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Global Warming Will Accelerate From 2009

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
The UK Met Office says 2009 is an inflection point, after which the world will heat up faster, due to manmade factors.

Half the years in the early next decade are predicted to be warmer than 1998, the toastiest on record:

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN0837368420070809?feedType=RSS&rpc=22&sp=true
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Whitegold wrote:
The UK Met Office says 2009 is an inflection point, after which the world will heat up faster, due to manmade factors.


I say it won't due to marmalade NehNeh
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
the missus heard that the UK would suffer an Icelandic winter on the radio today - apparently to do with the gulf stream. A scientist said there would be an energy crisis with some part of the country like Scotland, running out of gas. We would be able to ski in Sussex though, last time I did that was 1987!
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I read an article that said by 2012 we would be in a mini ice age - to do with sun spots apparently rolling eyes

snowHead
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
It's not like the Met office to get it wrong, is it..?
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II wrote:
Whitegold wrote:
The UK Met Office says 2009 is an inflection point, after which the world will heat up faster, due to manmade factors.


I say it won't due to marmalade NehNeh


That will be OK as it will also be toasty! wink
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Ah well, it looks like my prediction / bet for better skiing season than this year will be lost. We still have 10 years to find out though, so in the meantime "halten sie den mund"!
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Seriously... wink

It will be progress when someone has built up a track record of accurately predicting yearly average global temperature out to (say) 10 years.

I'm not aware of credible researchers after 1998 predicting there'd not be another year as hot for a decade, nor that the trend in the last 5 years or so would be (to all intents and purposes) flat. Of course, they may have done, but it wouldn't have made news against predictions of global castrophe, or actual disasters where gratuitous links to climate change are made. If anyone did, it would be interesting to find out what they are predicting now.

So far as the report of the Met Office work goes, it is very easy to retrofit a model to past data. For example, anyone with a half-decent mathematical education could do it for the stock market. It doesn't mean that they will necessarily make a fortune placing bets on the future trajectory of the market.

Of course, the Met Office may have made a breakthrough: their forecast may be right. In a way, I hope it is - the world needs credible long range forecasting - but only time will tell.


Last edited by After all it is free Go on u know u want to! on Fri 10-08-07 10:27; edited 1 time in total
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more green taxes on the way.. this garbage is merely the softening up process..
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Whitegold, David, your a self confessed jounalist, you ought to know better than to belive another jounalist NehNeh
II, Funny, I read it as marmalade too. Blush
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CANV CANVINGTON, I think so. And the Met Office bloke who wrote it will get an OBE.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Remember in the mid 70's they were predicting a mini iceage on the way Puzzled Look how wrong they were then Shocked
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Bones, I think by mini they must have meant the cubes that you put in a drink on a hot day like today Very Happy
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Bones wrote:
Remember in the mid 70's they were predicting a mini iceage on the way Puzzled Look how wrong they were then Shocked


That wasn't the met office that was the pentagon.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
This would appear to be at odds with other Met Office research which takes the line that the UK has done most of it's warming for the next 20 years and that things are like to be stable to slightly cooler over the next decade or so, unless there's been a substantial movement in what the research shows in the last year or so.

This in part due to natural variation in the multi-decadal phase of the North Atlantic Osscillation, it is due to move back into what should be (from Scottish Skiing perspective) the better 'cool' phase (being 'warm' since 1988) which should make negative NAO setups more common and increase the frequency of mid-Alantic and Northern Blocking as well as giving cooler zonality when zonal conditions break through. There is a school of thought that the flip co-incides with (maybe causes) a period of very unsettled or bizzare weather, such as the big October storm of 1987 and some of the storms and floods and indeed the hideous non-winter of 88/89. There's been some indications of more negative NAO situations the last year or so and a few almost decent attempts at cold zonality last winter, and some pattern matching types suggest that the severe flooding in England this summer could the 2007 equivelent of the 1987 storms, the far out severe weather that when we look back in a few years time will mark a step change just as occured in the late 80s.

Anyway there's a few ensemble members on recent GFS runs that could give some snow on the highest Scottish Tops mid to late August! The Oz season is doing very well so far and they do like to go on about their 7 year cycle down there, well thinking of 7 year cycles, 2001 + 7 = 2008! Ach we can still dream can't we? Cool
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Methane is a big greenhouse gas. I urge all snowHeads to reduce the level of methane entering the atmosphere by setting light to their farts.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Tim Brown,
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
bh1, yep, looks like he's trying to 'sneak one out'. He should be culled and burnt.
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Nevermind the seppos are ahead of the game

http://www.bearfireresorts.com/

Join the queue for a timeshare now wink
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Quote:
Utilizing environmental friendly technology, Glacier Peak will envelope you in an atmosphere that is 15 to 20 degrees cooler than the surrounding area.

hmmm...
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Quote:
Bearfire’s year-round winter theme will be made possible due to a virtual ski surface technology called Snowflex

So it's just a big dry slope really.
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FenlandSkier wrote:
Quote:
Bearfire’s year-round winter theme will be made possible due to a virtual ski surface technology called Snowflex

So it's just a big dry slope really.


