use the GFS like red 27 suggests if you know how to read them, it helps if you follow them regularly to get a picture of what is going on, snow-forecast is derived from a snapshot of the GFS and therefore lacks much of the broader context, but if it is showing the same weather pattern over a number of readings you can probably have greater confidence in it.
Most of the forecasts beyond three days will tend to fluctuate (though if they don't then you can probably have greater confidence in them too).
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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how far in advance can you estimate the temps/snowfall etc...realistically?
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barthez1980, someone who knows will be along soon. My understanding is that you can often go out a few days for a general forecast. Chamonix Meteo have been confident this season only 1-2 days any time I've looked. Snowfall is immensely difficult to get right (at least in terms of quantity).
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You know it makes sense.
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About two to three days with some reasonable confidence, but even then there is the potential for significant fluctuation, especially in mountains. Anything further than two to three days will depend a lot, but you may well be able to see broad trends, sometimes with greater or less accuracy depending on the patterns in the forecast. The greater consistency there is in a forecast over a number of days the more confidence you can have. But it is a forecast not an absolute prediction.
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