Yeah - funny the graphic designers don't seemed to have captured the elegance of worn plastic, a few chavs hanging around and a kid on a moped trying to do donuts in the car park. wink
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
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Winterhighland,
Quote:

This would appear to be at odds with other Met Office research which takes the line that the UK has done most of it's warming for the next 20 years and that things are like to be stable to slightly cooler over the next decade or so, unless there's been a substantial movement in what the research shows in the last year or so.


They aren't the only ones saying this, to quote:

Quote:
The world certainly warmed between 1975 and 1998, but in the past 10 years it has not been increasing at the rate it did. No scientist could honestly look at global temperatures over the past decade and see a rising curve.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2007/07/15/do1508.xml
Dr David Whitehouse is an astronomer, former BBC science correspondent, and the author of The Sun: A Biography

Quote:
There is agreement that at the level of fractions of a degree, the earths global mean temperature is always varying, and there is widespread agreement (though with appreciably greater uncertainty) that over the past century there has been net warming of between 0.50 and 0.75C (depending on which analysis one uses). This warming has, as far as anyone can tell, been irregular, with warming between 1920 and 1940, modest cooling between about 1940 and the mid 70's, warming between about 1976 and the early nineties, and little of either since.

http://meteo.lcd.lu/globalwarming/Lindzen/on_global_warming_heresy_march2007.html
By Richard S. Lindzen, Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Atmospheric Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

snowHead
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Quote:

Half the years in the early next decade are predicted to be warmer than 1998

Finally! Some one is willing to put down some concrete predictions.

Shall we re-open this topic in 13 years to compare the prediction with actual?

Until they can predict weather of the next ski season, I'm not going to buy any of their alarmist forecast.
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Winterhighland wrote:
This would appear to be at odds with other Met Office research which takes the line that the UK has done most of it's warming for the next 20 years and that things are like to be stable to slightly cooler over the next decade or so, unless there's been a substantial movement in what the research shows in the last year or so.

The two pieces of research could be consistent, because one is about global temperature and the other about the UK climate (at least, so far as has been reported here).
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If the government wanted to do something rather than be seen to be doing something how about:
No new cars to be sold in the UK with a CO2 rating more than 150g/km – none of this tax the rich if they want to pollute
Investment in Tidal power, Hydro, Solar and Nuclear – this wind power thing which is the current beau isn’t the answer
Stop the sale of all “old” light bulbs
“A” rated fridges etc./ all white goods should be compulsory not an option.
Investment in pubic transport – fast rail network and a bus service that works.
Ban all short flights where the new improved fast rail network would be quicker.

Etc etc….

I still believe that we have very little control over what will happen but if we are to make an effort it has to be major and not farting around with smaller dustbins and the like. Major change or no change there is no middle way.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
FWIW I think airships could (should?) play a significant part in future transport. A plane doesn't use much fuel getting from A to B, it uses it to get up, get down and not fall out of the sky! The one plus point for aviation is that it doesn't require infrastructure between A and B, airships can give this without as much of the downsides, and with hybrid air-ships they can take off/land on water of very small spaces.

Cool
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II, I agree - well argued.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
II wrote:
.......Investment in pubic transport – fast rail network ........


How fast?
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
II wrote:

I still believe that we have very little control over what will happen but if we are to make an effort it has to be major and not farting around with smaller dustbins and the like. Major change or no change there is no middle way.


?incur major costs for no result? Puzzled Shocked Puzzled
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
comprex, Good point, depends if you belive the hype or not.
I was skiing for the best part of a week with a chap who was VERY high up in the met office when it was in Bracknell. When the Global warming thing came up his comment was that, yes we have global warming, the earth is coming out of a cold snap that started in 1613 and that the whole thing was cyclic and in no way out of the norm if you studied the last couple of million years Shocked
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
I'd argue, that with or without global warming, what this country desperately needs is a modern up to date rail system, and integrated public transport.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Kramer wrote:
I'd argue, that with or without global warming, what this country desperately needs is a modern up to date rail system, and integrated public transport.


Absolutely - the UK is the poor man of Europe when it comes to public transport.

snowHead
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Kramer wrote:
I'd argue, that with or without global warming, what this country desperately needs is a modern up to date rail system, and integrated public transport.

Why?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Traffic congestion, and ease of long distance travel.
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Kramer, but would investment in rail rather than road be more cost-effective?
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Travel by rail also needs a massive kick up its "pricing" backside. It is far too exspensive and far to complex to book a cheap ticket. The whole thing is a shambles.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
I can't remember what the link was or where it was mentioned but someone once posted on here a link to a public transport website that had timings for travel by foot, bus and train. I looked at a few routes at the time and came to the conclusion that private car was the most sensible option for each journey.

Public transport always sounds good in theory but for me it's extremely rare it ever works in practice.
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Quote:

Absolutely - the UK is the poor man of Europe when it comes to public transport.

In which areas are we not the poor man of Europe rolling eyes
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Peter S, the grass is always greener, eh?
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